Tennis Picks 2019 (June 28th)

Thursday was about as rough a day as I have had in 2019, but there was plenty of frustration involved with some of the matches twisting away from the selection despite looking like being in a strong position.

These things can happen in a sport where tiny mistakes can be magnified over the course of a match- I am still not sure how Alize Cornet was beaten by Ons Jabeur having had so many chances to win the match in straight sets.

It wasn't just bad luck though, I have no idea why I wanted to ever back Victor Troicki to win a match considering he has been on my blacklist for a long time now. That is on me, but I won't be making that mistake again.

Friday is a big day for Tennis fans as the third Grand Slam draw will be released in the morning. Wimbledon Qualifiers have been completed on Thursday and the Seeds were released on Wednesday as the excitement for the latest tournament in SW19 continues to build.

The weather looks pretty stunning over the next few days so we should get to see plenty of Tennis being played, but it looks like it is going to be tough going for the players with the heat that is expected to hit London. That's part of the challenges of getting into a position to win a Grand Slam title and I am looking forward to seeing things get underway at Wimbledon in a couple of days time.


On Friday we are down to the Semi Final matches at the three tournaments being played this week. A poor Thursday likely means it is going to be a losing week, but overall the grass court season has provided a positive before Wimbledon begins.


Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Ons Jabeur: You can't take anything away from Ons Jabeur and the run she has had so far this week, although the ankle she turned at the end of her Quarter Final win over Alize Cornet has to be a concern for a player in the best tournament of her career. Fortune has most definitely been on Jabeur's side so far this week with not one, but two matches being won in which she has won fewer points than her opponent.

That really is something that doesn't happen too often and certainly not twice in the same week, but the Tunisian is taking full advantage of the way things have fallen for her. The absence of Ashleigh Barty meant this quarter of the draw looked very open, although Jabeur needs to be given more credit for helping keep it open by beating Johanna Konta.

This is a big step up for her though as she gets set to take on Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final in Eastbourne. The defending Wimbledon Champion thumped Simona Halep in a very easy Quarter Final on Thursday and Kerber looks to be very comfortable back on the grass after a difficult clay court portion of the 2019 season.

Angelique Kerber is looking healthy and she has been serving very well in Eastbourne while backing it up with some decent returning. This has been one surface on which Kerber has tended to produce her best serving efforts and I do think that is going to put pressure on Jabeur who will find it tough to break the defences of her German opponent.

She did struggle on the return against Cornet in the Quarter Final and I think Kerber's style is similar while being more effective with what she does. You have to respect the fact that Jabeur seems to be playing with a lot of belief which has enabled her to come through matches when she has looked second best, but doing that against Kerber will be far from easy.

Even though Jabeur has put up four wins in a row in Eastbourne, I would have to point out the three sets she has dropped have been by 6-1, 6-2 and 6-1 scores. All of those have been the first set played and I think it will be a very long road back against Kerber if Jabeur starts off as slowly as she has in three of the four matches played this week.

Angelique Kerber is serving well enough to put Ons Jabeur in a tough spot in this match and I think she should win the match. I also think Kerber will cover if all things are equal on the day and Jabeur is not able to save multiple break points at tough times as she did in her wins over Evgeniya Rodina and Alize Cornet so far in Eastbourne.


Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: An injury meant Sam Querrey missed the vast majority of the clay court season, but I don't think that has ever been a particularly positive time of the year for him. The American has looked like he has never been away from the Tour this week in Eastbourne where he will be competing in the Semi Final against a surprise player reaching the last four in Thomas Fabbiano.

You may think Fabbiano would be player that is more likely to favour the clay courts than the grass courts being from Italy, but he has had some very good performances on the surface over recent years. In this tournament Fabbiano has come through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw and overcome a couple of difficult moments to reach the Semi Final.

The main reason for his success so far this week has to be how well Fabbiano has been able to look after his serve with 65% of points won behind that shot. That is a vast improvement on how things went for the Italian in 2018 and in the four matches he played on the grass prior to Eastbourne and it has also allowed him to hold closer to 80% of the service games he has played on the grass this week.

He has always been a surprisingly effective returner on the grass courts, but Thomas Fabbiano is going to be tested by Sam Querrey who has held 93% of his service games played in the tournament. It is going to be hard to break the Querrey serve if he continues to win 77% of the points played behind that shot and it is a big reason he has been able to come back and produce three wins on his return to competitive action.

Backing that up is Querrey's returning which matches up to what Thomas Fabbiano has produced this week. Both players are winning 41% of points against the opponent's serve, and that has led to Fabbiano breaking in 30% of return games and Querrey in 28%.

Their one previous match came on the grass courts of Wimbledon and on that day Querrey was able to hold 87% of his service games played and restrict Fabbiano to 69%. That came in 2017 when Thomas Fabbiano produced similar serving numbers as he has been in this tournament and I think Sam Querrey is going to get the better of him again.

It won't be an easy handicap to cover, but the American looks to be in fine nick and I think his serving makes the difference on the day. Thomas Fabbiano is still guilty of one or two really sloppy service games per match and Sam Querrey is returning well enough to take advantage while also restricting the chances that the Italian is able to generate.


Kyle Edmund - 1.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Having taken over from Andy Murray as the British Number 1 over the last twelve months, Kyle Edmund has been busy underlining that position this week in Eastbourne. Wins over Cameron Norrie and Dan Evans, the British Number 2 and Number 3 respectively, have seen Edmund reach the Semi Final of the tournament as he looks for the first real success on the grass courts.

This is far from an easy Semi Final as Edmund gets ready to take on Taylor Fritz who is considered one of the bright hopes of American Tennis. There is no doubt that Fritz has some room for improvement to really fulfil the potential he has, but he could be about to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of this tournament.

Taylor Fritz has won three matches while dropping one set to reach the Semi Final and his numbers have looked strong. The American possesses a serve that is always going to give him a chance on the grass courts and he has won 88% of his service games so far this week while securing 67% of the points behind the serve.

The key for Fritz so far this week is the level of returning which is far above the numbers he has produced on the grass courts in his career so far. In recent years on the grass courts Fritz has never surpassed winning 34% of return points during a season on the surface, but in this tournament he is up at 40% which is setting up more breaks of serve.

It will be a challenge to get into the Edmund service games when you think the British Number 1 has won 70% of the points played behind that shot. Kyle Edmund is holding 85% of his service games too, and like Fritz he is winning a lot more points on the return of serve than he has previously been able to do on the grass courts.

There are some real similarities with the way Edmund and Fritz have played on the grass courts and I do think this is going to be a close match. However it is Edmund who has been able to produce a little more consistently of the two players and I think that is going to be the factor that determines the outcome of this match even if we do potentially need three sets to separate them.

Taylor Fritz is improving and a real threat with the confidence he has, but Kyle Edmund might be the slightly more effective returner. With both possessing strong serves, that slight difference on the return could be a key to the outcome of the match and I will back the British player to give the home crowd something to smile about by reaching the Final in Eastbourne days before Wimbledon gets underway.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-8, - 2.12 Units (32 Units Staked, - 6.63% Yield)