Tennis Picks 2019 (June 17th)

The first week on the grass courts was not a great one for the Tennis Picks, but at one stage it was looking a lot worse than it ended up being.

As I have mentioned at the time, the small sample of grass court statistics to back up the selections does make things a little more difficult to read, but that is something I am trying to factor into the Picks from this time of the season. There isn't a lot of time to get into rhythm on a grass court where matches can be won and lost very quickly, which is always a concern when you make any Picks, and it doesn't take a lot of breaks of serves to secure sets.

That is factored into some of the spreads that we will see over the next couple of weeks and it is something to consider.


This week we have the biggest events that are played before Wimbledon on the surface, but it looks like another potentially wet week all around. The usually warm June weather we expect to see in Europe has not materialised as most would have been hoping for and I do think there will be some delays in the days ahead.

In Halle those look like they will be coming later in the week, but in London and Birmingham we could see the early part of the tournament being affected by the weather. It will mean some players will be asked to play twice in a single day to maintain their push through the draw, which can be highly frustrating, but the hope is that better weather is to come by the time Wimbledon rolls around.


Monday does tend to be one of the slow burners at the start of the week in a new tournament, but there are quite a few First Round matches that have been scheduled with Qualifiers completed on Sunday. Below you can see my selections for the day as well as the updated season totals after a poor week for the Tennis Picks.


Steve Johnson v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The tournament being played in Halle comes in a week where a number of the bigger names on the Tour will be looking to get some competitive grass court tennis underneath their legs. Roger Federer is the top Seed in Halle, but it is a competitive draw and the chance for some really important Ranking points to be earned if putting a strong run together.

Both Steve Johnson and Philipp Kohlschreiber have to believe they are capable of performing effectively enough on the grass to have a chance of doing that. The winner is likely going to face Alexander Zverev in the Second Round, but that match looks as winnable as it can with the German being out of consistent form, and both Johnson and Kohlschreiber will have a lot of belief if they can get out of this match.

Neither had the week they would have liked in Stuttgart last week with an opening loss so there is some pressure for them to have a stronger week in Halle where there are more Ranking points available. I have to say I am a touch surprised with the prices and I do think the wrong player is being favoured in this First Round match, although it could be the factor of Kohlschreiber playing at home which is perhaps seeing him edge favouritism.

In their previous meeting on the grass it was Kohlscreiber who won too, but that was back in June 2017 and there has been some improvement in the Johnson game since then. Both players will be very keen to get plenty of first serves in play which will set them up to run through those games effectively, but it is Johnson who looks to be showing the superior returning that can make the difference in this one.

Returning serve on the grass has been ineffective from Kohlschreiber who won just 29% of points against the Miomir Kecmanovic serve last week. In 2017 the German broke in only 12% of return games and in 2018 that number slipped to 11%, while there has been a clear decline in Kohlschreiber's performances on that side of his game.

Over the last twelve months Johnson has broken in 21% of return games played on the grass and he was successful getting into the Gael Monfils service games last week. It won't be easy against the Kohlschreiber serve, but Johnson should have the slight edge when it comes to the return of serve and I think that makes the underdog an appealing player to back in this First Round match.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Last week was a little disappointing for Gael Monfils in his Second Round defeat in Stuttgart, but the Frenchman is someone who is capable of playing on the grass courts. He will be expecting a lot better from himself when the Tour moves to Halle, although Monfils could have perhaps been hoping for a better First Round draw than facing compatriot Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

You would think Herbert's style would be well suited to the grass with his ambitions of getting to the net and being able to employ serve-volley tactics, but it hasn't really happened for him on the Singles court just yet. He was also beaten in the Second Round last week in his first grass court action of the 2019 season and Herbert needs to find a way to get a little more out of the serve.

In 2017 Herbert was holding just shy of 80% of the service games he played on the grass, but that number slipped a little bit in 2018 and he was broken too many times last week in Hertogenbosch. Breaks of serve on the grass courts should be a rarity if you are on top of your game, but Herbert was broken at least twice in each match played and that puts pressure on what is a limited returning game.

The two matches last week is a very limited sample as Herbert actually had some success on the return, but in the last couple of years it has not been a strength for him on the grass. I do think he could have some joy if Gael Monfils is not able to improve his own standards from what he showed in Stuttgart, but the higher Ranked Frenchman has also shown he can get his teeth in return games and I do think he can make enough balls back in play to put Herbert under pressure.

Last week might have just been a poor week for Monfils whose serve has been much more effective on the grass in 2017 and 2018. I think he should have more chances of getting through those games against an opponent like Herbert and Monfils' return should prove to be a decisive factor in being able to help him through to the Second Round with a good looking win on the board.


Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev over 21.5 games: The final match on the opening Monday in Halle sees the German Number 1 take to the court as Alexander Zverev tries to get his season turned back around. It has been a difficult couple of months for Zverev who has struggled with the kind of consistency we would have come to expect from him.

A defeat to Dustin Brown in Stuttgart last week is not a good look for Zverev as he is just having a difficult moment when the critical point in matches has been reached. He couldn't take the break points that he was creating in that match, but the serve has been a shot that has yet to really push on and give Zverev the chance to keep opponents off of him too.

Alexander Zverev has got plenty out of his serve on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but I would be concerned with the amount of break points Brown was able to earn last week. In this First Round match in Halle Zverev is taking on a limited returner in Robin Haase too which is why he is such a big favourite to progress to the Second Round, but Haase can't be coming into the match without any belief.

The Dutchman is a former title winner on the grass courts and he is someone who has given Zverev plenty to think about in previous matches between these two. In the last eighteen months Haase has won two of the three matches between himself and Zverev, and he has had enough joy in the return of serve to think he has a chance in this match.

Those previous matches have largely been competitive affairs too and I do think Zverev's current form is going to mean he is needing to dig deep to win the match. I would be a touch concerned with the relatively poor service numbers that Robin Haase has produced on the grass courts in recent years, but he is someone who can play very well on the surface when finding his best form and I can see both players being in a position to win the sets.

With every chance of seeing three sets I am going to look for the total games line to be surpassed. Even a competitive straight sets win for either player should see this number of games covered on a grass court and that is going to be my selection from this match.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 70.87 Units (1002 Units Staked, + 7.07% Yield)