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Wednesday 8 September 2021

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2021 (September 8th)

The Semi Final line up will have already begun to take shape before Day 10 of the US Open, but the remaining Quarter Final matches will be played today.

There looks to be some big matches coming up in both the men's and women's tournaments that are going to be concluded this week and I do think both events still have an open feel to them.

Novak Djokovic is the favourite to complete the calendar Grand Slam, but both Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev have been playing at an extremely high level and will be dangerous (I am writing this before any of the Quarter Final matches have been played).

The former of those two players has beaten Novak Djokovic in a big match already this summer and he looks to be on a collision course with the World Number 1 as both are set as big favourites to see off the competition in the Quarter Final.

It is Aryna Sabalenka who is favourite for the women's title at the US Open, but I could make a relatively strong case for all of the last eight left in the draw. Mental strength is going to be just as important as the tennis these players can produce with only one of the eight players left having won a Grand Slam title before and those tensions can see some upsets and strange results and performances being produced.

I am looking forward to the end of the tournament, the last really big event on the tennis calendar before the Tour Finals at the end of the season, and I do think we should see plenty more excitement before the trophies are raised this weekend.


Belinda Bencic - 1.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Neither of these players have dropped a set at the US Open, but the headlines are being made by the 18 year old British sensation Emma Raducanu who has reached the Quarter Final as a Qualifier. That alone would be something that would have gotten the media a little excited, but the manner of her wins in the Third and Fourth Round against experienced opponents has only cranked the hype machine into overdrive.

To be fair to Emma Raducanu, she deserves all the praise she has been given for the dominant wins over Sara Sorribes Tormo and Shelby Rogers. To lose just four games in four sets to those two competent hard court players has to be respected and the British player has to be playing with a confidence that is going to be very difficult to dent.

Even a nervy start against Shelby Rogers that saw Emma Raducanu 2-0 down was only the prelude to winning eleven straight games to take complete control of the match and this is a dangerous player. The serve is very effective, but the aggressive return means Raducanu is creating a host of break points and ultimately breaking through the defences of her opponents.

This match may be a little different if the Olympic Champion Belinda Bencic continues to perform at the level she has been beginning with the success in Tokyo. Her four wins at the US Open have been behind some exceptional serving and that is going to be key for the Swiss player who is a former Semi Finalist at the US Open and a player who will believe she is ready to win the biggest title of her career.

Belinda Bencic has been slightly more consistent when it comes to the serve throughout this tournament and that is a key for her- she won't want to allow Emma Raducanu to get her eye in considering how aggressive and impressive she has been on the returning side of things.

As good as Emma Raducanu has been and as much as the numbers are extremely eye-catching, I do have to say that Belinda Bencic has the 'stronger' wins in the tournament having beaten two players Ranked higher than the highest Ranked player the British player has beaten. The win over Iga Swiatek in the Fourth Round was a very good one for Belinda Bencic and I do think her experience may just see her over the line in this one, although Raducanu is going to be very difficult to contain throughout the match.

The feeling is that the youngster may have produced her best tennis of the tournament and this is a big step up from the players she has beaten, albeit with little fuss to suggest it is a step up Emma Raducanu can make. However, I think Belinda Bencic is extremely confident right now and I think her serve may be the more effective on the day which sees her narrowly edge past a player who is going to jump to a career high World Ranking and become a top player on the Tour for years to come.


Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: You want to get through matches at a Grand Slam as serenely as possible to make sure there is enough left to deal with the business end of the tournament and that is going to be a big question for Maria Sakkari to answer. She needed all but one minute of three and a half hours to beat Bianca Andreescu in the Fourth Round and it was a match that Maria Sakkari could have easily lost on another day.

Her three early wins in New York City have been fairly routine, but spending that amount of time on the court and now having to face another top player on the Tour is a big ask for the Greek player. I do think it is going to play a part in this one, while Maria Sakkari has perhaps been a little fortunate to move through a couple of matches here where her opponent has earned more break points than she has.

The win over Andreescu was a very close one and you do have to wonder if the former US Open Champion's body let her down in the final set when she had been leading. That isn't to say Maria Sakkari could not have turned things around anyway, but it certainly helped and she is going to have to produce a big serving day to get the better of Wimbledon Finalist Karolina Pliskova.

The Czech player has enjoyed a strong summer on the North American hard courts too and Karolina Pliskova has looked pretty good in the last two Rounds as she looks to peak over the coming days at this tournament. She has been steadier than Maria Sakkari in the tournament and has not matched the levels that her opponent reached when beating Petra Kvitova, but steady may be enough for Karolina Pliskova to reach another Grand Slam Semi Final.

Both players can be a little erratic when it comes to the return on the hard courts and we have seen signs of that in this tournament too, but that is where Karolina Pliskova's consistency behind her own serve may make the difference. She should be far less fatigued than Maria Sakkari too which should keep the arm relatively loose and I think that is going to be a major factor in the outcome of this Quarter Final.

The players have split two previous matches, but both have been played on the clay courts and the last of those was over two years ago.

Those should not be relevant to this match, but I do think the form has been with Karolina Pliskova and the long, long Fourth Round match that went deep into the New York City night might have hurt Maria Sakkari's chances of progressing to a second Semi Final at Grand Slam level in 2021 of her own. As long as Karolina Pliskova can bring her strong serving to the court, I think she will find the chances to break the Maria Sakkari serve and can overcome this handicap mark in the Quarter Final too.


Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Matteo Berrettini: The Wimbledon Final was played a little under two months ago and we are going to see a repeat of that when Novak Djokovic takes on Matteo Berrettini in the US Open Quarter Final. This will be the third Grand Slam in a row that these two top 10 Ranked players will be meeting one another and I think that says a lot about the consistency that both have been playing with throughout this calendar year.

No one will be surprised to read that about Novak Djokovic who is now three wins away from completing the calendar Grand Slam and perhaps cementing his place as the best tennis player of all time. The World Number 1 looks like he is going to be the favourite to win any tournament he enters, but some of the young guns on the Tour will be looking to make a statement through the remainder of this tournament.

Novak Djokovic has played well in New York City, but he has dropped a set in three of the four matches he has played and needed to rally from a really poor start when overcoming young American Jenson Brooksby in the Fourth Round. To be fair to Novak Djokovic, he was a comfortable winner by the end after dropping the first set 6-1, and the level he is producing is going to mean someone has to find an exceptional performance to prevent him winning this Grand Slam title.

A player like Matteo Berrettini is capable, but the Italian has struggled to stay with Novak Djokovic in all three previous matches. His consistency on the Tour has to be highly respected and Matteo Berrettini fully deserves his spot in the top 10 of the World Rankings, but he is just 1-5 in his matches against top 10 Ranked opponents this season and that is the next step he will be looking to take in his development as a player.

There is plenty of foundation to build upon though and the big server will feel that gives him a chance in any match he plays. However, Matteo Berrettini has only broken in 8% of return games played against top 10 Ranked opponents in 2021 and he wins less than 30% of return points played which makes it very difficult to beat those players.

In the three matches played against Novak Djokovic since November 2020, Matteo Berrettini has barely scraped over the 6% mark when it comes to breaks of serve and that is simply not going to cut it for him. The serve has been one that Novak Djokovic has broken down too and I think it would be a big upset for the top Seed to be beaten here despite the Ranking that his opponent holds.

With that in mind I am not surprised that the layers are asking Novak Djokovic to cover a big spread against Matteo Berrettini and it is a mark he is capable of overcoming. However, I do think Matteo Berrettini has been serving well enough to cause some problems for Novak Djokovic and it has to be noted that he has taken a set off of him at both the French Open and Wimbledon, even though he has largely been outplayed in both of those matches.

That may be the value in this Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic has dropped a set in three matches already in the tournament, but it shouldn't need more than four sets for the World Number 1 to move into another Slam Semi Final.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Lloyd Harris: There was some concern that Alexander Zverev may have injured himself in his warm up for his Fourth Round win over Jannik Sinner, but he looked relatively comfortable on the court during the match. With a day of rest between that match and the Quarter Final, I think Alexander Zverev will be good to go and I do think this is a very winnable match for him.

Take nothing away from Lloyd Harris who has made it his business to secure upset wins throughout the US Open as he reaches his maiden Quarter Final at this level. He has deserved his spot in the last eight and the South African is performing at a very good standard which means he deserves to be respected.

However, this is another step up from the players he has been beating of late and Lloyd Harris is going to have to play a near perfect match if he is going to get the better of a top 5 Ranked opponent. The serve has been an important shot for Lloyd Harris and it has helped him loosen up and play aggressively on the return with some good numbers against players like Denis Shapovalov and Reilly Opelka not be ignored.

He is going to need that kind of returning against Alexander Zverev too who has been putting down very strong numbers on his serve and who has largely been untroubled. Jannik Sinner created seven break points against him in the Fourth Round, but the Italian was only able to force a single break of serve and Alexander Zverev continued his run of producing double digit break points in each match at the US Open.

The German has momentum behind him after a very successful summer and I do think he is going to have too much for Lloyd Harris with their previous matches suggesting that is likely to be the case.

Both have been won on hard courts by Alexander Zverev including in Cincinnati last month and both have bee relatively one-sided by the end. The meeting in Cincinnati saw Alexander Zverev dominate the serving numbers and eventually that saw Lloyd Harris crack in a 7-6, 6-2 defeat.

In those matches, Alexander Zverev has now held serve in 90% of the service games played compared with Lloyd Harris' mark of 70% and over a best of five set format I would expect the higher Ranked player to underline those figures. The Lloyd Harris serve has worked well in the last three Rounds, but none of those players are as strong as Alexander Zverev when it comes to the return and I do think the Olympic Champion can make relatively serene progress to the Semi Final and a potential rematch with Novak Djokovic.

This is a big mark if Lloyd Harris is serving at his ultimate best, but it is a new experience for the South African playing at this level and with greater expectations of him and one that many have struggled to deal with. If Alexander Zverev is feeling close to 100%, he should have too much all around tennis for Harris to deal with and can cover this handicap on his way through to the Semi Final at the US Open for a second year in a row.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 32-28, - 1.06 Units (120 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

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