French Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2019 (June 2nd)

This has not been as strong a tournament as I would have liked, but the better results on Day 7 have kept the total for the French Open in a positive position. I am looking to kick on from here now we have entered the second week of the second Grand Slam of the season and the Fourth Round gets going on Sunday.

Most of the big names have made it through in the men's draw, but the women's draw looks wide open. Some talented teenagers have broken through to the second week of the French Open and there is every chance that a surprise name can still win the title here, although Simona Halep is rightly favoured.


Petra Martic - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: Every player in the bottom half of the women's draw at Roland Garros is going to be full of belief that they can reach the Final of the second Grand Slam of the season. One who may be feeling about as confident as any in that half of the draw has to be Petra Martic who has played some strong tennis on the clay courts in each of the last three seasons.

The Croatian has yet to get past the Fourth Round of any Grand Slam so I do think Martic will be dealing with some pressure in this one, especially as she is going in as the favourite. That has not been the case in either the Second or Third Round as Martic has upset Kristina Mladenovic and Karolina Pliskova in fine style.

She has yet to drop a set at the French Open and Martic has not extended herself by being out on court for too long. It is important at the Slams to try and get through the first week without having to play too much tennis and the fact that Martic has been able to beat players so convincingly as the underdog does hold her in good shape.

Of course you do have to deal with a different pressure when the expectation is on you and that is something Martic has to show she can handle. If she plays her best tennis I would expect she has too much for Kaia Kanepi who has tended to play her best tennis on the faster surfaces on the Tour.

I am not saying that Kanepi is not capable on the clay courts, but she has struggled in recent years with injury and her performances against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface don't offer a lot of confidence. The Estonian has also had to spend a lot longer on the court than Martic so fitness could become an issue in this one and Martic returns at a high level to keep pressure on Kanepi behind one of her stronger shots.

There will be times when Kanepi strings some strong returns together too as you tend to find in a WTA match, but I do think Martic is the superior player and should be able to take control of the match. As long as she can handle the pressure of playing for a place in her first Grand Slam Quarter Final, Petra Martic should have enough to cover this spread in a victory.


Donna Vekic v Johanna Konta: There are only two places between these two players in the World Rankings and the layers are also finding it difficult to separate Donna Vekic and Johanna Konta in a big Fourth Round match for both players.

I still can't quite believe how young Donna Vekic is having spent a long time on the professional circuit and she is still aiming for her maiden Quarter Final in a Grand Slam. The run in Paris has surpassed her previous best here and Vekic has matched the Fourth Round run at Wimbledon last year, but that also means she is dealing with a different pressure now she has entered the second week of a Slam for only the second time in her career.

Johanna Konta has more experience in general with a Semi Final at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon under her belt, while she has another Quarter Final run Down Under to add to that. However her previous efforts on a clay court have not really been good enough and this year is the first time she has won a match in Paris after what has been a strong showing on the surface.

Reaching the Final in Rabat and Rome has given Konta confidence and she was a dominant winner in the Third Round. Like Vekic she has only dropped one set on her way through to the Fourth Round, although the most impressive win may have been the Vekic crushing of Belinda Bencic in the Third Round.

The more consistent clay court performances over a three year window have come from Vekic too, while she has won the last two matches against Konta in what has become a real rivalry. They have split six previous matches, but none of them have been played on the clay courts where I would give Vekic a slight edge overall.

Her level of performance in 2019 has not been too far behind Konta's and I am anticipating a close match. However I think the wrong player is being favoured and this is a match that is going to be decided on one or two points here and there. My feeling is that Vekic has been the better clay courter and Konta may struggle to keep her level where it is right now, especially against a player who has gotten the better of her the last two times they have played.

Serving is going to be important on the day, but I will back the underdog to move through to her maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final.


Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: At the time of writing there are still three talented teenagers in the women's French Open draw, but the only one that has currently guaranteed of a place in the Fourth Round is Marketa Vondrousova. Confidence has to be flowing through the Czech player as she heads into her second Fourth Round of a Grand Slam after doing the same when reaching the stage at the US Open last year.

At the moment the favoured surface for Vondrousova is the clay courts and she has backed up a strong build up to the French Open by coming through three Rounds without too many concerns. Her win over veteran Carla Suarez Navarro in the Third Round is a strong one considering some of the early dents Vondrousova had to deal with.

She has maintained her composure and being level headed is a good sign heading into this big Fourth Round match. Marketa Vondrousova faces Anastasija Sevastova in the Fourth Round who came through an epic Third Round match against Elise Mertens that ended 11-9 in the third set.

I do wonder if that is going to have a lingering affect on Sevastova having spent well over three hours on court to eventually prevail and move through. She had been in good form through the first couple of Rounds against overmatched opponents, but the Latvian has not been at her best on the clay and this is a seriously tough match in front of her.

Before this tournament, Sevastova had not been beyond the Third Round in Paris and her numbers in the lead up to the event were not the best. The second serve could be in trouble if there is any fatigue in the body and Sevastova could be asked to continuously fight back from breaks of serve behind.

It makes life very difficult if that is the case, but Sevastova should have some successes considering the Vondrousova serve is yet to be a potent weapon for her. However Vondrousova has been very strong on the return of serve both here in Paris and in the lead up tournaments to the French Open and I think that is going to be putting a lot of pressure on the World Number 12.

With the long match in mind I think Sevastova may fall away in this one the longer it goes on and I like Marketa Vondrousova to come through and cover the number too.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: You know you've been on the Tour a very long time when you say you know more about someone's father than the player you are playing in the next Round. That was the case for Roger Federer when taking on Casper Ruud in the Third Round and the former World Number 1 was in impressive form to move through to another Grand Slam Fourth Round.

Roger Federer will go into this match as a big favourite against veteran Leonardo Mayer and understandably so. The Argentinian may consider the clay courts his favoured surface, but he has reached the Fourth Round for the first time in Paris and this is only the second time Mayer is playing in a Fourth Round of any Grand Slam having reached that Round once at Wimbledon.

During 2019 Mayer has taken a set off of Rafael Nadal on the clay, which is always a real achievement, but he was just 4-7 prior to the French Open. The serve is a decent weapon for him as Mayer has held 82% of service games played on the surface in 2019, while he has only been broken seven times in three matches at the French Open.

If Mayer serves at his very best level he can certainly give Federer one or two things to think about, but the weakness on the return of serve means the pressure builds. Prior to this tournament he had only broken in 14% of return games played on the clay courts and won just 34% of return points and I don't anticipate Mayer getting a lot of change out of Federer.

One of the declining factors in the Federer game has been the return of serve, but he has been doing well enough on that side of his game in Paris. These two players haven't met since 2016, but Federer has had success against the Mayer serve in the past and even the ever hotter conditions in Paris may not be enough for the Argentinian to stay with Federer over the course of a couple of hours on the court.

This is a big number of games for anyone to receive once we reach the Fourth Round when players have their eye in. The court could play a bit quicker with the heat around Paris, but even then I think Federer is going to be moving through the gears and being able to eventually pull clear. Leonardo Mayer deserves to be respected, but I like Federer to come away with a win and a cover as he moves into the Quarter Final.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: In any Grand Slam the big names try and get through the draw in the first week as serenely as possible to make sure there isn't any lingering fatigue affecting their performance at the business end. Both Kei Nishikori and Benoit Paire may have missed the memo having played sloppy sets to fall into deep five setters and now they play each other for a place in the Quarter Final of the French Open.

This is already the best run Benoit Paire has had in his home Grand Slam and he came through the Third Round in three sets after Pablo Carreno Busta had to retire with an injury. That could be a huge benefit for the Frenchman considering he needed to come through the Second Round with an 11-9 final set win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert and following a week in which he won the title in Lyon.

Instead the question about fatigue could be asked of Kei Nishikori a little more considering he had to fight back from a double break down to beat Laslo Djere in the final set in the Third Round. Spending almost four and a half hours on the court is not ideal, especially not when Nishikori had chances to win the match in four sets and his fitness has long been a question mark against him.

Spending more than double the time on the court than Paire had to has to play a part in this one, but I think both men have spent too long out there already. Kei Nishikori at least has the experience of reaching Quarter Finals in a multiple of Grand Slams and including twice before in Paris, while he has generally been a strong clay courter than Paire.

The Japanese star also holds the mental edge of having a pretty strong record against Paire and beat him here in five sets last year. In their previous matches Nishikori has broken in 31% of return games played compared to Paire's 16%.

On the clay those numbers are even more leaned towards Nishikori in that he has broken in 41% of return games played compared with Benoit Paire's 20%. Last year it was a close match to be fair to Paire and this time Nishikori could be feeling the amount of tennis he needed to play in the Third Round, but Paire has been the midst of a long two weeks too and it may equal things out anyway.

Benoit Paire may be playing his best tennis on the clay courts at the moment, but I think Kei Nishikori matches up with him pretty well. Even if this match goes long, Paire is never that far away from a meltdown within a set and that may be enough to help Nishikori cover the spread.

MY PICKS: Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

French Open Update: 45-38, + 5.59 Units (167 Units Staked, + 3.35% Yield)