A strong Wednesday in the Second Round has turned this week around into a positive position, but the teeth of this tournament has yet to be negotiated.
The Tennis Picks from Cincinnati can be read below as the Third Round matches are completed on Thursday in the final big event before the US Open.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Winning a big tournament in Toronto might have been enough for some players as they begin to turn their attention to the final Grand Slam of the season, but Daniil Medvedev has not reached World Number 2 with that kind of attitude. Instead he came out in Cincinnati and crushed Mackenzie McDonald in the Second Round in under an hour and now Daniil Medvedev is looking for another Quarter Final at a big tournament being played on the hard courts.
The Third Round brings a tough match against Grigor Dimitrov, although the veteran has been struggling for consistency in 2021. His two wins in Cincinnati will have given Dimitrov a boost of confidence to take into the remainder of the tournament, especially as the Bulgarian has seen off Roberto Bautista Agut and Alexander Bublik who can both be effective on the hard courts.
However, Grigor Dimitrov is likely going to be the first to admit that he will have to be a lot better if he is going to compete with someone who has become a permanent feature of the top 10 of the World Rankings. Early losses in Washington and Toronto made it hard to believe that Grigor Dimitrov could enjoy the kind of run he has been on in this tournament, but the conditions may be more to his liking.
In saying that, Grigor Dimitrov is going to be facing a monster serve from the other side of the net and it will be going into a return game that can be erratic at best. Earning break points from Daniil Medvedev on this surface is a huge challenge and that will put pressure on Dimitrov's own serve as he looks to build scoreboard pressure on the higher Ranked opponent.
I do have to expect Daniil Medvedev to use his superior return to do that the other way and once he gets himself into the rallies you do have to believe the big hitting Russian can get on top of Grigor Dimitrov. The backhand is likely going to be targeted and Daniil Medvedev has won the last two matches against this opponent with both of those being played on the hard courts.
Daniil Medvedev beat Grigor Dimitrov at the US Open, but that was two years ago and I do think the former is much improved these days. While this is a big mark, I think Medvedev is capable of finding the breaks of serve to get on top of it as long as he serves to the kind of level he is able to produce.
The quick finish of Mackenzie McDonald can only help Daniil Medvedev in his recovery after the title win in Toronto and he can move through to the Quarter Final with a couple of breaks more than Dimitrov in this Third Round match.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: You could see some positive signs coming out of Gael Monfils' tennis in the last month or so after what has been a very difficult 2021. It is important for the veteran to try and keep that going to avoid a massive World Ranking drop in the near future and it is a good time for Monfils to turn his form around with very little to defend in term of points in the next three months before the end of the season.
His win over Alex de Minaur in the Second Round might be as good a victory as Gael Monfils has earned throughout 2021, although it should be noted that the Australian has not really looked himself after a bout of Covid-19. That has hindered Alex de Minaur, but Monfils can only beat what is in front of him and he will be feeling pretty confident off the back of consecutive wins in Cincinnati.
The challenge increases massively from the first two matches as Gael Monfils is set to take on Andrey Rublev in the Third Round. The younger player has moved into the top 10 and long looked more than that on the hard courts, while Andrey Rublev will be feeling pretty good about the manner in which he turned around his Second Round match to overcome another veteran in Marin Cilic on Wednesday.
It has been a disappointing month for Andrey Rublev to this point having lost early in Tokyo and in Toronto, but he has produced some incredibly strong hard court numbers in 2020 and 2021 and it is only a matter of time before he produces another deep run on this surface. This may be the week for Andrey Rublev to do that and I do feel his serve is going to be important in what is usually fast conditions in Cincinnati.
Gael Monfils is capable of being a very effective return player, but his issue is going to be in maintaining concentration when he is serving himself. He has struggled for consistency behind that shot and now Gael Monfils has to take on Andrey Rublev, a player capable of being very aggressive on the return to break down the tennis of his opponent.
Their sole previous meeting was also on a hard court and it was won by Gael Monfils in comfortable fashion, but that was back in 2018 and Andrey Rublev has moved beyond the veteran Frenchman now.
As long as Andrey Rublev serves well, I do think his aggressive return will put Gael Monfils under pressure and the Russian can move through to the Quarter Final with a cover for a second match in succession.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: There is no doubting the improvement we have seen from Stefanos Tsitsipas over the last twelve months and the World Number 3 has to be a legitimate contender to win the US Open which will begin later this month. He has yet to win a title on the hard courts in 2021 which may lessen the enthusiasm of those getting behind him to win the final Grand Slam of the season, but Stefanos Tsitsipas can put a strong run on the board in Cincinnati to build some confidence.
He secured a good looking win over Sebastian Korda in the Second Round and Stefanos Tsitsipas is a strong favourite to get past Lorenzo Sonego in the Third Round. The Greek player was a Semi Finalist in Toronto last week before being upset by Reilly Opelka and Stefanos Tsitsipas has had poor runs at Wimbledon and the Olympic Games by the standards he has set for himself to reach a career high World Ranking.
The serve remains a very big weapon for Stefanos Tsitsipas and it is likely to be a huge part of the reason he is able to win this match and reach another Masters Quarter Final. The main reason that Stefanos Tsitipas has found more consistency in his performances is the clear improvement when it comes to the return of serve and that is going to be important when taking on his Italian opponent in the Third Round.
Lorenzo Sonego is also at a career high World Ranking of Number 25 and he has become a pretty consistent threat on all surfaces which has helped that improvement. The Italian upset Carlos Alcarez Garfia in the Second Round, while Lorenzo Sonego has a very strong serve which will always give him a 'get out of jail free' card if facing break points.
That has led to Lorenzo Sonego holding 84% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but his main issue has been the struggles to break serve. I fully expect him to have those difficulties in this match against Stefanos Tsitsipas who beat Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets in Miami earlier this year and did not have to face a single break point on the day.
There is no doubt that the margins are going to be tight between these players and Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to have to focus when he does get into the return games. However, the higher Ranked player has shown he is capable of doing that and I think it will see Stefanos Tsitsipas get the bette of Lorenzo Sonego and find the breaks he needs to cover what is a very wide handicap mark on paper.
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: This is a rematch of a Wimbledon Quarter Final which was won by eventual Runner Up Matteo Berrettini and you do have to wonder if the little tennis between then and now will impact the Italian. He admitted himself that he started slowly in his Second Round win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, but Matteo Berrettini was rolling by the end and that makes him a deserving favourite in this Third Round match.
He takes on Felix Auger-Aliassime who continues to show a little too much inconsistency on the Tour and that has prevented him from surpassing his career best Number 15 World Ranking. That is a strong World Ranking, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has shown enough to think he should be a regular top ten player in the years ahead, although he has yet to really stamp his authority on the Tour.
Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final, but he has suffered disappointing early losses in Tokyo, Washington and Toronto as he heads towards the US Open. The win over Marton Fucsovics will offer the Canadian some encouragement that he is still on the right track to have a big impact at the final Grand Slam of the season, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has not really reached the heights he had early in the season and the numbers have taken a significant slump since the Australian Open.
While Felix Auger-Aliassime has a 12-8 record overall on the hard courts, he is 5-6 since the Australian Open and the Canadian has seen a significant drop in his service hold percentage and break serve percentage since playing in Melbourne. In recent seasons there has been an inconsistency in the Auger-Aliassime performance on the hard courts and I do think that will offer encouragement for Matteo Berrettini who has won the two previous meetings between the players.
Both of those have come on the grass courts, but the serve has been a big weapon for Matteo Berrettini. That serve has seen the Italian hold over 91% of the service games played on this surface in 2021, and Matteo Berrettini has also found a way to get into return games perhaps aided by the strong serving to build some scoreboard pressure.
I think that will be the direction this Third Round match takes and Matteo Berrettini has had a real serving edge in the head to head with Felix Auger-Aliassime. It may be the case again on Thursday and I will look for Matteo Berrettini to work his way past this opponent and cover the handicap in the victory.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Update: 7-3, + 5.12 Units (20 Units Staked, + 25.60% Yield)
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