Tennis Picks 2019 (June 21st)

Thursday was the poorest day of the week so far as I ended up with my first losing day, but a strong end prevented it being a terrible day.

I have to take some of the blame, I overrated a couple of players I shouldn't have, while I was happy with my selection of Lucas Pouille even though he was beaten in three sets. At the price he was definitely the value play for me and on another day he would have won that match with the opportunities that had come his way at key moments.

On Friday we move onto the Quarter Final Round at the four events being played this week and that means there are sixteen matches to research through. A few of them are already ones in which I won't be making a selection as I don't feel comfortable backing either player, but hopefully I have made the right plays to have another positive day and move the weekly totals back in the right direction.


Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: For the second time in two weeks we are going to see Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov face off on the grass courts as they meet in Germany once again. Last week it was Berrettini who won when these two met in the First Round in Stuttgart, but Khachanov has had previous successes in Halle which should give him the belief he can turn things around.

It certainly won't be easy when you think of the confidence with which Berrettini is playing at the moment. He won the title in Stuttgart last week and that has taken him to a career best World Number 22 in the Rankings, and the Italian has shown very little sign that he is ready to give up the momentum he has built up since moving onto the grass.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Berrettini who was broken for the first time in the Second Round win over Andreas Seppi. He actually dropped the first set in that match, but Berrettini is very confident and was a comfortable winner on the day to move through to another Quarter Final.

It now means Berrettini has held almost 99% of the service games he has played on the grass in 2019. This week he has been very strong through the first two Rounds with 79% of points won behind the serve, although Karen Khachanov will certainly feel he can match his opponent in that department.

Karen Khachanov has now held 85% of his service games played on the grass courts in 2019, while he has been strong in Halle where he has held 92% of his service games played thanks to winning 73% of points behind serve. Make no mistake that both players will look to build pressure by running through their service games, but the big difference between them is how effective they have been returning.

Matteo Berrettini has broken in 21% of his return games played and is winning 35% of points against the opponent's serve. At the same time Khachanov is at 16% and 35% respectively and I do think that can make the difference in a match where the prices have been reversed from Stuttgart with Berrettini going in as the slight favourite.

This is going to be the third match between these two in 2019 including the second on the grass courts and it is Berrettini who has been more successful on the return. While he has held serve in 96% of service games played, Khachanov is at 75% and I am going to back the Italian to make it three wins in a row over this opponent whilst also being in a position to cover this number thanks to the superior return ability.


Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v David Goffin: This should be a very good Quarter Final match to watch with two talented players meeting in Halle on Friday. Alexander Zverev and David Goffin have both spent considerable time in the top ten of the World Rankings, but there have been some doubts with the level both have been producing in recent weeks.

Halle has been a good tournament for both men this week though as they have recorded some strong wins to make their way through to the Quarter Final. That should mean we see two confident players arrive on the court in the second match of the day, although I do think both Zverev and Goffin's confidence will be a little flaky considering the way recent weeks have gone.

We only have a small sample of grass court data and it does have to be said that Goffin's leaps from the page. However a deeper look shows he has won two matches extremely easily which are perhaps skewing how well he is playing, although on the other hand you can't ignore the fact that the Belgian has held 85% of his service games played on the grass over the last two weeks.

David Goffin has been able to back that up with some fine returning and this is a player that has played some solid tennis on the grass throughout his career. That certainly makes him a threat if Alexander Zverev is not at his best, but he continues to get plenty out of his service games and that should put him in a position to at least get on the front foot in rallies.

It will be the best way to try and keep Goffin from getting going on the return, but any second serves are likely being attacked with success.

Alexander Zverev has had his eye in when it comes to the return so far this week to back up the way he has been serving. He has broken in 31% of return games played in his two wins in Halle and I do think this is going to be a match where both players have plenty of break points.

The key could be that Zverev is likely going to be the player who can save a few more of those thanks to a big first serve, but I would not be surprised at all to this match going three sets. In their previous matches we have seen both players produce very similar numbers on the serve and return, but in the last two matches it is Zverev who has dominated the number of break points created.

I do think that will happen in this Quarter Final too and I will back Alexander Zverev to edge this match. Even in a three setter I think he will have every chance to cover the number in this one with an opportunity to win a set with a double break of serve and I will back the home hope to do that.


Stefanos Tsitsipas-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 24.5 games: In the years ahead matches between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime could easily be occurring at the business end of Grand Slam tournaments. Both of these very talented players continue to make a big impact on the ATP Tour while developing their games and both have the capabilities to be long-term top ten players once the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer move on.

They meet for the second time in 2019 and this time there is a Semi Final place on the line at the big pre-Wimbledon event held at Queens Club in West London. This tournament has long been a good indicator for success at SW19 and I think both players will be feeling good about their chances of going through to the final four.

I have to be slightly concerned with the amount of tennis both had to play on Thursday- Stefanos Tsitsipas had to come through a long, tough Second Round match after completing his First Round win over Kyle Edmund. It was more difficult for Felix Auger Aliassime who had to play both First and Second Round matches on the same day with almost three and a half hours spent on court.

At 18 years old I would hope the Canadian is able to recover to have a chance to be really competitive in this one. He is also backed up by an impressive serve which has seen Auger-Aliassime hold 94% of his service games played on the grass in 2019 which includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart last week. In the two matches played at Queens Auger-Aliassime has held every service games and has only faced two break points in the tournament.

Things would have been easier for him if Auger-Aliassime had been more effective on the return of serve, but that has not been the case and he has had to battle for his wins. The youngster is winning less than 30% of the return points played on the grass and Auger-Aliassime has broken in 10% of return games played this week.

He won't find it much easier against Stefanos Tsitsipas who has held 85% of his own service games played on the grass. The Greek star has been more effective at returning serve and that suggests the layers have got the right favourite in this match, but Auger-Aliassime crushed Tsitsipas in Indian Wells back in March and I do think this is going to be a close and competitive match.

Both players should have plenty of success when it comes to the serve and I would not be surprised if we get two very competitive sets to start this match. One break for either player may be enough to secure the set, but I also think there is every chance for the players to run through their service games and be forced into tie-breakers to determine sets.

I also wouldn't rule out a third set to decide the winner and I will back this match to produce more games than the total games line set even though it is a very large number. With the two players serving as they are, I can only see a competitive Quarter Final and far closer than the comfortable win Auger-Aliassime had over Tsitsipas in Indian Wells.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 24.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez @ 3.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-11, + 22.06 Units (72 Units Staked, + 30.64% Yield)