Tennis Picks 2019 (June 24th)

Two winners from the three Tennis Picks made from the Finals that were played on Sunday ensured a strong week on the Tour and a bounce back from a disappointing first week of Picks from matches on the grass courts.

To be fair it was more than a bounce back with a very strong return to add to the season totals and this new week has started off well with Johanna Konta comfortably winning her first match in Eastbourne on Sunday too.

Eastbourne has brought together a very strong field from the WTA and this is a tournament that can give someone a lot of momentum to take into Wimbledon which begins in seven days time. The two ATP events being played this week are perhaps lacking some of the star power, but it could be an important week for those taking part. Earning some Ranking points could bode well for tournaments down the line, but none of those player in the two ATP events are really expected to be making an impact at the business end of the next Grand Slam of 2019.


I will be looking to keep the momentum going for the Picks into Wimbledon and pick up from where I left off on Sunday.

Below you can see my selections from the Monday tennis and I have updated the season totals as well as the weekly totals from the two venues running tournaments this week. The Johanna Konta pick that was a winner on Sunday will go down in the weekly totals for the events being run in Antalya and Eastbourne this week.


Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 games v Mihaela Buzarnescu: Both Jelena Ostapenko and Mihaela Buzarnescu have had difficult twelve months on the Tour which means neither is going to head to Wimbledon as a Seeded player. Things may change if players ahead of them can't compete in SW19, but both players will be looking at their last year and believing there is plenty of room for improvement.

Jelena Ostapenko showed some very strong signs in Birmingham last week as she prepares to defend her Semi Final run at Wimbledon from 2018. A strong run will at least prevent a significant drop down the World Rankings and wins over Iga Swiatek and Johanna Konta will make her feel better about her game.

It is one that should work well on the grass courts, although there are still some big inconsistencies that need ironing out if Ostapenko is going to fulfil the potential she clearly has. Two years ago she won a Grand Slam title at the French Open so some will say she is more than potential, but for me the Latvian has not kicked on as you would imagine and she is still playing the kind of tennis that has very little margin for error.

She will know all about the difficulties Mihaela Buzarnescu will pose having split four matches two apiece in the last eighteen months. However the one sole meeting on the grass between Ostapenko and Buzarnescu ended with a very routine win for the former last year here in Eastbourne.

It was during a time when Buzarnescu was playing some of the best tennis of her career, but she has struggled to find those levels throughout 2019. The Romanian is playing only her second grass court match of the season after going down to a one-sided defeat to Karolina Pliskova last week in Birmingham, and she is going to have to be a lot more convincing on the return if she is going to win this match.

I do think it will be a closer match because Ostapenko's serve is one that can be vulnerable when she is not feeling at her best. With that in mind Mihaela Buzarnescu should have some successes on the return which she did not manage last week, but I would also expect Ostapenko's aggression to be a deciding factor in the match and she can work her way to a solid looking win.

Covering the handicap won't be straight-forward, but I will look for Ostapenko to do that with the confidence she should have earned from her run in Birmingham. I think she will have the superior return on the day and the Latvian has had more success on the grass than Buzarnescu which should translate to a place in the Second Round.


Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: Tennis is one of those sports where players can quickly sink down the World Rankings if they hit a poor run of form and that is what has happened to Daria Gavrilova. The Australian has been inspired by the performance of compatriot Ashleigh Barty who is the newest Grand Slam Champion and World Number 1, but Gavrilova needs to dig in if she is going to reverse the form of the last twelve months.

This week Gavrilova has got into the main draw of Eastbourne as a 'Lucky Loser', while the draw could have been much kinder to her.

In recent years Daria Gavrilova has struggled on the grass courts anyway so this is perhaps not the perfect time of the season for her to try and turn around her form. She was a dominant winner in the first Qualifier here, but Gavrilova won just three games in the second Qualifier and the second serve is massively vulnerable on the surface.

The opponent in front of her looks a difficult one too as I look to get behind Anastasija Sevastova who had a decent run to the Semi Final in Mallorca last week. It has to be said that Sevastova has tended to play her best grass court tennis in Mallorca and her results away from that tournament have been far less impressive, but I do think she may match up well with Gavrilova in this First Round match.

Her serve is also one that can be attacked on the grass courts, but I think she has the edge over Gavrilova when it comes to the second serve and the way Sevastova is able to protect that shot. It is a big difference maker within a match when you can get away with a few more second serves than your opponent and I also think the Latvian has the kind of aggression on the return that also gives her the advantage.

Daria Gavrilova did reach the Quarter Final in Eastbourne as a Lucky Loser in 2015 and that has to be respected. But her recent results have not been productive enough to believe she can keep this match as competitive as the layers believe and I will back Anastasija Sevastova to show the superior second serving and returning to work her way to the breaks needed to cover.


Elina Svitolina - 2.5 games v Alize Cornet: A poor loss in Birmingham last week after a disappointing clay court portion of the season has to be a concern for Elina Svitolina fans as we approach the third Grand Slam of the 2019 year. Her health has been in question, but I think this is the kind of match that Svitolina will be looking at as a good chance to get her season turned back around.

A 14-10 record in 2019 is not what anyone expected of Svitolina after she won the WTA Championship Finals for the first time at the end of 2018. Now she is looking to put some wins on the board during a month on the grass courts despite Svitolina not really having the impact she would have wanted at this time of the season in recent years.

The numbers in general from Svitolina have hardly been that impressive, but you can see she has her most difficulty putting things together on the grass. The Ukrainian would love to get more joy from the serve to really start becoming a threat on the surface, while her returning is significantly poorer than on either the clay or the hard courts.

However I do think Svitolina can be backed in this Second Round match when she takes on Alize Cornet who has also not been able to find her best tennis on the grass courts. She did have a solid win over Heather Watson in the First Round, but I think that has as much to do with the poor form Watson has been displaying for twelve months as it has about Cornet suddenly finding form on the surface.

Elina Svitolina has won the last four matches between these players and she also holds a win over Alize Cornet on the grass in Birmingham in 2018. Those four matches have seen Svitolina dominate the returning numbers and she can certainly do that here having played well enough on that side of her game in Birmingham last week.

Much will depend on how much success Svitolina can have on the second serve in this one- if she can get enough first serves in play it shouldn't matter so much, but I do think the Ukrainian can capitalise on the returns off the second serve more than Cornet.

The layers have their doubts about Svitolina which means we are getting a decent spread in this match. While it is a risky play considering the recent performances of Elina Svitolina, I will back her to win this one.


Steve Johnson-Reilly Opelka over 10.5 first set games: We haven't seen Reilly Opelka since the French Open, but the improvements he has made over the last twelve months means he will be entering Wimbledon thanks to his Number 61 World Ranking.

He didn't play any grass court tennis in 2018, but the 'new John Isner' should be someone who can cause problems for whoever he faces on the surface. Two years ago Opelka held 90% of the service games he played on the grass as he compiled a 3-3 record, but the American's numbers are heavily leaning towards his serving.

Back in 2017 he broke in only 8% of return games on the grass, while Opelka is at 11% when you look at his numbers across the last twelve months on all surfaces. At 6'11 in height it is no surprise that his return is as potent as it is and I would expect Opelka to give Steve Johnson plenty to think about in this First Round match at Eastbourne, although the lack of grass court tennis in the last two years is a concern.

Steve Johnson has become very familiar on the surface, although he has had a difficult last two weeks with some tough draws to face. Losses to Gael Monfils and Alexander Zverev around a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber is a difficult run for Johnson to have negotiated and his numbers have been dented by the tough matches he has had.

Both the service and return numbers are someway down on 2018 when Johnson had some real success on the grass, but I do think the higher Ranked American in this First Round match can enjoy better success in this one. I do think Johnson will be able to run through some service games to improve the numbers produced in 2019, but I think Johnson is going to struggle when it comes to the return and that has led me to my pick.

With the way both Johnson and Opelka can serve, I would expect break points to be at a premium in this match. Early on you would think both players are going to have too much pop on the serve to give too many opportunities to the other and I do think we are going to come very close to a tie-breaker to separate them in the first set.

The very opening of the match is perhaps when someone will be caught out cold and I am not anticipating a lot of breaks of serve in this one. With both capable of serving effectively and neither being a particularly productive returner I will look for this match to reach at least 5-5 in the first set.


Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: When you think of players that are going to be looking forward to the grass court season you probably wouldn't think of either Nicolas Jarry or Pablo Cuevas. At least over the last twelve months Jarry has decided to give himself a chance of securing some solid grass court tennis compared with Cuevas who played at Wimbledon without any warm up tennis twelve months ago.

Nicolas Jarry has shown he can produce some effective grass court tennis in 2018 and 2019 and his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in Hertogenbosch has to be respected. He failed to Qualify for the main draw in London last week, but both losses Jarry has had on the grass over the last couple of weeks have been in tight matches.

That does bode well for him as he heads to Eastbourne for this final warm up tournament before Wimbledon gets underway. The Chilean has won at least 66% of his service points on the grass in 2018 and 2019, while he has held 82% and 83% of service games played in those years respectively.

You have to respect the serving that Pablo Cuevas has been able to produce n the grass courts in recent years, but he has struggled significantly on the return of serve. No one is going to confuse Jarry with an exceptional returner, but he has produced better numbers than Cuevas when you compare them in recent years, although both have small samples at play.

In 2016 Pablo Cuevas did surprise his way to a run to the Final in Nottingham which was then the tournament played before Wimbledon begun. However the Uruguayan was only breaking in 12% of return games on the surface in that season and I do think Nicolas Jarry can edge him out in what could be a match in which the serves dominate.

I do think one or two pivotal moments could swing this match, but Nicolas Jarry's motivation to play on the grass could be higher and make all the difference on the day. Both players will be looking to rely on their serve and I do give the narrow edge to Nicolas Jarry on both serving and returning and enough to want to back him to get through this match.

MY PICKS: Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson-Reilly Opelka Over 10.5 First Set Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0 , + 1.66 Units (2 Units Staked, + 83% Yield)

Season 2019: + 91.97 Units (1104 Units Staked, + 8.33% Yield)