The Tennis continues at Cincinnati on Wednesday and the Second Round matches are all set to be completed over several hours.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: Early defeats in Tokyo and Toronto have been far from ideal for Andrey Rublev, but he will be looking to put down a marker in Cincinnati before the US Open begins in less than two weeks time. The Russian has won a title on the hard courts already this season and he has reached three other Semi Finals, while Andrey Rublev has previously had success at the US Open too and that should offer him plenty of encouragement.
However, with all that being said, Andrey Rublev will be under pressure to put a strong run in the books in Cincinnati to build the confidence for the final Grand Slam of the season. Roger Federer is confirmed to be missing, while Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic both could be limited and that will mean there is an opportunity for someone like Rublev in what has been the Slam with the most surprising winners during the Big Three era.
It was a close loss in Toronto last week, but Andrey Rublev is going to have to deal with another big-serving opponent in Cincinnati and that will make his life difficult. However, in previous meetings against Marin Cilic, Andrey Rublev has shown enough of an impact in the return games to be encouraged.
His own serve is a big weapon on the hard courts and that should give Andrey Rublev an edge, especially as he has managed to hold 89% of his service games played on the hard courts compared with Marin Cilic's 80% mark.
Andrey Rublev also has the stronger return game, but Marin Cilic is coming in off an upset win over Aslan Karatsev and the former US Open Champion has also been very competitive over the last month with a couple of three set defeats behind him. That competitiveness is going to be important for Marin Cilic if he is going to earn another upset on Wednesday, but the previous matches against this Russian opponent have to be a worry.
It is Andrey Rublev who has won the last three matches between these players and those have all been on the hard courts including in Miami earlier this year. Andrey Rublev has faced five break points in those three matches, but he has created thirty-five opportunities and the Russian holds a clear advantage on the numbers behind both serve and return.
That is important in his first match in Cincinnati in 2021 and I do think Marin Cilic will struggle to deal with the returning pressure. He showed admirable resilience in the win over Aslan Karatsev, but Andrey Rublev may be a level above his compatriot and he can find the breaks of serve to cover this handicap on the way through to the Third Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: Both of these players have already enjoyed some strong successes during the US Open Series and that should mean two confident players are taking to the court on Wednesday.
While Mackenzie McDonald reached the Final in Washington at ATP 500 level, Daniil Medvedev underlined his potential as a Grand Slam winner next month by winning the ATP 1000 event held in Toronto. For a long time Daniil Medvedev has considered the hard courts to be his strongest surface and his win in Toronto after reaching the Australian Open Final earlier this season has to offer the Russian World Number 2 an immense amount of confidence.
He won the Toronto Final on Sunday and there is not a lot of time for recovery as Medvedev arrives in Cincinnati, but this has been a good match up for him and one that can help ease him into the tournament.
Mackenzie McDonald has a First Round win under his belt in Cincinnati, but he was beaten relatively easily by Benoit Paire in Toronto. His run in Washington has to be given a lot of respect considering some of the names that were in the draw, but the American was fortunate to avoid the majority of those and did not face anyone Ranked inside the top 48 in the World before the Final where McDonald was beaten in three sets by Jannik Sinner.
The numbers produced by Mackenzie McDonald on the hard courts have to be respected, but they take a serious dip when he has been presented with a top 50 Ranked opponent. He is 3-5 in those matches on this surface and McDonald's hold percentage drops from 83% to 80%, while the break percentage falls considerably from 25% to 16%.
Now he has to take on Daniil Medvedev who has a serve that is a huge weapon on the hard courts, but also a player that is very capable of getting into the return games to build pressure on opponents. The long run in Toronto is a slight concern with the little time to recover and move onto a new tournament, but Medvedev is used to going deep in Grand Slam events and he has had two full days off before being asked to return to the court.
As mentioned before, the head to head is heavily skewed in favour of Daniil Medvedev who has won all four previous matches against Mackenzie McDonald. Their first meeting was competitive, but Medvedev has won the last three with something to spare including in a straight sets win over McDonald at the Australian Open.
Daniil Medvedev has held 86% of his service games played against Mackenzie McDonald on the hard courts, but the more impressive number is the 46% of return games in which he has broken the serve. Take out the first competitive match, and Daniil Medvedev has broken in 53% of return games against this opponent and I do feel only fatigue can prevent him from winning this one with something to spare too.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman v Frances Tiafoe: Both of these players looked good coming through First Round matches in Cincinnati, although Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was a favourite to progress and Frances Tiafoe has upset the odds again.
He continues to be one of the more frustrating players to read on the Tour with average numbers producing average results, but Frances Tiafoe is a player that is capable of producing something special on any given day. That helped him deservedly beat Ugo Humbert in the First Round and last week in Toronto he upset Denis Shapovalov, but Tiafoe can sometimes struggle when he feels there is an expectation around him.
Frances Tiafoe has held 80% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021 and he has broken in 21% of the return games he has faced. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but the service numbers remain steady even when the American faces competition from inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
The problem for Frances Tiafoe is that his return is erratic at best, although he will feel he can get his teeth into the Diego Sebastian Schwartzman service games.
The Argentinian has had plenty of success on the surface in the past though and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is also putting together a decent 2021 campaign on the surface. He may be happier on the clay courts, but Schwartzman's numbers certainly look like he could have the edge in this Second Round match in Cincinnati even on what is usually a very quick hard court.
Unsurprisingly it is the Schwartzman return of serve which makes him most dangerous and he will feel he can into the Frances Tiafoe serve in this match too. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has broken in 36% of return games played on the hard courts and the number actually jumps to 38% when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent on the surface.
It could be the key to the outcome of this match with some swings in momentum expected.
However, I do think Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can scramble through enough service games to be able to apply the pressure on Frances Tiafoe and I will look for him to do enough to move through to the Third Round at the expense of the home player.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Update: 2-2, - 0.68 Units (8 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
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