The French Open continues on Saturday and we move into the remainder of the Third Round with a number of matches still being held over from Friday. It has been a mixed tournament for my Tennis Picks with some late collapses proving costly, but for the most part the big names have managed to work their way into a position to reach the second week.
Hopefully my picks will improve into the business end of the French Open too.
Fabio Fognini v Roberto Bautista Agut: A lingering leg injury was a concern for Fabio Fognini going into the French Open and one that has been threatening to prevent the Italian from having his best showing at a Slam since he reached the Quarter Final in Paris back in 2011. That is the only time Fognini has ever reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam, but winning the Monte Carlo Masters has given his supporters belief that at 32 years old he is ready to reach a new career high Ranking.
The Monte Carlo Masters is not a compulsory event like the Madrid and Rome Masters which are also played on the clay, but Fognini impressed with wins over Borna Coric and Rafael Nadal. Even his runs in Madrid and Rome have been ended by quality operators like Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas which suggests Fognini is more than capable of reaching the second week at the French Open and going deep into the draw.
Both of his wins this past week have come in four sets, but Fognini has looked good in both matches and it does ease some of the concerns about his general fitness. The opponents might not have been the best, but his performance in seeing off Federico Delbonis has to be respected even if the Italian will know he is going to have to step up a little more if he is going to reach the second week of the tournament.
In front of him is Roberto Bautista Agut who has crushed two Americans on his way through to the Third Round. He has not been threatened in either match, but Bautista Agut has to be feeling good about his chances despite having a pretty mixed clay court campaign prior to the French Open beginning.
While Fognini's defeats in the last couple of months have come against top 10 Ranked players, Bautista Agut has compiled a 5-5 record on the clay with just a single match agains one of the elite players. The numbers overall are actually quite similar, but Fognini has been very good against players outside of the top 10 of the World Rankings since the start of the Monte Carlo Masters and that may give him a slight edge in this one.
It is Fognini who leads the head to head 7-3 against Bautista Agut and that record is 3-1 on the clay courts. In those matches the Italian has held a narrow edge as far as the service hold percentage is concerned and I do think Fognini can get the better of Bautista Agut in a match that could easily go the distance with plenty of breaks of serve for both players.
Roberto Bautista Agut did beat Fabio Fognini on the hard courts in Miami in March, but I will look for the latter to gain a measure of revenge with a victory in this good looking Third Round match.
Gael Monfils - 7.5 games v Antonie Hoang: One of my key changes made when it comes to making selections on the Tennis over the last couple of years is not getting overly carried away by opposing players who have stunning, unexpected runs in tournaments out of seemingly left field. Antonie Hoang is enjoying something of that kind of run having been given a Wild Card into the French Open and stunning Damir Dzumhur and Fernando Verdasco in back to back matches.
At the moment Hoang is outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings, but this run is going to give him a huge boost. It is surprising when you think Hoang has never played a main Tour match on the clay courts before and especially so when you consider he was just 2-4 in lower level events on the surface in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season.
Being in front of home supporters must be a real help to Hoang, but in this Third Round match I imagine the crowd are going to be less boisterous than they would have been in normal circumstances. The fact that Hoang is playing Gael Monfils is a tough position to be in as most of the home crowd will love the veteran who has enjoyed the majority of this success at the Grand Slam level in his home Slam.
Antonie Hoang has already spent almost seven hours on court through the first couple of matches as his serve has not been a dominant weapon for him. He has returned well, but his level prior to the French Open suggests it may be difficult for him to keep that up through another match.
Gael Monfils has not exactly been inspiring on the clay courts prior to this tournament, but his two wins have been very easy so far this week. The time spent of court has not even reached four hours yet and that fitness edge can see him break down Hoang, especially if he continues to return as effectively as he has in the first two Rounds.
The mental edge could also belong to Monfils who Hoang would have watched for many years now as he built his way onto the professional circuit. This is a large number of games if Monfils is perhaps not playing up to the level he has produced so far at the French Open, but I think Hoang could be feeling it physically by the middle of this one which should give the veteran Frenchman the chance to pull away.
Jan-Lennard Struff-Borna Coric over 36.5 games: I have been pretty high on Borna Coric for a while and been waiting for him to make his first really serious impact at a Grand Slam. The ever improving Croatian could finally be ready to reach the business end of the second week of a Grand Slam event here in Paris and I have backed him in the first two Rounds and see no reason to jump off the bandwagon at this moment in time.
Then again I should really note that I am 2-0 backing Jan-Lennard Struff so far in the tournament too after he came through his Second Round match in four sets. It was a tougher match than I was expecting for Struff who was dragged into three tie-breakers against Radu Albot before being able to pull away in the fourth set and secure his place in the Third Round.
The German will be well aware that he needs to step up another level when he faces Coric in this Third Round match, although they are 2-2 in previous matches on the Tour. However it is Coric who has won the last two of those including their sole previous meeting on a clay court which occurred in Madrid in 2018 when Struff struggled in all aspects of his game.
His performances so far in Paris suggests Struff will give Coric more to think about than he did in their match in Madrid twelve months ago. The levels produced in the build up to the French Open also shows the improvement Struff has made as he has pushed the top 20 players he has faced with strong serving giving him a platform to build on.
Winning ten games in two sets against Rafael Nadal in Barcelona underlines the problems Struff can cause, but Borna Coric has been playing at a superb level himself. He has made much more serene progress through to the Third Round although the time spent on the court is similar and I think this is going to be a match that is serve-orientated which gives it every chance of surpassing the total games market.
My edge is with Coric and I do think he has a chance of covering the handicap over the course of the match, but I will be surprised if Struff is going away quietly. I would expect the German to at least steal one set and that should give the match every chance of surpassing the total games, especially as Coric has dipped in a set in each of his two wins here.
I would love this match to land on Simone-Mathieu to add to the serving statistics considering the players believe that is a court playing faster than the other two main courts here. Even if it doesn't, I still see the two players combining for at least 37 games here with both taking a set during the course of the match.
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 games v Andrea Petkovic: I have so much respect for what Ashleigh Barty has been able to do to improve her tennis over the last couple of years, but the clay courts remain her most vulnerable surface. This is a player who has produced outstanding numbers on the hard courts and clay courts in the last twelve months, but her clay level has been merely 'good'.
Earlier this season Barty made the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam as a Singles player for the first time and she could really make some headway with her World Ranking if she can win another couple of matches in Paris. After that Barty will be heading into the grass court season as a real danger at Wimbledon and the young Australian looks like she has made the right decision in returning to the Tour.
Barty has spent a little over two hours on court to progress to the Third Round and her win over Danielle Collins in the Second Round was very impressive. The Aussie is serving very well and that opens up her entire game as she can put plenty of pressure on the return of serve which can see her not only win matches, but win by dominant margins.
Ashleigh Barty had not been at complete ease on the clay courts in the build up to the French Open as she has dropped at least one set in five of her six matches. However she has managed to put together strong straight sets wins in each of the first two Rounds at the French Open and now faces veteran Andrea Petkovic who has found it tough to return to the level she once produced.
The German has to be respected having won back to back matches, but Petkovic has spent a long time on the court and that could be a real problem when facing someone like Barty. Back to back three set wins have taken four and a half hours of court time, while Petkovic can be considering fortunate to have beaten both Alison Riske and Su-Wei Hsieh.
In the lead up to the French Open, Andrea Petkovic has been struggling with her return and that puts pressure on her to find her best serving displays. I would expect Barty to have an edge in both serve and return, while I can't ignore the fact that Petkovic was beaten twice by Maria Sakkari and also lost to Angelique Kerber by wide margins when facing them on the clay courts over the last couple of months.
They are the only top 50 Ranked opponents she has faced on the surface and Petkovic's second serve and return were not good enough. The win over Hsieh should give her belief, but Petkovic needed to win eight games in the final set to move through to the Third Round and I think Barty is going to have too much for her all around in this one.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Sofia Kenin: In a season where Serena Williams was stunned in the Quarter Final of the Australian Open by Karolina Pliskova and hit with injuries throughout the first five months, it was no surprise to see her at a big price to win the French Open. The lack of tennis and pictures of Serena sitting in a wheelchair days before the second Grand Slam of the season was to begin was a real concern and Williams began the tournament by dropping the first set played 6-2.
Things have dramatically turned around for her since then as she has won the last four sets played by scores of 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 and Williams herself stated she was feeling stronger in the last press conference she did. You can't completely write off the injury worries as something that won't affect her going forward, but Williams is looking very strong through the first week of the French Open and she is always a threat once she makes the second week of a Slam.
It is up to compatriot Sofia Kenin to prevent Williams from reaching the Fourth Round and the younger American has needed to win just one match to make it through to the Third Round. She had to battle hard for that victory and this remains a huge challenge for Kenin who has yet to really feel comfortable on the clay courts.
A win over Madison Keys in Rome and then a tight three set loss to eventual Rome Champion Karolina Pliskova shows what Kenin can be capable of, but she is just 1-4 in clay court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents. In that time she has struggled with the return of serve and now she faces arguably the greatest women's server of all time in this Third Round match.
Serena Williams has lost just 18 points on her serve in the last four sets played in Paris and I think she is going to be put Kenin into a tough position of having to serve exceptionally well to stay with her. It is a big challenge for Kenin who struggled with that shot in her defeats to Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova on this surface in 2019.
The former World Number 1 has won at least 50% of return points won in three of the last four sets she has competed and I think Williams will grind down Kenin in this one too. I wouldn't be massively surprised if the first set is pretty competitive, but at some point I do think Serena Williams is going to go on a run of games and that should give her every chance to cover this number on her way through to the Fourth Round.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff-Borna Coric Over 36.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem Win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 39-34, + 1.96 Units (146 Units Staked, + 1.34% Yield)
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