French Open Day 15 Tennis Picks 2019- Men's Final (June 9th)

Ever since Ashleigh Barty returned to tennis following a spell out of the game to take up professional cricket the Australian has been an improving player week by week on the Tour.

I still did not foresee a French Open Champion in the making going into this tournament, but Barty is a deserved winner and I think she has the potential to kick on and become a threat at the other Slams remaining in 2019.

A lot of the first time Slam winners have struggled to deal with the expectation and new found fame that has come with becoming a Grand Slam Champion, but I think Barty will have learnt a lot about herself when removing herself from professional tennis when things got on top of her when she was younger. It should stand her in good stead to back up her position as a Slam Champion and World Number 2 and I actually think Barty is a much better grass court player than a clay court player as we head into the grass court season.


We will next see Ash Barty out there in a couple of weeks as she gets a bit of time to rest and digest what she achieved in Paris and deservedly so. However a short lead up into Wimbledon means she will want to get some grass court tennis under her feet and I imagine she will be involved in the big event that is played in Birmingham.

Before the official move onto the grass courts is made on Monday with the start of the main Tour events on the surface we do have to conclude the French Open with the Men's Final.

Rafael Nadal takes on Dominic Thiem for a second year in a row for the title and you can read my pick from the Final below.

It has been a good, but not great tournament for the Picks with a relatively poor end to the event preventing some really strong numbers being produced. However I can't ever be overly worried when a profit is produced to add to the 2019 successes as the clay court season moves into the grass court portion of the year.

Those grass events begin as soon as Monday if you are not counting the Challenger event that was played in Surbiton last week, but for now I will concentrate on trying to finish the French Open with hopefully one more win.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The Men's Final at the French Open is a repeat of the 2018 Final and it does feel it is going to be a real challenge for Dominic Thiem to really turn things around against Rafael Nadal.

The Austrian made history on Saturday by winning the interrupted Semi Final against Novak Djokovic and becoming the first player from that country to reach multiple Grand Slam Finals. Twenty-four years ago Thomas Muster won the French Open, but Thiem will be looking to match his compatriot although he has a tougher challenge than Muster did.

You have to credit Muster for beating a former French Open Champion in Michael Chang to take the title home in 1995, but Rafael Nadal is no mere former Champion. The Spaniard has dominated the French Open ever since he first played here and has written his name into history as being the finest player to play on the red dirt.

To be fair to Thiem he has beaten Nadal in four of their eleven previous matches on the clay courts including in Barcelona a couple of months ago. The win over Djokovic may have underlined his status as the second best player on clay, but Thiem has to overcome the tiredness of playing three long sets on Saturday and beating Nadal in a best of five set situation is not something he has done previously.

While the serve has been a potent weapon for Thiem on the clay courts, he is holding just 68% of his service games played on the surface against Nadal. This is the fourth meeting at Roland Garros and Thiem's holding numbers drop to 51% of service games played and it does feel like the kind of match where he will be under immense pressure if fatigue is an issue for him.

Dominic Thiem is yet to win a set against Nadal in Paris and in the last two years he has been beaten by the Spaniard which has to play on the mind. He has struggled to get into the Nadal service games and that has led to Thiem breaking in just 10% of return game played at the French Open and his return numbers against Nadal on the clay are not much better in general with breaks of serve in 16% of return games played.

Rafael Nadal continues to play at a high level on the clay courts, even if he has not matched 2017 and 2018, and he is performing better than his Austrian opponent. His level at the French Open has seen him outperform Thiem in every Round and I do think it is a big ask for the underdog considering the time spent on court and the lack of rest compared with the player who was strongly favoured to win the tournament before it all began.

Even the win in Barcelona might not have a huge impact on proceedings as Thiem beat Nadal in lead up events in 2017 and 2018 and still failed to put a dent on the Spaniard when it came to the French Open. In the last two years, the six sets played between these players have seen Nadal come through with a 6-4 scoreline (twice), 6-3 scoreline (twice), 6-2 and 6-0.

While I can see the adrenaline keeping Thiem competitive early on, at some stage the fatigue and the Nadal superiority on the surface will tell as it did when the Spaniard beat Roger Federer in the Semi Final. The conditions might not be 100% ideal for Nadal, but he should still be far too good on the day with the way the tournament has broken down and I think he can cover a big number.

The Rafael Nadal serve has been consistently strong throughout the tournament, but it will be the pressure exerted from the return of serve that can break down Dominic Thiem. With the lefty being able to produce his biggest shot into the Thiem backhand to open things up, I think Rafael Nadal will be the French Open Champion again behind another strong win over the Austrian.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 59-50, + 8.31 Units (217 Units Staked, + 3.83% Yield)