French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2019 (May 30th)

I may have finished with a winning Day 4 at the French Open, but I am still frustrated that I didn't have a better day than I did. The main culprit for that is Benoit Paire who managed to get himself broken when serving for the third and the fourth set and also missed a match point in the fourth set to fail to win and cover the set handicap as I imagined.

It would have made a big difference to the totals and I do feel it was a match that was capped perfectly.

Ultimately it hasn't been a good enough first week at the French Open as we see the Second Round completed on Thursday. I might be up, but I hate feeling I've left some positivity out there, although being able to add a profit is still where I want to be.

The French Open has plenty of days left to get through so there are chances for a strong tournament, but it would be nice to have a bit more fortune going into the remainder of the event.


I have had a busy day today and so I am only going to write an analysis of a few of the selections and then adding the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section below. I have also updated the totals for the week.


Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 sets v Kyle Edmund: All credit has to be given to Kyle Edmund for completing a five set win in the First Round in a match that needed to take place over a couple of days. A really poor clay court campaign has sapped the confidence from Edmund who has dropped down to World Number 30, but the win over Jeremy Chardy could help him recover mentally.

He had to knuckle down and battle through to the Second Round, but the step up in competition is going to be a challenge for him. Kyle Edmund won just a single point more than Jeremy Chardy over five sets and he did not serve or return as well as he would have liked and now has to face Pablo Cuevas who is very, very comfortable on the clay courts.

The Uruguayan won easily in the First Round and only a couple of sloppy service games prevented Cuevas from winning by a greater margin than he did. A straight sets win means he should be well rested and ready to go and Cuevas is coming in off another very good clay court showing over the last few months.

Pablo Cuevas has held 81% of the service games played on the clay courts in main ATP Tour matches and he has broken in 28% of the return games which shows how strong he can be on the surface. In the twenty-three matches played on clay on the main ATP circuit in 2019, Cuevas has won 52% of the points being that he has competed in and I think he is going to be very difficult to beat.

In recent years Kyle Edmund has shown he can be very good on the clay courts and that has to be respected. However he has held just 68% of the service games played in 2019 and the struggles behind that shot in the First Round suggests it is an issue that has yet to truly go away.

The Brit will look for the heavy forehand to dictate the way this match is played, but Cuevas has plenty of know how on the clay and he is playing with a lot more confidence than Edmund. I think it should lead to a win in three or four sets in one of the opening matches on Thursday as Edmund is forced to go back to the drawing board and move onto the grass courts.


Fernando Verdasco - 7.5 games v Antonie Hoang: Two players at opposite ends of their careers meet in the Second Round of the French Open as veteran Fernando Verdasco takes on young Frenchman Antonie Hoang. This is the first tournament in which Hoang has played in a main Tour event and he could not have asked for much more than playing in a Grand Slam in his home country.

A Wild Card allowed Hoang into the draw and he took advantage by beating Damir Dzumhur in the First Round. It might have been a four set win for the Frenchman, but he only won 5 more points than Dzumhur and I think Hoang is going to need to be much improved if he is going to upset a second opponent in a row.

It is a big ask for Hoang who was not exactly pulling up trees in his clay court matches in preparation for the French Open. He lost in the Qualifiers for Barcelona and Lyon as he tried to get into the main draw and Hoang was only holding 71% of his service games at a lower level than the one he is facing on Thursday.

In the First Round Hoang was broken seven times by Dzumhur and I do think even an erratic Fernando Verdasco can get the better of him. The Spaniard beat Daniel Evans in the First Round, but he had to ride out a sticky patch in the middle of a four set win before being able to pull away and his unfamiliarity with Hoang may see something similar occur in this one.

Fernando Verdasco has produced similar numbers to Hoang, but his have come on the main Tour and I think that difference in level will eventually tell in this one. I would hope Verdasco is not waiting too long to get to grips with the tennis he is seeing from the other side of the net because this not a very forgiving spread if he starts too slowly.

I think the first set will be tight, but Verdasco should begin to exert his quality over Hoang the longer the match goes. At some point I would expect him to put a lot of pressure on the Hoang serve and begin to break him often enough to produce a win and a cover of this spread total.


Borna Coric - 7.5 games v Lloyd Harris: The results might not have been as the performances for Borna Coric, but he has been playing some very good tennis on the clay courts. He continued the roll with a strong First Round win over Aljaz Bedene and he is being asked to cover one game more in the handicaps compared to that win in the First Round.

You can understand why as he gets set to face Lloyd Harris who has yet to have a really big impact on the main Tour. The South African did finally win his first clay court match in a main Tour event when seeing off Lukas Rosol in five sets in the First Round, but the challenge in front of him looks much more difficult in this match.

Lloyd Harris has played a couple of matches on the clay in Budapest and Lyon, but he lost both on the main Tour. In those matches Harris held serve in just 61% of the service games played and I would expect Coric to be able to put him under significant pressure in this one having broken in 24% of return games played on the clay courts in the lead up to this Grand Slam.

In the First Round I do think there was room for improvement for Coric who won 34% of the return points against Bedene and broke serve five times in four sets. Those numbers are not as impressive as I would expect from Coric who has won 40% of return points played on the clay courts in 2019, but this match should give him a chance to get back to his usual levels.

It is a big spread so Coric won't be able to make too slow a start, but I would anticipate him needing a bit of time to really understand the opponent in front of him. This is certainly something that can be an issue in the early Rounds of the Grand Slams as the bigger names face opponents they don't see around the Tour too often, but like Verdasco I would imagine Coric will eventually be able to exert his quality and he can win a set with a 6-1 or a 6-2 scoreline which can set him up for a cover.


Sam Stosur - 1.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: No one here is going to tell you that Sam Stosur is not at the very back end of her career with declining numbers and results for the former Grand Slam Champion. The Australian is on the brink of falling out of the top 100 of the World Rankings after peaking as World Number 4 back in 2011, and failing to win this Second Round match would likely mean she is going to be out of an automatic position to Qualify for Grand Slam events.

She had been struggling going into this tournament, but Stosur was a solid First Round winner over Barbora Strycova. The 45% of return points won coupled with a decent serving day took Stosur through to the Second Round and she is still playing some of her better tennis on this surface.

The second serve is very vulnerable which has to be a concern for Stosur going through the draw, but she has won 44% of return points played on the clay courts in preparation for the French Open. With the performance in the First Round Stosur could be good enough to take advantage of what has become an open part of the draw for her.

Petra Kvitova withdraw from the French Open on the eve of the tournament which removed the biggest threat in this mini section, while Ekaterina Alexandrova's upset of Mihaela Buzarnescu in the First Round means this should be a more winnable match for Stosur.

Ekaterina Alexandrova was just 6-20 on the main WTA Tour on the clay courts before her win over Buzarnescu, whose season has been disappointing to say the least. In the lead up to the French Open Alexandrova was just 1-6 on the clay court and like Stosur her second serve is a shot that can be attacked by opponents.

The difference between the two players is the return of serve where Stosur looks to have an edge over Alexandrova. In general those numbers have also been produced against better level of opponents than Alexandrova has faced and I am looking for the veteran to get the better of her opponent in this one.

The layers are anticipating a close match, but I like Stosur to show she is still a decent enough clay courter to win matches like this one. I will also look for her to cover the number in the win.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini-Federico Delbonis Over 37.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danielle Collins + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 29-22, + 8.02 Units (102 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)