Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 9th)

The Tennis Picks really came through for me on Wednesday as seven of the nine selections returned as winners which has put the week in Madrid in a very strong position.

We are into the Third Round of the ATP Masters tournament being played here and the Quarter Final of the WTA Premier Event and it is another busy day in Madrid. At least it is not going to be as windy as it was on Wednesday which should mean better tennis can be played by those going onto the court.

One player who won't be there is David Ferrer who was beaten in the Second Round by Alexander Zverev. That result had more implications than seeing the latter moving through to the Third Round as David Ferrer called time on his career, a wonderful career where he has wrung every ounce of potential from his game and gone even further.

Not many would have predicted David Ferrer would be a mainstay of the top 50 of the World Rankings and he was always humble enough to describe himself as the 'worst player to ever make the top 100' of the World Rankings. However hard work and a sheer stubborn determination saw Ferrer reach a Major Final at Roland Garros and he made the Semi Final of all four of the Majors which is a remarkable achievement from someone who was not expected to hit the heights in the spot.

David Ferrer was both unfortunate and fortunate to be in this era alongside Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and I do think he would have been a Major Champion if playing ten to fifteen years earlier. I don't think the Spaniard will regret competing with some of the names that will go down in Tennis history and Ferrer earned the respect of all his peers.

I liked him a lot as a player and he seems like a decent person off the court too. It has been clear for some time that David Ferrer is not the player he was, but he can be proud of his achievements and I hope he enjoys a well deserved retirement.


After a very strong Wednesday the key is to not give anything back to the layers. Adding to the winners and keeping the week's numbers moving in the direction they have been in the last three days is the aim for Thursday and my selections can be seen below from the matches scheduled to be played through another long day in Madrid.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: In recent weeks Stan Wawrinka has been speaking about getting back to his best on the tennis court after injuries have been slowing him down in the last couple of years. The Swiss player is very comfortable on the clay courts, but those injuries meant he had a very difficult time on the surface in 2018.

Those difficulties look to be behind the former French Open Champion who has won a couple of matches here in Madrid to get through to the Third Round. Stan Wawrinka was beaten pretty early on in Monte Carlo, but he was an unfortunate loser to Marco Cecchinato and in general it feels like he is playing closer to the levels he was producing on the clay courts before being bitten by the injury bug.

Make no mistake that this is a real test to see where Wawrinka is with his tennis when he takes on Kei Nishikori who needed to dig deep to come through in straight sets in his opening match here. The Japanese star is a very good clay court player and he has been serving well, but Wawrinka can put some real pressure on him if he continues serving at the level he has been with a 90% hold number on the clay in 2019.

Last year it was the problems on the return of serve that really held Wawrinka back, but he been in pretty good nick in his four clay court matches played so far this time around. While the 29% break number is higher than previous years, it is much more like Wawrinka's performances prior to 2018 on the clay and I do think this is a player on the up.

The head to head has not seen these two players meet too many times on the clay courts- in fact their first match against each was on the clay, but the last nine have been played on other surfaces. Even then you have to respect the fact that Wawrinka has won the last two matches between these players with the most recent being in February 2019 and I do think that will help him to mentally stay checked into this match.

It is a big match for two players who will feel the French Open gives them a chance to go deep in the tournament and so a statement win can only add to the belief they will have in Paris. The current performances of Stan Wawrinka have been slightly higher than Kei Nishikori on the clay courts and coupled with the two wins earned over this opponent over the last nine months I do think Wawrinka is the right player to back.

Both players only have a small sample on the clay courts in 2019, but I think Stan Wawrinka might be the superior player on the surface and can underline that belief by winning this match and covering the number.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: Fans in Rome and Paris have to be looking forward to the next month as they get to see Roger Federer back on the clay courts after a three year absence and those levels of excitement might be going through the roof judging by the reception the superstar had in Madrid. Roger Federer was cheered loudly throughout his win over Richard Gasquet as he played his first clay court match since losing to Nick Kyrgios here in 2016 as he looked to make the best decisions to extend his career.

To be fair to Federer those decisions have worked out as he has won a couple of Majors since then, but he admitted he missed playing on the red dirt. The knee issues which first made him think about giving up the clay portion of the season are behind him now and Federer looked like he had never been away when dismissing Gasquet in the Second Round.

It might have helped facing an opponent who had not played any tennis in a number of months, but that is not going to be the case on Thursday when Federer faces the enigmatic Gael Monfils.

The Frenchman will be looking to earn a measure of revenge for his compatriot and he showed some heart by coming from a set down to beat Marton Fucsovics in the Second Round. It was an impressive win over an ever improving player and Monfils will have been given a real shot of confidence for finding his way after a very poor opening set.

However Monfils has been needing his return of serve to be firing at a very strong level for him to come through his matches and I think that is not going to be easy for him against Federer. Everyone knows how good the Federer serve can be and that is the same case even on the clay, while the conditions in Madrid do tend to favour him even more than those in Rome and Paris.

The return of serve is perhaps in decline which is preventing Federer from being as dominant as he once was, but he should enjoy facing a Monfils serve which is being held at 74% of the time on the clay courts in 2019. That number is from a small sample, but Monfils had the same number in 2018 and I do think Federer is going to have enough chances to win this match and also cover the number.

The last time Federer and Monfils met in a professional match also came on the clay, but it was back in 2015. In their six previous clay matches Federer has held 87% of his service games while Monfils has held 72% of his own. Those numbers are pretty similar to their overall numbers on the surface and I will look for Federer to win and get the better of this spread.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: If you're a fan of tennis you are going to appreciate what you are seeing whenever Simona Halep and Ashleigh Barty meet on the court. Both players may not be the tallest or the strongest on the Tour, but they have plenty of pop off the ground and can play the kind of defence that is going to frustrate the life out of opponents.

Both players are also going to be tough to beat on the clay courts if their current form is anything to go by. Simona Halep might be the best clay courter in the world as far as the WTA side of the Tour goes and the defending French Open Champion is laying down a marker for her rivals with the way she has dismantled the three players she has faced so far in Madrid.

Only Johanna Konta got really close to pushing Halep, but the second set was a breeze for the Romanian who has won four of her six sets so far this week by scores of 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0.

Ashleigh Barty is continuing to push her way up the World Rankings and the top ten Ranked Australian is not going to be offering as little resistance as Halep faced in those sets. She fought back from a set down to win her last match and Barty has not dropped more than two games in any of the six sets she has won in Madrid. The only difference is that Barty has lost two sets on her way through the draw compared with Halep's run of straight sets wins and I do think that there is a clear difference between the abilities of these players on the clay.

Where Barty is a very good clay court player, Halep is exceptional and I think that makes the difference in what should be a fun match. The former World Number 1 is winning 60% of return points so far this week which is 10% higher than what Barty has been able to do and I do think this is a match that will feature a number of breaks of serve with both players having success.

However I do have a little more trust in Simona Halep being able to break in a couple of games more than Barty over the course of this match. In their head to heads it is Halep who leads 2-1 and she has created more break points in all three of those matches. The surface should favour her even more than those three previous hard court matches and Ashleigh Barty is 0-5 when facing top 20 Ranked players on the red dirt.

The Australian has only taken one set in those defeats and I am looking for Halep to produce a big performance to move into yet another Semi Final in Madrid.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 12-4, + 13.40 Units (32 Units Staked, + 41.88% Yield)