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Friday 27 August 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 3 Picks 2021 (August 28-29)

I am going to be having a really busy week in the lead up to the final Premier League weekend to be played in August 2021, but I have managed to put a thread together which can go live on Friday.

Ultimately I am someone that usually loves to wait to make his transfers so I can have the full information of the week behind me, but that has not been the case this week.

After the international break things should settle down considerably.


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: There were some surprisingly strong teams selected by Premier League clubs playing in the League Cup Second Round, but some of those were understandable as managers looked for a bounce to take into the final Premier League fixtures of August.

After a very difficult start and with the pressure mounting, Mikel Arteta picked a very strong Arsenal team for the Cup tie at West Brom. The home team had a complete overhaul of their usual eleven and Arsenal took advantage as they hammered West Brom 0-6 to give the squad a boost.

Goalless and pointless after two Premier League games, Mikel Arteta needed a big result if only to ease the pressure ahead of this fixture. It is probably the one game that Arsenal would not have wanted to play after their poor start in the League and there are still some key players missing which only increases the difficulty in trying to earn a result at the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City snapped a rare 3 game losing run in their win over Norwich City and it was a surprise to see the Champions fail to score in any of those defeats. Missing out on Harry Kane is a blow, but Pep Guardiola will feel his team is capable of finding a person to lead the line from within the squad and Manchester City showed they can cope in that situation for much of last season.

I do think it makes Manchester City potentially vulnerable in their defence of the title, but this is a team that can create plenty of chances in their current mould. I expect that to be the case against Arsenal who allowed Chelsea to dominate proceedings in their final third, although at least they won't be facing a striker like Romelu Lukaku to bully the defence this weekend.

Even then, Manchester City should be comfortable going up against the system that Mikel Arteta is trying to implement at Arsenal. This is a squad of players that know their roles and Manchester City have been very strong at home under Pep Guardiola.

Both Premier League games between the teams were tight last season, but Manchester City had won the previous 3 home games against Arsenal pretty comfortably. I think that could be the case this weekend too and I expect Manchester City to win by a couple of goals in the early kick off on Saturday.


Aston Villa v Brentford Pick: Thomas Frank is likely to be much happier than Dean Smith with the opening points on the board, but the latter will have seen his Aston Villa team rally from the opening defeat to Watford.

That will be pleasing for Dean Smith and the squad can now begin to move on past Jack Grealish and his move to Manchester City. A comfortable win over Barrow in the League Cup Second Round was almost expected, but it is Aston Villa's win over Newcastle United at Villa Park in the Premier League which will have shown the players they can cope with their top player from last season and even build on their successes of the last campaign.

Aston Villa are back in front of their own fans this weekend, but they will want to show a little more creativity in their play. Penalties have been scored in each of the first two Premier League games, but Dean Smith will want to see more chances being created overall.

It is going to be a real test to do that against a Brentford team who have kept clean sheets against Arsenal and Crystal Palace in their first season in the Premier League. Thomas Frank has organised his team very well and they have limited the amount of chances being allowed, but Brentford are still finding their feet as a consistent attacking threat and it will perhaps leave them a little vulnerable away from home.

The Bees will look to press their opponent and they have played well enough in the Premier League in the first couple of games to think they can perform at this level. They also have a little more consistency in the squad which means players are much more comfortable with the roles they are being asked to do and that could make things difficult for their hosts.

However, I do think Danny Ings is a huge signing for Aston Villa and he is a difference maker in the final third. His finishing is proven at this level compared with Ivan Toney for Brentford and I think Danny Ings can make the difference on the day with a slight lean for Aston Villa to earn another home League victory.

It will be far from easy and Brentford are not going to lie down for any opponent they face, but Aston Villa have plenty going for them and I think being at home will prove to be the key towards the three points.


Brighton v Everton Pick: There is plenty to be excited about for both Brighton and Everton fans after the early performances in the 2021/22 season and both teams will be confident they can earn a positive result to take into the upcoming two week break.

Last season Brighton seemingly lacked confidence in the final third which prevented them from operating much higher up the League standings. Graham Potter is confident in his philosophy and the Brighton players have responded with two good wins to open this season, although they were perhaps a little fortunate to beat Burnley on the opening weekend.

This is a team that plays some very good football and Brighton do create chances, but they will know Rafael Benitez is likely going to have Everton pretty well organised.

We have yet to really see that from the Spanish manager when you note that Everton have failed to produce a clean sheet, but The Toffees have restricted Southampton and Leeds United to few really good chances. That has to be encouraging for the manager, especially as Everton have looked pretty dangerous going forward.

Creating chances at the Amex Stadium won't be easy for Everton though and this has all of the makings of a really competitive fixture with little between the teams. The injuries in the Brighton defensive areas has to be something Everton look to exploit though and Rafael Benitez' team have scored at least twice in all 3 games played this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin looks like he will really enjoy playing for Everton and the system has been one that is getting a bit more out of some of the players at the disposal of the club. Rafael Benitez might not have been the choice of many of the fans of the club, but I think his Everton team have been a little better than Brighton in the first couple of fixtures and they can at least match the point earned from the trip down south last season.

If Brighton are missing Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck you do have to wonder if they have enough of an attacking threat to break down Everton here. Set pieces are always dangerous for Brighton, but Everton are not a small team and I think the visitors can be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap to earn any kind of positive result here.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: Both Steve Bruce and Ralph Hasenhuttl may feel there is a difficult season in front of their Newcastle United and Southampton teams and so games like this one are going to be vitally important for them if they are going to avoid the drop.

Nothing we have seen from the first month of the new season suggests that the pre-season expectations for both clubs are too wide of the mark.

Southampton at least earned a big League Cup win during the week to build some confidence, but they have lost key players this summer and there is a pressure on the team. Their away form has been tremendously poor in the Premier League in 2021 and Southampton are a team that have given up some huge chances in their first couple of Premier League games.

Despite the defeats, Newcastle United have been creating chances and it is only their own defensive vulnerabilities that have held them back. Better finishing would have seen them beat Burnley in the League Cup, while Newcastle United didn't play that terribly in the defeat to Aston Villa last weekend.

I do think that offers some encouragement, while Newcastle United have also got the better of Southampton at home in recent seasons.

Both teams will create chances considering the defensive performances we have seen from Newcastle United and Southampton. The Southampton away record going back to last season doesn't offer a lot of encouragement and they were beaten at Everton a couple of weeks ago.

The first goal is going to be absolutely massive in this fixture, but I do think Newcastle United have performed better than their early results will suggest. On the other hand Southampton are a little fortunate to even have a point on the board and I think Newcastle United will find a way to win this one.

However, it would be smarter to keep this to the Asian Handicap which will mean returning any stake in the event of a draw.


Norwich City v Leicester City Pick: These two teams conceded nine times in the Premier League last weekend and both Norwich City and Leicester City will be looking to bounce back when they face one another on Saturday afternoon at Carrow Road.

It has been a tough return to the Premier League for Norwich City who played well in their 0-3 home defeat to Liverpool, but looked shell-shocked in the 5-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend. That does mean they have gotten two difficult fixtures off the list, but Daniel Farke is going to have to work hard to make the players believe that they are able to perform at this level having struggled to 21 points in the Premier League two seasons ago.

A thumping win over Bournemouth in the League Cup Second Round will be a confidence booster for Norwich City, but the manager will need his side to be a little more ruthless when the chances come up. They missed some big ones against Liverpool on the opening weekend, but one of the bigger concerns for Norwich City has to be the amount of big chances they have given up.

The question is whether Leicester City can expose the backline in the same manner as the two previous Champions have been able to do and their early form is not so encouraging. Brendan Rodgers has seen his team pick up 3 points, but they were fortunate to beat Wolves at home and on Monday Leicester City looked well off the pace as they were overwhelmed and eventually worn down by West Ham United.

Losing a player in the first half did not help, but Leicester City were already looking like they were struggling with the intensity of the home team. Now they have to face a Norwich City team who are going to be intense, especially early, and a home crowd that will be pumped after the big Cup win during the week.

Even then you do have to think Leicester City have enough quality in the final third to cause problems for The Canaries and I can see both teams having enough about them to get on the scoreboard. A draw would not be the worst result for Norwich City, but Daniel Farke only has his team play one way and that should mean this is an attacking game.

Two seasons ago there were two low scoring Premier League games between these clubs, but I think this will buck that trend considering the early performances of both Norwich City and Leicester City. Neither team has looked very sure defensively and that may be music to the ears of the attacking players and I think the teams could share out three goals on the day.


West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: He was ridiculed for his time managing Manchester United and I do believe David Moyes will privately admit he got plenty wrong in his short time overseeing things at Old Trafford. However, 'The Chosen One' has rebuilt his reputation in the seven years since being sacked as manager of Manchester United and his time with West Ham United has been particularly special.

David Moyes was once reigniting Everton as a big Premier League club and he is more than doing the same for West Ham United have taken them to their highest League finish in twenty-one years last season. Building on that was always going to be a challenge, but West Ham United look plenty confident and scoring eight goals in 2 Premier League wins against Newcastle United and Leicester City only strengthens the belief within the playing squad.

Reinforcements may still be needed when West Ham United have to cope with the Thursday-Sunday Europa League-Premier League schedule, but for now this is a team flying and playing with swagger.

Said Benrahma looks to have learnt plenty from his first season in the Premier League, while the added physicality being allowed by the referees only makes Michail Antonio a bigger threat than he already was. Both players have been in stunning form to open this season and they are taking on a Crystal Palace team who have to be a little concerned with the start made under Patrick Vieira.

A point has been earned by Crystal Palace, but that came in a winnable home game against Brentford and Vieira still has to win over some of his critics. The defeat to Watford in the League Cup may not have hurt so much if the manager had made vast changes, but it was a strong Crystal Palace team that struggled to create chances and they have had issues in the final third.

Defensively Crystal Palace are still relatively organised, but they are going to have to perform at a high level to contain this rampant West Ham United team. The Hammers have been creating plenty of chances and have players from all around the front six that will feel they can finish when those come their way.

Last season Crystal Palace did earn a draw here, but this looks a tough ground to visit right now and West Ham United are motoring. The goals being scored by David Moyes' team are hard to ignore, but they haven't been fortunate to do that and have been creating plenty to suggest it can continue.

I expect Crystal Palace to try and work their hosts over on the counter attack, but this is a team that has struggled with the new identity that Patrick Vieira wants to instil in them. It is a work in progress and I think West Ham United will take advantage by securing a comfortable win on the day to make it three wins from three going into the first international break.


Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: There is no doubt which is the biggest game in the Premier League this weekend as two of the sides with a 100% record meet at Anfield.

The fact it is also a match between the 2020 Premier League Champions and the 2021 European Champions and both Liverpool and Chelsea will feel they have the capabilities of being crowned Champions next May. These are two clubs that will be chasing the big prizes and an early chance for Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel to lay down a marker for the kind of standards they expect from their teams over the next ten months.

Liverpool and Chelsea have really only done what was expected of them by beating Norwich City/Burnley and Crystal Palace/Arsenal respectively, but ultimately they have to be given credit for the six points they have produced. Other leading clubs have already dropped points so Liverpool and Chelsea will be feeling good about where they are going into the third round of fixtures in the Premier League, but both will also feel they have something to prove.

This is by far the biggest test either team will have played this season and I do think it is going to be an incredibly competitive fixture.

Liverpool look stronger with their defensive injuries cleared up and they should have their first choice back four together for the first time. Andrew Robertson has missed the first two games, but he was on the bench last week and another week of training should mean the Scottish international bolsters the Liverpool defence who have kept back to back clean sheets.

Now they will be looking to shut out Romelu Lukaku who scored on his second debut for Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel's men have really played very well through their first two games. This is just further proof of the improvement of the entire squad since Tuchel replaced Frank Lampard last January and Chelsea have won 7 of their 10 away Premier League games under the former Paris Saint-Germain manager.

Chelsea have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in the 10 Premier League away wins played with Thomas Tuchel at the helm, while they have also won at West Ham United in that time.

The Blues will feel they have the balance between attack and defence to pose considerable problems for Liverpool, although they will also acknowledge that the home team have fresh strikers that all look to be on top form in the first month of the 2021/22 season.

It makes this a tough fixture to call, but I do think the tactical acumen of Thomas Tuchel has been seen in the majority of Chelsea's big matches since January. The defeat in the FA Cup Final aside, Chelsea have had some huge wins over the top teams in the Premier League and they have a squad that has the winning mentality to make things very difficult for the narrow favourites Liverpool.

Not many teams can stand the pressure of Liverpool with a full Anfield behind them, especially this Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp. However, I do think Chelsea have the personnel and experience to at least weather the early storm and in the opening two fixtures it is the Chelsea defence which has looked stronger than the Liverpool one.

A single goal may be enough to win this fixture, but I think Chelsea are good enough to avoid defeat. Even if they fall behind, this is a deep squad that can make changes to shift the momentum of the match and I think Chelsea have been a little more impressive than Liverpool even though both teams will feel they have tougher tests to come than the first two League opponents faced.

The superior defence may make the difference on the day and I do think Chelsea have that with the approach of the manager. In a tough fixture, I think the visitors can do enough to contain Liverpool and give themselves every chance of picking up a positive result before the first international break of the season.


Burnley v Leeds United Pick: The first live Premier League game on Sunday comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Leeds United will be very keen to secure their first three points of the season.

The early performances have been somewhat encouraging despite the results and I think that could lead to a decent fixture. Defensively there are some questions to answer for both Burnley and Leeds United and that should mean the attacking players are able to have plenty of success in the fixture.

Burnley have perhaps been the team that has created the superior chances early in this season, but Leeds United have managed to score the goals. The quality in the away team cannot be dismissed and they are going to be capable of working chances against the Burnley defence which has struggled with their balance at times.

However, I also believe Burnley are going to cause problems with a physical approach that can cause issues for defenders who have become used to a sport that has taken some of the contact away in recent seasons. Having two up two is a system that teams rarely face these days too and that will give Burnley encouragement having fashioned good scoring opportunities against both Brighton and Liverpool.

The game at Elland Road didn't feature a lot of goals last season, but in May Leeds United crushed Burnley here. The fans should motivate the home team to better, and I do think both teams are able to score here.

It should be a fixture with plenty of chances created and I think there will be at least three goals shared out between them.


Tottenham Hotspur v Watford Pick: Two wins from two in the Premier League has given Nuno Espirito Santo a foundation to build upon in his time as the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur, but the biggest boost for the former Wolves manager is Harry Kane's commitment to the club.

Having Harry Kane leading the line will only strengthen Tottenham Hotspur's cause and they should have enough to see off Watford. I do think they have been a little fortunate to beat both Manchester City and Wolves, but confidence has to be improving in each passing match and they are expected to have too much for this Watford team.

You have to credit Watford for an immediate return to the top flight, but this is a squad that is vastly less dangerous playing away from home than they are at Vicarage Road. We have already seen signs of that this season after Watford beat Aston Villa at home and limply dropped a 2-0 defeat at Brighton.

Watford created very little at the Amex Stadium, while defensively they looked suspect at times.

It will be highly encouraging for Tottenham Hotspur as they look to take the game to Watford and I do think having Kane leading the line will only have the fans further behind the team. That should spark another strong result from Tottenham Hotspur as they make it three wins from three.

With the goals they look to have in the squad, I think Tottenham Hotspur are going to win this match by a comfortable margin too.


Wolves v Manchester United Pick: It may only be taking place in August, but this is a huge Premier League match for both Wolves and Manchester United who are coming off disappointing League results last Sunday.

Both managers will feel their team did enough to secure wins against Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton respectively, but Wolves were disappointingly beaten and Manchester United could only earn a point. The underlying numbers have been positive for both teams, but it is what they do on the pitch that will matter to two managers that could face plenty of criticism if the right results don't keep them off the hot seat.

Bruno Lage has to be pleased with the attacking football his Wolves team are playing, although the final touch has been missing. Big chances have come and gone, but Lage has to believe that things will turn in Wolves' favour if they can keep that form going and the 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the League Cup Second Round will be a jolt of confidence surging through the squad.

There is pace in the forward positions and Wolves also have talisman Raul Jimenez leading the line after a serious injury forced him to miss much of last season. Even then it will take some time for Jimenez to find his feet again and the key for Wolves is seeing other players step up and take the chances when they come.

Creating against Manchester United won't be easy even if the lack of clean sheets for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men suggests otherwise. Both Leeds United and Southampton have needed something special to find the back of the net and Manchester United will believe they did more than enough in the final third to deserve more than they got.

Better finishing will be key for Manchester United as much as Wolves, but I think they can produce that at Molineux on Sunday. The home team will be dangerous with their new style and they may be facing a United team without Raphael Varane again which can only encourage Wolves to try and get forward.

3 of the last 5 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with at least three goals shared out since Wolves returned to the top flight in the 2018/19 season. An early goal would certainly spark the entire fixture in this one too as it did on the final day of last season and the new manager's approach for Wolves should make them more enjoyable to watch than they were at times under Nuno Espirito Santo.

Both teams will feel they can trouble the opposition goalkeeper, but both Wolves and Manchester United have been creating enough chances to believe they can come together and produce at least three goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United 0 Asian Handicap
Norwich City-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals
Chelsea + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap
Wolves-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 3
I did not have a thread up last week (it's wedding season which limits time massively), but it was one in which I posted my team which had no changes from the opening weekend.

I was hoping to hold onto a transfer to carry across the international break, but after two weeks I do feel changes had to be made largely because I did not want to be on the wrong end of any significant price drops.

The likes of Ryan Bertrand, Harvey Barnes and Emiliano Buendia were all expected to drop this week, while I also feel there has to be some change in the mentality compared with last season in which I refused to get on board obvious bandwagons.

Both Bertrand and Barnes were the obvious players to move on and Said Benrahma the obvious replacement for the latter. I did think about bringing in a West Ham United defender too, but I don't think they have defended well enough and instead the focus was on a Tottenham Hotspur player considering the next two games they have on deck.

It also meant being able to put some money in the bank with a long-term goal of bringing in Romelu Lukaku once the Chelsea fixtures ease up. I do think I am going to have to either use my first Wild Card of the season after the October international break or I will have to give up one of the premium midfield options and right now both of those routes are very much available for me.

I don't want to look too far ahead as that can see a wide gap develop to the top players in the FPL, but it is something to keep in mind. For now the focus is making sure I can keep the positive start to the season going through another GameWeek and with another week of numbers to crunch before the next GW begins.

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