Tennis Picks 2019 (June 20th)

I really can't have asked for much more from the last two days of Tennis Picks which have come back with a 15-3 record and one match being voided (while the player I had picked was 6-2, 2-0 ahead).

After a difficult opening week on the grass, this week has turned things right back around and moved this portion of the season back into a profit as we continue surging towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon.

Like I said on Wednesday, this is not the time to pat yourself on the back, but instead focus and double down on trying to keep the positive momentum going. I was glad to end the day with another winning record to keep pushing along, but I do expect more from myself as we move into completing the Second Round at the various events being played this week.


The rain in London has not let up as much as the organisers of the Queens tournament would have wanted and that does mean there are still some First Round matches that have to be completed. One of those was my selection from Tuesday picking Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Kyle Edmund and cover the handicap mark, but those two players will have to complete their match on Thursday and the winner is likely going to have to play again later in the day.

Below you can see my selections from the Second Round matches that are scheduled to be played as we complete the Quarter Final line up for Friday. All of the events should be back on track by then, although I do think the tournament at Queens should swallow their pride and get the matches started at 11am rather than Midday which has been the case so far this week.

It will be fair to those players who need to complete their First Round matches to have some rest before the Second Round match later in the day and will also ensure the tournament is back on track and not affected by any lingering weather in the Barons Court area.

The schedule will be out by the time most read this so we will see, I was just a little disappointed they didn't have the early start on Wednesday which would have got at least one and perhaps two more matches through per court.


Steve Johnson-Alexander Zverev over 22.5 games: This has the making of a really good Second Round match and especially if Alexander Zverev continues to struggle to find the level he is capable of reaching. It has been a difficult couple of months for Zverev who was fortunate to come away with a straight sets win over Robin Haase in the First Round here in Halle after losing to Dustin Brown in his first match in Stuttgart last week.

In this one Zverev is going to have improve again when he takes on Steve Johnson who has proven to be very comfortable on the grass courts. The American had a very good win over Philipp Kohlschreiber as the underdog in the First Round and he has the kind of game that can make life very difficult for Zverev if he is not at his best on the day.

There is no doubt that Johnson is only going to go as far as his serve will carry him even if he has shown improvement on the return side of his game as far as the grass courts are concerned. However we saw in Stuttgart last week that Johnson still needs to get more out of his serve if he is going to have strong runs on this surface.

He has held 85% of his service games, but Johnson has won 63% of points behind serve in his two matches on the surface. That is a few ticks down on the usual level he has found on the grass and it has forced the American to have to dig in on the return, although to be fair to him the last twelve months have seen Johnson produce very well on that side of his game.

I would expect Johnson to test Alexander Zverev who is holding 80% of his service games on the grass courts in 2019. The major worry for the home player is that his break percentage is down on previous years and there has been a slight lack of confidence from Zverev on that side of his game in recent weeks which have led to tougher matches than expected.

As I said in the First Round, I do think Zverev is finding it difficult to win matches easily and I can see both players being just good enough on serve to get into a position to surpass the number of total games. There is every chance of the match needing three sets to separate them, but tie-breakers should be in play and even a long two setter can't be ruled out to help get over the number.


Roger Federer-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over 22.5 games: A match that could easily be a Final in Halle rather than a Second Round takes place on Thursday and I wanted to write out a few thoughts about.

Roger Federer is one of the greatest grass court players of all time and he comes into his usual Wimbledon warm up off a fantastic Roland Garros. He had a strong win over John Millman in the First Round and the serve is a potent weapon on the surface which is going to make him very tough to beat when it comes to SW19 next month.

However this is a real challenge for Federer when he takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is very comfortable on the grass himself. He has a big first serve which can set him up to get through service games very comfortably and their one previous match on the grass saw Tsonga come from 2-0 down to beat Federer in five sets.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been producing some very good numbers behind serve and I expect it is going to be a tough match for Federer with a declining return game. There are still those moments Federer puts together which makes it hard to oppose him on the handicap, but I think Tsonga is going to serve big enough to force at least one tie-breaker.

The Frenchman is also someone who can put his returns together even if he is not the most convincing behind that shot. I expect he will have limited success against this Federer serve considering the former World Number has held 87% of service games played against him in their head to heads, but I have enough faith in the Tsonga serve to see him give Federer enough issues and help carry this match over the total games line.


Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There was a real statistic attached to Maria Sharapova's First Round win in Mallorca that surprised me and that is that the former World Number 1 had not had a grass court win since 2015. I know injury and suspension has prevented Sharapova from playing a lot of grass court tennis in that time, but even then it was a real shock to read that.

The Russian was very happy with her performance in her win over Viktoria Kuzmova after Sharapova returned to the Tour following a long injury lay off. She has slipped down the World Rankings and you have to feel the next few months are very important for Maria Sharapova who won't want to have to Qualify for the biggest tournaments out there.

She doesn't have a lot of points to defend on the grass this year, but Sharapova will simply be hoping she has got through her First Round match without a negative reaction from the shoulder which has been keeping her off the Tour. The level of opponent goes up significantly in the Second Round in Mallorca too as she faces another former World Number 1 in Angelique Kerber.

The German is also the defending Wimbledon Champion and will be hoping a move from the clay onto the grass is going to reignite her season. This has been a time of the season that Kerber has enjoyed in the past with the extra pop she can get out of the serve and the movement she enjoys on the grass makes her a very difficult opponent to beat.

Angelique Kerber has set some high standards for herself to the point where it does feel her 2019 season has not been as strong as it should have been. She had to battle through the First Round and I do wonder if Kerber is fully healthy at the moment, but I think she is going to be someone who can challenge Sharapova who also has some fitness doubts around her.

In fact Kerber has won their sole previous match on the grass and crushed Sharapova when these two met at the Australian Open eighteen months ago. That should help her mentally, but this is going to be a tough match either way especially if Sharapova is able to perform to the level she did in the First Round.

For a long time the Sharapova first serve has been a huge weapon for her on the grass and she will need to get plenty of those in if she is going to upset Kerber. I do think Sharapova will have her moments, but her match rustiness may show up over the course of the match and I will look for Kerber's strong grass court pedigree to come through.


Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Qiang Wang: It is remarkable to think that Venus Williams turned 39 years old at the beginning of this week and yet still wants to be out there competing on the WTA Tour as she does. While no one is going to be surprised to read that Venus Williams is not the player she once was, her experience and continued success on the grass courts makes her a dangerous opponent on this surface.

The elder of the Williams sisters came through her First Round without too many problems on Wednesday, but playing back to back days gets harder the older you get and that is the challenge for her.

It does have to be noted that Qiang Wang also had to play her First Round match on Wednesday having seen the rain disrupt the tennis in Birmingham on Tuesday. However she is much younger than Venus Williams and her recovery time may be superior at this stage of their careers.

Even then, Venus Williams is the right favourite in this Second Round match. Her grass court pedigree has to be respected and it also has to be said that Wang has yet to show a real affinity with the surface. While having a good win in the First Round, Qiang Wang has struggled with her return on the grass and now she has to face a solid server like Williams on a surface where she may not feel her best.

These two actually met at Wimbledon a couple of years ago and it was Williams who came through after they split two tough sets to start. When you combine their three previous matches, Williams has had the better of the service numbers and I do think that is going to be the difference between them on the day too.

It won't be an easy match for Venus Williams considering how much Qiang Wang can get out of her own serve when at her best. However we have yet to see Wang put it all together on the grass and I think that makes the former Wimbledon Champion the selection to win and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson-Alexander Zverev Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 22.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.75 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 20-6, + 25.32 Units (52 Units Staked, + 48.69% Yield)