However we still have some decent names reaching this stage of the tournaments being played this week and it is a chance for players to lay down a marker for the third Grand Slam of the season. As I mentioned earlier this week, the WTA Eastbourne event is certainly the most eye-catching thanks to the strength of the field they have been able to put together and there are players there who will believe they can ride the momentum from a strong run here into the first week at SW19.
Tuesday was not a very good day for the Tennis Picks which went 2-3 including the two matches that were completed after rain delays forced them to return to the courts after beginning matches on Monday. The good news is that it is still a positive week to now and I am looking to put a good number on the board before turning my attention to the next Slam of the season.
Selections look difficult to make on Wednesday, but I have seen four matches that have fallen within the criteria I have set for the last couple of seasons.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Ons Jabeur: From the outset you have to say that this is a huge number of games for anyone to cover once players have had a couple of matches under their belts, but there are a number of similar spreads in the WTA Eastbourne Third Round matches on Wednesday. The others do seem unappealing on paper, but I do think Johanna Konta has every chance of covering here while continuing her strong form in her home tournament.
It was a difficult match for Konta on Tuesday against Maria Sakkari, but she did enough to edge through in two sets and I do think this is a match a step down from the kind of opposition she faced last time out.
This time Johanna Konta faces Ons Jabeur who was forced to retire from her match last week in Mallorca. That has seemingly not been a lingering issue though as Jabeur has twice come from a set down to win matches this week in what has become an open portion of the draw since Ashleigh Barty withdraw from the tournament.
The Tunisian has regularly shown a solidity on the grass courts without being anything above that. Even her two wins this week have come in close fashion and none of the opponents Jabeur has beaten is anything near the level that Johanna Konta can produce on the grass courts.
This is only the sixth time Jabeur has played a top 50 Ranked opponent on the grass courts and she is 0-5 in those previous matches. The serve is a weapon that can keep Jabeur competitive, but she has struggled with her return of serve and that should be magnified when facing a server like Konta.
I do think it can be difficult to trust Konta to cover this kind of number when you think of the returning stats she produces on the grass courts. This week Konta has won 41% of return points in her two wins, but I do think she can improve on that mark against Jabeur especially if she is seeing plenty of second serves.
In their one sole match back in 2015 Johanna Konta crushed Ons Jabeur for the loss of just four games on a hard court. This one might be a touch closer than that, but Konta is strong enough on the grass to find the three or four breaks of serve she is going to need to cover this mark.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The former Eastbourne Champion has tended to play her best grass court tennis at this tournament and Karolina Pliskova will be searching for another Quarter Final spot here on Wednesday. She will have been disappointed with the early exit in Birmingham last week, but that was a tough draw for Pliskova who was beaten by her twin sister in the Second Round.
A comfortable win in the Second Round here after a bye in the First Round will have given Karolina Pliskova some confidence to take into this match. However she is going to need more than belief to beat Elise Mertens who has had a good month on the grass leading into this match.
The Belgian has had plenty of success on the grass throughout her career, but it has been a much different story when she has faced top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface. In those matches Mertens is just 4-9 while her entire stats on serve and return have taken a significant hit in those matches as the competition ramps up.
That is certainly going to be the case for Mertens on Wednesday and it will be a really difficult match if Karolina Pliskova continues to serve as big as she has been. The first serve has been a huge weapon for the Czech player so far in her three matches on the grass with almost 80% of points being won behind the first serve.
We should see that number being tested by Mertens who is a strong returner and has the movement to make Pliskova play enough balls to extract mistakes from her game. However I also think that serve is going to make the difference between the players on the day and can help Pliskova win and cover the number.
The Pliskova return has not been the most effective on the grass courts which has to be a concern when asking her to find multiple breaks of serve to cover. My feeling is that she is going to have more joy returning the Mertens serve and Pliskova did win 45% of return points in her win over Margarita Gasparyan in he Second Round to believe in her ability to get the better of this opponent.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: We hadn't seen a lot of grass court pedigree from Ekaterina Alexandrova before the last month and the Russian might be in even stronger form this week than the previous two. Wins over Alja Tomljanovic and Belinda Bencic look very good and confidence has to be high.
Those wins have come behind some very strong serving which has helped Alexandrova put some serious pressure on opponents. She was broken three times by Bencic in the Second Round, but in general the numbers being produced by Alexandrova have to be impressing.
It will be interesting to see how she deals with Jelena Ostapenko who has made it clear she is very much enjoying being back on the grass courts after a difficult year. The results have been strong for the Latvian who has won 50% of her return points played so far this week which has helped make up for some of the loose serving Ostapenko has become known for.
The first serve hasn't been a big problem for Ostapenko, but the second serve can be vulnerable to the point where she pushes too hard and can produce a host of double faults. Giving up free points is not ideal the later you get into a tournament, but the aggressive play Ostapenko produces seems to be well suited to the grass courts and can give her the edge in this match.
As well as Alexandrova has played on the grass over the last couple of weeks, her return has not been as potent as Ostapenko's. The Russian has shown significant improvement on her return compared to previous seasons on the grass, but I think it could be a tough match for her against the Ostapenko first serve.
It feels like it will be a match with a few breaks of serve shared out, but Jelena Ostapenko can continue her strong form shown over the last couple of weeks. Ekaterina Alexandrova has to be respected in her current form, but I am looking for the Ostapenko return to prove to be the key to her success in this match and I will back her to cover.
MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-3, + 2.28 Units (16 Units Staked, + 14.25% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment