NFL Week 1 Picks 2021 (September 9-13)

It feels like a long time has passed since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team to win the Super Bowl in their own Stadium, but the 2021 NFL season is ready to this week.

The new 17 game season is set to begin in the same Stadium where the 2020 season was concluded and I will place my Week 1 Picks in this thread. I will have my season predictions in the Week 2 post and with the Power Rankings and that is largely down to time constraints this week preventing me putting together a longer thread, but that should not be the case ahead of Week 2.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Injuries are always a big factor in the NFL and it was injuries which meant the Dallas Cowboys finished with a disappointing 6-10 record in the 2020 season. Head Coach Mike McCarthy had a tough start with the Cowboys and was not helped by the Covid-19 pandemic which meant walkthroughs had to be completed without players in the building, but that all changes in 2021 and the Dallas Cowboys are playing in a weak Division in which they can bounce back from the challenges of last season.

The Head Coach is going to want a season in which the key Offensive players are not absent for as long as they were last season- Dallas had to use four Quarter Backs in 2020- and Dak Prescott is set to go in Week 1. There have been some concerns about his health, but he has been practicing this week and at this point it would be a massive surprise if the Quarter Back is not leading the Dallas Offensive unit.

Last season Dak Prescott looked like he might be on the path to producing some huge numbers, but the injury cost him the season and there will be some caution from the fans about where Prescott may be in his recovery. He is surrounded with some good players in the skill positions, but there is one major problem for Dak Prescott ahead of this game.

For a few years the Dallas Offensive Line has been one of the strengths of the entire team, but Zack Martin is on the Covid list and his participation is a doubt. La'el Collins is questionable too, although Tyron Smith is expected to start, and that may mean the Dallas Offensive Line is a little weaker than they will be when the likes of Martin, Collins and Smith are all on the line together.

It will be a real test of the reserves to control the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball, especially against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team off a Super Bowl win and having all of their starters back both on the Offensive and Defensive unit. The pressure the Buccaneers managed to get up front against an injury hit Kansas City Offensive Line in the Super Bowl underlines their ability and the kind of success they can put together in this game as the Buccaneers look to celebrate their Super Bowl win on the same ground where they won their rings.

The Buccaneers Defensive Line were stingy against the run and they will feel they can contain Ezekiel Elliot, while the numbers against the Secondary were as much to do with teams having to throw to keep up with Tampa Bay and because of the inability to move the ball on the ground against them. Dallas have some exceptional Receivers who can make plays for Dak Prescott, but those are all the harder if the Quarter Back is scrambling from trouble while trying to keep his eyes on the prize down the field.

All of the starters are back on the Offensive side of the ball too as I mentioned and Tom Brady showed age is just a number when leading the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl last season. After a slow start, Tom Brady and Bruce Arian did manage to get on the same page and the Offense picked up their level, while Tampa Bay went 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games.

Tampa Bay scored at least thirty points in their last seven games and having the same skill players back can only benefit Tom Brady and the rest of the Offensive unit. There are big expectations of the Buccaneers this season after the successes of 2020 and this looks to be the perfect opponent on which the Buccaneers can make an Offensive statement.

A new Defensive Co-Ordinator has been appointed by Dallas, but Dan Quinn will need some time to find the right systems for the Cowboys. There were some teething problems for a young Secondary in 2020 and much is going to depend on how much they have grown from their experiences, but Dallas are facing up to a powerful Offense in this one.

The Defensive Line did not help as they struggled to control the line of scrimmage and you can see Tom Brady and his team-mates being able to do what they like as they look to remind the rest of the NFL that they may be the team to beat again.

Tampa Bay have covered in their last six at home and three of those came in the situation of being the favourite.

They are also facing a Dallas Cowboys team who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog and I do think Tampa Bay will have too much scoring for their visitors in a party atmosphere as the fans return to pay tribute to their Super Bowl Champions. A backdoor cover is a concern with the spread where it is and with a Dallas Offense that can be very good when Dak Prescott is at his best, but the Offensive Line issues suggests the Buccaneers can make enough plays on both sides of the ball to open the season with a win and a good looking one too.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)