French Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2019 (June 4th)

The last few days have seen plenty of winners produced on these pages for the French Open and there is every chance a positive number will come out of the second Grand Slam of the 2019 season.

Grass court tennis has also begun this week and the majority of the Tour will be making plans to move to those events that will get going at the end of the French Open.

Before those events begin we are down to the final eight players in both the men's and women's events being played in Paris. The weather does not look very appealing on Tuesday which could mean plenty of delays during the matches that are set scheduled to be completed and I would not be surprised if at least one of those has to be pushed back until Wednesday when the top half of the Quarter Final line up are set to be completed.


You can read my Picks from the Quarter Final matches to be played on Tuesday below. I have also updated the French Open record.


Johanna Konta v Sloane Stephens: Both Sloane Stephens and Johanna Konta have peaked inside the top five of the World Rankings, but there is no disputing the fact that the American has been the superior Grand Slam performer. Sloane Stephens is trying to reach a third Grand Slam Final this week having been a Runner Up in Paris last year and previously won the US Open, while Johanna Konta's best successes have been a couple of Semi Final runs at this level.

While I have to say that Stephens has been the better performer at the Grand Slam level, Konta is not inexperienced and I am going to back the underdog to come through this Quarter Final.

There is not really much between these players, but Konta has gotten on a roll on the clay courts and her performances in Paris have just edge out the ones that Stephens has produced. Both have been pretty consistent, but the superior serving numbers are with Konta and I do think that can make the difference in what is expected to be a really tight match.

We all know that Stephens can be an exceptional returner with her ability to blunt the power that the opponents throw at her and the movement around the court making her a very strong defender. It is no surprise she has the more consistent returning numbers of the pair, but her own serve can be vulnerable at times and Konta also holds the mental edge having won their two previous matches including a three set win in Rome in the last big tournament before the French Open began.

I do still have some doubts about Konta's ability on the clay courts when you think she had not won a match in Paris before the 2019 edition of the French Open. However she seems to be erasing those doubts in each passing match as Konta has continued to get plenty out of the serve and follow it up with some strong returning numbers.

I am expecting twists and turns in this Quarter Final and I would not be surprised if there are loads of break points and both players convert a fair few of those too. Once Sloane Stephens gets to this stage of any tournament I do think the American is very difficult to stop and I have the utmost respect for the kind of tennis she can produce at the business ends of the big tournaments.

There will be moments when Stephens gets on a roll, but Johanna Konta is full of confidence and she looks to have the slight edge with the level of performance she has produced at Roland Garros. The win in Rome should hold her in good stead too and I will back the underdog to take her spot in the Semi Final later this week.


Petra Martic v Marketa Vondrousova: Over the course of this tournament Marketa Vondrousova has been a player that has been very good to me with three straight winners produced by backing her. It might be foolish to jump off the bandwagon with that in mind, but I think Vondrousova is in for her toughest test in the French Open when she faces in-form Petra Martic in this Quarter Final.

Both players are having to deal with a new situation as they have made the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the first time and nerves could really play a big factor in this one. Neither player will want to get off to a slow start and the hardest thing is to work out if either is going to be riddled with nerves to the point where they fail to perform.

Marketa Vondrousova has been very good throughout the opening ten days at the French Open with four very easy wins being put together. The young Czech player is yet to drop a set and the longest time she has spent on court during one match is just under an hour and a half so there should be no issues at all with her conditioning.

The same can be said for Petra Martic despite dropping her first set of the tournament in her win over Kaia Kanepi in the Fourth Round. That was the longest time she has spent on the court, but Martic has only been on the court for under six hours to get through four Rounds herself, although one concern is that the level of performance has just been declining in each passing Round through the last three matches.

It is not that surprising with the improved quality of opponent, but Vondrousova's numbers have been more eye catching of the two.

However I do think Vondrousova has something to prove in this match too having had her difficulties when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay in the lead up to the French Open. She has improved to 7-2 in those matches, but Vondrousova has seen her numbers come down significantly to the point where you could argue she has only been a point or two away from having a much, much different record.

The win over Anastasija Sevastova in the Fourth Round had much to do with the energy spent by the Latvian in the Third Round, but Vondrousova was pushed by Carla Suarez Navarro in Paris. She won a couple of matches against top 50 Ranked players in Rome in which she had actually won fewer points and Petra Martic also holds a huge mental edge of having won all four matches these two have played against each other since January 2018.

The last of those came on the clay courts in the Istanbul Final at the end of April as Martic recovered from a poor opening set to come through in a three set win. Marketa Vondrousova has gotten closer and closer to beating Martic in each passing match and my finally get over the hump here, but the veteran Croatian is playing strong tennis on the clay courts and I do think she has enough about her to win this as an underdog.

This is another Quarter Final in which I would expect twists and turns as both players earn their break point chances and I don't think there will be a lot between them. I expected it to be much closer to a pick 'em call and the Petra Martic price is appealing enough to be backed.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Switzerland is guaranteed to have one Semi Finalist in the French Open Singles in 2019 as Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka get set to renew hostilities for a twenty-sixth time in the professional ranks.

It is Roger Federer who has dominated the head to head with a 22-3 record in his favour, but there is some intrigue surrounding this match if only because of the surface on which it is being played. In clay court matches Federer does lead the head to head with Stan Wawrinka, but that lead is only 4-3 and it was Wawrinka who beat Federer in his last appearance at Roland Garros in June 2015.

In that year it was a Stan Wawrinka straight sets win in the Quarter Final of the French Open and I do think the surface gives him every chance of the upset on Tuesday. However I also believe Wawrinka is going to have to raise his level somewhat from what he has produced here in Paris as well as in the lead up to the French Open on the clay courts.

Wawrinka was very fortunate to win the Fourth Round match against Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is going to have a very strong serving day to have a chance of winning this one. So far in this tournament the serve has been effective, but it is going to be very difficult to keep the level as high as it is, while Stan Wawrinka can't be expected to fend off as many break points as he did in the Fourth Round.

His chances won't have been helped much by having spent over five hours on court in the win over Tsitsipas and now he is facing an opponent who has made comfortable progress through the draw and who has been playing at a high level throughout the ten days in Paris.

Roger Federer will be the first to tell you that the level of opponents don't really come close to what Stan Wawrinka can produce on a clay court, but I expect the former World Number 1 to be very fresh. His serve has continued to be a vital part of the game for Federer and the slightly limited returning of Wawrinka that we have seen throughout the clay court season is not really going to cut it.

Importantly for Federer his return game looks to be in good nick here too and he can take advantage of any lingering fatigue Wawrinka could be feeling here. The huge emotional and physical effort put into the win over Stefanos Tsitsipas can't be ignored and I think Federer is going to have too much for his compatriot in three or four sets.

This is a big spread if Wawrinka is feeling close to 100%, but I can't see that being the case. While the serve has been huge for Wawrinka so far in Paris, I think the potential returning struggles could heap a lot of pressure on him on that side of his game and it will see Federer take his chances and produce a good looking win on the day.


Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Like the Third Round match against David Goffin, on first glance this does seem like a lot of games for Rafael Nadal to cover but I am going to back the King of Clay to do that.

He has not been at his best on the clay courts in 2019 and the last couple of Rounds have perhaps seen Nadal do enough to win the match without blowing opponents off the court. In saying that, the Spaniard has dropped just a single set at the French Open and all of the sets he has won has seen players fail to win more than four games within them.

Rafael Nadal has won eleven sets at the French Open to move through to the Quarter Final and ten of them have been by a 6-3 or better scoreline. Six of those have been in sets where he has lost two or fewer games so Nadal is in good form, although the standards he has set on the surface means he is held to a different level than most.

The serve has been working very well for Nadal so far in the tournament and it does allow him to go ahead and take some chances in attacking opponents on the return. Every point is played like his life depends on it and that could make this a very tough afternoon for Kei Nishikori who has come through back to back five setters.

The Fourth Round win over Benoit Paire had to be played over a couple of days, but you can't ignore the court time Nishikori is racking up. Kei Nishikori has spent over eleven hours on the court to come through his last three matches and that kind of effort adds up in the fatigue department, especially ahead of a match with someone like Nadal who won't give you a moment to rest.

It is going to be a factor, but the match up is not really a very good one for Nishikori who has not been in the best form in the build up to the French Open. Even the performances in Paris have been slightly better than average if I am being honest and he is not serving as well as he will need to in order to keep Nadal from getting into all of the return games he plays.

That is perhaps not a big surprise when you think Nishikori was holding 80% of service games in the build up to the French Open. In this tournament he has won at least 60% of points behind serve in every match, but he has not played anyone close to the level Nadal produces when it comes to returning serve on this surface.

Even in their head to heads Nishikori has held just 70% of his service games played against Nadal and that number plummets to 59% when you only consider the four previous clay court matches they have played. With Nadal serving as well as he has in this tournament, I would expect him to get close to the 85% service hold number he has produced against Nishikori on the red dirt and we may see a fatiguing Nishikori fall away in this one.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 54-42, + 13.11 Units (193 Units Staked, + 6.79% Yield)