Thursday proved to be a really frustrating day and I am looking to bounce back before we get into the second week of the French Open.
On Day 6 the Third Round begins and the tournament is beginning to take shape with the big names battling through to this stage of the Grand Slam. From here on out those players are looking to begin to peak in time for the Finals to be played next week.
Below you can see my Picks from the Third Round matches to be played on Friday and I have also updated the record from the French Open below the 'MY PICKS' section of this thread.
On Day 6 the Third Round begins and the tournament is beginning to take shape with the big names battling through to this stage of the Grand Slam. From here on out those players are looking to begin to peak in time for the Finals to be played next week.
Below you can see my Picks from the Third Round matches to be played on Friday and I have also updated the record from the French Open below the 'MY PICKS' section of this thread.
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v David Goffin: It is not surprise that Rafael Nadal is being asked to cover some huge numbers in the early Rounds at Roland Garros where he has been a dominant force for the last fifteen years. Playing back to back Qualifiers meant the layers were taking no chances in opposing the Spaniard, but Nadal has been very strong so far with two very comfortable wins put on the board.
The Third Round figures to be a lot tougher for Nadal as he gets set to take on David Goffin who has long been very comfortable on the clay courts. However it has been a difficult 2019 for the Belgian and even his two wins in Paris won't exactly have prepared him for the task of knocking off Nadal on a court where he has had so much success in the past.
To be fair to Goffin, he has been almost as dominant as Nadal in getting through his first two matches in Paris. Like Nadal, Goffin has dropped just 13 games in the first couple of Rounds and he can't be any fresher or more full of belief before taking to the court. However things can change very quickly on the court and the match up with Nadal is not one that Goffin has enjoyed too much in the past.
It is going to be the fourth time these two have met on a clay court and Nadal has won the first three of those by comfortable margins. In those three previous matches, the Spaniard has managed to hold 92% of the service games played compared with Goffin who has done the same in just over 50% of his own service games played. There is little doubt that Nadal is going to be able to exert a lot of pressure on him again when you think Goffin was holding just 68% of the service games he played on the clay courts before facing two overmatched opponents here in Paris.
In the last couple of seasons Nadal has really earned his moniker of being the King of Clay with numbers that are eye popping. In 2019 it has been more difficult for Nadal, but he is still producing some hugely impressive numbers and I think he is going to wear down and break down Goffin in this one too.
Without a doubt this is a huge number of games for Nadal to cover, but I think he will win at least one set by a 6-1 or 6-2 margin which can make a significant dent into the handicap. The past performances against Goffin in mind and the struggles the Belgian has had in holding serve in 2019 on the clay courts suggest Nadal can perhaps even win two sets by a wide margin and that should give him every chance of covering this spread.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Laslo Djere: Being Seeded at a Grand Slam is a huge bonus, especially for those Ranked between 17-32 at the tournaments. It means avoiding the big names for at least the first couple of Rounds and Laslo Djere has taken advantage of sneaking into a Seeded position in Paris. He has produced two solid wins to reach the Third Round and add some vital Ranking points to his record, but now the Serbian faces one of the top 10 Ranked players in the draw.
He should still be confident considering the kind of tennis he has been able to play on the clay in 2019, but Djere will also respect the fact that Kei Nishikori has been amongst the second tier of clay courters for some time. There have been times when Nishikori has been able to push the very best on the surface, but for the most part he is in the tier behind the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Confidence should not be an issue for Nishikori who came from a set down to beat home favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Second Round having also beaten another Frenchman in the First Round. At least this time Nishikori will be expecting the crowd to be less vocal behind his opponent, but it has not stopped the Japanese star playing some of his best tennis here in Paris this past week.
One of the criticisms Nishikori has to take in 2019 is the relatively underwhelming performances he has produced. There have been times that he has not been as dominant against the players Ranked lower down as he would have liked and I do think Djere will have his chances if Nishikori produces a lacklustre effort in this one.
For the year Djere has been very good on the clay courts, although he had not enjoyed a great two months prior to arriving in Paris where he has yet to drop a single set through the first two Rounds. When the step up has come to face players Ranked in the top 50 of the World Rankings it has been a tougher day for Djere and I do think Nishikori is the kind of player who can wear you down even if he is perhaps not going to win this one in straight sets.
Kei Nishikori is one of the best returners out there and I think that is going to be a factor the longer this match goes on. He has broken in 28% of return games played on the clay courts when facing players Ranked outside the top 20 and this week he has been seeing the ball pretty big on the return. It might not be a big surprise if Laslo Djere is able to win a set, but I think Nishikori will still have every chance of covering this number.
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: At every Grand Slam there is always one or two names that reach the second week that would not have been expected to be there at the beginning of the tournament. This is a big chance to also add some vital Ranking points that will sit on the record for the next twelve months and allow players to earn entry into big tournaments over the next several weeks.
Both Juan Ignacio Londero and Corentin Moutet have to be really believing this is a match they can win to move through to the Fourth Round of the French Open. You can't blame either for feeling that way considering the opponent in front of them and both have earned at least one upset to make their way through this open portion of the draw.
It might not be the greatest reward for the winner to know they are likely going to have to face Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round on Sunday, but Londero and Moutet can't look past each other.
I really do have to give the edge to Londero who has had a breakthrough year on the Tour and who looks to be playing the superior clay court tennis. In this tournament his serve has been a huge weapon for him in his wins over Nikoloz Basilashvili and Richard Gasquet and I do think there is more improvement needed by Moutet if he is going to edge him out of this Third Round match.
While Londero has kept the pressure on opponents, Moutet has needed to be very strong on the return of serve to keep his last two opponents at bay. He has managed that very effectively which makes him dangerous, and Moutet does have a strong record on the clay in 2019 where he has broken in 39% of return games played.
That number has slipped to 18% when you put together his career record on the clay courts at main ATP level, but this year he is at 26% in his two matches at this level prior to the French Open. With that in mind I am not sure he is going to slip off the performance level, but Moutet is going to be dealing with someone who has looked after his serve very well and especially here in Paris.
Juan Ignacio Londero has also been breaking plenty and I think he may have the edge in this match. If he continues to serve as he has, I would expect Londero to come through in three or four tough sets and I will back him to do that.
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Earlier in the French Open I backed against Carla Suarez Navarro, but she barely came through a difficult two sets with Dayana Yestremska before winning in three sets. The Spanish veteran needed three sets to see off Shelby Rogers in the Second Round too and I do think she is going to have to raise her level another notch if she is going to make the second week in Paris.
In the Third Round Suarez Navarro takes on Marketa Vondrousova who has made comfortable progress through the draw. The Czech player is yet to drop a set and she dominated Anastasia Potapova in the Second Round after going down 4-1 in the first set to then win eleven games in a row to move past her young opponent.
There was enough to like about Vondrousova's performances in the build up to the French Open to believe she could have a real impact in the tournament. The losses suffered to Johanna Konta and Petra Martic on the clay courts don't look at all bad when you think of how both of those players have been performing and I do think Vondrousova is playing at a level that can make things very difficult on Suarez Navarro.
I have to respect the fact that Suarez Navarro has gotten the better of me once this week, but her numbers on the clay courts have been average and far below what Vondrousova has been able to produce. This is a player who can get on a roll though which makes this spread a dangerous one, but Suarez Navarro is going to be put under pressure from the Vondrousova return and she is going to have to really get her teeth into the Vondrousova service games to stay with her.
That won't be easy for a player who is winning 43% of return points compared with Vondrousova's 48% on the clay courts in the build up to this tournament. Even in the first two Rounds Suarez Navarro has just about edged through as she has been put under pressure and at some point I would expect her to crack.
I would be hoping Vondrousova makes a better start to this match than she did in the Second Round as that would be a long way back against someone who can be strong when getting in front. If she can ride out those moments, I would expect Marketa Vondrousova to win this one most likely in straight sets and with a break of serve more than Suarez Navarro in each of those sets.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Viktoria Kuzmova: Playing at Roland Garros has been a tough task for Johanna Konta in the past, but she has finally won a match at the French Open. After a strong clay court season, Konta has not only won one match, but followed up with a second to move through to the Third Round.
Now she will be chasing a spot in the second week of the second Grand Slam of the season, although the feeling for Konta will be that there is room for improvement on the first couple of performances here. She reached the Final in Rome to show she can compete on the courts in Paris where the conditions are somewhat similar, and there may also be the benefit of playing on a slightly quicker court on Friday when Konta is scheduled to be on the new Simone-Mathieu court.
The suggestion from players is that the court is playing a little faster than the other courts at Roland Garros, but it may also be a benefit for Viktoria Kuzmova who has had a solid clay court campaign compared to previous seasons. She is still not raising too many trees with the level produced in 2019, but Kuzmova has played better than previous years on this surface and should be well rested for this match.
In reality the expectation would have been that Kiki Bertens was in the Third Round to face Konta, but she had to retire through an illness after just four games were played in the Second Round against Kuzmova. The Slovakian came through a First Round against another injury hit player in Alize Cornet, although Kuzmova had to win that match in straight sets.
Those two results don't really change the perception of how well Kuzmova can perform on the clay courts, although I do think she can cause problems for Konta if the latter is not at her best. Their overall numbers on the clay courts look pretty similar, but Kuzmova's level have declined when she has faced players Ranked in the top 50 and I think that is an issue for her to resolve.
In those matches Kuzmova has won 41% of return points and I do think Konta can serve well enough to keep her at bay. There are times when Konta can lose her concentration or perhaps get a little nervy in matches which is a concern, but I think she is the superior player in this one and has played well enough in Paris to think she can win and cover the number.
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Earlier in the French Open I backed against Carla Suarez Navarro, but she barely came through a difficult two sets with Dayana Yestremska before winning in three sets. The Spanish veteran needed three sets to see off Shelby Rogers in the Second Round too and I do think she is going to have to raise her level another notch if she is going to make the second week in Paris.
In the Third Round Suarez Navarro takes on Marketa Vondrousova who has made comfortable progress through the draw. The Czech player is yet to drop a set and she dominated Anastasia Potapova in the Second Round after going down 4-1 in the first set to then win eleven games in a row to move past her young opponent.
There was enough to like about Vondrousova's performances in the build up to the French Open to believe she could have a real impact in the tournament. The losses suffered to Johanna Konta and Petra Martic on the clay courts don't look at all bad when you think of how both of those players have been performing and I do think Vondrousova is playing at a level that can make things very difficult on Suarez Navarro.
I have to respect the fact that Suarez Navarro has gotten the better of me once this week, but her numbers on the clay courts have been average and far below what Vondrousova has been able to produce. This is a player who can get on a roll though which makes this spread a dangerous one, but Suarez Navarro is going to be put under pressure from the Vondrousova return and she is going to have to really get her teeth into the Vondrousova service games to stay with her.
That won't be easy for a player who is winning 43% of return points compared with Vondrousova's 48% on the clay courts in the build up to this tournament. Even in the first two Rounds Suarez Navarro has just about edged through as she has been put under pressure and at some point I would expect her to crack.
I would be hoping Vondrousova makes a better start to this match than she did in the Second Round as that would be a long way back against someone who can be strong when getting in front. If she can ride out those moments, I would expect Marketa Vondrousova to win this one most likely in straight sets and with a break of serve more than Suarez Navarro in each of those sets.
Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Viktoria Kuzmova: Playing at Roland Garros has been a tough task for Johanna Konta in the past, but she has finally won a match at the French Open. After a strong clay court season, Konta has not only won one match, but followed up with a second to move through to the Third Round.
Now she will be chasing a spot in the second week of the second Grand Slam of the season, although the feeling for Konta will be that there is room for improvement on the first couple of performances here. She reached the Final in Rome to show she can compete on the courts in Paris where the conditions are somewhat similar, and there may also be the benefit of playing on a slightly quicker court on Friday when Konta is scheduled to be on the new Simone-Mathieu court.
The suggestion from players is that the court is playing a little faster than the other courts at Roland Garros, but it may also be a benefit for Viktoria Kuzmova who has had a solid clay court campaign compared to previous seasons. She is still not raising too many trees with the level produced in 2019, but Kuzmova has played better than previous years on this surface and should be well rested for this match.
In reality the expectation would have been that Kiki Bertens was in the Third Round to face Konta, but she had to retire through an illness after just four games were played in the Second Round against Kuzmova. The Slovakian came through a First Round against another injury hit player in Alize Cornet, although Kuzmova had to win that match in straight sets.
Those two results don't really change the perception of how well Kuzmova can perform on the clay courts, although I do think she can cause problems for Konta if the latter is not at her best. Their overall numbers on the clay courts look pretty similar, but Kuzmova's level have declined when she has faced players Ranked in the top 50 and I think that is an issue for her to resolve.
In those matches Kuzmova has won 41% of return points and I do think Konta can serve well enough to keep her at bay. There are times when Konta can lose her concentration or perhaps get a little nervy in matches which is a concern, but I think she is the superior player in this one and has played well enough in Paris to think she can win and cover the number.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Sets @
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 35-30, + 2.90 Units (130 Units Staked, + 2.23% Yield)
Marketa Vondrousova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 35-30, + 2.90 Units (130 Units Staked, + 2.23% Yield)
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