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Saturday, 4 May 2019

Boxing Picks 2019- Canelo Alvarez vs Danny Jacobs (May 4th)

The last two years in the Boxing world have been very fun with some big fight nights put together, but so far 2019 has been lacking a little bit. The top three Heavyweights splitting up and doing their own thing has been a real disappointment, while we have yet to get the really big Unification fights in the Light-Heavyweight, Light-Middleweight and Welterweight Divisions that most want to see.

At least the World Boxing Super Series has come through some of its difficulties to make sure their Semi Final and Finals from the three weight Division tournament that began at the end of 2018 are going to be completed. That means some big fights are coming up with multiple titles on the line, but the start of May could also be the beginning of a very strong run over the remainder of 2019.

Saturday's Unification in the Middleweight Division between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs is a definite top fight that could be the best fight of the year so far. It is the main event being shown live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom and I am looking forward to this one.

On the same night Artur Berterbiev is back in action on a separate card which is also being shown live for the UK fans,


It has been a pretty miserable 2019 for my Boxing Picks too and that is the reason I've taken a couple of cards off from making those selections. I've had a slight bit of misfortune with a couple of selections which could have easily gone my way, but that is just the nature of the way things go and I am sure I had my fair share of luck in 2018.

Hopefully I can get back into a positive groove with these picks and the numbers can also begin to reflect in the weeks and months ahead.


Jerwin Ancajas vs Ryuichi Funai
Most fighters will not be questioned about how much is left in the tank at 27 years old, but there are some out there who have had plenty of Rounds on the body and who could be slipping even at this relatively young age.

One of those is Jerwin Ancajas who is a popular Boxer but one who looked short of where he once stood in his last fight. You can't take one fight as the rule for any Boxer, but the Rounds have added up for Ancajas and he owns a World Title in an incredibly competitive Division.

He can keep himself in line for some big fights in the months ahead by holding onto the IBF Title he barely escaped with from his last bout with Santiago Barrios which was ruled a Draw. A lot of observers think Ancajas lost that fight and was very lucky to get away with his Title, but this is a bout which looks to be one that get him back on track for some bigger tests ahead.

Ryuichi Funai is older than Ancajas and has simply not been operating at the same type of level. Being from Japan I would expect Funai to be a tough fighter who won't wilt easily, but three of his seven losses have come by stoppage and I think Ancajas can show off that there is still something left in him by becoming the latest to do that.

It won't be easy and it might take a bit of time to break down Funai who has been stopped in the latter stages of the fights in which he has been broken down. The telling factor will be how much Ancajas has left to give and whether he can show a much improved performance than the one he had against Barrios, but this is a level down from that I believe and I will look for the Filipino to earn the stoppage in the second half of this one.


Artur Berterbiev vs Radivoje Kalajdzic
The main event in California on Saturday 4th May is the return of Artur Berterbiev to defend his Light-Heavyweight Title in what is one of the hottest Divisions in Boxing. If the Russian can get through this test, Berterbiev has some huge Unifications that could be put together in the next few months and I do think he is going to be too strong for Radivoje Kalajdzic.

The Challenger will come in with the standout performance on his resume being a controversial Split Decision loss to Marcus Browne. The latter has gone on to win a World Title which has only increased the impressiveness of Kalajdzic's performance that day, but it was also a little over three years ago and Browne is much improved since then.

It is hard to know what kind of improvements Kalajdzic has made considering his three fights in that time have lasted a combined seven Rounds with his last two being ended in the First Round against overmatched opponents. One of those wins was against an unbeaten Travis Peterkin, but I don't know if Kalajdzic has done enough to think he can get the better of someone as strong as Beterbiev.

Issues outside of the ring have prevented Beterbiev from being a lot more active, but he showed he has lost none of his power in the shoot out with Callum Johnson. That has to be a concern for Kalajdzic who was put down by Marcus Browne in the First Round of the aforementioned bout and I think the Champion is going to get the better of this in a dramatic fight.

The reach and the height are with Kalajdzic, but I have a feeling that is going to be negated pretty early as he looks to fight fire with fire and ultimately that is where the raw strength of Beterbiev should make the difference. It is likely to be a fight that comes out before the Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs bout in Las Vegas so should provide fun fireworks for fans tuning in.

Artur Beterbiev is one of the best in this Division and he can make a statement with a first half stoppage in this one.


Canelo Alvarez vs Danny Jacobs
For most fans the Middleweight fight that most would still want to see the most is Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin trilogy and it is likely that will move a step closer for September if the former is able to get through this one.

He should be taking anything for granted though against Danny Jacobs who is the consensus Number 3 in the Division and who pushed Golovkin all the way two years ago. Many thought he was unfortunate not to be given the Decision that day and it is going to be just as difficult to be able to do that against Canelo in Las Vegas especially if you go by past judging of his fights in this City.

I like Jacobs and I think he has a fantastic story, but he has not looked that brilliant since that performance against Golovkin. Yes he has gone on to win a World Title and has won three fights since then, but Jacobs has been looking a little tired in the latter stages of his win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko which needed a Split Decision despite Jacobs putting him down in the First Round.

I am still not convinced about Jacobs' ability to take big shot or two either and he is going to be tested by Canelo. I am expecting the early Rounds to be competitive with Jacobs having the size advantage and the skill to give Canelo plenty to think about, but I do think Canelo is one of the finer body punchers out there and I am expecting the Mexican to just begin to slow down Jacobs at around the halfway mark.

Let's be honest for a moment, the most sensible selection for this is a Canelo win on points. I can see him beginning to get the better of the exchanges in the second half of the fight and I think Canelo may look the more aggressive of the two fighters on the night which is likely going to swing the judges towards him and that is not even accounting for the likely bias towards Canelo that we have seen in the past.

It would be foolish to ignore that and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Jacobs to win on the cards, but I also think there is a real chance that Canelo can do enough to force a stoppage and end any controversy calls that could come out of this one.

With Danny Jacobs showing some vulnerabilities in his recent wins and his slow down in the second half of the fight with Derevyanchenko, I do think Canelo is going to have some real success. It might be to the point where he is able to unload something unanswered in the second half of the fight once some wear has hit the Jacobs body and I do wonder if we are going to see if making the weight is affecting Jacobs too once those shots begin to land.

I think Canelo will take control of this one in the second half of the fight and like I said I think the most likely outcome is he wins on the cards. However there is that feeling I have that it might not get that far which makes it worth having a small interest on the Mexican finding the stoppage in the second half of this one.

MY PICKS: Jerwin Ancajas to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2019: 5-17, - 11.44 Units (34 Units Staked, - 33.64% Yield)
Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield) 

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