The next couple of days look a little iffy as far as the weather goes, but I think there is going to be enough time to get the matches through to keep the tournaments on schedule. The main events being affected are in the United Kingdom, but there is still plenty of tennis to be played on Tuesday when the First Round is set to be concluded in Birmingham, London, Halle and Mallorca.
Monday proved to be a rough start, but a strong finish to the day saw a winning record produced. There are a few more First Round matches that fitted into my criteria which you can see below and I have also updated the record for the week.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: A Protected Ranking is giving Jo-Wilfried Tsonga the opportunity to play some big events without the need to go through Qualifying or ask for a Wild Card, but there is some pressure on him to put some strong runs together. Over the next couple of months there is nothing in terms of points for Tsonga to defend, so there is a chance for him to start to steadily climb the World Rankings from his current Number 77 spot.
He has not been benefiting from too many kind draws as his Second Round loss at the French Open to Kei Nishikori will highlight. The problem when dropping down the World Rankings is the likelihood of having to face some of the higher Seeds early in the draws and the same happened in Stuttgart last week when Tsonga was beaten by Milos Raonic whose Ranking remains relatively high despite missing huge parts of the 2019 season through injury too.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was an unfortunate loser last week to Raonic when you think of the way he actually performed, but he will be looking to put a better run together in Halle. The grass courts have long suited him simply because of the pop he gets out of the serve and Tsonga has held at least 90% of his service game in the last few seasons, although he did miss 2018.
A real reason he has not really been able to push on and put together long winning runs is the relatively limited return game, but Tsonga may have chances to use the pressure exerted from his serve to break down the game of his compatriot Benoit Paire.
Benoit Paire is off a very strong clay court season where he put plenty of wins together, but this is a player who still flatters to deceive more often than not. He hasn't had the worst time on the grass, but Benoit Paire's serve is not quite as strong as Tsonga's and he is not a totally productive returner to think he can overcome those issues.
He did beat Tsonga for the first time on the clay when coming from a set behind in early April, but I think this surface favours Tsonga much more than Paire. That was the first meeting since 2015 so head to head is not a massive advantage for Tsonga, although I do appreciate the fact he has looked after serve much more effectively in the main and has had his eye in on the Paire serve too.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a tie-breaker in one of the sets in this one, but I think the Tsonga serve will keep Paire under mental pressure of having to hold onto his own serve. That should play a part in the Tsonga win on Tuesday in this First Round match and I think he will also cover the number.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There is no doubt that it is easy to get carried away by the big servers on a grass court because this is one surface where they do have the real ability to take the racquet out of the hands of an opponent. You could argue the same can be said for some of the hard courts out there, but grass has always felt like having that consistent element of one break of serving being enough to win sets.
Someone like Taylor Fritz certainly looks like he could be a solid enough grass court performer as he matures on the Tour, but I am not sure he is comfortable enough on the surface right now to be priced as he is for this match. Unsurprisingly Fritz does hold plenty of games on the grass, but I don't think having around an 80% hold number over the last three years is as good as it could be.
It certainly doesn't make his serve unbreakable and an opponent like Roberto Bautista Agut does have the returning to make life awkward. In general Bautista Agut manages to get plenty out of that aspect of his game on the grass courts and last year he was a Semi Finalist in Halle which shows he is more than a capable performer on courts where Spaniards can struggle.
The Bautista Agut serve is not the most reliable of shots, but he does get enough pop out of the first serve to really give Fritz some problems in this First Round match. While Bautista Agut has some strong returning numbers, Fritz has really struggled with his return on the grass courts in recent years and it can't be ignored that he broke in just 8% of return games played in Hertogenbosch last week.
One of those matches was against an opponent Ranked outside the top 200 and I think Fritz will struggle to back up the upset he had over Bautista Agut on the clay courts in mid-May. The Spaniard already earned a measure of revenge by crushing Fritz at the French Open, and I think it is important to note that Fritz has only broken in 6% of return games against Bautista Agut from their four previous matches against each other.
At the same time Bautista Agut is up at 21% of return games with breaks converted against the American and I like RBA to win and cover in the First Round in Halle.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: The 2017 Queens Champion has been given a Wild Card into the main draw in 2019, but Feliciano Lopez will be earning a lot more headlines when he partners Andy Murray in the Doubles as the former World Number 1 makes a return to the Tour. That is obviously going to be a fun experience for Lopez, but his main focus has to be putting a run together in London which will help reverse what is a slipping World Ranking.
These days Lopez is sitting outside the top 100 of the Rankings, but he is something of a grass court specialist and not someone that many players will want to oppose in the early Rounds either here or at Wimbledon next month. Last week Lopez was very, very unfortunate to go down to a loss to Lucas Pouille in Stuttgart having won a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw, but at least those wins will make him feel a little better about his game.
It is the Lopez serve that can lay the foundation for any success the Spaniard is going to have on the grass courts. In three of the last four seasons he has won at least 70% of points behind his serve which makes it very difficult to get into a position to break the Lopez serve, while last week he won 72% of points behind serve and managed to hold 96% of service games played.
This is the challenge that is in front of Marton Fucsovics who may be the higher Ranked player, but who has not had the same kind of success on the grass as Lopez has had. His return game wasn't in bad shape last week in Stuttgart before Fucsovics ran into the huge serving Milos Raonic and I think the difficulty he had against the Canadian could be replicated here.
The Fucsovics serve is going to have to be in good form to stay with Lopez, but he has not had nearly as much success holding serve on the grass. However I won't ignore the fact that Lopez is a pretty limited returner and rarely has massive success breaking serve.
With that said, I do think the Lopez serve is one that can put Fucsovics under the kind of mental pressure where he could be forced into mistakes on his own serve. He will need to get a high percentage of first serves in play and focus on the Lopez backhand, which really isn't a shot to be overly worried about, but any second serves will see the Spaniard try and get into the net and I think that will give him every chance of winning this match and covering this number of games.
It could be a damper day in London than it has been on Monday which may just reduce the potency of the Lopez serve, but if he is out there early enough I think he will have the edge in this one.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Kyle Edmund: This is an intriguing First Round match at Queens between two players who have looked a part of the 'Next Gen' stars on the ATP Tour, but neither have had a lot of success playing grass court tennis. Last week Stefanos Tsitsipas was beaten in his first match on the grass by Nicolas Jarry in Hertogenbosch, while Kyle Edmund returns to play his first competitive match since injury forced him out of the French Open.
Just because Edmund is from Great Britain the feeling is that he should be comfortable on the grass courts, but that has not been the case for him so far. 2018 was the first time Edmund had finished the grass court campaign with a winning record, but he remains 10-22 on the surface and the return of serve continues to be an issue for him.
I can't dismiss the Edmund serve if he is feeling healthy as there have been some real improvements out of that shot over the last couple of years. He is a tough player to break when he is feeling confident and I have long made it clear that Stefanos Tsitsipas is a player that will become as good as we think he can be when he is able to improve his returning numbers.
There isn't a great sample of matches that Tsitsipas has played on the grass courts to make sweeping statements, but I think there is something in the fact he has broken in 15% of return games played on the surface. In 2018 he improved the mark to 18% of return games ending with a break of serve, but that is very similar to the marks Tsitsipas has on the hard courts and there is definitely room to improve.
On this occasion it could be as much down to the fact that Edmund is not completely healthy which makes Tsitsipas an appealing back. The Tsitsipas serve is a potent weapon on every surface and that goes for the grass courts too and I would expect him to be able to put Edmund under pressure and find the breaks of serve he will need to cover this number.
It wouldn't surprise to see the match being a relatively short one as both players should be able to rattle through some service games very quickly. At the end of it I would expect the Greek star to be the one that earns the majority of the break points though and he can win and cover in this match.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: The draw that has come together at Queens this week is an intriguing one and the layers are finding it very difficult pricing up potential winners. You can see the quality of the draw from some of the First Round matches we are getting and this one between Juan Martin Del Potro and Denis Shapovalov should feature plenty of big hitting.
Injuries have been a big factor in Del Potro's career and you can never be sure he is going into any time of the season feeling at 100%. At the French Open there were signs he was not at his best, but Del Potro has a very big game that can be difficult for opponents to deal with.
The Argentinian has also been comfortable on the grass courts for much of his career and he has some strong runs at Wimbledon which makes him a player that needs to be respected on this surface. No one should be surprised to read that the Del Potro serve is a huge weapon on the grass, but more impressive for me is seeing the relatively decent returning he is able to put together on the surface.
This is the least effective surface on which Del Potro returns in terms of the numbers, but I think many players will have more difficulty to find their breaks on the grass compared with the other surfaces. Del Potro is still someone who has regularly found breaks of serve in 20% of return games on the grass and coupled with his serve it makes him a tough player to beat.
Denis Shapovalov is a decent enough player on the grass too, but the young Canadian has just hit a wall in recent months as he struggles for the consistency you need on the main Tour. The lack of impact on the return of serve does put Shapovalov under pressure to serve up to a very high standard, but his numbers have not quite been able to reach the level he has needed to ensure he is putting wins on the board with regularity.
The lefty serve on the grass is a big weapon for Shapovalov, but the lack of confidence is a slight concern ahead of this match. Last week in Stuttgart Shapovalov gave up his serve a couple of times and in the two matches he has played against Del Potro he has only held 70% of the service games played against the Argentinian.
It adds up to potential problems for him in this First Round match in London and I think Del Potro can win and cover. My one concern is that Del Potro has not played well at Queens with a single Quarter Final from a number of appearances here, but I will look for him to get the better of the young Canadian he is facing on Tuesday.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-3, + 4.16 Units (16 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)
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