NBA PlayOffs 2019- Second Round Series Games 5-7 (May 7-13)
The first four games of the Second Round Series have been played and it has been a fun Round so far. The First Round Series saw a number of mismatches, but only the Milwaukee Bucks are leading 3-1 in the Second Round after four games and the other three Series are tied at 2-2.
It means we could be getting a couple of big time Game 7s in the next few days as teams chase their spot in the Conference Finals and I am looking forward to how things pan out.
Right now I would favour the Toronto Raptors, Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers to join Milwaukee as the final four teams. The Bucks look to have broken the Boston Celtics with back to back road wins and I think that is one Series that won't be going into a Game 6 like the other three.
After a strong start to the NBA Picks from the Second Round games that have been played, it has been more inconsistent in the last couple of days. I am still holding a positive number for the Round, but I am hoping to start pushing back in the right direction having had a mix of results.
Tuesday 7th May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 5 Pick: This has been a really fun Second Round Series for the neutrals, but perhaps not so much for the fans of each team as the Toronto Raptors stole back Home Court advantage when levelling up the Series with the Philadelphia 76ers. A couple of really tight games in the four could easily have gone the other way and made this a one-sided Series, but there is all to play for in what has essentially become a best of three Second Round Series.
The Toronto Raptors have to be very pleased with the way they were able to produce in Game 4 after dropping back to back games to the 76ers. Pascal Siakim did suit up, but he was not the same player from earlier in the Series and the Raptors have to be hoping the couple of days of rest between games will see him restored to something closer to his best.
Both Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol stepped up without Siakim's production, but the key player was Kawhi Leonard again as he continues to dominate the 76ers. Ultimately he can't win this Series on his own, but Leonard is showing why so many teams are going to want to secure him on a long-term contract with the likelihood he becomes a Free Agent this summer increasing all of the time.
Philadelphia have had no real answer to Leonard, but they have won a couple of games in this Series by making sure the production from other Raptors players have not been enough. That is going to be the adjustment they make in Game 5 as they look to regain Home Court and the 76ers should feel good about the fact they have already won once here in this Series.
Jimmy Butler continues to play at a high level, but the 76ers will be hoping Joel Embiid is able to recover from the flu which restricted the impact he could make in Game 4. Again, having a couple of days to recover should be good news for Embiid who needs to be attacking Toronto if the 76ers are going to find a way to get the better of them.
Both teams have struggled from the three point range which is a real surprise and I do think whichever manages to get hot from that distance is going to take the Series. The Raptors have shown they are perhaps the better Defensive team of the two, but restricting points means this does feel like a lot of points for the 76ers to be given in what could be another tight, low scoring game.
I would be interested in backing the 'under' considering how all four games in this Series have been played, but I do think these are two teams who are capable of much better shooting from beyond the arc. We have yet to see that, but I would prefer to back the 76ers for the first time in this Series.
There have been a couple of blowouts in this Series, but the other two games have both been decided by 5 points. The 76ers have covered in their last four games off a loss while the host being favoured by 6 or more points in Game 5 of the NBA PlayOffs Second Round have tended to struggle when it comes to covering the number. I also go back to a trend I have mentioned before and that is underdogs in the Second Round who are coming off a straight up loss as a favourite have a very strong covering record as Toronto proved in Game 4 and now the Philadelphia 76ers are in that spot.
I do think the Raptors are likely going to make the big plays late in the fourth quarter to win the game straight up, but this feels like a lot of points to be giving to the road underdog.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: When they were trailing by 7 points at half time in Game 4 and coming in off the four Overtime loss it would have taken a brave person to suggest the Denver Nuggets were going to return home at 2-2 in this Second Round Series. A shooting slump in the third quarter cost the Portland Trail Blazers though and they might regret the failure to really put their foot down on the Number 2 Seeded Nuggets.
Now we are in the situation of a best of three to decide which of these teams is going to be playing in the Western Conference Finals. The Denver Nuggets should be feeling very good in this spot considering how strong they have been at home and hosting two of the remaining three games, but the Portland Trail Blazers will feel they have been in the better team in the last three games and they have already won here once in this Series.
Damian Lillard has not been at his most efficient in this Series despite the stat line remaining strong and it was his missed Free Throws in the fourth quarter which effectively helped the Nuggets come through with a win. The Trail Blazers need to get more from Lillard without him needing to throw up as many shots as he has, but overall they have to be pleased with how they have matched up with the Nuggets.
Controlling Nikola Jokic is proving to be a real chore for Portland, but they will live with him getting his points if they can slow down the other players on the team. Jamal Murray had a big Game 4 and Will Barton put aside his own shooting woes to secure the win with some big time threes to close the game and it is those players that Portland can't allow to beat them.
Enes Kanter had his issues in Game 4 as he is perhaps continuing to struggle with his shoulder, but he will be looking for a bounce back performance as the Trail Blazers try and earn more successive off the glass. He needs to be much stronger in the remaining games of this Series if the Trail Blazers are going to find a way to win it, but other adjustments are going to be needed to make sure Denver are not earning as many Offensive boards as they have been.
An underdog off a straight up loss is a good spot for the Trail Blazers to be in and it makes even more sense to me to back them with the amount of points they are getting. The last two games have been settled by a combined 7 points and Portland are getting a 4.5 point start in a Series where the underdog has covered in three in a row.
Portland are also 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and the road team has improved to 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams. I have to respect how much better Denver tend to play when at home and their strong covering run here, but this Series have seen these two teams play some very close games which have been decided late and so having the points is appealing to me here.
Wednesday 8th May
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: So much more was expected from the Boston Celtics in the 2018/19 NBA season, but instead they are on the brink of exiting in the Second Round of the PlayOffs. This is a very big moment for the franchise with the expected departure of Kyrie Irving impending as the former Cleveland Cavalier has not been able to get on the same page as his team-mates.
There is a definite discord in the locker room and the departure of Irving feels closer than ever at the moment. The struggles in this Series may make the fans less nervous about losing someone who is as talented as Irving clearly is, especially as he has failed to show he can be the leader he wanted to be ever since he broke off from LeBron James who he felt was overshadowing him in Cleveland.
Kyrie Irving's struggles from the field have been a big reason the Milwaukee Bucks have been able to move into a commanding 3-1 position in this Series having won back to back games on the road. The Game 1 defeat looks a long time ago now and Milwaukee are playing with the aggressiveness and belief which took them to the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks have not really been tested in this Series as you thought they might be when they dropped the first game and they will be looking to do more of the same which has led to three comfortable wins. Even the return of Marcus Smart is unlikely to change the flow of the Series at this stage and Boston are going to have to produce a whole new level if they want to take Milwaukee home for one more game.
It feels a long shot considering the lack of adjustments they have been able to make and the Defensive issues in trying to slow down the Bucks. Milwaukee have scored at least 113 points in each of their three wins over Boston in the Second Round and they will be expecting to keep the roll going at home.
I can't deny that this seems like a lot of points for the home team to cover and it is the largest spread of the Series so far, but Milwaukee look to be in rampant mood. The Celtics are coming off three straight losses and players aren't getting on with each other which makes it difficult to imagine how they rally in Game 5, while Milwaukee are 22-10 against the spread when favoured by 9 or more points this season.
Some will point out the recent success Boston have had coming in off a double digit loss at home, but Milwaukee are 22-7-1 against the spread in their last thirty games following a win by double digits to negate that trend for the visitors. Perhaps Boston dig down deep and find something special for Game 5, but I can't help think that the Bucks have proven they are the superior team and can move through to the Eastern Conference Finals behind another dominant performance against the pre-season favourites in the East.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: An Overtime win in Game 3 and holding off a Golden State Warriors rally in Game 4 has helped the Houston Rockets tie this Second Round Series 2-2 to make it a best of three situation. Both teams will be very much aware they are going to be strong favourites to reach the NBA Finals if they are able to see off the other as they get set to face off in what could be a pivotal Game 5.
There is no denying that the moment is seemingly with the Rockets considering they have come back from 0-2 down in the Series. However they have to show they can win a PlayOff game at the Oracle Arena like they did twelve months ago, although on that occasion it was two home losses that consigned Houston Rockets to the beaches while Golden State went on to win another NBA Championship.
The feeling back then was that the injury to Chris Paul cost Houston, but the veteran is playing well in this Series and the Rockets as a whole are shooting the ball lights out from beyond the arc. That ability has been a feature of their successes under Mike D'Antoni and Houston are massively outdoing Golden State from that distance as both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been struggling with their shot.
The Warriors are going to need both to fine-tune their game and be prepared for this one if they are going to hold off the Houston Rockets. Other players are stepping up to try and make up for the struggles of Curry and Thompson, but Kevin Durant will be the first to tell you that those two need to be firing if the Warriors are going to win the Series and all that despite how dominant Durant is being himself.
Houston have made things even easier for themselves by winning the rebounding battle in the last couple of games and that is going to be another critical factor. When the Warriors are making stops, they need to secure the handle on the ball if they are going to win this Series and the team who have secured the most rebounds have won each of the four games in this Series so far.
Being at home should reenergise the Warriors after the two losses on the road, especially as they will feel they missed a trick to secure at least one of those games.
Golden State have tended to be over-rated at home by the oddsmakers and that is underlined by their very poor covering record over the last few months. However they are looking to bounce back from a loss and have tended to play stronger in those spots, while I also think they will be doing better on the boards now they are back at home.
This Rockets team is dangerous to oppose when you think of the way they are shooting the three ball, but a trend that is coming up strong over the last twelve months is backing home teams when at 2-2 in a Series. Both teams on Tuesday covered in that spot to make those teams 6-1 against the spread since the beginning of the 2018 NBA PlayOffs and I am expecting enough of a reaction from the Warriors to think they can keep that going even against this relatively big number.
None of the games in this Series have been blow outs which is not a big surprise, but the favourite has covered in three in a row and I will look for the Warriors to make it four.
Thursday 9th May
The injury suffered by Kevin Durant was tough to read about and I really hope he has avoided the Achilles problems which need a number of months of recovery. This is the best basketball player in the world and it would be a real shame if he was to miss the rest of the NBA PlayOffs having taken over the Golden State Warriors and I do hope Durant can be back better than ever.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: It is one thing going down to a Game 5 defeat on the road in a tied Series, but it is another altogether when you are absolutely blown out the way the Philadelphia 76ers were a couple of days ago in Toronto. Now the Raptors are on the brink of joining the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the 76ers are at home where they are expected to respond in the right way.
The last two games have not gone the way the 76ers have expected and some of that is down to the fact that they feel they have not been aggressiveness enough on the court. Joel Embiid is being slowed down by a flu which is not helping his cause, but the 76ers need him as they can't match the depth that the Toronto Raptors bring to the court.
This challenge is all the more difficult for the 76ers as they don't have the best player on the court either. Kawhi Leonard continues to show his dominance and he was even afforded a little more rest in Game 5 with the Raptors very much in control of how things were developing.
It is not up to the 76ers to stop Leonard as they have proven they don't really know how to do that, but they have to make sure the role players are not taking over this game. If they can do that the Philadelphia 76ers have every chance of making good on Embiid's statement to Drake that he 'will be back' in Toronto for a Game 7 to be played this weekend.
Turnovers are going to be key to this game as that was a major factor in the blow out suffered by the 76ers a couple of days ago, while historically they look to be in a good spot. Teams off blow out wins of double digits have struggled on the road in Game 6 in the Second Round, although it is not easy to trust this 76ers team which is so reliant on their starting line up.
Joel Embiid needs to start producing again having had two slow games since the 76ers moved 2-1 ahead in the Series and back to back losses will have dented the confidence of the 76ers. Being the home dog should at least give the 76ers motivation to provide their absolute best effort even if the Raptors are the better team, and Philadelphia are 9-3 against the spread when given less than 4 points as the dog this season.
It will be a tough game for the home team and if Toronto are at their best it may be difficult for the 76ers to do enough to win this game. However I like them here with the points and will take those being offered.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 6 Pick: The Toronto Raptors were not the only home team blowing out their opponents in a Series they were tied at 2-2 a couple of days ago. The Denver Nuggets used the same pattern as the Raptors to see off the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 5 and like Toronto they have won two in a row as they look to close out a Series on the road.
The altitude of home advantage is a real factor for the Nuggets and has been a strong reason for them finishing with the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. However they have already shown they can recover from a deficit and win games on the road throughout the NBA PlayOffs and they will be looking to put one more on the board on their way through to the Western Conference Finals.
It won't be easy to see off the Portland Trail Blazers who have to believe they have missed a big chance to take control of this Series when leading 2-1. They were beaten at home in Game 4, but had chances to win that one, while Damian Lillard continues to struggle with his shot.
Portland need Lillard and they will also be hoping the pressure is perhaps going to get to the young Nuggets players. The former is more likely to happen than the latter judging by what we have seen from the Nuggets throughout this season and I think the layers have got this spread right on the money as I am finding it hard to separate them.
There is the same trend that historically has seen teams off a Game 5 blow out struggling to cover the number on the road in Game 6. That goes against Denver here, but they have covered in the last three games in this Series and so this has the feeling of another game that could go right down to the wire.
What has been evident is that these teams are capable of scoring plenty of points against each other as they continue to play at a high tempo featuring plenty of three point shooting. While both continue to be hot from that range it may be wise to go with the total which has seen the 'over' go 4-1 in the Series so far, although I have to admit the one 'under' was in Game 2 when was the last time I picked the 'over'.
Annoying trends like that aside, it has to be noted that the 'over' is 8-1 in the last nine between these teams. Surpassing the total points line has been the trend in recent Denver road games with the last seven hitting the mark, while it is also 10-2 when they have played with one day rest between games.
It has also been the play in Portland home games with one day rest between games having covered in 70% of their last thirty-four games in that spot and I think the scoring might continue through one more game.
Friday 10th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 6 Pick: Two of the Second Round Series have already moved into a position where they are going to need a Game 7 to decide which teams are going to be heading into the Conference Finals. A third Series may also be heading that way if the Houston Rockets can beat the Golden State Warriors on Friday at home in the first elimination game they are facing in the NBA PlayOffs in 2019.
The Rockets may actually feel like the Basketball Gods are with them this time despite going down 3-2 after losing Game 5 at the Oracle Arena a couple of days ago. Twelve months ago the Rockets led 3-2 before Chris Paul was lost for the Series with an injury that they could not overcome, but this time it is the Warriors who have lost Kevin Durant for at least the remainder of this Series which has perhaps soured being in a 3-2 lead.
Houston know the Warriors are not the same team without Durant, but they would be foolish to believe they are going to be able steam through the defending Champions. You have to remember that Golden State have won titles without Durant before and the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will be hoping they can keep the boat afloat while they wait for the best player in the world to return.
In some ways Houston may have missed a trick in not seeing off the Warriors in Game 5 having entered the final quarter in a position where they could win and knowing Durant was likely done for the game. They could not find the scoring they needed to do that and now they have to face a Golden State team who have had a couple of days to think about the adjustments they need to make in this Series.
I think that is going to be key and I very much believe this spread is one that the Golden State players are going to use as a big motivation to perform. Neither Curry or Thompson have had big Series, but they showed they can step up when Durant went down in Game 5, while the Warriors are 3-1 straight up without KD this season.
One of those wins came on the road at the Houston Rockets and that has to give this team belief as they try and move through to the Western Conference Finals and then give the team time to rest including Durant. The latter has been ruled out of any Game 7 this weekend anyway, but the whole team may be able to rally together if they can win this Series on Friday and I am not ruling them out from being able to do that.
You just know the Warriors are going to feel disrespected as they are the biggest underdogs in Steve Kerr's time as Head Coach in the PlayOffs. Houston also have to overcome their own recent history having lost their last three elimination games in the PlayOffs and two of those have come at home, while it won't surprise you to hear they are 0-3 against the spread in those games too.
The Rockets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home against the Warriors and they have covered in both Game 3 and Game 4 that was played here. They also have been very strong against the spread when playing at home, but this is a lot of points for the Warriors to get and I just can't help but think they are the right side even if there is a Game 7 to come on Sunday.
Sunday 12th May
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: Once you reach a Game 7 of a Series in the NBA PlayOffs there really isn't much you can tell either team about the way the other is going to want to play. The Portland Trail Blazers managed to rally and fight out of one elimination game when they took Game 6 at home, but they know how difficult it is going to be to win Game 7 in Denver where the Nuggets have been strong.
Of course the Trail Blazers have won once here already in this Second Round Series, but the Nuggets will be confident having won by blow out in Game 5. They have won five of their seven home games in the NBA PlayOffs this season and the altitude coupled with the early start may work in their favour considering this is going to feel like a midday game for Portland.
It is an early start for the Nuggets too, but they will be more comfortable being in home surroundings, although I think there is enough to like about both teams that makes it difficult picking a winner. The layers are very much in favour of Denver who are 5.5 point favourites in this Game 7, but I think the pressurised situation of an elimination game could be tough to overcome.
The Nuggets won a Game 7 in the First Round against the San Antonio Spurs at home, but they did not cover the number and that makes it hard to back them here. If the Portland Trail Blazers are as hot shooting the ball as they were in Game 6 they have every chance of securing an upset and a place in the Western Conference Finals to face the Golden State Warriors, but the point spread looks a difficult play.
In recent years the play in Game 7 that has been trending is backing the total points line to be too much for the teams to combine for. You can understand why it has happened with teams playing with the tension of elimination and perhaps the referees are not so keen to be involved in any controversy by calling the fouls they may do earlier in the Series, but the 'over' has been a strong trend between these teams.
The 'over' is now 19-7 in the last twenty-six between the Nuggets and the Trail Blazers and it is also 4-1 in the last five in Denver. Both teams continue to have strong trends that lean that way and it was the play I made in Game 6 which saw the teams comfortably surpass what is a similar line again.
The tempo of both teams means they should have enough possessions to have a chance to surpass this number, while both Denver and Portland can be very hot from the three point line. If the referees play this Series as they have throughout the first six games, I think there is every chance they will score enough points to beat the total points line again and I am going to back that to be the outcome of Game 7.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 7 Pick: Every time it has felt like this Second Round Series was seeing the momentum with one team, the other has been able to respond and recover. The Philadelphia 76ers and Joel Embiid were certain they were going to return to the Toronto Raptors to play out a Game 7 despite losing back to back games and facing elimination at home and they made good on that promise.
The Philadelphia 76ers continue to be set as the underdogs after winning Game 6 in that position and they may feel they are playing without the pressure that the Toronto Raptors are dealing with. This Series has been tougher for the Raptors than most would have expected it to be and the players are playing under a cloud knowing what is going to be awaiting for them if they are eliminated in a Series they had been leading 3-2.
Being at home can bring its own pressure with the expectation from the crowd potentially weighing down on the players, but Toronto Raptors have to be reminding themselves they have blown Philadelphia out twice at home already in this Series. Granted they did drop Game 2, but the Raptors have to believe if they are at their best they are going to win this Game 7 and move through to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The 76ers got big games out of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in Game 6 to square up this Series and they are going to need more of the same if they are going to upset the odds. It feels like the Raptors have a little more room for manoeuvre with the way they play and the 76ers need to be almost perfect for them to win this game and I certainly think that can play a part in the outcome of this one.
While I have been impressed with the way the starting five of the 76ers can get it going, I do think they have been a little up and down with the way they have performed. They don't seem to have the same depth as the Raptors who can make the slight adjustments to make sure they can lock things down Defensively and I can't ignore the fact they have blown out the 76ers twice in this Series.
Those have contributed to Philadelphia going 1-6 against the spread in their last seven in Toronto, while they are only 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen following a win of double digits. At the same time the Raptors have covered in their last six following a double digit defeat and the home team is 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve when Philadelphia and Toronto have played one another.
Toronto don't have the best recent record in Game 7s, but I think they are the better team and the experience of dealing with this pressurised environment could be important for them. The 76ers don't have that same type of history to call upon and the worry that they have to really have everything fall into place to be successful is too much of a worry and I think the home team may just have too much again.
The public are very much on the road team, but I don't mind being in a position to oppose them here.
MY PICKS: 07/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
07/05 Portland Trail Blazers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/05 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
09/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
09/05 Portland Trail Blazers-Denver Nuggets Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
10/05 Golden State Warriors + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
12/05 Denver Nuggets-Portland Trail Blazers Over 212.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
12/05 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Second Round Update: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
First Round Final: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)
The Toronto Raptors have to be very pleased with the way they were able to produce in Game 4 after dropping back to back games to the 76ers. Pascal Siakim did suit up, but he was not the same player from earlier in the Series and the Raptors have to be hoping the couple of days of rest between games will see him restored to something closer to his best.
Both Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol stepped up without Siakim's production, but the key player was Kawhi Leonard again as he continues to dominate the 76ers. Ultimately he can't win this Series on his own, but Leonard is showing why so many teams are going to want to secure him on a long-term contract with the likelihood he becomes a Free Agent this summer increasing all of the time.
Philadelphia have had no real answer to Leonard, but they have won a couple of games in this Series by making sure the production from other Raptors players have not been enough. That is going to be the adjustment they make in Game 5 as they look to regain Home Court and the 76ers should feel good about the fact they have already won once here in this Series.
Jimmy Butler continues to play at a high level, but the 76ers will be hoping Joel Embiid is able to recover from the flu which restricted the impact he could make in Game 4. Again, having a couple of days to recover should be good news for Embiid who needs to be attacking Toronto if the 76ers are going to find a way to get the better of them.
Both teams have struggled from the three point range which is a real surprise and I do think whichever manages to get hot from that distance is going to take the Series. The Raptors have shown they are perhaps the better Defensive team of the two, but restricting points means this does feel like a lot of points for the 76ers to be given in what could be another tight, low scoring game.
I would be interested in backing the 'under' considering how all four games in this Series have been played, but I do think these are two teams who are capable of much better shooting from beyond the arc. We have yet to see that, but I would prefer to back the 76ers for the first time in this Series.
There have been a couple of blowouts in this Series, but the other two games have both been decided by 5 points. The 76ers have covered in their last four games off a loss while the host being favoured by 6 or more points in Game 5 of the NBA PlayOffs Second Round have tended to struggle when it comes to covering the number. I also go back to a trend I have mentioned before and that is underdogs in the Second Round who are coming off a straight up loss as a favourite have a very strong covering record as Toronto proved in Game 4 and now the Philadelphia 76ers are in that spot.
I do think the Raptors are likely going to make the big plays late in the fourth quarter to win the game straight up, but this feels like a lot of points to be giving to the road underdog.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: When they were trailing by 7 points at half time in Game 4 and coming in off the four Overtime loss it would have taken a brave person to suggest the Denver Nuggets were going to return home at 2-2 in this Second Round Series. A shooting slump in the third quarter cost the Portland Trail Blazers though and they might regret the failure to really put their foot down on the Number 2 Seeded Nuggets.
Now we are in the situation of a best of three to decide which of these teams is going to be playing in the Western Conference Finals. The Denver Nuggets should be feeling very good in this spot considering how strong they have been at home and hosting two of the remaining three games, but the Portland Trail Blazers will feel they have been in the better team in the last three games and they have already won here once in this Series.
Damian Lillard has not been at his most efficient in this Series despite the stat line remaining strong and it was his missed Free Throws in the fourth quarter which effectively helped the Nuggets come through with a win. The Trail Blazers need to get more from Lillard without him needing to throw up as many shots as he has, but overall they have to be pleased with how they have matched up with the Nuggets.
Controlling Nikola Jokic is proving to be a real chore for Portland, but they will live with him getting his points if they can slow down the other players on the team. Jamal Murray had a big Game 4 and Will Barton put aside his own shooting woes to secure the win with some big time threes to close the game and it is those players that Portland can't allow to beat them.
Enes Kanter had his issues in Game 4 as he is perhaps continuing to struggle with his shoulder, but he will be looking for a bounce back performance as the Trail Blazers try and earn more successive off the glass. He needs to be much stronger in the remaining games of this Series if the Trail Blazers are going to find a way to win it, but other adjustments are going to be needed to make sure Denver are not earning as many Offensive boards as they have been.
An underdog off a straight up loss is a good spot for the Trail Blazers to be in and it makes even more sense to me to back them with the amount of points they are getting. The last two games have been settled by a combined 7 points and Portland are getting a 4.5 point start in a Series where the underdog has covered in three in a row.
Portland are also 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and the road team has improved to 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams. I have to respect how much better Denver tend to play when at home and their strong covering run here, but this Series have seen these two teams play some very close games which have been decided late and so having the points is appealing to me here.
Wednesday 8th May
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: So much more was expected from the Boston Celtics in the 2018/19 NBA season, but instead they are on the brink of exiting in the Second Round of the PlayOffs. This is a very big moment for the franchise with the expected departure of Kyrie Irving impending as the former Cleveland Cavalier has not been able to get on the same page as his team-mates.
There is a definite discord in the locker room and the departure of Irving feels closer than ever at the moment. The struggles in this Series may make the fans less nervous about losing someone who is as talented as Irving clearly is, especially as he has failed to show he can be the leader he wanted to be ever since he broke off from LeBron James who he felt was overshadowing him in Cleveland.
Kyrie Irving's struggles from the field have been a big reason the Milwaukee Bucks have been able to move into a commanding 3-1 position in this Series having won back to back games on the road. The Game 1 defeat looks a long time ago now and Milwaukee are playing with the aggressiveness and belief which took them to the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks have not really been tested in this Series as you thought they might be when they dropped the first game and they will be looking to do more of the same which has led to three comfortable wins. Even the return of Marcus Smart is unlikely to change the flow of the Series at this stage and Boston are going to have to produce a whole new level if they want to take Milwaukee home for one more game.
It feels a long shot considering the lack of adjustments they have been able to make and the Defensive issues in trying to slow down the Bucks. Milwaukee have scored at least 113 points in each of their three wins over Boston in the Second Round and they will be expecting to keep the roll going at home.
I can't deny that this seems like a lot of points for the home team to cover and it is the largest spread of the Series so far, but Milwaukee look to be in rampant mood. The Celtics are coming off three straight losses and players aren't getting on with each other which makes it difficult to imagine how they rally in Game 5, while Milwaukee are 22-10 against the spread when favoured by 9 or more points this season.
Some will point out the recent success Boston have had coming in off a double digit loss at home, but Milwaukee are 22-7-1 against the spread in their last thirty games following a win by double digits to negate that trend for the visitors. Perhaps Boston dig down deep and find something special for Game 5, but I can't help think that the Bucks have proven they are the superior team and can move through to the Eastern Conference Finals behind another dominant performance against the pre-season favourites in the East.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: An Overtime win in Game 3 and holding off a Golden State Warriors rally in Game 4 has helped the Houston Rockets tie this Second Round Series 2-2 to make it a best of three situation. Both teams will be very much aware they are going to be strong favourites to reach the NBA Finals if they are able to see off the other as they get set to face off in what could be a pivotal Game 5.
There is no denying that the moment is seemingly with the Rockets considering they have come back from 0-2 down in the Series. However they have to show they can win a PlayOff game at the Oracle Arena like they did twelve months ago, although on that occasion it was two home losses that consigned Houston Rockets to the beaches while Golden State went on to win another NBA Championship.
The feeling back then was that the injury to Chris Paul cost Houston, but the veteran is playing well in this Series and the Rockets as a whole are shooting the ball lights out from beyond the arc. That ability has been a feature of their successes under Mike D'Antoni and Houston are massively outdoing Golden State from that distance as both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have been struggling with their shot.
The Warriors are going to need both to fine-tune their game and be prepared for this one if they are going to hold off the Houston Rockets. Other players are stepping up to try and make up for the struggles of Curry and Thompson, but Kevin Durant will be the first to tell you that those two need to be firing if the Warriors are going to win the Series and all that despite how dominant Durant is being himself.
Houston have made things even easier for themselves by winning the rebounding battle in the last couple of games and that is going to be another critical factor. When the Warriors are making stops, they need to secure the handle on the ball if they are going to win this Series and the team who have secured the most rebounds have won each of the four games in this Series so far.
Being at home should reenergise the Warriors after the two losses on the road, especially as they will feel they missed a trick to secure at least one of those games.
Golden State have tended to be over-rated at home by the oddsmakers and that is underlined by their very poor covering record over the last few months. However they are looking to bounce back from a loss and have tended to play stronger in those spots, while I also think they will be doing better on the boards now they are back at home.
This Rockets team is dangerous to oppose when you think of the way they are shooting the three ball, but a trend that is coming up strong over the last twelve months is backing home teams when at 2-2 in a Series. Both teams on Tuesday covered in that spot to make those teams 6-1 against the spread since the beginning of the 2018 NBA PlayOffs and I am expecting enough of a reaction from the Warriors to think they can keep that going even against this relatively big number.
None of the games in this Series have been blow outs which is not a big surprise, but the favourite has covered in three in a row and I will look for the Warriors to make it four.
Thursday 9th May
The injury suffered by Kevin Durant was tough to read about and I really hope he has avoided the Achilles problems which need a number of months of recovery. This is the best basketball player in the world and it would be a real shame if he was to miss the rest of the NBA PlayOffs having taken over the Golden State Warriors and I do hope Durant can be back better than ever.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: It is one thing going down to a Game 5 defeat on the road in a tied Series, but it is another altogether when you are absolutely blown out the way the Philadelphia 76ers were a couple of days ago in Toronto. Now the Raptors are on the brink of joining the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the 76ers are at home where they are expected to respond in the right way.
The last two games have not gone the way the 76ers have expected and some of that is down to the fact that they feel they have not been aggressiveness enough on the court. Joel Embiid is being slowed down by a flu which is not helping his cause, but the 76ers need him as they can't match the depth that the Toronto Raptors bring to the court.
This challenge is all the more difficult for the 76ers as they don't have the best player on the court either. Kawhi Leonard continues to show his dominance and he was even afforded a little more rest in Game 5 with the Raptors very much in control of how things were developing.
It is not up to the 76ers to stop Leonard as they have proven they don't really know how to do that, but they have to make sure the role players are not taking over this game. If they can do that the Philadelphia 76ers have every chance of making good on Embiid's statement to Drake that he 'will be back' in Toronto for a Game 7 to be played this weekend.
Turnovers are going to be key to this game as that was a major factor in the blow out suffered by the 76ers a couple of days ago, while historically they look to be in a good spot. Teams off blow out wins of double digits have struggled on the road in Game 6 in the Second Round, although it is not easy to trust this 76ers team which is so reliant on their starting line up.
Joel Embiid needs to start producing again having had two slow games since the 76ers moved 2-1 ahead in the Series and back to back losses will have dented the confidence of the 76ers. Being the home dog should at least give the 76ers motivation to provide their absolute best effort even if the Raptors are the better team, and Philadelphia are 9-3 against the spread when given less than 4 points as the dog this season.
It will be a tough game for the home team and if Toronto are at their best it may be difficult for the 76ers to do enough to win this game. However I like them here with the points and will take those being offered.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 6 Pick: The Toronto Raptors were not the only home team blowing out their opponents in a Series they were tied at 2-2 a couple of days ago. The Denver Nuggets used the same pattern as the Raptors to see off the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 5 and like Toronto they have won two in a row as they look to close out a Series on the road.
The altitude of home advantage is a real factor for the Nuggets and has been a strong reason for them finishing with the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. However they have already shown they can recover from a deficit and win games on the road throughout the NBA PlayOffs and they will be looking to put one more on the board on their way through to the Western Conference Finals.
It won't be easy to see off the Portland Trail Blazers who have to believe they have missed a big chance to take control of this Series when leading 2-1. They were beaten at home in Game 4, but had chances to win that one, while Damian Lillard continues to struggle with his shot.
Portland need Lillard and they will also be hoping the pressure is perhaps going to get to the young Nuggets players. The former is more likely to happen than the latter judging by what we have seen from the Nuggets throughout this season and I think the layers have got this spread right on the money as I am finding it hard to separate them.
There is the same trend that historically has seen teams off a Game 5 blow out struggling to cover the number on the road in Game 6. That goes against Denver here, but they have covered in the last three games in this Series and so this has the feeling of another game that could go right down to the wire.
What has been evident is that these teams are capable of scoring plenty of points against each other as they continue to play at a high tempo featuring plenty of three point shooting. While both continue to be hot from that range it may be wise to go with the total which has seen the 'over' go 4-1 in the Series so far, although I have to admit the one 'under' was in Game 2 when was the last time I picked the 'over'.
Annoying trends like that aside, it has to be noted that the 'over' is 8-1 in the last nine between these teams. Surpassing the total points line has been the trend in recent Denver road games with the last seven hitting the mark, while it is also 10-2 when they have played with one day rest between games.
It has also been the play in Portland home games with one day rest between games having covered in 70% of their last thirty-four games in that spot and I think the scoring might continue through one more game.
Friday 10th May
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 6 Pick: Two of the Second Round Series have already moved into a position where they are going to need a Game 7 to decide which teams are going to be heading into the Conference Finals. A third Series may also be heading that way if the Houston Rockets can beat the Golden State Warriors on Friday at home in the first elimination game they are facing in the NBA PlayOffs in 2019.
The Rockets may actually feel like the Basketball Gods are with them this time despite going down 3-2 after losing Game 5 at the Oracle Arena a couple of days ago. Twelve months ago the Rockets led 3-2 before Chris Paul was lost for the Series with an injury that they could not overcome, but this time it is the Warriors who have lost Kevin Durant for at least the remainder of this Series which has perhaps soured being in a 3-2 lead.
Houston know the Warriors are not the same team without Durant, but they would be foolish to believe they are going to be able steam through the defending Champions. You have to remember that Golden State have won titles without Durant before and the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will be hoping they can keep the boat afloat while they wait for the best player in the world to return.
In some ways Houston may have missed a trick in not seeing off the Warriors in Game 5 having entered the final quarter in a position where they could win and knowing Durant was likely done for the game. They could not find the scoring they needed to do that and now they have to face a Golden State team who have had a couple of days to think about the adjustments they need to make in this Series.
I think that is going to be key and I very much believe this spread is one that the Golden State players are going to use as a big motivation to perform. Neither Curry or Thompson have had big Series, but they showed they can step up when Durant went down in Game 5, while the Warriors are 3-1 straight up without KD this season.
One of those wins came on the road at the Houston Rockets and that has to give this team belief as they try and move through to the Western Conference Finals and then give the team time to rest including Durant. The latter has been ruled out of any Game 7 this weekend anyway, but the whole team may be able to rally together if they can win this Series on Friday and I am not ruling them out from being able to do that.
You just know the Warriors are going to feel disrespected as they are the biggest underdogs in Steve Kerr's time as Head Coach in the PlayOffs. Houston also have to overcome their own recent history having lost their last three elimination games in the PlayOffs and two of those have come at home, while it won't surprise you to hear they are 0-3 against the spread in those games too.
The Rockets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home against the Warriors and they have covered in both Game 3 and Game 4 that was played here. They also have been very strong against the spread when playing at home, but this is a lot of points for the Warriors to get and I just can't help but think they are the right side even if there is a Game 7 to come on Sunday.
Sunday 12th May
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: Once you reach a Game 7 of a Series in the NBA PlayOffs there really isn't much you can tell either team about the way the other is going to want to play. The Portland Trail Blazers managed to rally and fight out of one elimination game when they took Game 6 at home, but they know how difficult it is going to be to win Game 7 in Denver where the Nuggets have been strong.
Of course the Trail Blazers have won once here already in this Second Round Series, but the Nuggets will be confident having won by blow out in Game 5. They have won five of their seven home games in the NBA PlayOffs this season and the altitude coupled with the early start may work in their favour considering this is going to feel like a midday game for Portland.
It is an early start for the Nuggets too, but they will be more comfortable being in home surroundings, although I think there is enough to like about both teams that makes it difficult picking a winner. The layers are very much in favour of Denver who are 5.5 point favourites in this Game 7, but I think the pressurised situation of an elimination game could be tough to overcome.
The Nuggets won a Game 7 in the First Round against the San Antonio Spurs at home, but they did not cover the number and that makes it hard to back them here. If the Portland Trail Blazers are as hot shooting the ball as they were in Game 6 they have every chance of securing an upset and a place in the Western Conference Finals to face the Golden State Warriors, but the point spread looks a difficult play.
In recent years the play in Game 7 that has been trending is backing the total points line to be too much for the teams to combine for. You can understand why it has happened with teams playing with the tension of elimination and perhaps the referees are not so keen to be involved in any controversy by calling the fouls they may do earlier in the Series, but the 'over' has been a strong trend between these teams.
The 'over' is now 19-7 in the last twenty-six between the Nuggets and the Trail Blazers and it is also 4-1 in the last five in Denver. Both teams continue to have strong trends that lean that way and it was the play I made in Game 6 which saw the teams comfortably surpass what is a similar line again.
The tempo of both teams means they should have enough possessions to have a chance to surpass this number, while both Denver and Portland can be very hot from the three point line. If the referees play this Series as they have throughout the first six games, I think there is every chance they will score enough points to beat the total points line again and I am going to back that to be the outcome of Game 7.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Toronto Raptors Game 7 Pick: Every time it has felt like this Second Round Series was seeing the momentum with one team, the other has been able to respond and recover. The Philadelphia 76ers and Joel Embiid were certain they were going to return to the Toronto Raptors to play out a Game 7 despite losing back to back games and facing elimination at home and they made good on that promise.
The Philadelphia 76ers continue to be set as the underdogs after winning Game 6 in that position and they may feel they are playing without the pressure that the Toronto Raptors are dealing with. This Series has been tougher for the Raptors than most would have expected it to be and the players are playing under a cloud knowing what is going to be awaiting for them if they are eliminated in a Series they had been leading 3-2.
Being at home can bring its own pressure with the expectation from the crowd potentially weighing down on the players, but Toronto Raptors have to be reminding themselves they have blown Philadelphia out twice at home already in this Series. Granted they did drop Game 2, but the Raptors have to believe if they are at their best they are going to win this Game 7 and move through to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The 76ers got big games out of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in Game 6 to square up this Series and they are going to need more of the same if they are going to upset the odds. It feels like the Raptors have a little more room for manoeuvre with the way they play and the 76ers need to be almost perfect for them to win this game and I certainly think that can play a part in the outcome of this one.
While I have been impressed with the way the starting five of the 76ers can get it going, I do think they have been a little up and down with the way they have performed. They don't seem to have the same depth as the Raptors who can make the slight adjustments to make sure they can lock things down Defensively and I can't ignore the fact they have blown out the 76ers twice in this Series.
Those have contributed to Philadelphia going 1-6 against the spread in their last seven in Toronto, while they are only 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen following a win of double digits. At the same time the Raptors have covered in their last six following a double digit defeat and the home team is 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve when Philadelphia and Toronto have played one another.
Toronto don't have the best recent record in Game 7s, but I think they are the better team and the experience of dealing with this pressurised environment could be important for them. The 76ers don't have that same type of history to call upon and the worry that they have to really have everything fall into place to be successful is too much of a worry and I think the home team may just have too much again.
The public are very much on the road team, but I don't mind being in a position to oppose them here.
MY PICKS: 07/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
07/05 Portland Trail Blazers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/05 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
09/05 Philadelphia 76ers + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
09/05 Portland Trail Blazers-Denver Nuggets Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
10/05 Golden State Warriors + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
12/05 Denver Nuggets-Portland Trail Blazers Over 212.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
12/05 Toronto Raptors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Second Round Update: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
First Round Final: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)
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