Something of a roll was being put together in a season when the Tour begins to resemble something like normality despite the continued problems being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, but I need to have a couple of strong days to turn this week back around and look for a third tournament in succession producing a positive return.
We are into the Third Round of the Canadian Masters at both the events in Montreal and Toronto and the entirety of that Round will be played on Thursday. It will be the Quarter Finals taking centre stage on Friday before both events are completed over the weekend and the ATP and WTA Tours join together for the last major tournament before the US Open begins later this month.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: The Big Three of the ATP Tour are all missing for the next two Masters events on the North American hard courts and that will offer a real opportunity for players to pick up a big title and plenty of momentum to take into the US Open later this month. The final Grand Slam of the season may be a really open event considering the issues Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are dealing with and the chance to win a Major is something that every player on the Tour should be looking to grasp with both hands.
In recent years the US Open has been the most open of the Grand Slam tournaments on the ATP Tour and the likes of Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem have all ended up Champions here in the last seven runnings of the tournament.
Roberto Bautista Agut and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will meet in the Third Round in Toronto looking to showcase their own abilities to win a big event and both are better hard court players than may be expected. The two have had solid runs in the past, but only one of them can build on the early momentum they have earned here having received a Bye in the First Round and so winning a single match each to reach the Third Round.
A couple of poor showings in European clay court events while many took the chance to play at the Olympics may have knocked Roberto Bautista Agut's confidence, but he was a comfortable winner over Tommy Paul in the Second Round. The Spaniard has been the more consistent hard court player compared with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Roberto Bautista Agut will have a similar ability to get into the long rallies and feel he can outwork his opponent.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will believe the same, but there is a marked difference in the ability of the two players to hold serve on this surface. Both are decent return players, but it is Roberto Bautista Agut who can find a way to hold onto his serve a little more effectively than Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and that may help him edge through to this Masters Quarter Final.
Two years ago Roberto Bautista Agut got the better of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in Canada, albeit in Montreal rather than in Toronto where this Third Round match will be played. The Spaniard doubled the amount of break points created compared with Schwartzman on that day and I do think his return ability can see him edge past the Argentinian in this tough looking Third Round match too.
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Gael Monfils: A Lucky Loser might be considered a player that is vulnerable in the main draw of any tournament, but Frances Tiafoe is a gifted tennis player who has yet to put it all together to find the consistency he would like. The American has taken full advantage of taking Sebastian Korda's place in the main draw and two impressive wins have moved him through to the Third Round in Toronto.
The second win was particularly notable as Frances Tiafoe beat home hope Denis Shapovalov and dominated the match to underline the kind of tennis he can play when at his best. The problem for Tiafoe has been to maintain that kind of level through multiple matches, but he has played four matches here this week and that should mean he is fully in tune with the kind of conditions he will see.
Backing up a big win can be difficult for those players further down the World Rankings, especially as Frances Tiafoe is going to have bigger expectations to win this match than he did against Denis Shapovalov. A couple of seasons ago it is unlikely that Tiafoe would have been the favourite, but Gael Monfils has had a very difficult twelve months and there are signs that the Frenchman is on the downward turn of his career.
Gael Monfils was a good winner over John Millman in the Second Round, but his World Ranking will take a major dent when the Tour returns to the twelve month format shortly. The Number 24 Ranking feels too high for Monfils and a 4-10 record in 2021 underlines the point about this veteran losing his way.
Before the win in the Second Round, Gael Monfils had lost all three previous matches played on the hard courts and that includes at the Tokyo Olympics at the end of last month.
Neither of these players has been particularly impressive on the return of serve, but Frances Tiafoe has held 80% of the service games played on the hard courts this season compared with Gael Monfils' 70% mark and that is a huge difference relatively speaking. The American has also been slightly more productive on the return of serve and I think Frances Tiafoe is deserving of his spot as the favourite.
He can also look back fondly on his sole previous meeting with Gael Monfils which saw Frances Tiafoe win in straight sets at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2019. Back then Gael Monfils was the stronger hard court player, but I feel he has slipped and Frances Tiafoe is still a steady enough force on this surface to win and cover in this Third Round match.
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: A Bye in the First Round and a Walkover in the Second Round has seen Hubert Hurkacz move through to the Canadian Masters Third Round without playing a single shot. He disappointed at the Tokyo Olympics, but Hubert Hurkacz will be looking to build on his earlier Masters success when winning in Miami on the hard courts.
That was a significant moment in his career, but Hubert Hurkacz will have had even more people sitting up and taking notice after reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final last month. That run included beating both Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer and the tall Polish player has shown enough on the hard courts to suggest he will be a potential threat in New York City.
There will be a bit of a learning curve with a first match in the conditions, but Hubert Hurkacz will have been in Toronto for a while and that won't be an excuse ahead of the Third Round match. A couple of titles have been won on the hard courts, but Hurkacz will be looking for more consistency after a number of early defeats in other tournaments have prevented him from really pushing up the World Rankings as he would have liked.
Winning in Miami is big though with many considering that Masters tournament as the 'fifth Major' in previous years and I think that is encouraging for the Pole. His numbers on the hard courts have been pretty impressive too in 2021, but you do have to wonder if those are sustainable for him.
I do feel this Third Round match is an opportunity for Hubert Hurkacz, although Nikoloz Basilashvili is a pure example of a player that can be incredibly hot one week and then disappear from the business end of tournaments for a number of weeks after that. The Georgian had a really poor hard court season in 2020, but he has been stronger in 2021 and his wins over Jenson Brooksby and the crushing of Alex De Minaur here in Toronto have to be highly respected.
The problem for Nikoloz Basilashvili is that his serve can be a weakness and that should offer Hubert Hurkacz an opportunity to earn the breaks to move past him. Nikoloz Basilashvili has held in just 72% of service games played on the hard courts and that puts pressure on the return, a pressure that will be hard to manage against someone who is capable of serving as effectively as Hubert Hurkacz is when at his best.
There is a talent in Basilashvili that has to be respected, but I can see Hubert Hurkacz serving well enough to force the break down of the Georgian's service game and it should see the Miami Masters Champion come through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Canadian Masters Update: 6-7, - 4.76 Units (26 Units Staked, - 18.31% Yield)
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