College Football Week 4 Picks 2021 (September 25th)

My Picks for Week 4 of the College Football season.

I will update the weekly totals in the Week 5 thread which should be out next Friday.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: After the Covid-19 pandemic forced the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) to join the ACC for a single season, they are back playing as an Independent in 2021. The big news out of the SEC that the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners will be joining their Conference in the years ahead means there may be more pressure for the Fighting Irish to join one of their own and give themselves the best opportunity to earn College Football PlayOff spots going forward.

It may not matter so much if the PlayOff is expanded like many believe it will be, but the pressure is on the Fighting Irish to negotiate what is usually a very difficult schedule to earn their place in the post-season. Without a Championship Game, the schedule strength ends up being dictated by how well their opponents do, while one defeat is very difficult to overcome.

So far, so good for Notre Dame this season with three wins and the most impressive of those came last week against the Purdue Boilermakers. That has to be encouraging for the Fighting Irish, although they are going to be playing a Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) team coming in off a Bye and with plenty of preparation for this game likely to have taken place.

Wisconsin have dropped a game to the Penn State Nittany Lions already this season, but they will know they can redeem themselves by winning the Big Ten West Division and ultimately the Conference Championship in December. Losing another game before then will likely end their PlayOff hopes in all likelihood though and that puts pressure on the Badgers in this neutral field meeting.

Soldier Field is not that far away from either campus though and that should mean an intense atmosphere in which the players can perform.

One more than most will be looking for a big day- Jack Coan is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quarter Back and he transferred across from the Wisconsin Badgers so there should be plenty of motivation in his mind to produce for his new team. There wasn't an acrimonious departure from Wisconsin to pump him up all the more, but Jack Coan will want to show his friends and former team-mates what he can do.

He has played well for the Fighting Irish and has thrown 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions, but Jack Coan will be keen to have more support from the run game. That looks a big ask this week against the Wisconsin Defensive Line which has been pretty stout in the first two games played, but Coan should have the knowledge to make some plays through the air and give the Fighting Irish the opportunity to secure the upset.

It has been a more difficult start to the season for Graham Mertz who has taken over from Coan as the Wisconsin starting Quarter Back. His numbers have not really impressed and this is as good a Defensive unit as he would have faced, but Graham Mertz may be able to lean on his running game to at least put the Badgers in a position to try and move above 0.500 for the season.

This battle in the trenches will be a big determining factor as to how the game will go and I do think the Fighting Irish will be looking to pick up from where they left off against the Purdue Boilermakers. That was the best all around performance of the season from Notre Dame and I do think this is a team that will feel they can earn a PlayOff spot and that means winning in Wisconsin.

If the Fighting Irish can at least restrict the Badgers on the ground, their powerful pass rush may make the difference and Notre Dame certainly feel like they are being underestimated here.

The Badgers are a team that have played really well coming out of a Bye Week and I do think that makes them dangerous. However, they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when set as the favourite and they are 1-6 against the spread when favoured on a neutral field.

Notre Dame are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games on a neutral field, while they have covered the last three times they have been set as the underdog. I think there are enough points for the Fighting Irish to keep this one close in what should be a Defensive battle and Jack Coan may be the player that makes the difference for them in a potential upset.

Clemson Tigers @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: In recent years the Clemson Tigers (2-1) have not only dominated this Conference, but they have been a regular in the College Football PlayOff and also a team that has to be considered amongst the favourites when it comes to potential National Champions. Trevor Lawrence has moved on to the NFL before this season began and Clemson are having plenty of teething problems blooding in DJ Uiagalelei who had limited time playing behind Lawrence at Quarter Back.

It has seen the Tigers lose to the Georgia Bulldogs despite only allowing 10 points, while they only managed 14 points in their win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. There is pressure on the Quarter Back to pick up his level and even Head Coach Dabo Swinney has been seen getting in DJ Uiagalelei's ear after a mistake.

They are visiting the NC State Wolfpack (2-1) this week who were expected to be the closest rivals to Clemson in this Division, but who have lost their toughest game of the season at the Mississippi State Bulldogs. However, it says all you need to know about the Clemson struggles that they are only favoured by 10 points on the road compared to the 35 point handicap spread when these teams last met two years ago.

This is still a major test for the Wolfpack who will be favourites to win the Division if they can upset the odds here, but they are facing a Tigers Defensive unit which has been performing like a National Championship contender when the Offensive unit has been struggling. No matter how long they have been spending on the field, Clemson have not given up more than 10 points in any games played this season and that kind of level will mean DJ Uiagalelei has every opportunity of getting things right at Quarter Back and put wins on the board.

Devin Leary and Zonovan Knight have both played well for NC State, but the Quarter Back and Running Back will understand the size of the task in front of them. As well as the Wolfpack Offensive Line has played in setting up Knight for big gains on the ground, they have yet to face a Defensive Line like the one Clemson will be bringing to the field and so the pressure may be on Quarter Back Devin Leary to make the plays to move the scoreboard.

He has not played badly this season with 6 Touchdown passes against 2 Interceptions, but, if the rushing Offense is clamped upon, I do think Leary is going to have issues moving the ball with consistency against the Tigers.

With that in mind you have to believe Clemson can continue their dominance of this series by winning here, but whether they cover the spread is another matter. You can't be backing Clemson with any ease and the NC State Defensive unit has played really well in the early part of the season and they are an experienced team on this side of the ball.

Like Clemson, the Wolfpack start with their powerful Defensive Line and use them to clamp down on the run and force Offenses to become a little one-dimensional. The Tigers Offensive Line is one that is learning on the job and they have only helped the team rush for 4 yards per carry so the feeling is the experience of the NC State Defensive Line can win in the trenches on this side of the ball.

It will mean all of the pressure is on DJ Uiagalelei to make the right throws to open things up on the ground for the Tigers and it is hard to lay this many points with the struggling Quarter Back. The issue that the Wolfpack may have to address is the limited pass rush they have generated though as giving any Quarter Back time to make his reads is not going to end well, but the Secondary have been good so far against largely limited opponents.

Last year felt like a tough one for Clemson who have lost plenty of skill players on the Offensive side of the ball and I still think there is much learning for them to do. It may all come together very quickly, but this feels like a lot of points for the Tigers to lay on the road against an opponent who will have been mentally looking ahead to this game for a couple of weeks.

Clemson have been a very good road favourite to back, but that has been with Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back and that is not the case this week. They are facing a NC State Wolfpack team who are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight at home and who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.

As long as Devin Leary can avoid mistakes, he should be able to keep the Wolfpack competitive in this big ACC Divisional game.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 7 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 15 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Purdue Boilermakers - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baylor Bears + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers - 27.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 16 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 6 Picks 2021 (September 25-27)

It was another decent, but unspectacular week for my Fantasy Premier League team.

At least my real life team are still picking up big wins in the Premier League and Manchester United have a big week ahead of them when they are due to play three games before the October international break.

All three will be played at Old Trafford, but the idiots in West London have drained the fuel garages and that means I will not be attending for the first time in the League this season. To say I am highly strung at the moment is an understatement, but hopefully it will have cleared up by the time the Champions League game with Villarreal is set to be played on Wednesday.

And almost certainly I will be back for the Premier League game with Everton next weekend.

Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: This looks to be the big game in the Premier League this weekend and it will be the opening live fixture of the scheduled matches to be played.

Both Chelsea and Manchester City are amongst the favourites to win the Premier League title this season and both have made relatively good starts to the season.

Chelsea have been producing better results, but it can be argued that Manchester City have largely had the stronger performances. That makes it more intriguing trying to pick a winner, although the mental edge is with Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea team.

Since his arrival, Thomas Tuchel has beaten Pep Guardiola and Manchester City in all 3 meetings including in the FA Cup Semi Final to end the Quadruple hopes and in the Champions League Final. The games have been competitively played which should be the case on Saturday, although I do think the injury list at centre half is a worry for Manchester City.

The home team look stronger in the squad and they should be ready to compete in front of their own fans, although Chelsea are not creating a host of chances in matches they are playing. What they have been doing is being defensively responsible and I do think Thomas Tuchel will set Chelsea up to be hard to break down.

It has worked in the matches against Manchester City as Pep Guardiola has been guilty of overcomplicating his team selection and tactics in a couple of those defeats. They are still a team who can be very threatening going forward, but Chelsea have shown they can deal with all that comes their way and the feeling is that this will be another low-scoring game between these teams who will not want to give much away to the other.

Manchester United v Aston Villa Pick: Both of these teams were beaten in the League Cup Third Round during the week, but they will return to the more important Premier League schedule this weekend.

Manchester United and Aston Villa have some big ambitions in the League this season, although the former have made the much stronger start of the two teams. The fixture list has actually been pretty kind to both, but Aston Villa have had a couple of setbacks away from home which has left them in the bottom half of the table.

Those away defeats at Watford and Chelsea are a concern for Aston Villa considering the amount of goals Manchester United have scored in their last two Premier League games at Old Trafford. In the two League games with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line, Manchester United have created some big chances and the Portuguese hitman has banged in four goals already since returning to the club.

His movement helps the entire Manchester United attack and I do think Cristiano Ronaldo can inspire the team to another three points.

Aston Villa cannot be underestimated considering how well they performed at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League earlier this month- the 3-0 defeat was incredibly harsh on them and Aston Villa do create chances.

However, they have not looked completely at ease defensively and that is where Manchester United should have the edge. Clean sheets have not been easy to come by for the home team, but they are making mistakes at times which have been punished and Manchester United have to pay plenty of attention to Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins.

The partnership will need time to really click together and Aston Villa have not really been creating a lot of good chances. They played well on the counter attack at Chelsea in the League and Cup and that will give them chances against Manchester United, but I expect plenty of the key players to be restored to the side and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can make it three wins out of three at Old Trafford in the League before a big Champions League and Premier League fixture to come leading to the October international break.

Everton v Norwich City Pick: Daniel Farke has to be questioned about his Norwich City tactics which look to be leading the club back into the Championship with little hope of much of a fight to avoid that. He wants his team to play on the front foot, but Norwich City have been really poor defensively and making some massive mistakes which have proved costly.

They are not consistent enough going the other way to make amends for those defensive vulnerabilities and I do think Norwich City are going to struggle to even avoid finishing with the fewest Premier League points in history.

It is important for Norwich City to show more and it could be argued that they could not have picked a better time to visit Goodison Park.

Everton were beaten 3-0 at Aston Villa last weekend and were then dumped out of the League Cup at Queens Park Rangers, while injuries have piled up for Rafael Benitez ahead of the October international break. Key names should be able to return immediately after that, but for now Everton are short of numbers and the players are going to have to dig deep to make up for the absentees.

They did show they can do that in the 3-1 win over Burnley a couple of weeks ago and Everton do still have enough in the final third to believe they are going to have too much for Norwich City. Recent history at Goodison Park is not that encouraging, but Rafael Benitez has made Everton pretty organised already and they are capable of blowing past teams at home with the fans behind them.

Players will have to step up with both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison expected to miss out, but Everton have the squad depth to do that. It is especially the case against this opponent in my opinion and I think Everton will win a game that features a few goals.

Leeds United v West Ham United Pick: Injuries have really hurt Leeds United early in this season and they have looked vulnerable when teams have tried to get on top of them.

It has led to a couple of heavy defeats to Manchester United and Liverpool, while Leeds United have yet to secure a clean sheet. This week they are missing more key players as Diego Llorente and Patrick Bamford are expected to be absent and that leaves Leeds United vulnerable.

They will never be easy to beat at Elland Road and especially not with the fans back in attendance, but West Ham United are more than capable of taking advantage of any uncertainty in the home dressing room. Michail Antonio is back and West Ham United are coming in off a big win at Manchester United in the League Cup which means they have won 5 of their last 7 away from home in all competitions.

The Hammers have produced 3 clean sheets in a row away from home which has to be respected and Antonio means they have a significant goal-threat returning this week. I expect that to make the difference for West Ham United with Leeds United being without their first choice striker, although the home team are more than capable of making up for Patrick Bamford's absence.

However, Leeds United have not been in their best form at either end of the field, while West Ham United have still looked very strong despite not winning any of their last 3 League games. Away wins at Dinamo Zagreb and at Old Trafford will make West Ham United believe they have the quality to break down Leeds United and I think they can be backed on the handicap to secure the points.

Leicester City v Burnley Pick: There will be a feeling that both of these teams have underachieved so far in this Premier League season, but there has to be enough encouragement for both Brendan Rodgers and Sean Dyche to believe their teams can turn things around.

Strong League Cup wins during the week will help the confidence for both Leicester City and Burnley who will have felt hard done by when VAR decisions went against them in defeats last weekend.

Burnley may be the more unfortunate of the two teams with their lack of points considering their performances, but Leicester City will believe they have come out of their toughest point of the season already. Injuries were hurting Leicester City, but the majority have cleared up and that could see an upturn in form and fortune for them.

There is some negative form going against both clubs- Leicester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at home, while Burnley have lost their last 3 away Premier League games. However, I think both teams are capable of causing problems for the other when they get forward and this may be the latest game between the clubs that ends with a few goals shared out.

The last 2 at the King Power Stadium have ended with three or more goals shared out, while 5 of the last 7 overall between Burnley and Leicester City have ended that way. After good Cup results, I think the two teams will be more confident this weekend and I do think defensive vulnerabilities can be exploited by each of the teams taking to the field.

It looks like a game that could produce goals.

Watford v Newcastle United Pick: It is far too early to be speaking about relegation six pointers, but you have to believe that both Watford and Newcastle United would have targeted matches against the other as being vital towards their survival bids.

The newly promoted club are in better form in the very early part of the Premier League season and Watford put a huge three points on the board by crushing Norwich City 1-3 at Carrow Road last weekend.

Being in mid-table is obviously a good thing, but Xisco Munoz knows the pressure is on to deliver enough strong results at all times. Watford have become known for chopping and changing managers very quickly when they feel things are going against them and so this is a big game for the manager to show he can keep the club in the top flight.

Playing away from home may suit Steve Bruce and his Newcastle United players with the fans clearly not happy with the direction of the club. They were booed off last week, but Bruce is maintaining he will not walk away from the job and there has been little to suggest Mike Ashley has lost faith in the manager.

Newcastle United need a win to ease growing concerns, but they are suffering with some key injuries and I do think they have continued to look vulnerable at the back.

Watford have been strong at home under their current manager, despite back to back losses at Vicarage Road, and I do think the squad is more settled. Only the starting goalkeeper is expected to sit out, but Ben Foster is more than a capable replacement and I do think Watford can create the chances to earn the win.

The Hornets also have a strong home record against Newcastle United in recent seasons and I think they do enough to win here.

Brentford v Liverpool Pick: The late Saturday kick off in the Premier League is a game that many Brentford fans would have never really expected to see.

Facing the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United has been a dream for people in the area for a long time, but Brentford are still getting used to having those clubs visiting this part of West London.

The players have not really begun the season with an inferiority complex though and that makes Brentford dangerous, while back to back wins gives them confidence. They are well organised under Thomas Frank and Brentford don't give a lot away, while their front two will make defenders work hard all day long.

However, this is a big test for Brentford against a Liverpool team that has picked up from where they left off at the end of last season. They have been winning plenty of games and Liverpool have been scoring goals away from home for fun.

Liverpool have also been pretty good at the back and the return of Virgil Van Dijk has been a huge boost for them. The regularly back line should all be available for this tough game, while Liverpool will feel they have the players capable of a touch of magic in the final third that can make the difference in what is expected to be a tight, competitive match.

I still think there is a little bit of work to do for Brentford if they are going to score a lot of goals at this level, despite the good football they are asked to play. This is the toughest test they would have had on their return to the top flight and I think Liverpool will just underline the difference between the very top clubs, and those expected to be finishing in the bottom half of the table.

Goals may not be as free-flowing as recent Liverpool away games, but I think the reality is that they have enough to secure the narrow victory on the day.

Southampton v Wolves Pick: If teams were going to be rewarded points for their performances rather than the goals they have been able to score, I think both Southampton and Wolves would be much higher up the Premier League table.

However, that is not how it works and this is a big game for both teams who have 4 and 3 points respectively.

At least Wolves have earned a victory in the League this season, but the 0-2 home loss to Brentford would have hurt. Southampton have yet to win, but they have had a much more difficult fixture list having played three matches against teams that finished in the top six last season.

Avoiding defeat in all of those is a bonus for Ralph Hasenhuttl's team, but it is a different mindset that is needed to win games Southampton will be expecting to. They would not have expected much change out of Manchester United, West Ham United and Manchester City and that has allowed Southampton to dig in, but the fans will be looking for their team to get forward more in this fixture.

That could leave Southampton vulnerable to the counter attack and Wolves certainly have plenty of pace in the forward areas to take advantage of any spaces left behind. We have yet to see Wolves really display a cutting edge to their football, but they have created chances and they looked better in their last away game at Watford a couple of weeks ago.

Wolves also have good memories of playing at this stadium with wins in 4 of their last 5 visits, although they have not always been easy.

The first goal is going to be key to the match, but I do have to favour Wolves very slightly in that regard. They have been a little stronger than Southampton at both ends of the field and a bit of composure should see Wolves motoring up the standings in the weeks ahead.

As a very slight underdog, Wolves could surprise this weekend with a victory to move above their opponents and leave Southampton waiting for their first Premier League win of the season.

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It hasn't been that long since the North London derby would be seen as one of the top games in the Premier League, but these days it feels much more about bragging rights than about deciding Champions League positions.

Not many would tip Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur to be good enough to secure a top four finish this season, but the fans will care little for that ahead of the first derby of the campaign.

If the game had been played at the beginning of September, I imagine the odds would have been much tighter. At that point Arsenal had lost all 3 Premier League games played and Tottenham Hotspur had won all 3, but a month later it is all change.

Now it is Arsenal who have won back to back League games, while Spurs have been thumped by Crystal Palace and Chelsea. It also means Arsenal are considered a pretty strong favourite to win this game and I think there are plenty of reasons to believe they can do that.

However, Arsenal have yet to really convince with their play and Tottenham Hotspur manager Nuno Espirito Santo has a pretty good record here with his Wolves team. The defeat at Crystal Palace came off the back of a sending off when the game was goalless and I expect Tottenham Hotspur to be set up to play on the counter attack.

They have yet to find the balance Wolves had under the manager and that has meant Tottenham Hotspur have struggled to create a lot of good chances. Being without Steven Bergwijn and Lucas Moura will not help and I do think this is going to be a tight game where goals could be at a premium.

4 of the last 6 North London derby games have finished with three or more goals shared out, while the last 3 here have all ended the same way. You have to respect that, but both of these teams have struggled in the final third in the early part of this season and I do think that shows up in this Sunday afternoon fixture and I expect it to result in a lower scoring derby than the fans have gotten used to seeing.

Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: Both Patrick Vieira and Graham Potter do like their teams to get down and play attractive, attacking football and that could mean a good game develops on Monday Night Football.

The atmosphere should be intense at Selhurst Park and I do think Crystal Palace are being a touch under-rated in this one.

They were well beaten at Liverpool last weekend, but Crystal Palace have produced some decent numbers in other games as they find the balance between Roy Hodgson's and Patrick Vieira's style. Crystal Palace might have done enough to win at the London Stadium and deserved the win over Tottenham Hotspur and I do think the points will be reflecting the performances soon.

Brighton know that it can take some time for that to happen having underachieved for much of last season, but they look all the better for it now. Wins have been coming frequently this season, but the numbers suggest they have been a touch fortunate this time around.

Both Burnley and Brentford will feel they did enough to avoid defeat against Brighton and I do think Crystal Palace have played well enough here to expect that to be the case. However, they might have a narrow edge with the home crowd behind them and Crystal Palace look a worthy underdog to bounce back from last weekend and beat their rivals at home for the first time since April 2018.

MY PICKS: Chelsea-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals

Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Everton & Over 1.5 Goals

West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap

Leicester City-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals

Watford - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool & Under 4.5 Goals

Wolves 0 Asian Handicap

Arsenal-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals

Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 6

After picking up 61 points in GameWeek 5, my team has had a slight drop in the overall Rankings.

However, the key is that the team are still performing well enough and producing at least 60 points per week, an average across the season that will bring in a very good OR.

This week I had two transfers to use and I honestly would have been happy to roll it over another week if the game would allow me to put three transfers in the bank.

Unfortunately it does not do that so my only choice was to use a transfer or lose a transfer.

There are three players that I have considered changing and all are midfielders- Diogo Jota, Mason Greenwood and Said Benrahma.

My reasons for those players are below:

Diogo Jota- he is due a big return, but Liverpool have a pretty tough game in West London at Brentford and will then face Manchester City. With Roberto Firmino on the road back, I think Jota will be rotated again.

Mason Greenwood- a lethal finisher, I do think Mason Greenwood is someone who will out-perform his underlying numbers. However, Cristiano Ronaldo's return means Manchester United have been playing a little differently and I think Greenwood won't be having the same kind of opportunities that he got in the first three weeks.

Said Benrahma- his numbers are not that impressive of late and I do think he was very fortunate to have been given the goal against Manchester United last Sunday. However, the fixtures look kinder than for the other two players mentioned.

One of those are going to have to be moved out and I think the best replacement may be a midfielder in the 5.4 to 5.6 million range.

Andros Townsend, Conor Gallagher and Bryan Mbeumo may be the leading contenders. Demarai Gray looks to be heavily owned now, but Townsend could be a differential way into the Everton attack against Norwich City.

Bryan Mbeumo looks to have a tough game this week and Brentford are in a difficult portion of their schedule, but you can never ignore a player that is playing out of position when operating further up the pitch than the FPL game has expected.

The last player mentioned is Conor Gallagher who looks capable of thriving under the guidance of Patrick Vieira at Crystal Palace. He has got into some very good positions in the final third for his new club and Gallagher has produced some good looking numbers already, while also having a fixture list that looks appealing on paper.

The move to bring in a player of that kind of value will also put my squad in a good position to bring in the Chelsea players I want, especially with the fixtures coming up from GameWeek 7. I have mentioned before that they are a team that has to be targeted with the run of games coming up, plus the extra money in the bank does offer an opportunity to shape the squad in the manner I like.

I will have two transfers going into GameWeek 7 and will be having a real think about whether I will use both, or whether I will roll one over to the GameWeek after the next international break.

My team will be on Twitter just after the deadline on Saturday morning.

NFL Week 3 Picks 2021 (September 23-27)

Another Thursday Night Football has come around much quicker than anticipated and it is a week in which I am not able to write out a long post for the Week 3 selections in the NFL.

I should have better analysis for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday if there are any Picks to be made from those, but the posts should be getting much longer once this weekend is out of the way.

Week 2 was at least not a losing one in terms of the selections, but some late drama did go against the selections which have meant it was not the kind of bounce back week I wanted. Hopefully there will be a little more bounce of the ball in my favour with the Week 3 Picks as I look to get back to winning ways.

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Pick: Before the season started, many would have tipped up the Houston Texans (1-1) to be one of the weaker teams in the NFL. They may have benefited from the early schedule which allowed the Texans to beat Divisional rivals Jacksonville at home, but Houston were not able to stay with the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and have had a massive setback to their team out of that defeat.

Losing the game was not a major surprise, but it was disappointing for Houston and Tyrod Taylor that he has picked up yet another injury when earning the starting job in the NFL. It has proved costly for him at his last two teams, but Houston have made a decision that they will not be using Deshaun Watson and it means the Texans will be putting in Davis Mills at Quarter Back.

A rookie going in at Quarter Back having been selected early in the Draft is one thing, but Davis Mills is seen as a project and he struggled in his limited time on the field in Week 2. To make matters tougher, Mills is not surrounded by a lot of talent and the Thursday Night Football slot means there is not a lot of time for Houston to get him up to speed.

Davis Mills is not going to be helped by going up against the Carolina Panthers (2-0) Defensive unit that has shut down the New York Jets, expectedly, and then the New Orleans Saints as the home underdog. Like Houston, expectations are not that great in Carolina, but the team have made a positive start to the season and they are likely going to head into this Week 3 game knowing they have a big opportunity in front of them.

It is the Defensive unit that is making big plays for the Panthers and it is very difficult to imagine Houston being able to break the shackles that they have put onto opponents in the early stage of the NFL season. Davis Mills is unlikely to be given a lot of support on the ground and the pressure will be on him to make plays against a Secondary which has been in top form, while the Carolina Defensive Line has caused havoc in the backfield for the two opponents they have beaten.

The strong performances on this side of the ball have meant Carolina have not needed to score a lot of points, but Sam Darnold has played well enough and I am not too worried that this is the first road game he is playing for the Panthers. The Quarter Back will be glad to be out of New York and he is young enough to stamp his spot somewhere in the NFL, although Sam Darnold is going to have to show some growth with his new team.

This looks a good match up for Carolina Offensively and they should be able to get Christian McCaffrey going from Running Back despite the early Offensive Line issues. The Panthers have been strong enough in pass protection, but they are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry as a team on the ground, although this feels a good chance to get back on track considering how ineffective the Texans Defensive Line has been,

Christian McCaffrey is also a serious threat catching the ball out of the back field and I do think he will have a very big game. Sam Darnold can use the Running Back to open the field up and he should have plenty of time to hit Receivers and light up the scoreboard, relatively speaking at least.

There is no doubting that it is difficult to back the Carolina Panthers as a road favourite, let alone one with this many points to cover. They have a 7-0 record against the spread in their last seven road games, but the Panthers have been a dog in a large majority of them and they have a poor record when set as the road underdog.

In saying that, I do think Thursday Night Football favours the better team and I have little reason to believe that the Panthers are significantly stronger than the Texans. Having a rookie Quarter Back who doesn't look ready for this level is a major problem for Houston who are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve Thursday night games.

Sam Darnold is a Quarter Back with a pretty terrible early record as a favourite, but he helped the Carolina Panthers cover in that spot in Week 1 and I think his Defensive unit can spark another strong win here.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Pick: Two desperate teams will be meeting in Week 3 in the NFL and avoiding falling into a 0-3 hole has to be the only thing on the mind for the players. The New York Giants (0-2) suffered an agonising defeat to Divisional rivals Washington in Week 2 when an offside call gave their hosts a second chance to hit a game winning Field Goal.

It feels like the Giants have been in this position far too often in recent seasons and there is some pressure on Head Coach Joe Judge as they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons (0-2). The Falcons are off a defeat to a Divisional rival too, but they played much better in Week 2 compared with the opening loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, although the Super Bowl window looks to have closed for Matt Ryan with this team.

Both teams are off losing records, but there is more pressure on the home team with the Falcons feeling like they are going to have a transitional year after losing some key players. Matt Ryan still has some talent around him, but nothing like the year the Falcons reached the Super Bowl and somehow blew the chance to beat the New England Patriots.

Injuries on both sides of the ball have not been helping Atlanta and the Offensive Line has been struggling which makes it hard to believe they are going to be able to run the ball consistently, even against the Giants Defensive Line which has allowed 5 yards per carry. Matt Ryan has faced some pressure up front too with teams able to pin back their ears without a strong running game to complement the Quarter Back and that has seen Ryan rushed into making some bad throws.

There are some holes in this New York Secondary which could be exposed by Matt Ryan and the Giants pass rush has not been as strong as the home team would have liked. That should encourage Atlanta who do have the likes of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to catch those passes and at least help the Falcons push the ball down the field.

At the same time, it would be a big disappointment for New York fans if the Giants are not able to have considerable success on the Offensive side of the ball and they have had a few more days to prepare for this Week 3 game. The likes of Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay should be ready to play and the Giants are off a big Offensive outing against the Washington Football Team.

Saquon Barkley had a solid day and having a few extra days to prepare his body for this one should see him have another big game. The Falcons Defensive Line have struggled to clamp down on the run and I expect Barkley to set the Giants up in third and manageable spots throughout this game which will help Daniel Jones out no end.

The Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, but Daniel Jones has had ball security issues, although I am not anticipating too much of that in this game with Barkley setting the Offense up. Daniel Jones should have more time to step back and make his plays with the team in third and short spots and the Atlanta Secondary is banged up and giving up far too many big plays.

Jones should be the latest to do that and I think it gives the Giants the edge in this game between two teams looking to win their first game in 2021. The balance on the Offensive side of the ball and the additional rest between Week 2 and Week 3 benefits the Giants over the Falcons.

It is not exactly encouraging trying to back Daniel Jones to Quarter Back a favourite to a victory, but this looks a good opportunity to do that. Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games where they have been set as the underdog, while the New York Giants are 11-1-1 against the spread in their last thirteen after a Thursday Night game.

Laying less than a Field Goal with the home team looks the way to go.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Super Bowl win with Peyton Manning at Quarter Back feels a long time ago for the Denver Broncos (2-0) and this is a franchise which has become used to losing seasons. Having a competent Quarter Back would have helped a Broncos team known for their Defensive strength and Teddy Bridgewater has made a good start for them with the pressure on Head Coach Vic Fangio to make progress in his third season with the Broncos.

Denver would have been expected to beat the likes of the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars and they have performed really well on both sides of the ball to do that. Now they face a New York Jets (0-2) team who have dropped both games played this season and who are once again in a transitional part of their history having fallen into the basement of the AFC East.

This is also the opening home game of the season for the Denver Broncos so there has to be a focus on the game which may have been lacking considering how much stronger they have looked than the New York Jets. It is the only concern I really have for the Broncos who should have the Defensive unit to give rookie Quarter Back Zach Wilson plenty to think about.

Zach Wilson had a really hard game against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now has to face someone with the Defensive mindset of Vic Fangio which suggests another learning experience is heading the Quarter Back's way. He has not been helped by the fact that the Jets Offensive Line has struggled to get team ahead of the chains by finding room for the team to move the ball on the ground.

They are unlikely to have a lot more success against this Denver Defensive Line who have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry so far this season.

It doesn't help that the New York Jets have offered little protection to Zach Wilson and I expect the Broncos to put plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back throughout this game. The Denver Secondary will be even tougher to throw against with Wilson facing different looks up front as the Broncos bring some pressure on him and it will be difficult for the New York Jets to score more than the 14 points they scored against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.

However, this is a big spread and the big question has to be how likely Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Offense can score the points needed to beat out a double digit spread. Unlike his counterpart, Teddy Bridgewater is likely to be supported by Melvin Gordon running the ball behind the Denver Offensive Line and I do think that will give Bridgewater the confidence to throw the ball down the field.

Teddy Bridgewater avoids making big mistakes and running the ball effectively should mean he has time to expose the Jets Secondary, while his Receivers are likely to be good enough to make the big plays for him. The Broncos Defensive unit could set up some short fields for the Offense and I do think they can score 23 or more points for a third game in a row, which should be good enough to earn the win and the cover.

The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in the series between these teams.

Denver are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, covering twice this season in that spot, while the New York Jets are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog.

The Jets are also 4-18 against the spread when they are playing with revenge against a non-Division opponent, while they are 1-15 against the spread in their last sixteen when set as the road underdog of less than 17 points against an opponent who has won straight up and covered the spread in their last game as Denver have done.

The spread would have been 5.5 points if you had selected this game to bet on in Vegas before the season started, but I think it has moved as it should have done and Denver can underline their strong start to 2021.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The early season schedule suggested it would be difficult for either of these AFC teams to make a perfect start to 2021, but the Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) have done that by beating two AFC North teams. On the other side, the Miami Dolphins (1-1) have split two Divisional games and will be looking to bounce back behind a back up Quarter Back in Week 3.

Tua Tagovailoa continues to be a divisive figure for the Miami fans who have yet to see the second year Quarter Back prove that he can stay healthy, let alone become a franchise Quarter Back at a position Miami have struggled to fill ever since Dan Marino retired. Jacoby Brissett will be given the keys to the Offensive unit instead of Tagovailoa this week with the latter banged up and the Dolphins are looking to recover from the big loss to the Buffalo Bills.

This will be a big test for Jacoby Brissett if only because the Miami Offensive unit has looked really inconsistent. The Offensive Line has struggled massively and the Las Vegas Defensive Line will feel they can at least get after the big Quarter Back, although I do think Brissett is a capable mover with the ball in his hand which just spark something of a rushing attack.

It has been possible to run the ball against the Raiders and this may at least give the Dolphins a chance to get something going in this one, which can only aid the back up behind Center. Jacoby Brissett has plenty of starting experience at Quarter Back with the Indianapolis Colts to believe any kind of rushing Offensive help will get a big game from him.

The Raiders will be able to get some pressure if Miami are in third and long spots, but the Secondary has struggled at times and the Dolphins have a strong Receiving corps that are waiting for some consistent throws to come their way. Las Vegas do not have the same kind of Defensive unit as New England and Buffalo and I do think the Miami Dolphins may also be able to take advantage of the spot.

What I mean by that is that the Raiders are off two very good looking wins as the underdog and the expectation is now on their shoulders as favourites to win this one in their new Stadium. They are also facing a Divisional game on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and so you have to wonder if they are going to perhaps overlook their opponent in Week 3.

You can only respect the way the Raiders have won their opening two games, but Derek Carr and company have not faced a Defensive unit as good as the one they will be seeing this time around. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers units are banged up, but the Miami Dolphins are still playing at a high level on this side of the ball even if the 35 points given up to Buffalo in Week 3 suggests otherwise.

Las Vegas have struggled to run the ball all season and Josh Jacobs may not be able to playin Week 3, and I am sure Miami would love to see Derek Carr taking his chances throwing in their strength in the Secondary. The Quarter Back has played well early in the season and there is some talent in the Receiving corps which cannot be underestimated, but the Dolphins may be able to at least pressure Derek Carr and the Secondary has not allowed teams to throw against them without the fear of turning the ball over.

The Raiders should be motivated after losing late in the season here to the Miami Dolphins last season and they will want to set the record straight, but it is not an ideal spot for them having won their first two games.

Miami are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven against the Raiders, while they have very strong trends off a straight up loss as well as being 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog.

As I mentioned, this is the first time the Raiders will be favourites this season which changes their mindset compared to the opening two games. Las Vegas are 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite and I think the Miami Dolphins can be backed to cover.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The big bounce back took a little more time than they may have imagined, but the Green Bay Packers (1-1) have got back to 0.500 in what looks like a weak NFC North. They are back in front of the primetime cameras again on Sunday after the Monday Night Football win, but this should be a much tougher game than the win over the Detroit Lions.

This time the Packers have to head out West to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) who have a perfect record in a much tougher Division, although their two wins have been against the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. The yardage suggests there has been a little bit of fortune behind the 49ers and you also can't ignore the fact that San Francisco have a very big Divisional game coming up in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks.

In saying that, not many would have forgotten how the Green Bay Packers came to this Stadium in 2020 and crushed the 49ers who had been banged up considerably. That is going to give San Francisco plenty of motivation ahead of this game, but there is some similarities with last season as they are missing key players on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco have gotten the better of Green Bay plenty of times in recent seasons and much of that has come down a strong running game, but it will be interesting to see if this team can take the same advantage. The Packers Defensive Line have struggled, but San Francisco's Running Back corps have been hurt by the loss of Raheem Mostert and they have only produced 3.8 yards per carry behind this Offensive Line.

Kyle Shanahan is a fine Offensive mind so I would not be surprised if he looks to make short passes and quick screens to the fast Receivers San Francisco have, and use that instead of the rush. The Packers Secondary haven't played too badly, but they have allowed some big throws to be made against them so this is an opportunity for Jimmy Garropolo at Quarter Back.

Being banged up Offensively is one thing, but San Francisco are also hurt on the Defensive side of the ball and that may not be good news against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who looked much better on Monday Night Football. However, Green Bay's Offensive Line have been hurt and I do think Rodgers is going to struggle to get a lot of time in the pocket if Aaron Jones cannot help by setting Green Bay up on the ground.

The Packers have not rushed the ball nearly as effectively as they would have liked so you do wonder if they can take advantage of the 49ers issues on the Defensive Line. I do think Jones could a threat catching the ball out of the backfield though, as he was when scoring three Receiving Touchdowns on Monday, and this San Francisco Secondary have taken a step back from last season.

San Francisco have managed to get the better of Green Bay in recent times, but they are a pretty poor home favourite to back and I think Aaron Rodgers will not want to lay a dud on the road as they did in Week 1. Last season the 49ers were 0-5 against the spread as the home favourite, while Green Bay are 5-3 against the spread as the road underdog with their current Head Coach.

Having a full Field Goal start may be enough for the Green Bay Packers here and I think they can be backed on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: In recent years the NFC East has lost some of the power which saw teams from this Division win Super Bowl titles, but the four all remain very popular and it is no surprise to see a Divisional game placed in one of the primetime slots. On Monday Night Football in Week 3 we have the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) hosting the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) with the winning team taking the lead in this Division.

The Dallas Cowboys have had back to back road games to open the season so this is the home opener for the team. The narrow loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then the narrow win over the Los Angeles Chargers has helped the Dallas Cowboys back up to 0.500, while their opponents Philadelphia have opened the season with a big win on the road at the Atlanta Falcons before losing to the San Francisco 49ers after making far too many mistakes in Week 2.

Injuries have piled up for the Eagles since then, but they are still expected to have enough talent to keep this close even if they are not able to win the game outright. They are helped by the fact that the Dallas Cowboys are pretty banged up early in the season too, although home advantage with the fans back in big numbers in this Stadium for the first time in just shy of two years has to be a huge motivation for the Cowboys players.

Dak Prescott missed much of 2020, but he has come back and looked like has not missed a beat, while he was given a huge amount of support by Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard on the ground in the win over the Chargers. That balance is key for the Cowboys considering they are without Michael Gallup and have a less than 100% Amari Cooper taking the field for Dak Prescott to find with his passes when he does step back to throw.

Running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line has been difficult so far this season, but they have lost some key players with the most notable being Brandon Graham. Others on this side of the ball could also be missing on Monday Night Football and that may see the Dallas Offensive Line, which is also not at full health, able to pick up from where they left off last week.

I expect the Dallas Cowboys to have success Offensively though and they have managed to do that against the Buccaneers and Chargers who both look to have decent Defensive units. With the Eagles being without some key players on this side of the ball, the Dallas Offensive Line could win in the trenches and at least see the home team moving the ball with some consistency.

However, I still think it is difficult to back the Dallas Cowboys to cover this number and that is largely down to the fact that they have not been in this situation so far this season. Both games have come under little pressure as they have been set as the underdog, but the fans will arrive with some real expectations in Week 3 and the Cowboys Defensive unit is one that has only been able to slow teams down when making some big plays.

Turnovers are an important part of any NFL game and Dallas have been able to make some huge Defensive plays which have kept them in games they have played. Even then, games have been very close with just 5 points combined deciding the first two games Dallas have played and the Eagles Offense has moved the ball well enough to believe they can score enough points in this one.

Injury is also playing a part on this side of the ball for the Eagles who could be down a couple of Linemen, but they will feel still believe there is enough paths for them to travel to keep the ball moving. The Cowboys have some issues on the Defensive Line which has seen them give up some big yards on the ground and I think the Eagles will be able to at least establish the ground Offense to give Jalen Hurts some strong support.

Jalen Hurts is now the starting Quarter Back in Philadelphia, but the fans will turn on him if he has another outing like the one in Week 2 when his mistakes proved costly in a narrow loss. He should have a better day in this one against this Dallas Secondary, but Hurts has to be aware of the turnovers the Cowboys are creating and has to make sure he is not telegraphing his throws.

The Quarter Back should have plenty of time in the pocket with the Eagles likely to have some success moving the ball on the ground and that should give Philadelphia every chance of keeping this one close even if they lose.

A backdoor cover would not be a massive surprise, but they will have to snap the streak in this series which has seen the home team cover in each of the last five between Dallas and Philadelphia.

Dallas were only 1-7 against the spread in their eight games in that spot under Mike McCarthy in 2020, and you do have to wonder if this is going to increase the pressure on them to perform. The Eagles have covered as the road favourite in a straight up win in Week 1 and I think Philadelphia can make enough plays to keep this Divisional game close in front of the wide television audience that will tune in to Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Detroit Lions + 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

College Football Week 3 Picks 2021 (September 18th)

A poor Week 1 has been followed by a much stronger Week 2 for the College Football Picks and now I will be looking for more from the selections as we get set for Week 3.

There are some big games coming up through Saturday.

It is a chance for some to redeem themselves and others to keep their perfect run going and that should mean plenty more drama having been treated to some big time Football already this season.

Boston College Eagles @ Temple Owls Pick: Seventeen returning starters split almost evenly across the Offensive and Defensive units would have been encouraging for the Boston College Eagles (2-0) going into the 2021 season. They have won at least six games for the fifth season in a row and many have tipped up Boston College as being able to win at least eight games for the first time since the 2009 season.

Some of the enthusiasm may have dissipated after Phil Jurkovec has been forced to undergo an operation on his hand which is likely going to keep the starting Quarter Back out for the entirety of the 2021 season. He had opened up from where he had left off in 2020 after throwing for over 2500 passing yards, but the injury means Boston College will have to hand the keys over to Dennis Grosel.

This is an experienced back up Quarter Back who did tie the single game record for passing yards in relief of Jurkovec last season, but Dennis Grosel will be under pressure to fill some big boots. It may also mean a change in schemes on the Offensive side of the ball with the Eagles likely to lean on their strong looking Offensive Line to pave the way for a Running Back committee that have shown they are ready to produce some big numbers.

In the first two games the Eagles Offensive Line have been very productive on the ground and they should be able to impose themselves on the improved Temple Owls (1-1) Defensive Line. Last season the Owls struggled to stop the run, but they are expected to be a little more stout this time around, although containing Boston College may still be beyond their capabilities.

I expect the entire Boston College team to step up and try and make up for their lost Quarter Back by giving their all to help Dennis Grosel out. Offensively the Quarter Back is capable of making some big plays himself, but I also expect the Eagles Defensive unit to try and contain Temple who are potentially playing with a very inexperienced Quarter Back of their own.

Justin Lynch performed well as the Owls bounced back from a crushing loss to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights by beating the Akron Zips in Week 2 of the season. However, this is another step up in level for Lynch who will be facing a Boston College Defensive unit that may be the best one they have seen in Chestnut Hill since 2017.

The early form is positive and it is going to be very difficult for Justin Lynch to move the ball with freedom like he did against the Zips last week. The Eagles Defensive Line has been strong and limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry and they will be looking to make the Owls rely on their Quarter Back in a one-dimensional manner which will give the Boston College Secondary to step up and make their plays.

Clamping down on the run and forcing some pressure up front has given the Eagles an opportunity to turn the ball over through the air, but the Defensive unit will be the first to admit that they have yet to be tested. I expect Temple will offer more resistance than the first two teams Boston College have beaten, but the Eagles still look stronger and I expect a big performance without their starting Quarter Back.

These teams are meeting for the first time since 2018, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between the Owls and Eagles, while the road team has covered in each of the last four between former Conference rivals.

Boston College have also covered in their last five games as the road favourite when playing off a double digit win as they are this week and I think the Eagles can cover what is a big spread for any road favourite to deal with.

Western Michigan Broncos @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: There is so much to like about this Pittsburgh Panthers (2-0) team who are vastly experienced and capable of reaching the ACC Championship Game. A big win on the road against an opponent from the SEC is encouraging, but Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has to make sure his team remain focused against a team they are expected to beat.

Take nothing away from the Western Michigan Broncos (1-1) who may be the best team playing in the MAC this season, but they were blown out when playing on the road at the Michigan Wolverines in Week 1. The Panthers may not be as strong as the Wolverines, but they have to show the difference in quality between a Power 5 Conference and a non-Power 5 Conference, especially as style points can be important even at this stage of the season.

Winning is the most important part of the game though and I do think it would be a major upset if Pittsburgh are not able to do that. They have eight Offensive starters back and the feeling is that this could be the strongest unit that Pat Narduzzi has had in five seasons, while the Panthers will also be targeting more than eight wins which is the most they have earned in a single season under this Head Coach.

Kenny Pickett is the star of the Offense at Quarter Back, but there are plenty of skill players all around him that he can lean on in any given game. Barring something truly terrible happening, Kenny Pickett is set to become the second leading passer in Pittsburgh school history and any time you can overtake Dan Marino, it means you have had one great career.

Pittsburgh's Offensive Line are looking for a bit more consistency on the ground and this looks a good chance for them to bully the Western Michigan Defensive Line which has given up 5.3 yards per carry. That number is heavily impacted by the game with the Michigan Wolverines, but the Broncos can't sell out to defend the run as they will be looking to try and slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack.

The Wolverines crushed Western Michigan on the ground in Week 1, but I do think the Broncos will have a tough day trying to prevent Kenny Pickett having success through the air. The Quarter Back has been well protected for the most part and Pickett has been able to find the creases in the Defenses he has seen which has helped Pittsburgh move the chains with success in both games played.

I do think the Panthers will be able to score plenty of points, but it is the Defensive unit that is likely going to be step up and help Pittsburgh cover the spread. Once again the Panthers Defensive Line looks like it is going to be very difficult to be moved around and they are likely going to make Western Michigan reliant on throwing the ball to keep the chains moving.

So far this season the Panthers have given up just 3 yards per carry and they will believe they can clamp down on the Western Michigan running game. That will only spark the Panthers pass rush which has been dominant in the first two weeks of the season and the Broncos may not get a lot of change from this Panthers Defensive unit.

You have to have a respect for Quarter Back Kaleb Eleby and the Broncos may be the best Offensive unit playing in the MAC, but this is a considerable step up in taking on a Power 5 team. That was an issue for Western Michigan against the Wolverines and this Pittsburgh team will feel they can make their visitors one-dimensional which should be a key in making some big plays on this side of the ball.

The Broncos are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog, while Pittsburgh are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. However, the Panthers can be hard to trust as a home favourite, while Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has a poor record in covering the spread when favoured by double digits against Group of 5 opponents.

Off a big win it is a concern, but this is not a look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh so I expect a fully focused effort from them. They should have too much power on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that will be enough for the Panthers to go on and cover in Week 3.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: The West Virginia Mountaineers (1-1) bounced back from a Week 1 defeat to the Maryland Terrapins and now they are going to be defending a strong record at home when facing non-Conference opponents in front of their own fans.

This week it is the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) heading to Morgantown as the team look to continue to cool down the hot seat that Head Coach Justin Fuente is sitting on. This is a team who are bringing back plenty of starters, but who saw their 27 year run in Bowl Games end in 2020 when the Hokies could only finish the season with a 5-6 record.

It is perhaps surprising the Head Coach did not lose his job, but an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels has been followed up with a confident win over Middle Tennessee and that has to be very encouraging for Virginia Tech fans. However, expectations will really rise if they are able to win here and move to 3-0 for the first time since 2017, especially as Virginia Tech have a very winnable game in Week 4 which could see them become the team to beat in the ACC Coastal Division.

No one can afford to look too far ahead after the kind of years Virginia Tech have had, and they can certainly not afford to look past the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mountaineers have won their last eighteen at home against non-Conference opponents and they have seventeen starters back this season in what many consider to be Neal Brown's best team in his third year with West Virginia.

Managing the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be so important for both the Hokies and Mountaineers. The two Defensive Lines have come out with strong performances and they will certainly feel they can plug up the running lanes and force the Quarter Backs to try and win this game with their arm.

Out of the two teams, Virginia Tech have had a bit more success establishing the run, while their Offensive Line has been stronger in pass protection than the Mountaineers. The Hokies also have a fierce pass rush which has opened the season in good form and they will feel they have the pressure up front to try and disrupt the West Virginia passing game.

Jarret Doege is very experienced at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers and he has produced some big numbers in the first two games of the season. Despite the pressure being generated by the Defensive Line, Virginia Tech's Secondary have given up some plays and that has to be encouraging for Jarret Doege considering how much the Mountaineers are likely going to be leaning on his arm.

It will likely mean Virginia Tech are going to need to get a bit more out of Braxton Burmeister if they are going to win on the road and it is a big challenge for the Hokies who won't have played in this kind of atmosphere for almost two years. That can knock a team out of sync with what they want to do and the Mountaineers have a decent Secondary that may feel they can make enough plays to force the Hokies into becoming very predictable Offensively.

I have to respect how tough Virginia Tech can be as a road underdog under the guidance of their current Head Coach, but West Virginia are strong at home. The environment should give them the edge and the Mountaineers were 3-1 against the spread as the home favourite last season, while this may be a stronger team this time around.

Virginia Tech are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road anyway and now face a true test of their character.

The Mountaineers are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite, while they have covered in their last eight games when playing a non-Conference opponent at home and being asked to lay fewer than 17 points. There isn't much between these teams, but I think the game being played in Morgantown is enough of an edge with the Mountaineers to be able to back them to win and cover.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators Pick: These two teams met in the SEC Championship in 2020 and it was a highly competitive game, but the feeling is that this regular season meeting may be a little different. Both the Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Florida Gators (2-0) have been perfect so far on the season, but there has been a difference in class of opponent and Alabama are worthy of their place as the road favourite.

Losing key players to the NFL is something that Nick Saban and his entire Coaching staff expect most seasons, while Steve Sarkisian has also left the Crimson Tide this summer. Lesser teams will have been hurt by those departures, but Alabama recruit really well and they are always ready to compete, which is underlined by the fact they have been a constant in the College Football PlayOff having missed out just once.

Mac Jones has moved to the NFL and started for the New England Patriots in Week 1, but there has been a lot of talk about Bryce Young and the Quarter Back has not disappointed. He will be playing his first road game, but Young has to be looking forward to taking on this Florida Defensive unit that struggled in 2020 and who have only returned five starters.

The Gators have not faced anyone near the kind of level of the Crimson Tide, but there have been holes that can be exploited in the Secondary. It is very hard to imagine that the Alabama Crimson Tide are not able to do the same with a big, strong Offensive Line able to protect Bryce Young and also pave the way for some big gains on the ground.

I do think there will be times when Bryce Young is put under pressure by the Florida pass rush, while he is going to be playing in a very difficult environment for the first time. Even then, I expect the new Offensive Co-Ordinator, Bill O'Brien, to put his team in a positive position when they have the ball and the challenge for Dan Mullen and his Florida team is scoring enough points to keep up with their visitors.

Alabama scored at least 38 points in each of their games in the regular season last season, while they have scored 40 or more points in 11 straight regular season games.

That doesn't offer much encouragement for the Florida Gators who gave up 52 points in their defeat to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Gators only lost by 6 points in that game thanks to Kyle Trask and the Offensive unit, but they are only returning five starters on this side of the ball and Trask has moved onto the NFL.

Emory Jones and Anthony Robinson have been splitting reps behind Center in the first two games of the season, but the former has not impressed and the Florida faithful are pushing for Robinson to be named the starter. However, Anthony Robinson may have picked up an injury in Week 2 which could limit his impact on this game and it just makes it very hard to believe Florida can score enough points to stay with the National Championship favourites.

It would be hard enough if Jones was in form and Robinson was 100% ready to go, but facing an Alabama team who are bringing back eight starters on the Defensive side of the ball is always going to be a big test. The Crimson Tide may have their best Defense in years and that is saying plenty when you think of some of the talent that has played for this team and I think they are going to make a statement on this side of the ball.

The Gators Offensive Line have been able to run the ball against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, but this Alabama Defensive Line is not one that can be bullied. I expect they will clamp down on the run and force Florida to try and beat their Secondary and I simply don't believe they can do that.

The Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road favourite, while Florida are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight overall.

Dan Mullen is a Head Coach I respect and he is 2-0 against the spread when Florida have been set as the underdog at home since taking over here. His Mississippi State Bulldogs team were also very strong against the spread when set as the underdog and I think Mullen will have a game plan to make life difficult for Alabama, but the quality between the teams is going to be very difficult to bridge.

As long as Bryce Young is able to handle the occasion, Alabama may just put down a marker for their season and produce a statement win.

MY PICKS: Boston College Eagles - 14 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Panthers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Arkansas Razorbacks - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Stanford - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)