Now we have reached the second week of the French Open I am expecting the quality of the matches to improve and if the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Stan Wawrinka match is anything to go by we won't be disappointed.
The young Greek player is going to be hurting having lost a match he should have won, but he continues to show he is close to really making a huge impact at a Grand Slam and looks to be the 'Next Gen' player most likely to break the old guard's dominance. Some will still say Alexander Zverev is ahead of him, but Tsitsipas is improving at a better rate.
It was also great to see Stan Wawrinka back to winning big matches, even if I had picked Tsitsipas to win the match. While not quite at top speed, Wawrinka is beginning to motor and he may yet get back to the level which saw him win multiple Grand Slam titles.
Other than that the majority of the matches may have gone the way most expected on Sunday. Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were barely threatened, while the women's draw is wide open going into the final few days in Paris. I still think the defending Champion Simona Halep is the player to beat, but she has some talented youngsters to negotiate through the top half of the draw and I would not be that surprised if someone out of left field goes on to win the tournament here.
Every player left in the women's draw has to be feeling confident of their chances.
I have update the French Open totals for the tournament after a 3-2 record, although Kei Nishikori can hopefully put the finishing touches on his match to put another winner on the board. The Tennis Picks are up for the tournament, but a strong final week is going to be needed to ensure we add some positive numbers to the season totals and keep the positive momentum going into the grass court season.
The Challenger circuit sees the first grass court tennis of 2019 played this week, but the main Tour will move onto the surface in seven days time with the relatively short lead up to Wimbledon getting going.
Fabio Fognini v Alexander Zverev: This is a fascinating Fourth Round match at the French Open in the men's draw and in the last twenty-four hours we have seen the favourite switch in the market. At the opening I was quite surprised to Alexander Zverev down as the favourite, but the market looks to have corrected itself since then by making Fabio Fognini the one with the slight edge.
The clay court season could not have gone much better for Fognini who won a Masters title and played well in both Madrid and Rome. A slight injury concern going into the tournament has not really reared up as some feared it might and Fognini has been making pretty comfortable progress through the draw with four set wins over Andreas Seppi, Federico Delbonis and Roberto Bautista Agut.
The Italian will be the first to tell you that the level of competition does step up in this Fourth Round match, but Fognini has plenty of confidence behind him. His performances have been very solid throughout this tournament and the return game looks to be working very well to cover any deficiencies he continues to demonstrate on the serve.
You never know when Fognini is going to produce a below par day of serving, but he should be full of belief as he looks for only his second ever Quarter Final in a Grand Slam having previously reached that stage here at Roland Garros. Right now I suggest he is playing as well as he has ever done going into a Slam and keeping that form going into the tournament and Fognini has the returning game to really hurt Alexander Zverev.
A five set win in the last Round should not cause too many fatigue problems alone, but Zverev has spent far too long on the court regardless at the French Open. We saw the problems it caused for him here twelve months ago and Zverev is simply not playing as well as he was going into this Grand Slam in 2018.
Even in this tournament the German has been a little fortunate to come through against John Millman and Dusan Lajovic and Alexander Zverev can't keep getting away with things. He has simply not served anywhere near as well as he would have liked and I would expect Fognini to put him under considerable pressure throughout this best of five set match.
When these two players met in the Monte Carlo Masters, Fognini somehow held serve in 90% of the games played, but it is the 33% break number that is relevant here. I really think he is going to be good enough to get past Zverev as long as he doesn't put himself under too much pressure to reach a second Grand Slam Quarter Final, but Alexander Zverev may also be dealing with that mental pressure and Fabio Fognini has been in the better form.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: If this was a match played in the Second Round and this was the kind of spread we saw, then you would have to consider Jan-Lennard Struff a good thing considering the form he has shown on the clay courts in 2019. Unfortunately for the German it is coming in the Fourth Round after spending over seven and a half hours on court to beat Radu Albot and then Borna Coric deep into the fifth set.
The win over Coric is a pretty special one for Struff who has reached the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time as a Singles player. His Ranking is going to get a solid boost from the run he has put together as he is set for a new career high position and Struff will feel he has nothing to lose going into the match.
Last year Marco Cecchinato stunned Novak Djokovic here in Paris so Struff will believe anything is possible, although I do worry about the accumulated fatigue. It is going to be a match in which Struff is asked to put a lot of work in to win his points as Novak Djokovic will get a lot more balls back into play than the German is used to and I do think physically and mentally that will take its toll on him through this match.
Novak Djokovic has barely broken a sweat to make it through to the Fourth Round here and he has needed just over five hours to make it through his three matches. Granted the standard of opposition is perhaps a bit higher than what he has faced so far, but I was very impressed with the way Djokovic dealt with Hubert Hurkacz in the First Round and the level he is producing his higher than what we have seen from Struff so far.
Adding in the potential fatigue and I do think Djokovic has a chance of covering what has to be considered a very high number. Jan-Lennard Struff has shown he can serve very effectively on the clay courts and that might be the shot that keeps going for the longest time, but Novak Djokovic has returned very well throughout the tournament and the potentially cooler and wetter conditions may just take some of the potency out of the German's serve on Monday.
If that is the case I can see Djokovic making him earn everything on the court and the amount of tennis played will catch up with Struff. After a close first set I think Djokovic takes command of the match and he can begin to pull away to record yet another straight-forward win on his march through to the Quarter Final in the second Grand Slam of the season.
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: No one can be surprised that the Fourth Round of any Grand Slam brings together some fantastic matches. We have a great one between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Stan Wawrinka on Sunday and there are three that look very good to come on Monday with Novak Djokovic the only significant favourite on the day.
This one might be the one with the best atmosphere on the day as Dominic Thiem, the 2018 Runner Up, faces Frenchman Gael Monfils on the main court at Roland Garros. The performances of Monfils to come through the draw have been impressive and his numbers have been very strong, but the level of opposition has not been up to the highest standards and now he is facing one of the better clay courters in the world.
Having relatively comfortable matches means Monfils has not had to exert too much energy coming though the Rounds and he has spent almost two hours fewer on the court than Dominic Thiem. In each of the three matches here, the Austrian has needed four sets to come through, but Thiem has also been improving in each passing Round which is coming at a time when his level of opponent has been improving too.
The Austrian has definitely been playing the better clay court of the two players for some time now and Thiem's serving can be the difference on the day. Dominic Thiem also holds the mental edge having won all four previous matches between these players which includes two wins on the clay courts.
In those previous matches the Thiem serve has been a potent weapon for him with 87% of his service games being held and breaking the Monfils serve in 35% of return games. Those numbers improve in the two clay court meetings to 89% and 42% and the improving performances from Thiem in Roland Garros suggests he could be peaking at the right time as we enter the business end of this Grand Slam.
Gael Monfils has dominated opponents he would have expected to in the first three Rounds here, but his performances on the clay courts had not been the best in the build up to the French Open. Even in 2018 Monfils did not play as well as he would have liked on this surfaced and I do think Thiem is going to have too much for him in a best of five set scenario.
As long as Dominic Thiem continues to serve as he has, and there is nothing to suggest he won't, I think he will be able to get through his service games with a little more comfort than the Frenchman. Gael Monfils is going to be playing with confidence, but Thiem has tended to have his number and he should be able to win this match and cover this number.
Karen Khachanov-Juan Martin Del Potro over 39.5 games: I don't think there would have been a lot of expectation on either Karen Khachanov or Juan Martin Del Potro going into the French Open, but both have had significant runs at this Grand Slam before. Now they are facing off for a Quarter Final spot at Roland Garros and I think there will be a lot of belief inside both men that they can get through what is a tough looking match.
The mental edge may belong with Juan Martin Del Potro who beat Karen Khachanov in their three meetings in 2018 which included a tough four set win at the Australian Open. However there is the concern about the leg injury which seemed to be playing up in the Second Round and someone like Khachanov certainly plays with a lot of belief even when he goes up against the top players on the Tour.
Over the course of this tournament Khachanov has been playing the superior tennis to Del Potro and they have faced a similar level of opponent. Both had their struggles in the Second Round, but a couple of comfortable wins around that means both players should be feeling very well about their game.
Serving on the clay courts can be a tough task, but I do think both of these players are capable of rattling through their service games when at their best. So far in this tournament both Khachanov and Del Potro have been very good behind their serve and for the most part they have been able to protect that shot and I would not be surprised if these players are playing at least three very long, competitive sets.
It does make me lean to a long match which covers the total games set, although the one concern has to be the fact that Khachanov has only won a single set against Del Potro. However if Del Potro is not quite at 100% I do think Khachanov can do enough to win a big point or two at the back end of at least one set to put one on the board and I am not anticipating the Argentinian falling in straight sets either.
With at least one tie-breaker and possibly two needed, I think we are going to see at least four sets played on Monday. That should give the players the chance to surpass this total number of games even though the number is a touch on the high side.
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Sofia Kenin: One of the big upsets in Paris over the first week of the tournament was Sofia Kenin's win over Serena Williams in the Third Round. For a player that had not been beyond the Second Round of any Grand Slam played outside of her nation, Kenin has had a very good run to reach the Fourth Round here.
Backing up a win of the magnitude that Kenin earned in the Third Round is going to be very difficult and even more so when you think of the opponent in front of her. Ashleigh Barty has made strong progress through the draw and over the last twelve months she has become one of the top players on the WTA Tour and has begun to be a regular name that is expected to make the business end of Grand Slam tournaments.
The draw has really opened up for Barty now and I think she has to take advantage even if she is perhaps playing on her least favoured surface. She has yet to drop a set in the Singles tournament and Barty is partnering Victoria Azarenka in the Doubles which has seen the two of them progress in that tournament too.
The serving has proven to be key for Barty on all surfaces and she has been very strong behind that shot here in Paris too. Like I said a couple of days ago, Kenin is not the best returner on the clay courts and I don't want to give too much of a factor to the way she played against Serena Williams considering the veteran American is not quite up to her usual very high standards.
I have no doubt that Kenin is going to be confident and her own two wins here this week will have added to her belief on the clay courts, but in general she has not been at her best on the surface. Her own serve worked very well against Williams, but I think she was massively helped by the performance of her opponent on the day and Barty has shown time and again that she is rarely going to give matches away through a host of mistakes.
The Australian has also beaten Kenin twice over the last fourteen months with one of those wins coming on the clay courts of Charleston. In the two matches, Kenin has only been able to win 32% of the points against the Barty serve and her own service has been one that Barty has attacked with a lot of success.
I do think Barty is going to really win out when she gets to see the Kenin second serve and I think it may be tough for the latter to pick herself up emotionally from the successes of two days ago. With a couple of pretty one-sided losses to Barty over the last fourteen months also playing a factor in this one, I will back the Australian to move through to the Quarter Final with a good looking win in this one.
Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: Some quick thoughts on my last couple of picks.
I am going to back Madison Keys to also come through against someone who has surprisingly made the second week and is off a huge upset win. I have to respect Katerina Siniakova as she is someone who has backed up one upset with an even bigger one against Naomi Osaka, while she seems to work very hard to extract every ounce of potential out of her game.
However I can't help feel that Madison Keys is comfortable on the clay courts and is happiest when she is able to go under the radar in any tournament. The American has had a couple of tougher than expected matches in the draw, but she has held herself together and her serve can be a big weapon for her as long as she is not getting frustrated by the movement and defensive effort put in by Siniakova.
I would also expect Keys to have significant success on the return of serve and she can cover a number I expected to be at least one and possibly two games larger than it is.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Iga Swiatek: Agnieszka Radwanska might have retired, but the void in Polish tennis won't be unfilled for too long if Iga Swiatek continues to make the progress she has been.
I have no doubt she is going to be a dangerous opponent for Simona Halep, but the French Open Champion is the best clay courter in the world and I don't think Swiatek is quite there.
While I expect Swiatek to be competitive to a point, at this stage of their respective careers I expect Halep's movement and ability to turn defence into attack to be a little too good for the youngster. One set might be very close and Swiatek may even have her chances to win it, but Halep's returning should keep the pressure on her and I would expect the defending Champion to eventually pull away for a cover of a big number against a talented, but inexperienced opponent.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 48-40, + 7.05 Units (177 Units Staked, + 3.98% Yield)
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