The US Open has gotten underway, but I won't have the results from the Day 1 Tennis Picks until the early hours of Tuesday morning (for those of us in Europe).
I will update the opening results, but for now you can read my thoughts on Day 2 and the selections I am making as the First Round is completed.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Holger Rune: The World Number 1 is back after taking a few weeks off following his exploits at the Tokyo Olympics. There are some doubts surrounding Novak Djokovic who is looking to cement his name in the history of the sport by completing a calendar Grand Slam following successes in Melbourne, Paris and London before this event is played in New York City.
Winning a fourth consecutive Grand Slam would also take Novak Djokovic ahead of both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer as it would mean a twenty-first Major to add to his collection, but that brings a pressure of its own. The Serb has won this tournament three times previously, although that also means there will be plenty of hopes for the rest of the draw and especially with Novak Djokovic looking like he was struggling physically by the end of the Olympic tournament.
Missing out on Toronto and Cincinnati means there are some uncertainties around Novak Djokovic, but he does play a Qualifier in the First Round here. That should give him every chance of easing himself into the tournament, although Djokovic will be the first to admit that it would be foolish to overlook Holger Rune with the three wins behind him.
Those three wins did come against players Ranked Number 175 and lower and it is a marked step up towards Novak Djokovic and the World Number 1 position. Holger Rune will have to try and play his tennis and get on the front foot on the court, but the 18 year old Dane is going to be in a situation that he has yet to truly experience on the Tour.
The younger player has won thirteen matches in a row, but the large majority of those have been played on the clay courts. Holger Rune has plenty of experience in taking on top 100 Ranked opponents on that surface, but he has only won 60% of the points behind serve and I do think taking on someone like Novak Djokovic may see Rune fall away over the course of the best of five set format.
This will be the first time Holger Rune has played in this format and I do think Novak Djokovic can cover a very big number even if he has to make a slightly slower start into the tournament. The Dane should offer some early resistance, but my feeling is that Novak Djokovic will begin to turn the screw by the middle of the second set and that should see the World Number 1 announce his intentions to win the US Open with a good looking First Round performance.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Sam Querrey: There has been a worrying legal issue behind the scenes which have been harder and harder to ignore as Alexander Zverev has continued to win the big titles. The World Number 4 has his own representation dealing with things and so far those legal issues have not prevented him from producing his best tennis over the last several weeks.
Last year Alexander Zverev was beaten in the US Open Final despite leading Dominic Thiem 2-0 in sets, but he has managed to use that experience to try and strengthen and improve his performances. This year I do think Alexander Zverev will have plenty of fans backing him to win the title and I do think he can be considered the player in the best form along with Daniil Medvedev.
Alexander Zverev won the Gold Medal at the Tokyo Olympics and he has backed that up by winning the Cincinnati Masters and an eleven match winning run means all of the momentum is behind him. The German has also been producing much stronger numbers on the hard courts in 2021 compared with 2020 when reaching the US Open Final and I do think it is going to take a big effort to stop him over the next fortnight.
The US Open can produce plenty of upsets though and so it is very important for Alexander Zverev to be fully focused from the off. His opening opponent has experienced success in the US Open previously and being a home player, Sam Querrey is expected to have plenty of support coming from the stands.
However, Sam Querrey has only produced a really disappointing 2-7 record on the hard courts in 2021 and he has lost six matches in a row. The American has suffered opening Round defeats in Los Cabos, Atlanta and Washington and Sam Querrey has only broken in 7% of return games played on the surface in 2021 which puts him under immense pressure to keep holding serve.
At 33 years old, Sam Querrey is a veteran of the Tour and his service numbers have dipped slightly in terms of percentage of points won. As I have mentioned above, the failure to get into return games has put pressure on Querrey who has held 84% of the service games played on the hard courts and I do think it is going to be very difficult to imagine him earning the upset here.
Alexander Zverev has won both previous matches against Sam Querrey and both on the hard courts, although the two players have not met since 2019. In that match, Zverev saved the single break point he faced and he was able to find a couple of breaks of serve in a straight sets win.
I think he is much improved now and I think Alexander Zverev's 28% break percentage in return games played on the hard courts in 2021 will likely see him find the breaks in this match to cover this handicap mark. I can see one of the sets being quite competitive, but I then believe Alexander Zverev will get his eye in on the return and can find around three breaks of serve which should be enough for comfortable passage through to the Second Round.
Gael Monfils - 6.5 games v Federico Coria: After a rocky start to 2021, Gael Monfils looks to have rounded into some form ahead of the US Open, although not many will be expecting the veteran to truly be around at the business end of the tournament. That isn't to say he can't have an impact in the event, and Gael Monfils has looked pretty happy and content with his approach to the US Open.
A 4-2 record in the two North American hard court events that were played this month won't exactly set the pulses racing, but Gael Monfils will be pleased with his level shown. The returning part of his tennis has not let Gael Monfils down, but over the last month there has been a significant uptick in the points being won behind serve which is leading to more holds and ultimately meaning he can move into a position to win matches.
That is very important for a player who will be slipping down the World Rankings unless he can have a strong end to the 2021 season. Putting some wins on the board at a Grand Slam will help in that respect and Gael Monfils is rightly a considerable favourite to beat an opponent who is much happier on the slower surfaces.
Federico Coria has hit a wall a little bit since playing the top Tour players on a regular basis over the last twelve months and his hard court numbers are not great. The Argentinian has a 2-5 record on the hard courts and he has held just 66% of the service games he has played on the surface, while breaking in 18% of return games faced.
In Australia, Federico Coria was beaten in a comfortable three sets by Milos Raonic and I do think his serve is going to be put under pressure by a returner like Gael Monfils. He may have a little more success on his own return compared with the overall hard court numbers, but Federico Coria will need to find an exceptional performance to win this match and I am not sure he is going to be able to compete over the best of five set format.
Gael Monfils has played well on the hard courts in his career and I think the performances over the last month have been very encouraging. Now he should be able to move forward through the First Round with a relatively comfortable victory on the scoreboard as Federico Coria perhaps struggles to look after his own serve well enough to get within this handicap number.
Sebastian Korda - 4.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There have been some concerns with the way the ATP have handled some of the allegations made against some of their players on the Tour and one of those is Nikoloz Basilashvili. His story may not get the same attention as Alexander Zverev's, but Basilashvili is another player who perhaps should have been given some kind of reprimand by the Tour.
Ultimately it will be something that may need to be addressed if Alexander Zverev or Nikoloz Basilashvili have a big tournament, but that would mean the latter has upset his First Round opponent.
You don't always knos what you are going to get from Nikoloz Basilashvili on the hard courts- the Georgian has won a big title in Doha on the surface, but he has also suffered opening losses in a number of other tournaments played on the hard courts. That includes a First Round loss at the Cincinnati Masters and his 11-10 hard court record also sees Nikoloz Basilashvili produce inconsistent numbers.
Nikoloz Basilashvili has only held 72% of the service games played on the hard courts, but he has been able to break in 29% of return games which has offered him a chance to win more matches than he has lost. However, it is going to be a big challenge against Sebastian Korda who is a young American who has shown considerable improvement on the Tour over the last twelve months.
With a home crowd likely to be firmly behind Sebastian Korda, I expect a better run from him than we have seen in Washington and Cincinnati. Defeats to Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas is nothing to be overly concerned about, while Sebastian Korda has held 81% of the service games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.
Like his opponent, Sebastian Korda has also been productive on the return of serve and I do think his edge behind his own serve is going to give him every chance of moving past Nikoloz Basilashvili.
I have to respect the fact that Nikoloz Basilashvili has played well at the US Open in the past, but he has lost his last three Grand Slam matches played on hard courts. That includes a straight sets loss at Flushing Meadows in 2020 and the same occurring in Melbourne earlier this year and I do think Sebastian Korda's serve can prove to be the difference between the players and see the young American cover the handicap mark.
Aslan Karatsev - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: A stunning first half of the 2021 season has helped Aslan Karatsev move up to World Number 25 in the Rankings and he is one of the Seeded players at the US Open. Things have become a little bogged down for Aslan Karatsev over the last several weeks, but this is a player who is very comfortable on the hard courts and he should have every opportunity of progressing behind a good win in the First Round in New York City.
The numbers remain strong, but those are largely based on the run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and winning the title in Dubai. Aslan Karatsev is just 1-3 over the last few weeks as he took part in the Tokyo Olympics, Canadian Masters and Cincinnati Masters, but the defeats have come against decent hard court opponents.
In those four matches, Aslan Karatsev has still shown he can be a productive return player on the surface, but his serve has really let him down. In the early hard court tournaments of 2021, the Russian had held 83% of service games played and had won 67% of the points played behind serve, but those have dropped to 61% and 55% respectively over the last four matches played.
It is a concern going into the US Open and it would be a surprise if Karatsev is able to match the performance in Melbourne, but I would expect him to have too much for Jaume Munar who has not had a hard court season he would have wanted. The Spaniard did not make the trip to the Australian Open and so his only hard court matches have come in Cincinnati and Winston Salem over the last two weeks.
Jaume Munar has a 1-2 record in those two tournaments and his loss in Winston Salem was particularly worrying. He has not played badly on the hard courts in his career, but it is clear that Munar favours the slower clay courts and the fact is that the Spaniard has only ever won two main draw matches in Grand Slam events on this surface.
Both of those wins came against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and Jaume Munar is 0-5 in hard court Grand Slam matches against those inside the top 100. Jaume Munar has held 64% of the service games played and he has broken in 15% of return games played in those matches and I do think Aslan Karatsev should be able to produce a good victory in this First Round contest.
He will have to ride out some difficult moments with the serve not performing to the level he would have wanted, but Aslan Karatsev should have enough from the return of serve to work his way to enough breaks to cover this mark.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 3-3, - 0.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
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