Tennis Picks 2019 (June 27th)

With just four days to go before Wimbledon gets underway the Seedings have been released, not without controversy, and the draws will be made on Friday morning.

Those players involved in the tournaments played in Antalya and Eastbourne will be focusing on finishing this week with a title as we are down to the Quarter Final matches at all of those events. The WTA event in Eastbourne is of particular importance as it could lay a marker for Wimbledon, while there are important Ranking points on offer in the two ATP events being played even if none of the players in the last eight are really expected to have a big showing in SW19 over the next couple of weeks.

Wednesday ended up being a successful day with two of the three completed Tennis Picks coming back as winners. I did have some fortune when Jelena Ostapenko retired after her early struggles, but the hope is that the Latvian is going to recover in time for Wimbledon and she only pulled out as a precaution after looking like she was struggling with her movement.

It has been a decent week so far, but I am looking to push on with the end of the tournaments before the full concentration can shift to Wimbledon. The first two Grand Slam events have provided positive numbers, but keeping that going will be the goal through another tournament.


Alize Cornet v Ons Jabeur: This is not the Quarter Final anyone would have expected when the draw was made last week, but both Alize Cornet and Ons Jabeur have deserved their spot in the last eight. The decision made by Ashleigh Barty to withdraw from the tournament has helped both of these players, but both have also beaten Seeded players and that should mean there is a real confidence in the play.

In each of the first three matches here so far this week, Ons Jabeur has been showing improvement and she comfortably dismissed an out of sorts Johanna Konta in the Third Round.

The serve has been working pretty effectively so far this week and Jabeur has also shown a little more impact on the return in Eastbourne. However the general numbers in 2019 on the grass courts have not been that impressive and I do wonder if Jabeur can keep up the standard she is at right now.

Like her opponent in this Quarter Final, Jabeur has not had a lot of grass court pedigree in recent years, but this is usually over a small sample of matches. Alize Cornet had also been struggling on the surface, but she has looked very good in Eastbourne and I do believe she is going to have the narrow edge.

The Frenchwoman has gotten more out of the first serve than Jabeur and she has also been returning more effectively with over 50% of return points being won. That number is significantly higher than Jabeur's 44% in Eastbourne, but the Tunisian has had the edge when it comes to the second serve and I do think that is going to make her very competitive.

However I think Cornet's performances should have seen her go into this Quarter Final as a stronger favourite than she is. I do have some reservations about backing Cornet because of her recent past of having a lack of success on the grass courts, but she has looked the better player this week and it has to be noted that Jabeur has also been exceeding her usual levels on this surface.

It might need three sets to separate them, but I will back Cornet to come out on top in this one.


Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There is every chance a match like this one could be gracing Wimbledon at the business end of that tournament in two weeks time. Before we get to that, Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep will be looking to lay down a marker for the third Grand Slam of the season as they get set to face off in the Quarter Final in Eastbourne.

This is going to be the eleventh time Kerber and Halep are meeting on the Tour and the second time they are going to play each other on the grass courts. Matches between them have been very competitive and there really isn't a lot to separate them and half of their previous ten matches have needed to go the distance.

The sole meeting on grass took place at Wimbledon in 2016 and was won by Kerber in two tight sets as both players showed off their returning strength throughout that match. We could see more of the same on Thursday in this Quarter Final as both players are very comfortable on the return side of their game while perhaps not having the most telling of serves.

So far this week Angelique Kerber has had the edge when it comes to the serve as she has won plenty of points behind both first and second serves. Simona Halep has not had quite the same numbers, but she is serving well enough too and the Romanian will be looking at the 51% return points won compared to the 42% won by Kerber this week as being a potential difference maker in her favour.

Over the last couple of years I do think Kerber has been the superior grass court player of the two and she won the title at Wimbledon for the first time last season. The German is also a former Runner Up in SW19 and that does make her an appealing selection as the underdog in this match, although Halep has had the slight edge when it comes to the head to head and was a very close loser in their one previous grass court match.

My expectation is that we are going to see a close match and I would not be that surprised if a third set is needed to separate them as has been the case in half of their previous matches. Even two tight sets like they played at Wimbledon in 2016 will be enough to cover the total games line in this one and that is going to be my selection in this Quarter Final.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: There has been a vast improvement in the performances produced by Kiki Bertens on all surfaces over the last couple of years. She has reached a career high World Number 4 in the Rankings and Bertens has seemingly gotten over the real disappointment of having to pull out of the French Open in the Second Round in Paris.

The Dutchwoman had gone into the French Open as a real favourite to go on and win her first Grand Slam and it does feel like an opportunity was lost when you consider how that tournament panned out. But any lingering regrets have not been shown by Kiki Bertens as she reached the Final in Hertogenbosch and now the Quarter Final in Eastbourne on the grass courts.

This is a surface that has sometimes baffled Bertens, but she does have a game that you would think should translate onto it. A strong serve and an aggressive attitude is a good starting point for any player on the grass courts and it does feel like Bertens is beginning to put that together in the past three weeks.

Kiki Bertens has been in very good form in Eastbourne as she has won her two matches without too many worries and her numbers back that up. The first serve has been a potent weapon for her with plenty of points being won behind that shot both here and on the grass in general in 2019, but it is the 54% of return points won that have really propelled Bertens forward.

That side of her game is going to be tested by Aryna Sabalenka who reached the Final in Eastbourne last year. She was beaten by Caroline Wozniacki in the Final in 2018, but earned a measure of revenge by overcoming the Dane in the Third Round on Wednesday although I do think Sabalenka is going to need to be even better if she is going to reach the Semi Final.

So far this week Sabalenka has been serving very well too, but she has not been able to return quite as effectively as Bertens. The returning is more productive than it has been in the last couple of weeks when Sabalenka suffered early losses in back to back tournaments so she should be a threat to Bertens, but the head to head is 3-0 in favour of the Dutchwoman and I do think the favourite can win this match and cover the number.

When they have played each other, the Bertens serve has been the stronger of the two players and I do think that is likely going to happen here. With a better return being shown in Eastbourne, Kiki Bertens can win and I will back her to come through to a second Semi Final in a row on the grass courts.

MY PICKS: Alize Cornet @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Troicki @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-4, + 3.88 Units (22 Units Staked, + 17.64% Yield)