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Saturday 11 May 2019

Boxing Picks 2019- Jarrett Hurd vs Julian Williams (May 11th)

Last weekend did not let us down in terms of the quality of the fight between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs and the only regret the latter may have is the very slow start he made in what ultimately was a very close fight.

It might not have had the fireworks that can get some fans off their seat, but the chess match being played by two fighters with plenty of boxing skills can't be ignored. I felt the slow start cost Jacobs with my personal card being 116-112 in favour of Canelo who has now Unified the Middleweight Division with just one more belt to go to become Undisputed.

I am not sure that is the priority for the match makers just yet as the likelihood of seeing the third fight between Gennady Golovkin and Alvarez in September will surely increase if Triple G is able to see off Steve Rolls in early June. I also think there are bigger challenges for Canelo in the Divisions above Middleweight which may appeal, while there was also talk of luring Errol Spence Jr up the Divisions which is perhaps leaving Demetrius Andrade out of the mix for now.

Andrade is back in action in June too and we may yet see the fight with Billy Joe Saunders that should have taken place several months ago. Other options are lacking in truth especially if Canelo goes in another direction and if Danny Jacobs decides he is better of trying his fortunes at Super Middleweight after struggling to boil down to 160 this past weekend.


Last weekend we also see a more impressive performance from Jerwin Ancajas, while Artur Beterbiev looked very strong again. Both will likely be heading to Unification bouts in the near future and much bigger fights than the ones they had to get through.


This week we have two decent looking rematches from fights where the underdog upset the favourite the first time around and the odds have flipped which is not a major surprise.

The most eye-catching fight may be the Light-Middleweight bout between Jarrett Hurd and Julian Williams even if that is not the Unification that most fans would have wanted to see. The upset loss Jermell Charlo suffered put pay to that hope for Hurd, although we could be back on track regardless of who wins the rematch between Charlo and Tony Harrison which is also scheduled for a busy June.


You can read my thoughts on the big three fights of this weekend below and I have updated the season numbers. Last weekend was a positive one for the Boxing Picks, but I need to keep improving to get the year turned back around after a really poor startt.


Emanuel Navarrete vs Isaac Dogboe
The image I am using underlines the size difference between these two Boxers as Isaac Dogboe asked for an immediate rematch against Emanuel Navarrete who took his unbeaten record and Super Bantamweight World Title when these two met last December.

At the time Dogboe went into the fight as a huge favourite to win, but he was not able to get close to the Mexican who controlled things and could have forced a stoppage if he had not hurt his hand through the second half of the fight.

Some might have considered Dogboe was best to rebuild before trying to take on Navarrete again, but he wanted an immediate rematch and has been granted his wish. This time Dogboe will be entering the ring as the slight underdog and I think he is going to have to have made some major adjustments if he is going to turn around the result.

There have been suggestions the training camp has been much better than the first time around, but I have a feeling this is just a bad match up for Dogboe. I thought he was going to have enough to win the first fight, but within a Round or two it was very clear that the size of Navarrete was going to be an issue, especially as he had enough pop to at least buzz his unbeaten opponent.

The hand injury I have mentioned was perhaps a factor in preventing Navarrete from really stepping up the pressure in the second half of the fight and I am going to assume those issues are behind him. It is asking a lot of Dogboe to do much better than the first fight when you think of the match up and I think the only difference this time is that Navarrete may be able to exert enough punishment to force the stoppage.

Both Boxers have spoken about the Knock Out, but I think it will be more repeat than revenge and I am going to have a small interest in Emanuel Navarrete earning a second half stoppage.


Miguel Berchelt vs Francisco Vargas
Back in January 2017 Miguel Berchelt and Francisco Vargas were involved in a brilliant fight which ended in the Eleventh Round as the younger man was able to come through a war.

At the time Vargas was the favourite having been unbeaten and coming in as the Champion, but Berchelt won the fight and now is a strong favourite to do the same in this rematch.

You can't really argue with that as the younger man and Vargas only having a couple of bouts since the first defeat of his career. At 34 years old the feeling is that Vargas has seen his best days and Berchelt has promised to end this fight sooner than the first one.

Miguel Berchelt has been more active and defended the WBC Super Featherweight Title on four occasions since ripping the belt away from Vargas. The last three have all been stopped and I do think Berchelt is still entering his prime while Vargas is perhaps on the slide in the wrong direction.

I do think it is going to be a fun fight to watch with the way Vargas and Berchelt should mesh with one another and I tend to agree with the Champion that this is not going to go as long as the first one. The year off from the ring is not going to be that helpful to Vargas and I think this ends somewhere between the Sixth and Ninth Round.

My feeling is that Vargas will be competitive for a while, but Berchelt will begin to exert his will on the fight. We should hear the bell for the second half of the this Title fight and I think that is when Berchelt will have really taken over the bout and begin to pepper the former Champion into submission, perhaps one or two Rounds earlier than their first fight ended.


Jarrett Hurd vs Julian Williams
Two of the four Light Middleweight World Titles are in the position of Jarrett Hurd who is appearing in 2019 for the first time. He needed a few months to recuperate an injury following the win over Erislandy Lara to Unify the IBF and WBA Titles and Hurd was hoping he would be going into 2019 ready to add Jermell Charlo's strap this collection.

He has last appeared in Los Angeles on the Deontay Wilder-Tyson Fury undercard, but later that month Charlo was beaten by Tony Harrison in an upset and so any Unification had to be put aside for now. Instead Jarrett Hurd gets a homecoming bout, although I don't think anyone will be underestimating Julian Williams.

The Philadelphian is trained by one of the smartest minds in Boxing in Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards and Williams is a pretty good Boxer, which means I do think he will win his Rounds as he did against Jermall Charlo before being stopped in the Fifth Round.

I really like Jarrett Hurd, but I also accept he is someone who needs to warm up to his task whenever he fights. That has seen him come on strong and break the hearts of opponents in the second half and I do think there is going to be a similar feel in this one. I would not be surprised if Williams is ahead on the cards at the halfway mark, but Hurd is going to continue backing him up and that wears opponents down especially when the Champion starts landing plenty of heavy artillery back.

Is Williams a good enough Boxer to stick and move and look to win this one by a Decision? Yeah I do think that is possible, but keeping Hurd off for the full Twelve Rounds is a big ask. Around the halfway mark I do think Hurd will begin to have a lot more success and he is going to grind down yet another opponent having stopped Tony Harrison and Austin Trout in the Championship Rounds and also knocked Lara down in the Twelfth Round which proved to be a pivotal moment of the entire bout.

Some will be looking to compare how Hurd does to the Charlo win over Williams, but he is not someone who relies on the one punch power that helped Jermall win that fight. Instead Hurd looks to bully and wear down opponents and I think this one might be decided at around the Eighth or Ninth Round as the Champion once again powers through the gears to put a hurting on his opponent.

MY PICKS: Emanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Miguel Berchelt to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jarrett Hurd to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2019 Update: 7-18, - 7.20 Units (39 Units Staked, - 18.46% Yield)
Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

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