The first three days at the French Open have been a mixed bag for the Tennis Picks, but at least there has been a winning start made to the tournament.
I've had a couple of below par days though and I am looking for much better as we move into the Second Round of the event. A couple of the selections have been poorly made if I am being honest with myself, but a positive return is still something to be pleased with after the First Round was completed.
You can read my Picks from Day 4 below and I have also updated the French Open totals.
Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Oscar Otte: In most Grand Slam events players would expect the challenges to only get tougher in each passing Round of those tournaments. On this occasion Roger Federer looks to be facing an opponent that is not quite as good as the one he beat in the First Round and I think that will also lead to the former World Number 1 covering what has to be seen as a very big number regardless of level of opponent.
Gone are the days when Federer would blitz through those standing on the other side of the net and the decline in the returning numbers mean he is a player that I don't want to be backing on a 4.5 spread line in a best of three set match. However those numbers are also evident on faster surfaces than the clay courts we see in Paris and I do think that is a factor that can't be ignored, especially when you think of how well Federer played in the First Round win over Lorenzo Sonego.
Roger Federer managed five breaks of serve and won 45% of the return points against an opponent who serve had been very effective on the clay courts in the lead up to this event. Lorenzo Sonego has also been playing at a higher level than Lucky Loser Oscar Otte whose main experiences have been on the Challenger circuit save for a fairly straight-forward defeat in the French Open in 2018.
The German has made full use of his reprieve to get into the main draw as he saw off Malek Jaziri in the First Round, but suffice to say this is the toughest match Otte will have played in his career. In the last couple of years Otte hasn't exactly prospered on the clay courts at the lower level and I do think it is going to be very difficult for him in this match if Federer is even 85% focused on the task at hand.
Oscar Otte has held 75% of the service games played on the clay courts in 2019 and broken in 25% of the return games played. He did dominate the Jaziri serve in the First Round, but Roger Federer faced just four break points in the First Round and has a very strong hold number on the clay courts in the lead up to Paris and he should be too good all around.
This is a massive experience for Otte to be able to face Roger Federer in a Grand Slam, but the 25 year old will have to play the match of his life to even make this competitive. It would be a monumental upset if Federer is not able to make it through in straight sets and I think he will find the breaks of serve he needs to produce a wide victory in this Second Round match.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 sets v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: One of the upsets in the French Open First Round came from Pierre-Hugues Herbert as he recovered from 0-2 down to beat the talented Russian Daniil Medvedev. There were some physical issues for Medvedev to deal with in that defeat, but it is no real excuse for him and Herbert will be looking forward to playing in front of the home fans again.
He may not receive quite the same level of support as he did in the First Round as he faces popular compatriot Benoit Paire who was a strong winner to move into this Second Round match. Some of the Champions from the final build up tournaments to the French Open have struggled since making it to Paris, but Paire has followed up his title win in Lyon with a strong four set win and his confidence has to be about as high as it ever has been on a clay court.
If Paire is honest, I think he would be the first to tell you that he has largely disappointed in previous French Open appearances. However this year he has been playing well on the clay courts and he looks like someone who is seeing the ball pretty big with a 31% break number from return games played on the surface.
There is no doubt he will need to see the ball well if he is going to beat Herbert. The serve is a big weapon for Herbert on any surface, but he has been effective on the clay courts too with an 82% hold number on this surface in 2019. In the last Round Herbert did have his issues against the strong Medvedev return though and I do think Paire is capable of exerting some pressure of his own.
The Benoit Paire serve can be erratic as someone who is perhaps not always making the right decision from a shot selection point of view. It should give Herbert a chance to get his teeth into the match, but the fatigue from the last Round is a worry as is the heavy defeat he suffered to Paire in Marrakech back in April.
On that occasion Paire was able to break in 34% of return games played and didn't lose serve once and it does give the higher Ranked Frenchman the edge in this one. Pierre-Hugues Herbert did lose three of four clay court matches before coming back from 0-2 down to knock off Medvedev and I think it is going to be difficult for him to pick himself up emotionally as I look for Paire to come through in three or four sets.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: There was literally no real form from Pablo Carreno Busta going into the First Round of the French Open having lost all four clay court matches played over the last two months. He looked a very vulnerable player especially after a draw that saw pitted with Joao Sousa, but the Spaniard dominated the match and made a mockery of the odds.
I have to admit I was very surprised he was not only able to win, but to win in such a dominant fashion. Injuries have contributed to Carreno Busta dropping down to World Number 57, but the lack of form and the 8% break number was not exactly pointing to him producing a win in which he broke the Sousa serve six times, won 50% of the return points played and faced just two break points throughout the match.
Pablo Carreno Busta is a much stronger favourite in the Second Round when he faces Alex De Minaur who had also lost all of the clay court matches he had played in preparation for the French Open. The Australian is likely to be much more productive when the Tour moves onto the grass and the hard courts following the end of the tournament, but De Minaur was also a strong winner in the First Round.
His win was less impressive than Carreno Busta's because of the level of opponent he was facing and De Minaur is going to need to be a lot better if he is able to win a match like this one. It is a big ask of a player who had been 1-8 in main ATP matches on clay before his win over Bradley Klahn in the First Round here and the De Minaur numbers are pretty poor both on the serve and the return.
The Aussie is only holding 61% of service games played on the clay courts in 2019 before the First Round win here. Alex De Minaur was not broken in the mach against Bradley Klahn, but I would expect Carreno Busta to exert a lot more pressure on the serve if he is anywhere near the level he produced in the last Round. And that also puts pressure on De Minaur to at least respond by chasing breaks of serve back if he is struggling to hold, but he has only broken in 17% of return games on the clay in 2019 and is at 19% for his career in main ATP Tour matches prior to the French Open.
The long-term injury issues have to be a concern, but I also think it will keep Carreno Busta focused and he won't want to extend his time on the court. If the Spaniard was fully fit I would have expected him to be much, much shorter in the market so injury concerns have been factored in and I think Carreno Busta can get into a position to move through in three or four sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Hugo Dellien: If you take away the top two players in the world and asked people to pick a favourite to win the men's Singles title in Paris over the next couple of weeks, I would imagine Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be a popular name.
He already owns a win over Rafael Nadal on the clay courts in 2019 and Tsitsipas also made a big impact at the Australian Open when reaching the Semi Final back in January. The Greek youngster looks like he can play some of his better tennis on the clay courts too and I do think he is going to be a factor in the second week of this tournament.
Stefanos Tsitsipas comes into this Second Round match as a big favourite when he faces Bolivian Hugo Dellien. Both players made comfortable progress through the First Round without dropping a set, but Tsitsipas is playing at a different level than Dellien and I am not expecting the latter to be able to stick with him in this match.
Hugo Dellien did push Alexander Zverev to three sets in Geneva last week, but overall he has not really been able to push on when playing in main ATP Tour matches. Overall Dellien is someone who can play well on the clay courts, but his hold number slips to 70% when serving on the main ATP level and his percentage of breaks drops down to 26% in those matches too.
The return could cause one or two problems for some opponents, but Dellien isn't playing just anyone. Now he has to deal with Tsitsipas who has held 80% of service games played on the clay courts in 2019 and someone who has been very strong when facing players outside of the top 10 on the surface.
In those matches Tsitsipas has broken in 33% of the return games he has played on the clay courts and four more breaks of serve were added in the First Round win over Maximilian Marterer. I do think there is room for improvement for Tsitsipas on the return if he is going to step forward and start winning Grand Slam tournaments, but he is definitely on the up.
There is enough to like from his return to believe Tsitsipas can keep Dellien under pressure and begin to wear him down after coming through a couple of battling sets. This is a big number, but Tsitsipas has every chance of earning a 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 kind of win and I think he is capable of doing that against a player lower down the World Rankings where the Greek player has been particularly dominant.
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: One name who is going to be a popular dark horse in the women's tournament is Marketa Vondrousova after some very strong performances on the clay courts in 2019. This surface is her favourite domain and Vondrousova is a big favourite to see off Anastasia Potapova who stunned Angelique Kerber in the First Round on Sunday.
Despite the injury concerns going into the tournament, Kerber had been a big favourite to beat Potapova who has not really been as effective on the clay courts as she would have liked.
The Russian was 2-4 on the clay courts before her win in the First Round here and Potapova had not exactly been given the toughest of draws in those losses which is a concern for her. I still think there should be some respect for Potapova who has raised her game when she has faced the better names from the Tour and that is underlined by a win over Anastasija Sevastova on the clay to go along with the win over Kerber.
She will need to pick up her level again when she faces Vondrousova who has improved to 10-2 on the clay in 2019. Losses to Petra Martic and Johanna Konta can be forgiven considering the type of form those two players have produced on the clay this season, but Potapova is not playing up to that standard and I do think Vondrousova can do enough to edge her out in both sets of a straight sets victory.
It will be the stronger returning being produced by Vondrousova that can provide the difference in this match. Her opponent has to deal with the emotions of the upset in the First Round and hope to keep her level high enough to stay with Vondrousova and that is always difficult for players that have not been used to winning the kind of match Potapova did.
Marketa Vondrousova is also just getting a little more out of the first serve than Anastasia Potapova and crushed her on the hard courts of Budapest earlier this season. On her favourite surface I am looking for the Czech player to get the better of Potapova and cover this line too.
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: It is great to see Belinda Bencic playing some of her best tennis again, but she can't afford to allow her standards to slip when she faces Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.
In past years Siegemund has tended to reserve her best tennis for the clay courts, but the German has struggled on her return from injury. These days Siegemund is barely inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and she has struggled to put the wins together even on her favourite surface.
Laura Siegemund has not been past the Second Round of any tournament on the main Tour played on the clay in 2019 and she has had a tough time dealing with players Ranked in the top 100. In those matches the serve has been a vulnerable shot for Siegemund and means she is under pressure to respond with the return having won 43% of the points against the serve.
Now she has to face a Belinda Bencic who could start making a fast move up the World Rankings from her current spot of Number 15. Any further advance in the French Open draw will mean improving her points and Bencic doesn't have much to defend before Wimbledon.
Belinda Bencic looks to have the far superior serve in this match, although there are times when she can get a little flustered and throw away some of the service games she plays. It has been a particularly strong weapon for the Swiss star when she has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 20.
In those matches we have also seen Bencic win 47% of the return points played and I do think she can find the breaks of serve to win and cover this number. She was dominant in the First Round and Belinda Bencic should be capable of getting past an opponent that can be a tough out on a clay court.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Guido Pella - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Polona Hercog - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
French Open Update: 22-16, + 7.46 Units (76 Units Staked, + 9.82% Yield)
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