US Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2021 (September 4th)

The line up for the second week of the US Open is going to be completed on Saturday with the remainder of the Third Round matches scheduled to be played on Day 6 of the tournament.

There are some really good matches scheduled for the day and the women's tournament in particular looks like it could produce some brilliant tennis in the final Grand Slam of the season.

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There is no doubting that this is a massive spread for a Third Round match at a Grand Slam event, but Novak Djokovic has regularly gotten the better of Kei Nishikori and many of the wins have come in dominant fashion. One of those came in Tokyo at the Olympic Games in July when Djokovic lost just two games in a straight sets win over the home player and the early form at the US Open suggests the World Number 1 is feeling pretty good about his tennis.

Novak Djokovic has not played since the Olympic Games where he lost his last two matches and missed out on a Medal, but history can still be made as he looks to complete the calendar Grand Slam. This is arguably the toughest of the tournaments to win at the end of a long season as injuries pile up, but Djokovic has looked really good in the first two Rounds and his level over recent years makes him the hard court player to beat.

It should be noted that Novak Djokovic has not always produced his best at the US Open, but it would have been very difficult to beat him last year and it was only his own petulance that saw him exit the tournament. You have to imagine that is not likely to be repeated in New York City in 2021 and Novak Djokovic won't be intimidated by the match up against an opponent he has beaten in seventeen of the nineteen previous matches.

The mental obstacle is as big as the physical obstacle that Kei Nishikori is going to have to overcome in this Third Round match. After withdrawing from the Cincinnati Masters, Kei Nishikori was perhaps going to be vulnerable in the first two Rounds in New York City as he battles with his own fitness, but he has shown enough to think he is going to be ready to compete even in this hard match up.

Kei Nishikori has needed nine sets and over six and a half hours on the court and that is not ideal preparation for facing someone like Novak Djokovic. He was a touch fortunate to beat Mackenzie McDonald in four hours and five sets in the Second Round and Kei Nishikori is going to have to serve a lot more effectively if he is going to give Novak Djokovic something to think about in this one.

Previous meetings have suggested it is unlikely to be the case for Kei Nishikori who has won just 55% of the service points played against Novak Djokovic and been broken in 39% of service games played. Those numbers take a leap in favour of Djokovic when only considering their hard court matches and Novak Djokovic won 58% of the return points played against Kei Nishikori when they met at the Olympic Games in July.

I don't think the match will be a blow out in the same manner as that match, but Novak Djokovic can find the breaks of serve he needs to produce a one-sided victory and he can cover a massive mark on his way to the second week in New York City again.

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Ilya Ivashka: With very little tennis played since reaching the Wimbledon Final and only suffering an early exit in the sole tournament between the third and fourth Grand Slam of the season, some may be wondering whether Matteo Berrettini is going to be able to perform at his best in New York City. He has looked pretty good in the first two Rounds, but the Italian needed four sets to win his Second Round match and the level moves up significantly in the Third Round.

After wins over Jeremy Chardy and Corentin Moutet, Matteo Berrettini will be facing Ilya Ivashka in the Third Round having beaten this opponent in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. The win in SW19 was impressive, but Ilya Ivashka is on a roll with straight sets wins in the first two Rounds at the US Open and the Belarusian has to be feeling like he will be much more competitive this time around.

The match at Wimbledon was dominated by Matteo Berrettini who broke serve six times and was not troubled in the slightest as he brushed Ilya Ivashka aside. However, this time Ivashka will be heading into the match on a eight match winning run having won the title in Winston Salem last week and he has only dropped a single set in that time too.

Ilya Ivashka won in dominant fashion in Winston Salem which has to be respected, but I do think this is a much tougher test for him. His record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months underlines the point and his numbers take a significant hit on both the serve and return.

We haven't seen much of Matteo Berrettini since the Wimbledon Final, but he has been playing well on the hard courts over the last two years and he is a former Semi Finalist at the US Open. His serve is a potent weapon and it is one that can keep the Italian in every match he plays, while he has become a player that is capable of beating all those he is expected to beat with the numbers backing that up.

A serve that can see Matteo Berrettini rattle through his service games only puts pressure on his opponents and over the last twelve months he has put some really strong performances together when facing players outside the top 50 of the World Rankings on the hard courts. This is another of those matches and even a slightly less than fully fit Matteo Berrettini should have the serving numbers to keep Ilya Ivashka under pressure and eventually crack the lower Ranked player.

The longer this goes the more it may favour Ilya Ivashka if his opponent is having a few fitness issues, but I think Matteo Berrettini will produce the big tennis to get through this in three or four sets.

Lloyd Harris + 1.5 sets v Denis Shapovalov: The conditions in New York City have felt pretty quick this week and with warmer weather it should give the big servers an opportunity for a strong tournament. Two of those will be meeting one another in the Third Round and there are plenty of reasons to back either Lloyd Harris or Denis Shapovalov as they look for a place in the second week of the tournament.

Both of these players are at career best World Ranking marks and a win to reach the second week could be another boost for whichever player is able to progress.

Over the course of the season you have to like the improvements Lloyd Harris has made and he has slightly stronger marks when it comes to percentage of points won behind serve and return compared with Denis Shapovalov. There isn't much to choose between the players on the serve, but Lloyd Harris has also been a little stronger when it comes to forcing the breaks of serve and I do think he is a very live underdog in this Third Round match.

Lloyd Harris has not had the same serene progress through the draw as Denis Shapovalov, but he is an Unseeded player here and that meant having to beat Karen Khachanov in the First Round. The South African barely got through in five sets, but it was an impressive performance in which he created double the break points than the Olympic Silver Medalist and the comfortable win in the Second Round should mean Lloyd Harris is well rested.

Things have been easy for Denis Shapovalov who has basically beaten two clay courters in the first two Rounds. The Canadian needed the confidence boost having had a poor summer on the hard courts with opening losses in Toronto and Cincinnati  and the 22 year old left hander still has some room to improve if he is going to start fulfilling the potential many believe Denis Shapovalov has.

He will feel that his serve gives him a chance, but Denis Shapovalov is inconsistent on the return and that may be where the difference is made between him and Lloyd Harris.

It was the case when the two players met in the Dubai Semi Final earlier this year as Lloyd Harris out-served Denis Shapovalov in a match that lasted over two and a half hours. That one went the distance with Harris moving through having won a tight final set Tie-Breaker and I do think there is every chance that this match will be an incredibly close one too.

I would not be surprised if the total games line is surpassed, but I also think Lloyd Harris is playing the kind of tennis that could see him upset Denis Shapovalov. Backing the South African with the start on the set handicap means he just needs to get to two sets to secure the victory for the selection and I think his return may see Lloyd Harris do that.

Oscar Otte - 1.5 games v Andreas Seppi: After failing to Qualify for the Australian Open, Oscar Otte has had some memorable matches in Grand Slam events already this season having lost in five sets to Alexander Zverev and Andy Murray at Roland Garros and Wimbledon respectively. Once again he Qualified for the main draw with three wins at the US Open, but this time the German Ranked outside the top 100 has taken advantage and produced two upsets.

This section of the draw has opened up thanks to a couple of upsets around him too and Oscar Otte's wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Kudla puts him in a position to reach the second week of a Major for the first time. It would also mean a big boost for the World Ranking which could put Otte into the main draw of future events going forward and this is a big opportunity for him.

At 28 years old Oscar Otte may not get many more chances to crack the top 100 of the World Rankings, although he is set to be given a new career high World Ranking at the end of this tournament. Pressure will exist knowing the opportunity in front of him, but I do think Oscar Otte has been given a kind draw in the Third Round with veteran Andreas Seppi finding his way through.

Not many would have picked Andreas Seppi to beat Marton Fucsovics and Hubert Hurkacz, but the upsets have been earned. The only downside has to be the fact that the Italian has spent almost seven hours on the court to win those matches, while Andreas Seppi had been 1-5 on the hard courts since Wimbledon before his surprising successes in this tournament.

His opponent's performances have been just as unexpected though, but Oscar Otte has momentum behind him with five straight wins having barely played in hard court matches prior to this event. Oscar Otte is clearly enjoying the conditions, but he has to be careful with Andreas Seppi who has an 11-4 record against players outside the top 100 in the World Rankings in hard court matches in 2021.

However, I do think Andreas Seppi has put a lot into this week already and he was a touch fortunate to beat Marton Fucsovics in the First Round. The poor run over the summer means confidence may still not be fully restored and expectation is a little different in this match compared with the first two he has played in Flushing Meadows.

That can create problems and Andreas Seppi has a serve that can be vulnerable, which should encourage an aggressive Oscar Otte in this Third Round encounter.

The match feels like it could be close, but Otte's momentum can see him reach the second week at the expense of the veteran and the performances in the first two matches suggests the German can do that behind a good looking win.

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Winning a big tournament can be the spark that some players need to really begin to fulfil their potential and that is what fans of Belinda Bencic will be feeling ahead of the US Open. The Gold Medal success in Tokyo was followed by a Quarter Final run at the Cincinnati Masters and Belinda Bencic's best Grand Slam performance previously came at the US Open when she was a Semi Finalist in 2019.

The two wins this week have been very strong, but Belinda Bencic will know the tournament is only going to get tougher the deeper she heads into the draw. This is a player that has been a little inconsistent on the hard courts which have prevented the Swiss Miss from really becoming a feature of the business end of the biggest events played on the Tour, but the performances over the last few weeks are hugely encouraging.

Belinda Bencic will need to be at her best against the much improved Jessica Pegula who will also be boosted by the home crowd. The American is at her career best World Ranking and she has won all four sets in New York City with just nine games given away, while Jessica Pegula reached the Semi Final in Montreal in the preparation for the final Grand Slam of the season.

She also reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open earlier this season and Jessica Pegula will have revenge on her mind having lost to Belinda Bencic in Tokyo.

That was a disappointing defeat for Jessica Pegula who was out-played, while her results have been a touch more inconsistent in the second half of the season compared with the hot start she made to the 2021 campaign. The hard courts should suit her tennis, but Belinda Bencic is playing at a high level right now and the feeling is that the higher Ranked player can frank the win she produced in Tokyo.

Conditions are different here, but Belinda Bencic looks comfortable and I do think she is serving as well she has on the Tour. That is going to be a key to the outcome of the match with Bencic's return always a threat and I think she will be able to do enough to move through to the Fourth Round with a confidence boosting win over a solid American opponent.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris + 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Oscar Otte - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers + 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 17-17, - 5.68 Units (68 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)