The second week of the College Football season begins on Friday evening and the majority of the games will be played through Saturday.
You have to love the fact that the non-Conference games are back on the schedules as teams build towards their Divisional schedule, while we have some big games between schools from different Conferences that could have a big impact on the College Football PlayOff shake up later this year.
Teams can't earn their spot in the post-season in Week 2, but you can put yourself in a tough spot with a loss and that makes every game in the regular season that much more important.
It should be another fun week, but hopefully one a little stronger than Week 1 when three late games ended up pushing me into the red. More consistency with the Picks will be needed as the season moves on, but it is good to be back.
Oregon Ducks @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Covid-19 has played havoc with a lot of lives over the last eighteen months and it had a major impact on the 2020 College Football season. We are not out of the woods just yet, but the 2021 season is expected to be a lot more 'normal' for teams and there are some big, big non-Conference games on the schedule for some of the teams chasing spots in the College Football PlayOff come the end of the regular season.
Last season the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks were supposed to meet in Eugene in the first of a home and home Series, but that game was forced to be postponed as Conferences decided to make sure that their own Championships took precedent. They will play in Columbus this weekend and the favourites to win the Big Ten and Pac-12 Championships will be looking at this one as a big opportunity to set a marker for the entire season.
Winning this game is important for both the Buckeyes and Ducks and will give them a step up on some of their rivals when the College Football PlayOff Committee put their final four on the board. Both are coming off wins in Week 1, although the Ohio State Buckeyes were more impressive when winning on the road at the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
The Oregon Ducks were also winners, but their victory over Fresno State was very competitive and they did not get close to covering the spread as the favourite. Neither team will be focused on anything but this huge Week 2 match up and I do think home advantage and having a game under their belt will suit the Ohio State Buckeyes and help them produce a big win.
The Buckeyes have to be encouraged by the way CJ Stroud grew into his first start at Quarter Back for the team in the win over the Golden Gophers. He was in a tough spot taking over from Justin Fields, who has been Drafted by the Chicago Bears, but CJ Stroud is surrounded by some huge skill players that showed their worth in the victory on the road last week.
You could understand why so many were as high on the Receiving corps at Ohio State as they have been and the Offensive Line is one that will give their Quarter Back time to make plays. That time might be clear to see if Oregon are without Kayvon Thibodeaux who is the top name on the Ducks Defensive Line and if he cannot go, I think CJ Stroud will be able to back up and perhaps even top his Week 1 performance.
Oregon gave up some big plays through the air in their win over the Bulldogs, while it is going to be a big challenge for the Defensive Line in trying to control the line of scrimmage against the Ohio State Offensive Line. If the Buckeyes can open the same kind of holes as they did against Minnesota, Ohio State will have the Offensive balance that should see them push the ball up and down the field and give them the edge.
However, covering the spread will depend on whether the Ohio State Defensive unit can improve from what was a slightly disappointing performance against the Golden Gophers. Before a major injury to Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota were running the ball pretty effectively, although the lacklustre performance of the Oregon Offensive Line last week is a little concerning.
I expect better from the Ducks in this game and I do think the Offense will have success against an inexperienced Ohio State team that will be growing into this season. You don't want to take too much from one game and I do think Oregon will be better on this side of the ball than they were in the win over Fresno State, but Ohio State will have learnt plenty about themselves from their own Week 1 experiences.
This should be a game in which both Oregon and Ohio State will have Offensive success, but being at home should be enough for the Buckeyes to make the plays to pull away in the second half. The Buckeyes have tended to be too strong for teams coming out of the Pac-12 and they have a 12-2-1 record against the spread in the last fifteen against teams from that Conference.
Oregon have never beaten Ohio State, while the Ducks are 1-5 against the spread in their last six as as road underdog of more than three points. With the Ducks also being 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven against non-Conference opponents, I think the Ohio State Buckeyes can win this one by a slightly wider margin than the one they produced last week and move into a position to be one of the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOffs even after just two weeks of the regular season.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: I was pretty high on the Indiana Hoosiers going into Week 1 of the College Football season, but the Iowa Hawkeyes care little for reputations and expectations. They blew out the Hoosiers at home and even with a single game on the board, you may consider Iowa as the favourites to be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game as the leading team in the Big Ten West Division.
The Hawkeyes will head back into Divisional play next month and they will be keen to do so as an unbeaten team after finishing 6-2 last season. The team have not had a losing record since 2012, but this is the non-Conference game that every single Iowa fan will be wanting to win more than any other.
Winning the Big Ten Championship would give Iowa every chance of making the College Football PlayOff and they are a Ranked team.
For the first time ever, the Hawkeyes will be taking on their in-State rivals Iowa State Cyclones with both teams in the Rankings and the latter have to be massively respected. There are plenty out there who will feel the Cyclones are still trending in a positive direction coming off a 9-3 season and they may be right in amongst the favourites to win the Big 12 Championship and perhaps force their way into the College Football PlayOff.
So there isn't just a rivalry on the line on Saturday, but the winning team will deal their rivals a big blow in looking to secure a spot in the PlayOff and that has only intensified the feeling around the game. Having the 2020 meeting cancelled will have only increased that and I do think this is going to be a close, competitive game with very little between them.
Iowa State did not look so good in their own Week 1 win, but they were not playing FBS opposition and the feeling is that Head Coach Matt Campbell would have made sure a vanilla game plan is the only video the Hawkeyes have of their team in 2021. With 11 starters back on the Offensive side of the ball, Iowa will know what the Iowa State Cyclones are capable of, and they won't want to read too much into the performance in Week 1.
The Cyclones have a very productive Offensive unit and they have some of the top Receiving corps and Offensive Line in the nation. Add in Brock Purdy at Quarter Back and you know how good this Iowa State team can be, but the Hawkeyes have a tremendous Defensive unit and the belief is that they can keep their hosts in check for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.
The Hawkeyes have an Offensive Line that is capable of giving Spencer Petras plenty of time at Quarter Back and with 7 starters back, Iowa should be as close to the levels they showed last season on this side of the ball. Like their rivals, Iowa State have a tremendous looking Defensive unit and they also have 9 starters back on this unit which gave up just 21.4 points on average in 2020.
It feels like this game has all of the makings of a close, low-scoring one and that makes the points with the underdog look appealing. I love the look of the Iowa State Cyclones, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are no slouches and they have won the last five in this rivalry.
I have to respect the fact that Iowa State have been a very strong home favourite to back when they are being asked to lay fewer than seven points, and they have covered in the last nine in that spot. The Hawkeyes have a poor 1-7 record against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog too, but my overriding feeling is that this is going to be a really competitive game between rivals and a Field Goal may be enough to separate them at the end of the contest.
Having more than three points for the underdog looks like too many points and I will look for the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit to make enough plays to contain the powerful looking Iowa State Cyclones. That should give the underdog the chance to keep this one close and I will take the points on offer here.
Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: These two schools were former rivals in the now defunct Southwest Conference and in the coming years the Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks will be renewing that rivalry when the former join the SEC along with the Oklahoma Sooners.
This game would have been arranged before the seismic news a few weeks ago that the Longhorns and Sooners were going to be leaving the Big 12 to join the loaded SEC, and it may just increase the importance of the game for all involved. Perhaps that is the reason that Arkansas are about to enjoy their first home sellout since 2017 and the Razorbacks will be hoping a raucous atmosphere can rattle their visitors.
Both Arkansas and Texas have opened the season with good looking wins and that should mean both squads are going to be playing with some confidence. Sam Pittman had guided Arkansas to a 3-7 record in his first season with the team, but 9 starters return on the Offensive unit and 10 on the Defensive unit and that has raised some expectations even if they are playing in a tremendously tough SEC West.
Things have changed in Austin too with the Longhorns deciding that Tom Herman's 32-18 record over four seasons with Texas was not good enough. A big time appointment was made with Steve Sarkisian taking over as Head Coach following a couple of solid years as Offensive Co-Ordinator with the Alabama Crimson Tide, and the new Head Coach has been left with some big talents on both sides of the ball.
There is an expectation that there will be some learning to cover for the Texas Longhorns, especially as they have a new Quarter Back, but Hudson Card impressed in Week 1. This is a much sterner test for the young Quarter Back in a tough environment, but he is surrounded by some real talent in the Running Back and Receiving units, while the Offensive Line can replicate the successes they had in 2020.
It makes it a tough challenge for the Razorbacks Defensive unit, but there is some real expectation that this could be one of the better Defenses we have seen in Fayetteville for a long time. Slowing down the Texas Longhorns will be difficult, especially when you factor in the knowledge Steve Sarkisian has of the SEC in general, and that will put some pressure on the home team to try and keep up.
There is every chance that Arkansas can do that with the Texas Longhorns having some issues to deal with in their Secondary. They may have a number of returning starters, but the Longhorns had a tough time Defensively in 2020 and the Razorbacks are expected to be much better Offensively now that Sam Pittman has had more time to work with his team compared with his first season in the job.
Like Texas, Arkansas have a young Quarter Back, but KJ Jefferson struggled in the opener and he will have to start much better in this one if he is going to keep hold of his job. The Defensive unit picked up the slack for the Quarter Back struggles, but Arkansas should have some success on the ground which can at least offer Jefferson a little more time to attack the weakness of the Texas Defense.
It is not easy to be confident in the Arkansas Offensive unit after a rough opening week, but I do think this is a tough place for a young visiting Quarter Back to play and that is something Texas are going to be facing up to. It may contribute to this game being closer than some may think and a couple of mistakes from Hudson Card could see the Razorbacks move into a position to cover.
Even with little time working with his players last season, Sam Pittman did lead Arkansas to a 3-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog. With more time to work with those players, I think the Razorbacks will be competitive when being underestimated, although Texas are the better team.
Arkansas are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve as the underdog and even a strong record as a road favourite for the Texas Longhorns would have been with a much more experienced Quarter Back. The Longhorns may do enough to win in Fayetteville, but the Razorbacks are good enough to keep this within the handicap mark as the home crowd helps the players produce a big performance.
Missouri Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The SEC West may be the stronger of the two Divisions in this Conference, but in recent seasons the SEC East has been getting closer and closer to the likes of Alabama and LSU. In 2021 it looks like the East is going to bring the heat, although the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers will have to find something special to challenge Georgia and Florida for a place in the SEC Championship Game.
Both teams only won five games in the shortened 2020 season, but the Kentucky Wildcats are returning 12 starters this time around and Missouri are bringing back 14. The expectation is that both teams will be improved this season and especially Kentucky who look to have a stronger Offensive unit and one that could be tough to stop both on the ground and through the air.
You don't want to get carried away by one game, but Kentucky looked much better on this side of the ball in their blow out win against an overmatched opponent. This will be a far greater test for new Quarter Back Will Levis, but he will also be enthused by the spaces the Tigers had in the Secondary as they get to grips with a new Defensive Co-Ordinator and his schemes as Steve Wilks has spent recent seasons putting things in place in the NFL.
I have to believe that Missouri will be stronger defending the pass than they showed last week and it may also have been a case of not wanting to put too many schemes on film against an opponent they would have expected to beat. At the end of the day the Tigers produced the win, but Will Levis may be able to have a strong game for the Wildcats and especially if the Kentucky Offensive Line can open up the running lanes against the strong Missouri Defensive Line.
It was another aspect in which the Tigers struggled last week and I do have to like the chances of Kentucky being able to move the ball with some confidence in this one.
The key for Kentucky is the Defensive side of the ball and they certainly look like having the players that can contain what may be a transitional Missouri Offense. The Tigers are going to be more experienced having had a full summer working with Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz who will be calling his own plays, and there were certainly some signs of that in the win over Central Michigan in Week 1.
Missouri lost a top Running Back to the NFL in the last Draft, but the Offensive Line looks like it could pave the way for some solid numbers on the ground. Tylar Badie took advantage of the holes the Offensive Line opened up for them, but this week the Tigers will be facing a Kentucky Defensive Line had a big performance last time out and have a number of players touted for big things amongst their performers.
Some key players have moved on to the NFL and it will be interesting to see which of these teams can win at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball which may end up being the determining factor between a win and a loss.
Revenge will be on the minds of the Wildcats having lost as a 3.5 road favourite at Missouri last year, although that result means the underdog has covered in five straight games when these two teams have played one another.
However, Kentucky tend to play much better at home and they are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen here, while they are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite. At the same time Missouri have struggled as a road underdog and the Tigers are just 7-20 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games overall.
With a new look Offense looking like it could push the Kentucky Wildcats back into a winning record after the disappointment of 2020, I think Mark Stoops will guide his team to a successful revenge mission. The spread will be competitive with a backdoor cover a possibility, but I will back the Kentucky Wildcats to do enough to win and cover here.
Washington Huskies @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: I have said many times that you can't put too much stock into one result, but the Washington Huskies were embarrassingly beaten by Montana at home last week. It is not only the loss, but the Huskies managed just 7 points despite entering the season with some huge expectations on their shoulders.
Some have tipped them up as the team to beat in the Pac-12 North, but Washington were guilty of overlooking their opponent and perhaps focusing on this game instead. That alone is not a good enough excuse, but Washington were not helped with three of their Receivers being absent through injury and with Ja'Lynn Polk banged up during the game.
Rome Odunze and Terrell Bynum cannot come back quick enough with their statuses set as day to day, while Polk is almost certainly ruled out for this game. Without some of the top names on this unit, Dylan Morris had an awful game at Quarter Back with three Interceptions thrown to propel the loss to Montana.
Even then Dylan Morris may feel he can have a bounce back performance against the Michigan Wolverines who may have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball, but who had an awful 2020 with some very disappointing numbers.
It is all well and good saying the Wolverines looked good in Week 1, but they are facing a much better opponent this time around and some of their younger players will have to show what they have learned. I do think the Washington Huskies have been prepping for this game all summer so Dylan Morris should have a better outing, especially if one or two of the Receivers mentioned above return.
If they cannot return, Washington will have to rely on their Defensive unit to make up for the Offensive woes and this is a team with 8 returning starters from 2020. The Secondary looks strong, while they are expecting to be much improved when it comes to stopping the run, although both aspects will be challenged by this Michigan team.
The Wolverines are under pressure to show their improvement after a poor 2020, but they have 10 returning starters and an experienced Quarter Back in Alan Bowman, who transferred from Texas Tech. It was actually Cade McNamara who got the nod in Week 1 and he has had some experience guiding the Michigan Offense from 2020, while the start to the season was steady if unspectacular this time around.
However, it was not all good news out of Week 1 as Ronnie Bell has been lost to a season ending injury and there is no doubting the impact this will have on the Michigan passing game. Facing the Huskies Secondary will be much more challenging for Cade McNamara this week and I do think the underdog may show more bite as they look to remind other teams they are far better than their opening performance.
Washington's Defensive unit can keep them in this game even though it is tough to oppose Michigan as the home favourite under Jim Harbaugh. The Big House will be rocking for this game which will make it difficult for the Huskies, but the Wolverines Offensive unit are not easy to trust right now in their development and especially not against a Defensive unit like this one.
As bad as Washington were last week, the focus would have been on this game and I expect key Receivers to be available which can only boost Dylan Morris against what may be an inconsistent Michigan Defensive unit.
The Huskies are a team that can bounce back from losses, while Michigan are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games. They are also 1-10 against the spread in their last eleven games against teams from the Pac-12 and I think there is every chance that Washington can get the better of the public who have been pounding Michigan at the window.
With a full Touchdown start, I am looking for a Huskies performance that is much more in line with what would be expected of a team that may have been considered the top team in the Pac-12 North before a ball had been thrown.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
NC State Wolfpack - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 26 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
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