It was a pretty miserable Thursday which has dented the weekly totals, but the Cincinnati Masters will continue on Friday with plenty of Quarter Final action to come across both the ATP and WTA events.
This is a big chance for players to lay down a marker for the US Open and all sixteen players heading out onto the courts on Friday will feel that is the case. There are some good looking matches to come and I am looking for a much more effective day for the Tennis Picks to try and secure a fourth winning tournament in succession.
Felix Auger-Aliassime + 3.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Two of the brightest stars on the ATP Tour will meet in a big Quarter Final at the Cincinnati Masters on a day when Rafael Nadal withdrew from the upcoming US Open. Novak Djokovic is yet to return to the court after his two losses at the Olympic Games which left him without a Medal, and that could mean there is a vacuum to be filled at the top of the next Grand Slam.
It is a vacuum that the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to fill and this is a tournament from which they can gain a huge amount of confidence. Winning a Masters on a fast hard court just days before the US Open gets set to begin would be huge for either player and the performances so far this week have been very impressive.
Both players have dropped a set on their way through the draw, although Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to play one fewer match thanks to his superior World Ranking.
The numbers from both players have been really impressive with Felix Auger-Aliassime holding 88% of his service games played and the young Canadian has faced just two break points on his way to beating Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini. Those are two very good looking wins for Auger-Aliassime who has also got his eyes firmly where he would want them to be when it comes to the return of serve with 30% of those games ending in a break.
It is unlikely that Felix Auger-Aliassime will have things as good as that when he faces the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve. The hold percentage is at 96% for Stefanos Tsitsipas in the faster conditions of Cincinnati, although those same conditions have made it difficult when it comes to the return of serve as Tsitsipas has only managed a break in 15% of those return games faced.
The feeling is that this could become a serve-dominated match, while Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he has the mental edge having won the last three hard court matches competed against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only one of those wins has been straight-forward though and Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 84% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 85% mark in the head to head on the hard courts.
There may not be much between them on the day in this Quarter Final and so it feels like a lot of games for the Canadian to be given as the underdog. I think Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing well enough to maybe steal a set and even the upset cannot be completely ruled out, but taking the games on offer just means a little more leeway for the younger player against a quality opponent like Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has been the stronger returner of the two players so far this week and it may be enough to keep this close.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: This looks like a really good match on paper as the Olympic Champion takes on a player that won three consecutive titles on the Tour since Wimbledon came to an end. Casper Ruud won those titles on the clay courts, his favoured surface, but he had played well in Toronto and backed that up with another strong week in Cincinnati.
Alexander Zverev did not play in Toronto after winning the Gold Medal in Tokyo behind some exceptional tennis, but he has not missed a beat. The competition early in Cincinnati may not be up to the level that Zverev will see in the remainder of this tournament, but you cannot take anything away from the German who has been dominant in his wins over Lloyd Harris and Guido Pella.
He reached the US Open Final last year and blew a 2-0 lead, but Alexander Zverev will be looking to head to New York City with a lot more momentum behind him. The faster conditions in Cincinnati has seen him yet to face a break point on his serve, while Alexander Zverev has been able to use the scoreboard pressure to aid him in breaking in 31% of return games played over the first two matches in the tournament.
That will mean there is some pressure on Casper Ruud who is on the brink of breaking into the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has had a strong season on the hard courts already. His serve has also been a potent weapon for Ruud on the hard courts, but he has not returned nearly as well as Alexander Zverev with 20% of return games ending in a break of serve.
The Norwegian player has won 33% of return points played compared with Zverev's 39% mark and I do think that is going to be the difference between the players on the day. Both will feel the serve can be a huge weapon for them, but Alexander Zverev looks capable of getting into the return games with a lot more consistency than Casper Ruud.
Casper Ruud was well beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas in Toronto and, before his win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Third Round, he had lost five consecutive matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts heading into this tournament. As much as I like Casper Ruud, it is hard to ignore the fact he has yet to beat a top 10 Ranked player on the hard courts and, even worse, he has yet to take a set from them.
I expect Alexander Zverev to have a little too much all around for Ruud in this Quarter Final too and I will back the German to cover the handicap mark as he keeps his winning run going.
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The winners of the last two Grand Slam tournaments are meeting in the Quarter Final in Cincinnati and there will be plenty of people who would be happy to back either Barbora Krejcikova or Ashleigh Barty to add another Major to their trophy cabinet at the US Open.
The rise of Barbora Krejcikova continues to impress and she has become one of the harder players to beat on the WTA Tour. Winning the French Open underlined her progress, but it would have been easy for the Czech player to move in the same direction as so many first time Grand Slam Winners and struggle with the weight of expectation on her shoulders.
That has been far from the case for Barbora Krejcikova who has reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and been beaten by the eventual Winner of that tournament as well as the Olympic Gold Medal around another title success in Prague. Her performances this week have been very, very impressive and the serve has been a particularly strong weapon for her.
I do think that will be tested by the World Number 1 and Wimbledon Champion Ashleigh Barty who has comfortably seen off her first two opponents in Cincinnati. The win over Krejcikova on her run to the Wimbledon title will only increase the confidence of the Australian and Ashleigh Barty has also been serving well well in the faster conditions of Cincinnati.
The second serve can be one that is vulnerable and I think that will help Barbora Krejcikova, although Ashleigh Barty has been the superior return player in this tournament. Those return numbers have been consistently stronger than Barbora Krejcikova's on the hard courts and I do think Barty is a deserving favourite, although this could be a tough number of games to cover for the favourite.
When they met at Wimbledon, Ashleigh Barty did beat Barbora Krejcikova by a five game margin, but it was a much more competitive match than that. It was the Czech player who earned the majority of the break points on the day and I think she is playing well enough to at least make this match closer on the scoreboard even if Ashleigh Barty is ultimately able to come through with a win.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Two veterans of the WTA Tour and multiple time Grand Slam Champions will be looking to keep a strong week going which could set them up to be one of the dark horses for success at the US Open. There isn't much that Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber won't know about one another as they get set for a sixteenth professional match against one another and there hasn't been much to separate them with Kvitova leading 8-7.
They have split one match each in 2021, but those have been played on the clay courts (Petra Kvitova won in straight sets) and on the grass (Angelique Kerber won in three sets).
Both players are very competent on the hard courts which makes this another potentially close match to call, but I do think Petra Kvitova has been playing the superior tennis so far this week. All three matches have been won in dominant straight sets and Petra Kvitova's tennis has been in very good shape in both the serve and return departments.
Angelique Kerber has dropped a set in each of her last two wins and she has had to dig much deeper than Kvitova in her own run to the Quarter Final. No one will be surprised to read that Kerber has been returning effectively in the tournament, but the serve has been vulnerable and the German has faced an astonishing 29 break points in her last two matches.
She was a little fortunate to get past Elina Svitolina in the Second Round and Jelena Ostapenko created the same amount of break points as Angelique Kerber in the Third Round with only the superior tennis at big moments helping Kerber through to the Quarter Final. There is no doubt that Angelique Kerber is going to have to serve a lot better when facing someone like Petra Kvitova who can be very aggressive on the return and will feel the faster conditions allows her to hit through Kerber here in Cincinnati.
It was Angelique Kerber who won their sole meeting in Cincinnati, but that was back in 2012 and it is Petra Kvitova who has won the last two hard court matches these two have competed in. The last of those came in 2019 which makes them largely irrelevant, but you can't ignore the fact that Petra Kvitova has been the stronger hard court player of the two in 2021 in general, while also producing the superior tennis over the last week.
That could be important for the Czech player and I think she gets the better of this southpaw battle in the Quarter Final and can cover the handicap on the way through to the next Round.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Update: 9-10, - 4.88 Units (38 Units Staked, - 12.84% Yield)
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