The rain is playing havoc across Europe and the tennis events this week have not really been able to avoid it either. For the most part the ATP Stuttgart tournament has stayed on schedule, but that is not the case elsewhere on what should have been Quarter Final day at all of the events being played.
It could mean some double duty for a few of the players on Friday, but the majority of the Quarter Finals have been set and will hopefully be completed on the day.
I was disappointed with the way the Thursday selections went and a bit frustrated with some of my decision making. The good news is that those poor decisions were recognised and hopefully will be turned around before the week is up.
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: The grass court season is a good time for Denis Kudla and his record on the surface is perhaps not a complete indication of how well he can play. A Semi Final run in Surbiton ended with a harsh defeat to Victor Troicki, but the American has refused to let that get him down and he has played well on his way to a Quarter Final in Stuttgart.
A battling win over Gael Monfils saw Kudla dig deep and come through a final set tie-breaker in a match that lasted close to two and a half hours. I do wonder if that is going to play some part in this Quarter Final with no rest days between matches as you have in the Grand Slams, but the quicker points on the grass does help with any recovery.
Denis Kudla has always got a real bite out of his serve on the grass and over the last couple of seasons he has proved to be someone who can use that to pressurise opponents on the return. The American is going to need all of that returning ability when he takes on Matteo Berrettini who is an improving player on the Tour and moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings.
It should mean Berrettini is in a position to be Seeded at Wimbledon and his two wins in Stuttgart have not only been impressive for who he has beaten, but also the manner in which the Italian has won. Wins over Nick Kyrgios and Karen Khachanov have come in straight sets and Berretini has not faced a break point in either match as the big serve has set him up to control points from the off.
He is getting plenty out of the return too and I do think Berrettini can outhit Kudla in this big serving match. I am anticipating both players to run through some service games without too many issues, but Berrettini is someone who looks like he could be a comfortable grass courter and with the right draw at Wimbledon he may be able to earn plenty of Ranking points too.
Both players will be familiar with one another as they play for the sixth time since the Australian Open in January 2018. So far it is Kudla who leads 3-2, but the two matches in 2019 have been split and Berrettini has looked the better player without quite winning both matches.
Those two matches have come on different surfaces with Kudla winning a hard court match and Berrettini winning on the clay. Those results might have been expected, but it is Berrettini who looked stronger behind serve in both matches, but he was not able to deal with the pressurised break points as well as he would have liked. That could be a problem on the grass where it is so hard to retrieve breaks of serve, but I think Berrettini can edge past Kudla in this one and he may have enough to cover this number too.
Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After missing the entire clay court season, Milos Raonic must be happy that he is back and winning matches on the Tour. The next month is important for him to prevent a slide down the World Rankings with plenty of points to defend, and that includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart twelve months ago.
The Canadian has beaten Alexei Popyrin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the Quarter Final, but both matches have taken three sets and Raonic has spent plenty of time on the court. That has to be a concern for a player who has been off the Tour for as long as Raonic has been, but he is serving very well and that is always going to put some pressure on opponents.
In this tournament Raonic has held 97% of the service games he has played and he is someone whose serve has always been the most effective on this surface. The only reason matches have not been that straight-forward for Raonic is his poor returning numbers so far, but he may get a few more chances against Marton Fucsovics.
All credit has to be given to Fucsovics who has beaten Jaume Munar and Nikoloz Basilashvili and who has held 85% of the service games he has played. However it should be noted that this number is far above his usual levels produced on the grass courts and I do think he will eventually see it come down to a more consistent standard that Fucsovics has been able to produce.
His returning is superior to Raonic's, but Fucsovics will have to show he has learnt plenty from the 6-4, 6-2 defeat suffered to the Canadian on this court twelve months ago. On that day Fucsovics could not get his teeth into the Raonic serve at all and it was the higher Ranked player who was more comfortable when it came to the return and I do think something similar could occur in this Quarter Final.
You can't ignore the amount of time Raonic has spent on the court on his return to the Tour, but I think the serve does make his life easier. If Raonic continues to find his marks as he has been, I think he will have the majority of break points and can have one of his more straight-forward wins of the week.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Christian Garin: There was a time when Borna Coric was perhaps not at his most comfortable on the grass courts, but in 2019 he is looking to follow on from his most successful year on the surface. I have mentioned before that the small sample from the three or four tournaments on the grass can make it difficult to really get a good read of how players can and have been performing on the surface, but the signs for the young Croatian are good.
Last year he reached the Final in Halle and I think it may be a positive sign that he has taken in the tournament in Hertogenbosch. My feeling is that Coric does believe he can perform well enough on the grass if he gives himself time to get a few matches under his belt and the come from behind win over Taylor Fritz will boost the mindset.
Borna Coric played well in that match and his serve proved to be a key weapon, while his return is always going to be one that can put opponents under pressure.
In this Quarter Final Coric is taking on Christian Garin who is another young, improving player on the Tour. In the last couple of years Garin has only played at Wimbledon with his Ranking giving him a place in the main draw, but defeats in the First Round each time suggested he might not be at his best on the grass.
I am still not quite sure how comfortable Garin is on the grass, but back to back wins in Hertogenbosch will help. His serve is perhaps not as effective as Coric's, but Garin has been returning very well in his two matches here with breaks of serve in 45% of return games played.
Again I will mention the relatively small sample and the percentage of points won on the return are markedly up on his previous performances on the surface. I am not sure Garin will have the same kind of success when he faces Borna Coric whose serve should set him up a little better than Garin over the course of this match.
It could be a fun match with both players capable on the return, but I think Coric is the superior grass courter and he can show that with a win and a cover of this spread.
MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.74 Units (32 Units Staked, - 17.94% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment