It was a wet day in London on Tuesday which means the entire Queens schedule had to be postponed- that also means we are in for a very busy couple of days at that tournament with the majority of the First Round to be played on Wednesday and the entire Second Round likely set for Thursday.
They will need some luck because the weather on Wednesday is pretty wet again, although it should be clearer in the afternoon and an actual opportunity to see some competitive tennis for those attending the West London venue.
Thankfully there was plenty of tennis to enjoy from Halle, Birmingham and Mallorca with only the second of those three events not quite getting through the schedule as they would have hoped. However all three are pretty much right on schedule going into the middle of the week compared to the mess that Nottingham had to deal with last week when the rain played havoc on their tournament.
Tuesday was a really strong day for the Tennis Picks that were completed as those finished with a 7-1 record. The four selections from Queens didn't get out on court and there was one selection from Birmingham which will have to wait until Wednesday.
After seeing Anastasija Sevastova somehow fail to cover in a match she had been the stronger player and having found five breaks of serve, Tuesday soon picked up with five winners coming Halle. I had some fortune to get a winner with Naomi Osaka, but that made up for the lack of luck with the Sevastova pick and all in all I can't complain with the direction this week is moving in.
However it is not the time to get carried away with only two days of the latest tournaments in the books and with plenty of tennis still to come. A good start is only a start as we move into the first of the Second Round matches.
I have left the Tennis Picks from Tuesday in the 'Featured Post' spot on the blog so you can see the selections from the First Round matches that have been carried over until Wednesday. You can also read the post with those Picks from Queens here.
Below you can read some of my thoughts from the Picks from Wednesday. One match did appeal on the numbers, but I don't trust one of the players involved so have decided to skip it. There are still plenty of other matches that fit the criteria I have set out as I look for another positive day to add to the numbers produced so far this week.
You can read the weekly totals below the Picks.
Jan-Lennard Struff v Karen Khachanov: The Second Round begins in Halle on Wednesday and the one match that really takes the eye is this pick 'em between Jan-Lennard Struff and Karen Khachanov.
In recent years Khachanov has had some very strong runs in Halle and I have to respect that, but his numbers have not been as impressive as the results would suggest. On the other hand Struff has not had a great time on the grass courts, but he is coming into this Second Round match having shown some decent form in the last couple of weeks.
The Struff serve has always been a weapon for the German who is also going to enjoy home support for a second week in a row having made it as far as the Stuttgart Semi Final last week. It is clear he has picked up some confidence as he dominated Laslo Djere in the First Round in Halle and Struff has a serve which should set him up in a good position in this match having held 96% of service games on the grass over the last ten days.
The key to the success Struff has had is the way he has been returning and I think that is aided by how well he has been serving. The German has broken in 20% of return games played in his five matches on the grass which is a significant improvement on the last couple of years on the surface, although the worry is how long he can maintain the standards he has been setting.
As I have mentioned, Karen Khachanov has enjoyed his visits to Halle and there is no doubt that players can get very comfortable when returning to venues where they've had multiple successful runs. After a strong showing at the French Open, Khachanov is trying to build some momentum, but he has been a mixed bag in his two grass court matches and will need some improvement to challenge Struff.
The Russian is only holding in 80% of the service games he has played on the grass, but the bigger worry has to be the lack of traction Khachanov has had on the return. That can make the difference in a match against an opponent he has struggled to break in their two previous meetings, albeit the last of those coming in March 2016.
I do believe Struff's going to be the more confident player on the return on this one and that doubled up when you think of how well he has been serving over the last couple of weeks. If he can keep that going on Wednesday, I would not be surprised to see Struff win this match as the underdog.
Jelena Ostapenko + 4.5 games v Johanna Konta: The grass court portion of the Tour is around a month long in length and it is no surprise that is something of a specialist surface to play on. There are some top names that struggle at this time of the year, but others come alive and one of those is Johanna Konta.
The expectation on Konta may have increased from the even the very high position they begin at when it comes to tournaments being played in the United Kingdom. The Brit has been a regular name in the second week of Wimbledon and Konta has had some stunning wins on the grass, while she is coming in off a a run to the French Open Semi Final on what many perceive to be her weakest surface.
It does mean big things are expected of Konta over the next four weeks and her strong win over Anett Kontaveit in the First Round in Birmingham underlines how at home she feels on this surface. Now she is a big favourite to dismiss the challenge of 2017 French Open Champion Jelena Ostapenko who has been struggling for her form over the last twelve months and slipped into a position where she will not be Seeded at Grand Slams.
The Latvian had a very easy win in the First Round when she was actually set as the underdog, while I think she might be a touch under-rated in this one as a pretty competent grass court player. Last year she actually finished with more grass court wins than Konta and her numbers were slightly superior and I do think she has the capabilities of making life very difficult for her opponent.
Johanna Konta has gotten the better of Jelena Ostapenko more often than not, including a win on the grass, but the matches have been competitive for the most part. I will need Ostapenko to get more out of her serve than she has been able to do, but if she can get a high percentage of first serves in play she is going to be able to pressure Konta and I think this could be one too many games to be given as a start.
I am not opposing Konta easily considering the form she is in and the manner of her win in the First Round. She has been more consistent than Ostapenko on the grass courts and gets plenty out of her serve which makes it a situation where the British Number 1 could use that superior shot to put Ostapenko under pressure.
However I think Ostapenko has returned the Konta serve well enough to trust her to keep this competitive and taking the games is the play.
Petra Martic - 3.5 games v Margarita Gasparyan: At 28 years old Petra Martic is playing the best tennis of her career having reached a career best Ranking following her run to the Quarter Final at the French Open. Injuries have been an issue for her in her career, but Martic looks healthy and capable of breaking into the top 20 of the World Rankings sooner rather than later.
A strong run in Birmingham will help her cause and the Croatian is the favourite to get past Margarita Gasparyan who has not been convincing in compiling a 2-1 record on the grass over the last ten days.
Petra Martic served well enough to get through her First Round match in what was her first appearance on the grass in 2019. The serve will remain an important shot for Martic over the next four weeks as we conclude the grass court part of the 2019 season and it is a shot that can put pressure on most players out there.
There is a need to improve her returns on the grass if Martic is going to have a serious impact at Wimbledon, but she has shown she can perform on the surface in the past and I think she is going to be a tough out for most players out there. Next to try will be Margarita Gasparyan who upset Elina Svitolina in the First Round with a three set win over the Ukrainian, but she may need to be even better if she is going to win as an underdog for the second time in Birmingham.
Like Petra Martic, Margarita Gasparyan can use her serve to good effect on the grass, but she is under a bit more pressure to find first serves. Her second serve has not been as strong as Martic's, while the Russian has long be suffering to get to grips with the return of serve on the grass.
I think that is going to be the difference maker between the players on the day with Martic perhaps able to get out of a couple of sticky situations on the serve that Gasparyan is unable to do. If the latter is able to get a lot of first serves in play she will be much tougher to deal with, but I fear for the second serve and I think that is where Martic will be able to take control of this match.
The number can be a complicated one to cover if Gasparyan is serving to the top of her game, but I think Martic may have enough to get this done with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-4, + 13.98 Units (32 Units Staked, + 43.69% Yield)
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