Eight of the ten picks that were selected on Sunday came back as winners to get the French Open Tennis Picks going in the way I would have wanted. I have a feeling that Monday could be the busiest day of the tournament for my selections though as fourteen more First Round matches have hit the criteria that has proven to be successful so far in 2019 following on from a positive 2018.
On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches will be played, although the weather expected to be in the Paris area may have been a reason there are so many scheduled to be played on Monday. I have already managed to run through the remainder of the First Round so the selections for Tuesday should be ready to be posted earlier than this one for the Day 2 Picks.
The opening day of the French Open saw the majority of the expected names moving through the draw, but the Women's Tournament lost Angelique Kerber. While it was an upset, I was not expecting a deep run from Kerber who will be looking forward to having a couple more weeks to recover from injuries that have been affecting her before the grass court season gets underway.
A number of players will be out there on Monday looking to avoid the early exit like Kerber suffered and I am also hoping to avoid the pitfalls of giving back too much after a strong opening to the tournament. Since my research of the First Round was completed there have been one or two matches that have fallen off my shortlist as the spreads have moved to numbers that I am not comfortable with, but there are plenty that remain of interest which you can see below.
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 sets v Juan Ignacio Londero: This First Round match opens up Court 9 on Monday and Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favourite to see off Juan Ignacio Londero. The overall numbers suggest that should not be the case, but Basilashvili has been in the superior form over the last two months and I think that is going to make the difference in his favour here.
Over that time Basilasvili has reached the Quarter Final of one tournament on the clay courts and last week was a Semi Finalist in Lyon. The Georgian will feel he could have got the better of Felix Auger Aliassime in the Semi Final, but he failed to come through a second set tie-breaker although the two wins on the way to the final four will have just helped with the confidence.
Basilashvili has been holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts and he has broken in 22% of return games played on the surface. Those numbers have proven to be very similar to 2018 and this is a player who has found himself capable of winning matches on the clay courts without necessarily dominating opponents.
However I do think Basilashvili will have enough of an edge to get the better of Juan Ignacio Londero who performed admirably during the South American Golden Swing earlier this season. Those performances saw him reach a career best World Ranking in early March, but Londero has not been able to bring his form to the European clay courts over the last couple of months.
The service numbers have just slipped a little bit in the last two months compared to earlier this season, but the bigger concern has to be the returning numbers. During that time Londero has only broken in 16% of return games and that is putting more pressure on him to hold his own serve even though he has a decent 77% hold percentage since the move to the European clay courts.
I would not be massively surprised if Londero was to take a set in this one, but Basilashvili has been playing the better tennis. The Argentinian is just 1-4 against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts since April and his numbers have taken a big decline in that time. With that in mind I am expecting Nikoloz Basilashvili to win this one in three or four sets as he makes his way through to the Second Round.
Borna Coric - 6.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: One of the players that could be a dark horse in the men's draw at the French Open is Borna Coric and he gets to open his campaign on Monday. The draw has paired him with Aljaz Bedene and Coric will have to be careful with this match up and make sure he is close to his best to make his way through to the Second Round.
In recent years Bedene has been someone who is capable of playing some of his better tennis on the clay courts, but 2019 has proven to be a difficult time for him. He didn't play badly during the South American Golden Swing, but the last couple of months have been more difficult for a player who is not Ranked high enough to be given a spot in either of the Masters events that were played on the clay courts of Madrid and Rome.
Aljaz Bedene remains someone who can cause problems with his return of serve, but he is just 1-3 on the clay courts since early April. The main point of concern for Bedene has to be the serve having held just 65% of the service games played on the clay courts since April compared with a 75% mark during the South American portion of the Tour.
That decline in numbers has been hard to make up by the fact that Bedene is breaking in 24% of return games since April compared with the 33% number he had produced earlier in the year. Now Bedene has to play against Borna Coric who looks to be playing at a significantly higher level and pushed some quality players like Fabio Fognini and Roger Federer.
Coric did lose both of those matches, but he could have easily got the better of them with a little more luck at key times. His 82% service hold number on the clay courts look like it will give him a serious edge in this match, while the Croatian is breaking in 24% of the return games played.
This match certainly feels like one in which Coric can earn a couple of breaks of serve within a set on at least one and perhaps two different times in this match. It should give Coric a chance of being in a position to cover this handicap mark during the course of this best of five set match, although Bedene will have his moments and will need to be respected.
Astra Sharma - 2.5 games v Shelby Rogers: One of the improving players on the Tour looks to take another step in her career when Astra Sharma looks for her second Grand Slam win. Back in January Sharma reached the Second Round of the Australian Open in her home Grand Slam and the run to the Final in the Mixed Doubles will have given her some confidence.
Even coming up short in that Final has not been a setback for Sharma who has moved inside the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of April. A good run at the French Open will give Sharma a chance to enter the upcoming Grand Slams without having to be forced into the Qualifiers and the performances on the clay courts suggest she can get the better of Shelby Rogers who is on the road back from a long-term injury.
Astra Sharma reached the Final of the tournament in Bogota and she has won plenty of matches on the clay courts in 2019. It can't be ignored that Sharma has mainly taken advantage of kind draws to produce the wins she has and there is room for improvement, but the draw here at the French Open has not been a bad one to open up for the Aussie either.
As I have mentioned, Shelby Rogers is recovering from a long-term injury and that has seen her just struggle for consistency within matches. You have to respect the fact that Rogers has pushed Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open Champion, and Caroline Garcia on the clay courts over the last two months, but there is also a defeat to Sharma on this surface that should give the favourite an edge.
On that day in Bogota, Sharma was much more comfortable behind her serve and that could be the case again with the likelihood of the conditions allowing the higher Ranked player to get enough balls in play to frustrate Rogers. The latter did take a set off of Sharma in her defeat in April, but she has not really played at the kind of level to think this one is going to be much different.
In this First Round match the player who can have the most success in winning points behind the second serve is going to have the edge to go through. So far on the clay courts it has felt like Sharma is playing well enough to edge out Rogers and the win over her should aid her mentally as she moves through to the Second Round with a cover of the spread.
Danielle Collins - 4.5 games v Tatjana Maria: I am not sure the French Open crowd are really going to get behind Danielle Collins who can be an abrasive personality on a tennis court. That could be an issue for someone who wears their heart on their sleeve and who wants to challenge opponents, but I am not anticipating Collins to have too many concerns on the court in this First Round match.
Some may not like the way Collins carries herself and the kind of confidence she has in herself, but I am a fan. A strong run at the Australian Open announced Collins to a lot of tennis fans out there, but it does feel like the clay courts are going to be the weakest surface for her.
The results have borne that out somewhat and she has had to deal with a couple of really disappointing results on the surface. However recent losses to Ashleigh Barty and Garbine Muguruza could have gone Collins way with a little more luck at critical times and I do think this is a player in superior form to her opponent Tatjana Maria.
The German has had a couple of tough years on the clay courts and Maria's struggles on the second serve as well as the return of serve have really let her down. Those declining numbers are a factor in Maria producing a 1-5 run on the clay courts heading into the French Open and the real disappointment will be that four of those five defeats have come to players Ranked 61 or lower.
It is Collins who has the superior serving numbers and she has also shown a stronger ability on the return of serve while also playing higher Ranked opponents than what Maria has tended to deal with. The spread is still one you have to respect as it could need as many as three or four breaks of serve for Collins to cover it, but I think it is possible.
The American has been winning at least 45% of return points played on the clay courts despite her 5-4 record and she should have some real joy against the Maria serve. When these players met in Sydney on the hard courts earlier this season Collins earned eight break points in a straight sets win and I think she will be able to create a similar number here which should give her every chance of covering the handicap.
Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: In the last couple of weeks Dayana Yastremska has just turned 19 years old, but she has long been touted as one of the players that could be a leading light on the WTA Tour. After winning the title in Strasbourg last week, the Ukrainian will be heading into the French Open hoping to match the run to the Third Round she put together at the Australian Open.
Before winning five matches to take the title home in Strasbourg, Yastremska had lost all three matches played on the clay courts. While on most occasions that would put me off in selecting her as a short favourite, Yastremska was very competitive in defeats to Kristina Mladenovic, Karolina Pliskova and First Round opponent Carla Suarez Navarro.
When these two players met in Rome, Yastremska came up short against Suarez Navarro despite winning more points in the match. There was very little between them and the run of wins put together by the younger player could easily see things switched around.
Carla Suarez Navarro is going to be dangerous having always been a solid clay court performer, but there are signs of decline that can't be ignored. She is still very capable of putting a strong performance together, but Suarez Navarro is not returning as well as she once did on the surface.
That could be a problem against a talented performer like Yastremska who has won 44% of return points against Suarez Navarro in both of their meetings in 2019. The match at the Australian Open was won by Yastremska and in both matches played between these two opponents the young Ukrainian has won at least one set with a 6-1 scoreline.
Playing the week before a Slam can be tough work for players, especially if they win the title as Yastremska did. She has had a day to rest between travelling from Strasbourg to Paris, and I think at the age she is I would expect Yastremska to have recovered about as well as you can.
Momentum could be important after putting the run together in Strasbourg and I will look for Yastremska to beat the veteran Spaniard and cover this number of games.
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: I am backing one 19 year old to have a successful First Round match and I am also prepared to back an 18 year old who is soon turning 19 herself. Bianca Andreescu has already raised her profile on the Tour by winning a Premier Event in Indian Wells this season as she has moved up to Number 22 in the World Rankings.
That Ranking may have been even more impressive if not for an injury suffered in Miami which has basically kept Andreescu out of the clay court season. The Canadian has made it clear she is ready to compete having decided to practice at Rafael Nadal's Academy in Mallorca rather than take in a tournament while recovering.
It does raise some questions as to how Andreescu will be feeling going into her first competitive match on the clay courts. Last season she failed to actually Qualify for the French Open having been beaten in the Third Qualifying Round, but I think the confidence earned earlier this season will see Andreescu produce some of her better tennis.
She has a chance to get her teeth into the tournament when taking on a Lucky Loser in the First Round. Maria Bouzkova has played three matches in Paris which may aid her, but the Czech player has not really produced a lot of top performances on this surface in the last couple of years.
Back in January Andreescu destroyed Bouzkova on a hard court in a match where she dropped just three games. The lack of tennis is a concern when backing Andreescu here, but she is someone who should be able to have enough success on the return to break down the Bouzkova game.
It should be enough for Andreescu to find a way to win this match and cover the handicap as she begins to turn the screw in the second set once the initial match rustiness wears off.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Vitalia Diatchenko: This is a quick hit to explain why I am backing Serena Williams despite the photos that surfaced of her time at Disneyland Paris earlier this week.
On that day the American was pictured in a wheelchair, but it sounds like it was more of a precaution rather than anything much more serious than that. There is no doubt that Williams is suffering with a leg injury considering how many tournaments she had to pull out from in 2019, but she looked ok hitting the ball in practice in the last couple of days.
If Serena Williams takes to the court I think she will be ready to go and she did beat Rebecca Peterson by enough games to cover this spread in her only clay court match so far in 2019. Now she plays Vitalia Diatchenko who has not been performing that well on the surface and whose last three French Open's have seen her crushed without winning more than five games in any of the matches in which she was defeated.
When fit Serena Williams is still very difficult to beat and I think she will be able to pull away in this First Round match as she looks to move through to the Second Round as quickly as possible.
MY PICKS: Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astra Sharma - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Corentin Moutet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennys Sandgren + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
French Open Update: 8-2, + 10.12 Units (20 Units Staked, + 50.60% Yield)
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