Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2019 (July 1st)

And so here we go.

Two weeks of Grand Slam Tennis at the third Slam of the 2019 season begins in SW19 on Monday and the sun looks to be shining in London at just the right time. Getting through the first week will make the weather almost irrelevant in the second week as two of the main show courts at Wimbledon will now have roofs to ensure play can continue even in the event of wet conditions to come around.

As I said a couple of days ago, Wimbledon looks a really open tournament as far as the women's event is concerned. That has been the case in the last two years of the major tournaments played on the WTA Tour and I would be surprised if the top Seeds all make their way through to the second week.

Instead I am expecting similar to recent tournaments and Slams where the final four and final eight have a number of surprise names in Slams over the last eighteen months. One or two names which have stood out to me are Karolina Pliskova and Venus Williams who are in the weaker bottom half of the draw and who are both big looking prices considering form and the games they have for the grass.

I have to be expecting shocks in the women's draw and I think there will be one or two unfamiliar faces in the final eight in eight days time, but that should not be the case for the men's draw where the top three players in the world have to be short odds on favourites to have one of them pick up the title in two weeks time. Novak Djokovic looks the right favourite with the way the draw has panned out too, although I think both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will head to SW19 with plenty of confidence too.

Anything else would be a real surprise, although there are some talented youngsters who don't feel that far away from making a big impact at this level.


It wasn't a great week for the Tennis Picks in the last week prior to the beginning of Wimbledon, but the draw for the tournament has provided a few options from Day 1 of the tournament as I look to get the third Slam off to a positive start.

Day 1 looks to be a very good day for the players with warm, but not hot conditions expected in London. It might be a bit breezy too which will help players remain cool and focus on what they want to do on the courts.

As I have done for the early Rounds at the French Open, I will write out analysis for a few of the Tennis Picks and add the rest to the 'MY PICKS' section below. Let's hope for a strong two weeks at the third Grand Slam of 2019.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: An injury prevented Roberto Bautista Agut from competing at Wimbledon twelve months ago. He has dropped down to World Number 22 in the Rankings, but he has reached the Third Round in his last four appearances at Wimbledon and twice gone on to make the second week so there is a real chance he can reverse his slide down the Rankings here.

The Spaniard is definitely someone who has gotten as much out of his ability as he could and Bautista Agut has played well enough on the grass to take advantage of the draw in front of him. There are one or two dangerous players in his section of the draw if Bautista Agut is going to make the second week of Wimbledon, but he should be good enough to make hay in this First Round match.

Roberto Bautista Agut did reach the Quarter Final in Halle in his sole grass court tournament building into Wimbledon and a three set defeat to Roger Federer is not anything to be ashamed of. He did hold 90% of his service games across the three matches played there and the 22% break percentage is a decent return frm a small sample on the grass considering who Bautista Agut faced in Halle.

He should not be playing someone of the level of Taylor Fritz (Eastbourne Champion), or Roger Federer (Halle Champion) in the First Round here where Bautista Agut has been drawn against Peter Gojowczyk. This will be the fifth time these two players have met on the Tour and Bautista Agut has some very strong numbers against him with four straight wins including a pretty comfortable victory at Wimbledon two years ago.

The last two years have been difficult for Gojowcyzk on the grass courts as he has lost all four matches played in 2018 and 2019 and three of those have come in the last month. The German has been holding 82% of his service games played in those three grass court matches, but his returning has been struggling and now he faces someone who has dominated his serve in the matches between them.

Roberto Bautista Agut has broken in 51% of the return games played against Peter Gojowcyzk in their four previous matches and that number only slipped to 50% in ther match at Wimbledon in 2017. There has been some success Gojowcyzk has enjoyed against the Bautista Agut serve, but this looks like a match that Bautista Agut should be pretty comfortable in and I am going to look for him to use the superior returning to cover what is a large handicap in front of him.


Denis Kudla - 6.5 games v Malek Jaziri: In recent years Denis Kudla has produced some decent tennis on the grass courts, although he has been a player that is happy to take in the Challenger events around this time of the season. Qualifiers are also something Kudla has had to deal with with his World Ranking dropping out of the top 100, but the American has reached the Semi Final in a big Challenger down in Surbiton and the Quarter Final of an ATP 250 event in Stuttgart which should give him some belief.

What has become clear is that Kudla has been comfortable taking on players of a certain level on this surface and he is someone who has had some decent numbers in 2019. If you only consider players Ranked outside the top 50 of the World Rankings, Denis Kudla has held 82% of his service games and broken in 26% of return games played across nine matches over the last month.

In the First Round at Wimbledon Denis Kudla has been drawn to face Malek Jaziri who has yet to play a grass court match over the last month as he has instead focused on reversing his own slide down the World Rankings with Challenger events held on the clay courts. The Tunisian is just 1-6 in his last seven grass court matches with the last of those coming in a straight sets defeat to Jared Donaldson here at SW19 twelve months ago.

Malek Jaziri has simply not produced the same level on serve or return as his opponent in the First Round, while the head to head between these two players reads 2-0 in favour of Denis Kudla.

One of those matches came on the grass in 2015, while the last match came in Cincinnati last year in a Qualifier. Both wins for Kudla have come on fast surfaces and I think that is going to give him the confidence to see off Jaziri in the First Round.

There is little reason to suggest this is anything but a big number on the handicap, but I am not sure Jaziri will have a lot of belief coming into the match. His two losses to Denis Kudla have been one-sided and the last two years on the grass courts have not been much fun for the Tunisian who has held just 70% of the service games he has played on this surface across his last seven matches. Malek Jaziri has broken in 15% of return games in that time too and I think Denis Kudla can find the breaks of serve to enable pretty comfortable passage through to the Second Round.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The World Number 1 is going into Wimbledon to defend the title he won in 2018 and he is the favourite to win the title here having been the beneficiary of a good looking draw. The two main rivals to Novak Djokovic have been placed in the opposite half of the draw and I do think it is going to beat the Serb before the Final in a little under two weeks time.

Things were so different twelve months ago as Novak Djokovic had come into Wimbledon after being upset at the French Open by Marco Cecchinato. Frustration was getting the better of Djokovic who had even thought about missing the third Grand Slam of the 2018 season, but it turned out a fantastic decision as the tournament sparked a very strong run.

Novak Djokovic didn't just win the title at Wimbledon, but it propelled him to win the US Open and Australian Open and only a tight Semi Final loss to Dominic Thiem at the French Open has ended his winning streak at the Slams. Now he will be looking to get a new run started as he opens Centre Court on the first day of Wimbledon as is the honour afforded to the defending men's Champion.

He might have hoped for an easier draw than facing Philipp Kohlschreiber who has been a comfortable grass court player throughout his career and who beat Djokovic at Indian Wells in March for his first win over this opponent in seven years. Since then Djokovic has earned some revenge by beating the German in Monte Carlo and Rome on the clay courts and I do think the match up is one that the World Number 1 should be relatively comfortable with.

While there have been times when Kohlschreiber has had success against the Djokovic serve, the latter has broken in 33% of return games played and should be able to put this opponent under pressure. The fact that Kohlschreiber has lost both grass court matches played in the last three weeks and his continuing declining numbers as far as the return of serve goes should give Djokovic the edge even in his first competitive match on the surface in 2019.

In both 2017 and 2018 Djokovic has been very strong behind serve on the grass, but it is the returning where he has really impressed and been a big part of the reason he has compiled a combined 19-2 run on the surface across that time. He will feel he can capitalise on Kohlschreiber's serve if the latter is unable to improve on the 75% of service games held across his two matches this year on the grass courts and I do give Novak Djokovic a considerable edge.

A first match on the grass can mean some players take time to acclimatise with their surroundings and their sole match at Wimbledon saw Djokovic win 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. This time I think he can cover a big number on the handicap by finding at least one or two more breaks of serve than he did in 2015 and I also think Djokovic will be a little tougher to break for the German which can see him produce a slightly wider margin of victory.


Andrea Arnaboldi-Ivo Karlovic over 39.5 games: Arguably the most famous win in Ivo Karlovic's career came at Wimbledon back in 2003 when he defeated Lleyton Hewitt in the First Round. That win came at a time when Karlovic was considering his future in the sport, but he Qualified for the tournament and then became only the second player to beat the defending Champion in the First Round at Wimbledon.

Ever since the Croatian has made a very good career for himself despite the limitations on the return of serve. However the huge serve possessed by the big man has made Ivo Karlovic a dangerous opponent for every player on the Tour and a peak Ranking of Number 14 is not to be disrespected.

It is something of a surprise to see a 40 year old Ivo Karlovic still out on the Tour competing, although there are signs this could be the final year for him. He is slipping down the World Rankings and Karlovic is just 4-3 on the grass courts over the last month as he continues to serve big, but the return has declined a little more.

Ivo Karlovic is still not going to be an easy out and he is favoured to beat Andrea Arnaboldi who has come through three tough Qualifiers to make the First Round at Wimbledon. This is actually the first time the Italian is going to be playing in the main draw at this Grand Slam, but he will be feeling good for the three wins he has produced in the Qualifiers even if Arnaboldi does not have a deep grass court pedigree to say the least.

He has tried to Qualify for Wimbledon before but fallen short, although I do think Arnaboldi can feel good about his performances to get into the First Round. It will be a boost to the World Ranking, but a really big one if he can upset Karlovic even if this is going to be a challenge for him.

Andrea Arnaboldi is going to have to have a very big serving day to have a chance because I am not sure he is going to have a lot of joy out of the Ivo Karlovic serve. The Croatian can be vulnerable early in the Wimbledon tournament with a number of early exits here and I do think Arnaboldi can perhaps steal a set at the very least which is the reason for this selection.

Ivo Karlovic is rightly the favourite, but he is someone who is going to rely on a single break of serve to try and win sets. Three of his last four First Round matches at Wimbledon have gone at least four sets and this is a match that could feature at least two tie-breakers. I can't really see Andrea Arnaboldi winning this in straight sets, but the Italian is capable of stealing a tie-breaker at the least and I will look for the total games mark to be surpassed.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: An arm injury was perhaps slowing Stefanos Tsitsipas down when he played at Queens last month, but he was back in action in exhibition matches last week and should be ready to compete at Wimbledon. The young Greek superstar is going to have plenty of fans backing him in the third Grand Slam of the season, although I do think the return is going to continue to hold him back at this stage of his career.

It makes it difficult to back Tsitsipas when it comes to covering big spreads like we see in the First Round on Monday, but this is the second year in a row he will be facing Thomas Fabbiano at this Grand Slam. Twelve months ago Stefanos Tsitsipas beat the Italian pretty comfortably in a Third Round match and I do think the match up is one that should not tax the higher Ranked player from a mental or physical standpoint.

I do like Thomas Fabbiano who gives plenty of himself on the court, and this is a player that should be respected having reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne last week. However he had a couple of early defeats on the grass prior to that tournament and it was a long week for the Italian having started in the Qualifiers in Eastbourne before the improbable run to the final four.

Even with that run behind him, Thomas Fabbiano is holding just 76% of his service games played on the grass and I do think his is a vulnerable shot. That will help someone like Tsitsipas get his teeth into the return games and improve his own numbers, and I do think that is a difference maker in the match.

Like a lot of players who can be vulnerable on the serve, Fabbiano is someone that does get the most out of his return. Even that side of his game will be challenged by someone like Tsitsipas who has held 82% of his service games played on the grass in 2019 and who had been up at 89% in 2018.

In their match last year at Wimbledon Tsitsipas was breaking the Italian's serve for fun and while I can't expect those numbers again, I do think the top ten Ranked player can have plenty of success in this one too. It should give Tsitsipas the chance to be in a position to cover this handicap mark, although I do think Thomas Fabbiano has been playing well enough over the last ten days to be afforded plenty of respect.

I would not be surprised if one of the sets is very competitive, but Stefanos Tsitsipas should be able to secure at least one set with a double break of serve. That should be enough to put him in a position to cover the mark and I will look for him to do that in the First Round.


Kyle Edmund - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: There was some very good news for fans of British tennis that Andy Murray looks to have come through his surgery which could mean a return to the Singles Tour in the coming months. However he is only able to play Doubles at Wimbledon this summer which means there is more pressure on the other big names to find their best tennis at the tournament which garners the most headlines from the sport in the United Kingdom.

The British Number 1 going into Wimbledon is Kyle Edmund, although a poor 2019 has seen him slip down the World Rankings. His place as the top rated British player is going to be threatened by Cameron Norrie and Dan Evans over the next few months, but a strong performance at SW19 will keep those players at arm's length for Edmund.

Having a big tournament is no guarantee for Edmund though as he has yet to find his most consistent tennis on the surface. A strong run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne last week will have given Edmund some confidence, while the draw for the First Round looks a good one against an opponent who has yet to win a grass court match on the pro Tour in his career.

For Edmund to have a very good Wimbledon he will have to pick up his play as far as the returning goes on the surface. His serve is a big weapon for him though and I expect that can keep Jaume Munar under some element of control in this match, especially as the Spaniard has won just 9% of return games played in his two losses on the grass this past month.

The Spaniard has found some decent serving of his own as he has been able to hold 81% of the service games played in his two matches with Marton Fucsovics and Borna Coric. That isn't that surprising a number considering the surface and the fact he has played Coric at a time when he was not at his best and eventually pulling out of the tournament in Halle and Wimbledon with an injury.

I do think Munar will have some joy against Edmund considering the latter has not managed to get higher than an 18% break percentage in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019. That should give the inexperienced grass courter an opportunity to get into a couple of the sets and perhaps even edge one, but Edmund should have the superior serve on the numbers and that will build pressure.

Covering the number is no forgone conclusion, but I do think that pressure will see Munar perhaps slip away in one set in the longest format of the sport. As long as Kyle Edmund can cope with being the British Number 1 at Wimbledon, like he was last year, I think he should have enough to win this First Round match and get over the line set by the layers.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Cori Gauff: I wanted to write down a few words about the match that should earn plenty of headlines on Monday on the first day of the Championships. Cori 'Coco' Gauff has become the youngest Qualifier to reach the Wimbledon main draw and at 15 years old there is a bright future in front of her.

There have been the inevitable comparisons with the Williams Sisters already, and the early successes in her career certainly suggest Gauff is capable of making it as far as she wants in the sport.

It may have come out of a Hollywood script, but the draw pitting Gauff against Venus Williams has really raised the whole expectation around her Grand Slam debut at Wimbledon. Winning three matches as comfortably as she did to get here will also mean there will be plenty of expectation on the shoulders of the young American against a veteran who is looking for one more big run at SW19.

This is by far the biggest match of Gauff's young career and I think it is a situation in which most expect her to thrive rather than freeze on the big stage. Playing on Court One is a big ask of anyone though, no matter how level headed you are, and I think Venus Williams is going to have too much for her on a surface on which Williams is still able to play some of her best tennis.

The key for Venus Williams is that I think she is going to have plenty of joy on the return of serve and her own serve is still producing enough free points to offer a real challenge for Gauff. I would not be surprised if one set is quite competitive as I can see a situation where Venus Williams perhaps is not motivated enough to want to embarrass someone she will look at and perhaps see similarities with her own experiences.

However Venus Williams is here to win the title over the next two weeks and the veteran should be able to record a comfortable enough win on the day. The future for Cori Gauff will still be very bright regardless as she joins a number of teenagers that look to be the future of women's tennis.


Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: A strong run to the Eastbourne Quarter Final will have given Alize Cornet a shot of confidence going into Wimbledon, but she is still yet to show any real consistency on the grass courts. Her First Round draw is far from easy too as she faces former World Number 1 Victoria Azarenka who is also searching for consistency on the Tour, but who has dominated the Frenchwoman when they have met.

The last of those matches was back in 2016 so it is largely irrelevant, although I do think Alize Cornet can be susceptible to feeling things mentally and emotionally and that record won't be far from her mind.

I have to respect some of the performances Cornet has put together on the grass courts over the last month, and her numbers have backed that up, but the relatively small sample of matches can't always be taken at face value. In recent years Cornet has not been nearly as successful as she has over the last couple of weeks and I do think this is a difficult match up for her if Azarenka is anything near her best.

You can't really count on that as you once could when Victoria Azarenka would go into Slams amongst the favourites to win the title. Her sole grass court match in 2019 resulted in a defeat to Caroline Garcia, the Nottingham Champion, while Azarenka will also expect to show better on her return if she is really going to start moving up the World Rankings again.

I would expect the Victoria Azarenka first serve to be the more effective shot on the day and that should give her the platform to win this match. She should also have the slight edge when it comes to the second serve, but I will say it can be difficult to back Azarenka on her current form.

The key factor will be how Cornet copes if things start going against her- she is a player that can just crumble all around when things go wrong and that could see Azarenka pull away for a good looking win. It is enough coupled with their recent history on the grass to want to back Azarenka here and I will look for her to cover the number on the handicap.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrea Arnaboldi-Ivo Karlovic Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Polona Hercog - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 89.11 Units (1144 Units Staked, + 7.79% Yield)