The final WTA match of the 2018 season will be played on Sunday as we get down to the last two players in the WTA Finals in Singapore.
I think 2019 has been set up nicely by the performances of the players over the last week which suggests the titles are going to be keenly contested with very little between the best players. Of course Simona Halep and Serena Williams will feel they have something to say about that when they return to the Tour, but I do think there is room at the top of women's tennis for someone to take control.
This year we have had four different Grand Slam winners, but out of those I would think Halep and Naomi Osaka are most likely to add to the majors they won in 2018. Caroline Wozniacki is going to find it tough if her body lets her down, while Angelique Kerber has been inconsistent despite winning Wimbledon.
The name I would say to watch out for? Aryna Sabalenka.
She could easily become the best player to have come out of Belarus and her form at the back end of 2018 suggests she is ready to take the next step in her career. I will be interested to see what kind of price Sabalenka will be to win the Australian Open when that rolls around in January.
The ATP Tour is still a couple of weeks away from being concluded and the final Masters of the season is going to be played in Paris next week.
Before that the two Finals in Vienna and Basel will be completed on Sunday to put another week into the books.
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 games v Elina Svitolina: She lost the first eight games played in her Semi Final against Karolina Pliskova, but Sloane Stephens showed immense character to come back and then comfortably progress to the Final of the WTA Finals in her debut appearance in Singapore.
She goes into the Final as the favourite to get the better of Elina Svitolina who booked her place in the last match of the 2018 season by beating Kiki Bertens over three long sets. That means Svitolina has been involved in the two longest matches of the tournament and those have been played in her last two matches.
You have to factor that into the Final even if there is no doubting the Svitolina fitness. She is going to have to work long and hard again in the Final if she is going to get the better of Stephens and it has to be said that the Ukrainian has had to grit her teeth and really show the power of her determination to get to the Final.
Where Stephens has been mainly dominant this week, Svitolina has won three tight matches in her four wins and I have to think that will have sapped something both physically and emotionally.
The mental side of the match is always tough to get a read on, but Svitolina has regularly faltered in her really big moments on the Tour as the pressure tends to get the better of her. So far this week that hasn't come out, but I would not have fancied her chances of beating Bertens in the Semi Final if Svitolina had been broken in the third set serving at 5-4 and facing two break points.
It is the American who has won two of the previous three matches between these players including in Montreal back in August. Matches between these two have been competitive and both Stephens and Svitolina have been stronger on the return than on the serve, but I like Stephens in the Final with her superior performances in Singapore this week.
I think this will be a fun match, but I will look for Stephens to edge past Svitolina and cover this number too.
MY PICKS: Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 15-10, + 9.96 Units (50 Units Staked, + 19.92% Yield)
Sunday, 28 October 2018
Saturday, 27 October 2018
Boxing Picks 2018- Regis Prograis vs Terry Flanagan (October 27th)
With the new streaming services entering the world of Boxing it does feel like there are more cards being televised than ever before and that can only be good news for the fans.
Of course it can be taxing on the wallet if you want to watch all the fights, but at least in the United Kingdom the majority of the main cards that are of interest are shown on already subscribed for channels. Anyone who has a Sky Sports subscription will be getting the majority of cards being shown on DAZN, although I do think this will end up being a partnership that develops and leads to Sky wanting more money from their subscribers in the years ahead, especially if DAZN grows.
Box Nation is once again picking up more cards after a lull over the last few months which led to rumours that the channel was about to close. BT Sport have taken over the majority of the bigger cards though so I do wonder how long Box Nation will be able to survive in an increasingly competitive market.
One disappointment so far for us UK fans is the lack of television coverage of the World Boxing Super Series which has Season Two firmly underway. Those fights are being broadcast for free on social media, but next weekend there is a big card from Glasgow and I would not be surprised if that is picked up by someone.
No matter what, this is a great time to be a Boxing fan and Saturday is no different with a number of interesting fights taking place in four different locations.
Of course it can be taxing on the wallet if you want to watch all the fights, but at least in the United Kingdom the majority of the main cards that are of interest are shown on already subscribed for channels. Anyone who has a Sky Sports subscription will be getting the majority of cards being shown on DAZN, although I do think this will end up being a partnership that develops and leads to Sky wanting more money from their subscribers in the years ahead, especially if DAZN grows.
Box Nation is once again picking up more cards after a lull over the last few months which led to rumours that the channel was about to close. BT Sport have taken over the majority of the bigger cards though so I do wonder how long Box Nation will be able to survive in an increasingly competitive market.
One disappointment so far for us UK fans is the lack of television coverage of the World Boxing Super Series which has Season Two firmly underway. Those fights are being broadcast for free on social media, but next weekend there is a big card from Glasgow and I would not be surprised if that is picked up by someone.
No matter what, this is a great time to be a Boxing fan and Saturday is no different with a number of interesting fights taking place in four different locations.
Isaac Chamberlain vs Luke Watkins
This has to be considered a crossroads fight for both Isaac Chamberlain and Luke Watkins who are both coming into this one off the back of losses to Lawrence Okolie.
The Chamberlain fight with Okolie was a really boring one as the headline on a card at the O2 Arena and it was a comfortably points win for the latter. There is some pressure on Chamberlain to bounce back and prove that it was just a bad day in the office for him, but he has made a number of changes to his team and Chamberlain has to show he can produce much better than he did in his loss to Okolie.
Luke Watkins was also beaten by Okolie but that came in a Three Round destruction and he really did look out of his depth that day. I don't know how much of that was down to the pressure of the day and whether Watkins just froze in the moment, but another defeat like that would likely mean he is facing a really road to travel to get back to where he is on Saturday.
It does feel like Watkins will have the edge in power, but Chamberlain is the better boxer and I would expect his height and reach to be a difference maker. Chamberlain showed he can smother work of the big hitters as he did against Okolie, but he has to show he has some pop to earn the respect of those fighters if he is going to progress in his career.
I think Chamberlain will want to show he has some power of his own and he did have three straight stoppages before the defeat to Okolie. He should want to impress after helping stink out the O2 Arena, but ultimately the key for Chamberlain is to win the fight and get back to the positive feelings that will bring.
It feels like Watkins will be the bigger puncher in the fight, but I expect Chamberlain to control him much better than he could against the taller and rangier Okolie. In a Ten Rounder I think Chamberlain will win 8-2 in Rounds and he can walk away with a Unanimous Decision.
Ted Cheeseman vs Asinia Byfield
There is a full card at the Copper Box Arena in London on Saturday evening, but the fight that might have the most attention on it comes from the Light Middleweight Division.
Ted Cheeseman is the more well known of the two fighters, but Asinia Byfield seems to have gotten under his skin and that could see the two mix it up.
Both have been promising an early night for the other, but I don't think Byfield is going to want to be drawn into a war with a big puncher like Cheeseman.
Instead I think Byfield will try and box and make things as awkward as possible for Cheeseman while putting some Rounds in the bank. Irritating Cheeseman may be a tactic to get the favourite to push forward and leave himself open to the big counter shots, but I don't think an aggressive Cheeseman will mind getting on the front foot as that is where he can do his best work.
I expect Cheeseman to work the body early and just get Byfield to slow down and I do wonder of the year out of the ring is going to hurt Byfield here. In that time Cheeseman has picked up three wins and Byfield did miss the weight in the first instance which may also suggest he is going to just have a few physical issues in this one.
If he is feeling tight at the weight the body shots will do more than just slow Byfield down and I do think Cheeseman has the time in the Twelve Rounds to break down his opponent and earn the stoppage. Only three of his last five fights have been stoppages (another ended early but was a Disqualification), but I won't hold anything against Cheeseman for failing to stop the tough veteran Carson Jones.
I am not sure Byfield is going to be able to stand up to the likely onslaught he will face over the course of this fight and I think Cheeseman will slow him down early before getting a lot more success as the fight wears on. With a few extra Rounds to find the stoppage, I think Cheeseman gets this done inside the distance.
Ryan Doyle vs Jordan Gill
There has been some real talk about the talented Jordan Gill and what he is going to be able to achieve in the sport, but he is facing a real test of those credentials when he faces Ryan Doyle for the Commonwealth Featherweight Title.
The last time we saw Ryan Doyle he was stopping the previously unbeaten Reece Bellotti back in June and that was a great fight to watch. Doyle was very impressive in the victory and fully deserved the stoppage when it came so Gill will have to be wary of the obvious power that is going to come at it.
Jordan Gill is a boxer and there are big things expected of him and he would expect to guide away from the Doyle power and work his way to a points win with both fighters going the Twelve Rounds for the first time.
You can't deny this is a step up for Gill and there will be some pressure with the expectation that surrounds him, but I think he will thrive in it.
He doesn't look to have the power to become the third fighter to stop Doyle but I think Gill will weather the early storm and then box his way to a 116-112 kind of decision.
Kubrat Pulev vs Hughie Fury
In another dimension Kubrat Pulev would have fought for the World Title against Anthony Joshua in October 2017.
One year later he is trying to get back into a mandatory position when he takes on Hughie Fury in a final eliminator in Bulgaria.
This fight is being criminally ignored by many of the leading sports sites in the United Kingdom with the Tyson Fury fight the only Fury the media seem to be interested at the moment. Hughie won't worry about that and will admit that Tyson's shot at WBC kingpin Deontay Wilder is a bigger fight, but this can set Hughie Fury up for a big night or two in 2019.
Last year he came up short against Joseph Parker in a controversial fight and Fury has admitted he learned a lot from it. If he had won perhaps he would have been having the big paydays against Joshua and Dillian Whyte that Parker had, but I also think Hughie has more belief than the New Zealander that he should be a World Champion.
Win this fight and there is every chance we could see a Joshua vs Fury fight in 2019 even if it is perhaps not the one the majority of fans would want to see.
Going on the road to win a fight is not easy, but the Fury camp have plenty of experience doing that and I do think Hughie may be facing Kubrat Pulev at the right time.
All credit has to be given to the Bulgarian for the career he has had, but he has been out of the ring for almost eighteen months and at 37 years old that can be tough for any boxer. This is also just his sixth fight since his World Title shot against Wladimir Klitschko and Pulev needed a Split Decision to beat Dereck Chisora while also having a Unanimous Decision over Kevin Johnson in April 2017.
Hughie Fury was perhaps not as active as he should have been against Parker in his defeat to the Kiwi, but I expect he will let his hands go a little more in this one. He looked much more aggressive against Sam Sexton when destroying him for the British Title, but I expect a little more caution in this one against a former World Title challenger.
I think Fury can do it though against a veteran who I think has to be on the slide in his career. As long as he isn't looking to just move but actually countering and picking his spots to get on the front foot, I think even the home judges will find it hard to avoid giving Fury the Decision and perhaps set up a big fight with Anthony Joshua in the next twelve months.
Regis Prograis vs Terry Flanagan
The World Boxing Super Series Season Two continues on Saturday and the latest stop is in New Orleans where home fighter Regis Prograis is the favourite to win the Light Welterweight tournament that has been put together.
Personally I am leaning towards Josh Taylor to become a star over the next twelve months, but Prograis has to be the favourite to reach the Final from the top half of the draw.
He faces Manchester's Terry Flanagan who lost his first professional fight in June to Maurice Hooker as he moved up from Lightweight to chase bigger fights. Flanagan has a decent reputation but there is a question of whether his level of competition has really been up to the standard you would have expected of someone who had won 33 fights in a row before the upset defeat to Hooker in a Split Decision.
Maurice Hooker was the right winner that day and it may be a surprise to see Flanagan go straight into this tournament off a loss. This is also a considerable step up for him even if Regis Prograis has yet to show he really is someone as good as he has looked.
Ultimately that will only be shown up if Prograis can win this tournament and beat some of the big names in the Division. There is clearly some pop that Prograis hits with and that has to be a worry for Flanagan who has to be considered as someone who will try and box his way through the Rounds.
Fighting out of the southpaw stance will mean Flanagan can give Prograis something to think about, but the home town hero should eventually start producing the pressure and power to break down the Englishman.
Prograis did destroy Julius Indongo in Two Rounds which is a concern for Flanagan, but I think the latter is a little younger and should be able to battle through some early awkward moments. However I don't think Flanagan is going to be able to hold off Prograis who has never heard the bell for the Ninth Round.
It might be disrespectful to Flanagan but I think backing Prograis to get this done somewhere between the Fourth and Sixth Round is where I would go with this fight. Much will depend on how durable Flanagan is, but he is up in weight compared with the majority of his career and Prograis looks like he punches very hard for the Light Welterweights and will likely come out firing from the First Round.
The Number 1 Seed in this tournament looks very highly motivated to perform on Saturday and I think he gets this fight done relatively early.
MY PICKS: Isaac Chamberlain by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jordan Gill by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Hughie Fury by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Regis Prograis to Win Between 4-6 @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boxing 2018 Update: 31-54, + 16.44 Units (133 Units Staked, + 12.36% Yield)
Boxing 2018 Update: 31-54, + 16.44 Units (133 Units Staked, + 12.36% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks 2018 (October 27-29)
Another round of Premier League games are set to be played this weekend beginning on Saturday and going through until Monday evening.
The ten games are split up with six matches being played on Saturday, three on Sunday and the final League game of the weekend moved to Monday because Wembley Stadium is being used by the NFL on Sunday.
It's actually irritating as it meant Manchester United's home game with Everton had to be moved into the Sunday slot that should have been Tottenham Hotspur versus Manchester City before it was announced that new White Hart Lane is far from ready to host Premier League Football.
Brighton v Wolves Pick: I think both managers will be very pleased with the way their Brighton and Wolves players have been playing and that despite Wolves going down to an upset loss in their last Premier League game.
Regardless of that result, Nuno Espirito Santo will likely keep faith with the starting eleven who have been much better than they were last weekend. He will be demanding a response though, even though Wolves are not going to have things all their own way at the Amex Stadium.
Chris Hughton didn't show he was feeling any pressure as manager of Brighton, but he had to be a little concerned with a run that had seen his team win just 2 of their last 18 games in all competitions. The wins over West Ham United and Newcastle United have eased the concerns Hughton may have had, but the manager will be the first to admit there is still more his team can offer.
It may be difficult against a resolute Wolves team who have been tough to breach all season. That task becomes all the tougher without Glenn Murray who shouldn't be risked after being knocked out cold in the 0-1 win at St James' Park last weekend.
Pascal Gross could be back to provide a creative spark for the home team, but Brighton have not been blessed with a lot of goals and it will be very hard for them to win this game as far as I am concerned.
Wolves have created more chances than Brighton in their recent games, but they are still lacking that little bit of composure you would want from the forward players. I also think Brighton will test the rearguard in front of their own fans, but the slight edge has to be given to Wolves who have produced big results after their previous defeats this season.
The away team have scored in their last 4 games on their travels and I do think one goal could be enough to win this one. With the chances Brighton have allowed teams to create against them there is every opportunity for Wolves to score two or more goals for the first time away from home in the Premier League too.
Murray's absence could be the key and I will back Wolves on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection.
Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- last week was a tough one for Wolves, but you can't sleep on the tactics which makes clean sheets and assists a real possibility from a wing back.
Alternative: Jonny- I am sticking with Wolves this week and I would say either wing back is potentially worth selecting.
Fulham v Bournemouth Pick: Fulham fans and the owners of the club will always be grateful for what Slavisa Jokanovic has done for the club in bringing them back to the Premier League, but that doesn't mean they are going to wait too long to make a change in the managerial office if they feel that is what they need to do.
There is pressure on Jokanovic to turn things around for Fulham who have slipped into the bottom three after losing 3 straight Premier League games. It isn't just the losses that will have people questioning the manager, but the naive tactics have left Fulham exposed defensively and it is no surprise they have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 3 Premier League games.
Even the defeats to Everton and Arsenal could be forgiven, but Fulham blowing a 0-1 lead to lose 4-2 at goal-shy Cardiff City is a really concerning result.
Returning home should make Fulham feel better, but they were beaten 1-5 by Arsenal in their last game at Craven Cottage. Now they have to face a Bournemouth team who will look to get on the front foot and cause more problems for Fulham and it will be very difficult for the home team to contain their visitors.
Bournemouth may not have scored last weekend, but they did hammer Watford 0-4 in their last away game and they made a very fast start that day. The squad looks fit and healthy and they have had a week to recharge ahead of this fixture which makes Bournemouth even more dangerous.
However Eddie Howe's men are far from convincing at the back themselves and Fulham do play an attacking style that they do feel will reap rewards in the weeks ahead. Fulham have definitely looked more threatening going forward when they are playing at Craven Cottage and that should make this an entertaining game.
The layers recognise the chance of that happening so they have shortened the price on seeing three or more goals in this one. However I still think it could be worth picking seeing at least four goals scored in this fixture.
3 of the last 4 Fulham games have featured that number of goals and 4 of the last 6 Bournemouth games have done the same. With the teams likely wanting to get forward in this one, an early goal could really spark the fixture and I will back seeing four or more goals shared out.
Fantasy Star: Aleksandar Mitrovic- it sounds like Slavisa Jokanovic has two games to save his job, but he could do that if his striker can take the inevitable chances that should come his way.
Alternative: Joshua King- there are a number of attackers who could be worth a play but you can't discount how poor Fulham have been at the back so picking a Bournemouth forward isn't a bad shout.
Liverpool v Cardiff City Pick: There has been some criticism of the Liverpool performances over the last few weeks but I do think this is still a team capable of putting the weaker teams to the sword as they showed in their comfortable Champions League win during the week.
The failure to beat Chelsea (twice), Napoli or Manchester City would have just tempered some of the increasing expectations around Liverpool, but if they continue beating those teams they should then they will be there or thereabouts at the end of the season.
One of those clubs visit Anfield on Saturday and it will be very difficult for Cardiff City to contain this team whose front three all scored on Wednesday.
Neil Warnock is going to demand hard work and defensive organisation from his team to try and stifle Liverpool and they did leave Tottenham Hotspur with a 1-0 defeat earlier in the month. Cardiff City created some decent chances at Wembley Stadium and they scored when visiting Chelsea, but the 4-1 loss at Stamford Bridge is closer to what I would expect here.
Liverpool have scored at least three goals in over half of their 7 games at Anfield this season and it is a daunting test for Cardiff City who have conceded four or more goals against Chelsea and Manchester City. Arsenal managed three in Wales and I think Warnock may end up writing this off at the end of ninety minutes.
Cardiff City's chances of survival in the Premier League don't rest on getting results at grounds like this and I think it will be a containing effort for as long as possible for them. However Liverpool could go on a real goal-scoring run with the fixtures they have coming up and I think they win this one by a comfortable margin on the day.
Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- three goals in the last seven days suggests the forward is back to his best.
Alternative: Sadio Mane- also scored during the week against Crvena Zvezda and should have chances against a Cardiff City team who have conceded four at Chelsea and five at home against Manchester City.
Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: I don't think anyone can be surprised that the layers are expecting a low-scoring Southampton win when these teams meet in the Premier League on Saturday, but I am going to go against the statistics here.
I am not blind to the fact that both Southampton and Newcastle United have struggled for goals all season as they have both scored just 6 goals in 9 Premier League games. However the chances have been coming in recent games for Newcastle United and Southampton have also looked close to beginning to find a consistent goal-scoring threat.
The home team certainly have the kind of players you would expect to make an impact on the scoreboard with Charlie Austin and Danny Ings decent enough at this level. That is more than can be said for Newcastle United, but they just needed to be a little more clinical and they would have gotten something out of the game against Brighton last week.
There will be some tension around the players in what is considered a big game for both clubs and I do worry that could stifle the play, but these clubs have tended to match up well with one another. Goals have flowed when Southampton and Newcastle United have met and I do think both Mark Hughes and Rafa Benitez will want their teams to get forward and pick up points in what they will perceive to be a winnable game.
Southampton home games have seen the side get forward and create chances, but they have also looked vulnerable defensively. It is difficult to believe in two teams who have struggled to score goals as much as these two have, but the chances have been there and that makes seeing three goals or more a very big price here.
Fantasy Star: Danny Ings- Southampton are desperate for goals but this is the player who looks most likely to provide that.
Alternative: Kenedy- Newcastle United have been a little unfortunate in their last couple of games, but Kenedy has scored in one of those and hit the bar in the other. If they are going to score, Kenedy could be in the midst of anything good that happens for The Magpies.
Watford v Huddersfield Town Pick: At the start of the season you have to think both Javi Gracia and David Wagner would have targeted matches like this one as being all-important to ensure Watford and Huddersfield Town do not get relegated from the Premier League.
The expectation may have increased at Watford thanks to a very strong start to the Premier Leagues season, but Gracia is looking to instil some consistency into his team. They've had a run of 5 games with lots of wins and then 5 games without a victory already this season, but the win over Wolves last weekend may spark another good run.
Watford are a team who have looked very dangerous going forward in the first three months of the season and they will believe they can expose what has been a vulnerable Huddersfield Town team.
However you can't take anything for granted in this fixture because Huddersfield Town have found a little more success away from home than they have at the John Smith's Stadium. The Terriers have scored in all 4 away games in the Premier League this season which includes visits to Manchester City, Everton and Leicester City so Watford will have to be fully concentrated.
Huddersfield Town have also scored first in their last couple of away games, while Watford have lost back to back games at Vicarage Road to Manchester United and Bournemouth.
It certainly suggests the visitors can play their part here, but I do like the way Watford have been playing even through their run without a victory. They have created plenty of chances and I think Watford will be focused by the way they were embarrassed by Huddersfield Town here last season.
Backing the home team to win in a game featuring two or more goals looks an attractive enough way to approach this fixture.
Fantasy Star: Roberto Pereyra- he had not scored since August, but Roberto Pereyra was back on the scoresheet last week and is a big threat for Watford from set pieces too.
Alternative: Troy Deeney- the striker should be back to lead the line for Watford and he may not have a better opponent to end his Premier League goal drought.
Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: The live game on Saturday afternoon from the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium and both Leicester City and West Ham United have to feel they are capable of producing the football to win.
It might be surprising to hear that considering both have lost back to back Premier League games either side of the international break but both Leicester City and West Ham United have offered enough encouragement in those losses to believe they can get back to winning ways sooner rather than later.
The injury to Andriy Yarmolenko is a blow for West Ham United and I think that is going to just take away some of the attacking creativity in the side. With the other injuries in the squad it could mean West Ham United are slightly short of attacking players this weekend and the defence is not that reliable.
Leicester City have to be a little more clinical when the chances come their way but they are creating enough to think they can get the better of their visitors on Saturday afternoon.
It was West Ham United who won the corresponding fixture last season, but I think Leicester City have a little more about them all around when they meet here on Saturday. I imagine it will be a tight game with chances for both teams, but I will look for Leicester City to be the slightly more clinical when those chances are presented and they can win this game.
Backing them on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.
Fantasy Star: James Maddison- the playmaker has been hugely influential for Leicester City and will likely be on penalty duty if Jamie Vardy's rumoured absence is confirmed.
Alternative: Kelechi Iheanacho- he might only have scored one goal this season in the Premier League, but Kelechi Iheanacho may be leading the line for The Foxes without Vardy.
Burnley v Chelsea Pick: This is not a live game on Sunday but the game has been scheduled for this day as Chelsea have been involved in Europa League action on Thursday.
With Eden Hazard potentially absent the trip to Turf Moor looks a little more difficult for Chelsea considering how influential the Belgian attacker has been for the club all season.
However I do think Maurizio Sarri's tactics will continue to put Chelsea on the front foot and they do have enough talent to break down a Burnley team who have not been as effective defensively as they were twelve months ago. Teams are not just creating chances against Burnley, but they are creating big chances and this Chelsea team have been scoring plenty of goals throughout the course of the season.
Burnley are well rested which makes them dangerous, but Chelsea were not overly taxed when they beat BATE Borisov at home on Thursday evening. The home team have not been a deep attacking threat and will have to rely on free kicks and corners to try and break down this Chelsea defence which has looked decent enough this season.
It worked for BATE Borisov, but I think this is a tough ask for Burnley who have already been beaten comfortably by Watford and Manchester United at Turf Moor. The home side may be unbeaten in 2 in front of their own fans, but are still not convincing and I will back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day with or without Eden Hazard.
Fantasy Star: Willian- doubts surround Eden Hazard and his availability for this fixture which means most things could go through Willian.
Alternative: Marcos Alonso- he was rested on Thursday and the left back has continued to be a threat going forward in the new formation set up by Maurizio Sarri. A clean sheet bonus could also be available against a goal-shy Burnley team.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: The first of two live televised games on Sunday comes from South London as Arsenal look to continue producing the clinical football that has been a major factor in their 11 game winning run.
Defensively there remain some big questions that have yet to be answered and I think we are going to know a lot more about Arsenal in the coming six weeks when they face some of the other big six clubs.
At the end of the day they still need to be respected for the wins they have been producing and some of the football has been very pleasing on the eye. The Gunners managed to rest some key names in the Europa League on Thursday and they should be ready to go when they visit a goal-shy Crystal Palace team are beginning to look desperate for a win.
The 2-0 defeat at Everton was a bitter pill for Roy Hodgson to swallow last Sunday especially as Crystal Palace missed a penalty at 0-0 and were level going into the final five minutes. A lack of goals is beginning to be a real worry for Crystal Palace and they are not in the kind of form they would want to take into the upcoming fixtures which look very difficult on paper.
Crystal Palace facing four Premier League games in a row against the top six from last season and having scored the second fewest goals in the Premier League is a tough place to begin to produce results in those games. With Arsenal scoring at least twice in every away Premier League game, I am struggling to see how Crystal Palace win this fixture.
Arsenal have won on 4 of their last 5 visits to Selhurst Park and they have scored plenty of goals in those trips. I expect that to continue this weekend and will back The Gunners to have too many goals for Crystal Palace and they can win a game featuring two or more goals.
Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- he looks to be the lead striker for Arsenal who have been scoring plenty of goals.
Alternative: Mesut Ozil- another who was rested in the Europa League and is fresh off a hugely influential performance in the 3-1 win over Leicester City.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was lot of huff and puff from Manchester United in the second half of their 0-1 defeat to Juventus during the week, but it was an eye-opening experience for everyone watching. If there was any doubt about how far away Manchester United are from the elite of European Football then there isn't any more.
Juventus dominated the first half and could have won by a wide margin if they saw fit.
Jose Mourinho continues to place the blame anywhere but at his own door and there is a pressure to get a response from his players when they host Everton on Sunday. Anything less than the three points and even the top four looks like it could be a long shot for the club which is a sharp decline from where they finished in the 2017/18 season.
At least Manchester United have played better in their last couple of Premier League games, but the worry is that the first half has been allowed to drift before the players produce a much stronger first half. Manchester United have now been trailing at half time in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and the only exception was the goalless draw with Valencia.
Both Newcastle United and Juventus have led at half time in the last couple of games at Old Trafford which is something that shouldn't be lost on Marco Silva and his Everton team.
Everton's results have been much stronger at home, but they gave Arsenal plenty to think about in a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates Stadium when finishing let them down. They will offer a threat in this one going forward and the Manchester United defence has been far from watertight, while Everton have scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Premier League games this season.
Both teams scoring is a really high possibility here when you consider it would have been a winner in 3 of the 4 home Manchester United games and 3 of the 4 Everton away games. However it may be a better play to back at least three goals to be shared out as neither team is likely to sit back on a 1-1 until very late in the game when the visitors may believe that is a positive result.
I think Manchester United will find a way to win this fixture, but they are hard to trust at the moment and any victory will need to come in a game that features goals considering the defensive mishaps. Everton have not exactly looked strong at the back considering they have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games too and backing goals looks the best way to go about this.
Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- in goal scoring form and likely to begin out on the left again this weekend.
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- Manchester United are far from defensively sound and the Icelandic midfielder has four goals from his last five League appearances. Has scored at Old Trafford before and a threat from set pieces.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: The postponed move into new White Hart Lane meant there was a knock on effect for fans not just of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, but also on Everton and Manchester United. A fixture that had been picked for Saturday television coverage had to move into the vacant spot left by Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City who had to move their original Sunday game to Monday evening.
That is because Wembley Stadium is being used on Sunday for the last NFL game to be played in London in the 2018 season.
It might make the conditions tougher for the players on Monday because the pitch can be cut up in NFL games and twenty-four hours doesn't seem enough time to restore it to pristine condition. At least it won't be raining though so I don't anticipate either manager having too many complaints about the playing surface even if the situation is not ideal.
Tottenham Hotspur certainly feel the delay to the move to the new Stadium is having an effect on their performances and both Liverpool and Barcelona have won here handily already this season. With the injuries in the Tottenham Hotspur squad, Manchester City are right to be favoured to match those wins, although they look significantly shorter than I would have imagined.
It does say a lot about where these two teams stand at the moment even in light of Tottenham Hotspur winning 4 straight Premier League games. Those have come against Brighton, Cardiff City, Huddersfield Town and West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have been far from convincing in any of those and now take a big step up in level of competition.
When that has happened this season Tottenham Hotspur have lost to Liverpool and Barcelona. Both of those teams scored at least two goals, but Liverpool had enough chances to get closer to the four that Barcelona managed against Spurs.
Manchester City may have dropped four points away from home, but they could easily have won both games at Wolves and Liverpool. The performances have been good and Manchester City have matched up very well with Tottenham Hotspur having beaten them twice last season and scoring seven goals combined in those wins.
On current form I can't see anything but a Manchester City win but they are short enough.
With the goals in the side and the amount of chances Tottenham Hotspur are giving up without leader Jan Vertonghen at centre half I think Manchester City win a game that features at least two goals. I would expect Manchester City to match the total Liverpool and Barcelona have both reached and I just don't think Tottenham Hotspur have the same level of belief when they have faced the top clubs so far this season.
Manchester City look too quick, too creative and in stronger form of the two teams and I will back the defending Champions to record another victory over Spurs.
Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- scored three times against Tottenham Hotspur last season and Manchester City will likely look to his pace to break down the Spurs backline here.
Alternative: Benjamin Mendy- his ability to get forward and earn assists can't be ignored. Manchester City have also earned clean sheets at Arsenal and Liverpool this season.
MY PICKS: Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
October Update: 25-27-1, - 1.93 Units (104 Units Staked, - 1.86% Yield)
The ten games are split up with six matches being played on Saturday, three on Sunday and the final League game of the weekend moved to Monday because Wembley Stadium is being used by the NFL on Sunday.
It's actually irritating as it meant Manchester United's home game with Everton had to be moved into the Sunday slot that should have been Tottenham Hotspur versus Manchester City before it was announced that new White Hart Lane is far from ready to host Premier League Football.
Brighton v Wolves Pick: I think both managers will be very pleased with the way their Brighton and Wolves players have been playing and that despite Wolves going down to an upset loss in their last Premier League game.
Regardless of that result, Nuno Espirito Santo will likely keep faith with the starting eleven who have been much better than they were last weekend. He will be demanding a response though, even though Wolves are not going to have things all their own way at the Amex Stadium.
Chris Hughton didn't show he was feeling any pressure as manager of Brighton, but he had to be a little concerned with a run that had seen his team win just 2 of their last 18 games in all competitions. The wins over West Ham United and Newcastle United have eased the concerns Hughton may have had, but the manager will be the first to admit there is still more his team can offer.
It may be difficult against a resolute Wolves team who have been tough to breach all season. That task becomes all the tougher without Glenn Murray who shouldn't be risked after being knocked out cold in the 0-1 win at St James' Park last weekend.
Pascal Gross could be back to provide a creative spark for the home team, but Brighton have not been blessed with a lot of goals and it will be very hard for them to win this game as far as I am concerned.
Wolves have created more chances than Brighton in their recent games, but they are still lacking that little bit of composure you would want from the forward players. I also think Brighton will test the rearguard in front of their own fans, but the slight edge has to be given to Wolves who have produced big results after their previous defeats this season.
The away team have scored in their last 4 games on their travels and I do think one goal could be enough to win this one. With the chances Brighton have allowed teams to create against them there is every opportunity for Wolves to score two or more goals for the first time away from home in the Premier League too.
Murray's absence could be the key and I will back Wolves on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection.
Fantasy Star: Matt Doherty- last week was a tough one for Wolves, but you can't sleep on the tactics which makes clean sheets and assists a real possibility from a wing back.
Alternative: Jonny- I am sticking with Wolves this week and I would say either wing back is potentially worth selecting.
Fulham v Bournemouth Pick: Fulham fans and the owners of the club will always be grateful for what Slavisa Jokanovic has done for the club in bringing them back to the Premier League, but that doesn't mean they are going to wait too long to make a change in the managerial office if they feel that is what they need to do.
There is pressure on Jokanovic to turn things around for Fulham who have slipped into the bottom three after losing 3 straight Premier League games. It isn't just the losses that will have people questioning the manager, but the naive tactics have left Fulham exposed defensively and it is no surprise they have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last 3 Premier League games.
Even the defeats to Everton and Arsenal could be forgiven, but Fulham blowing a 0-1 lead to lose 4-2 at goal-shy Cardiff City is a really concerning result.
Returning home should make Fulham feel better, but they were beaten 1-5 by Arsenal in their last game at Craven Cottage. Now they have to face a Bournemouth team who will look to get on the front foot and cause more problems for Fulham and it will be very difficult for the home team to contain their visitors.
Bournemouth may not have scored last weekend, but they did hammer Watford 0-4 in their last away game and they made a very fast start that day. The squad looks fit and healthy and they have had a week to recharge ahead of this fixture which makes Bournemouth even more dangerous.
However Eddie Howe's men are far from convincing at the back themselves and Fulham do play an attacking style that they do feel will reap rewards in the weeks ahead. Fulham have definitely looked more threatening going forward when they are playing at Craven Cottage and that should make this an entertaining game.
The layers recognise the chance of that happening so they have shortened the price on seeing three or more goals in this one. However I still think it could be worth picking seeing at least four goals scored in this fixture.
3 of the last 4 Fulham games have featured that number of goals and 4 of the last 6 Bournemouth games have done the same. With the teams likely wanting to get forward in this one, an early goal could really spark the fixture and I will back seeing four or more goals shared out.
Fantasy Star: Aleksandar Mitrovic- it sounds like Slavisa Jokanovic has two games to save his job, but he could do that if his striker can take the inevitable chances that should come his way.
Alternative: Joshua King- there are a number of attackers who could be worth a play but you can't discount how poor Fulham have been at the back so picking a Bournemouth forward isn't a bad shout.
Liverpool v Cardiff City Pick: There has been some criticism of the Liverpool performances over the last few weeks but I do think this is still a team capable of putting the weaker teams to the sword as they showed in their comfortable Champions League win during the week.
The failure to beat Chelsea (twice), Napoli or Manchester City would have just tempered some of the increasing expectations around Liverpool, but if they continue beating those teams they should then they will be there or thereabouts at the end of the season.
One of those clubs visit Anfield on Saturday and it will be very difficult for Cardiff City to contain this team whose front three all scored on Wednesday.
Neil Warnock is going to demand hard work and defensive organisation from his team to try and stifle Liverpool and they did leave Tottenham Hotspur with a 1-0 defeat earlier in the month. Cardiff City created some decent chances at Wembley Stadium and they scored when visiting Chelsea, but the 4-1 loss at Stamford Bridge is closer to what I would expect here.
Liverpool have scored at least three goals in over half of their 7 games at Anfield this season and it is a daunting test for Cardiff City who have conceded four or more goals against Chelsea and Manchester City. Arsenal managed three in Wales and I think Warnock may end up writing this off at the end of ninety minutes.
Cardiff City's chances of survival in the Premier League don't rest on getting results at grounds like this and I think it will be a containing effort for as long as possible for them. However Liverpool could go on a real goal-scoring run with the fixtures they have coming up and I think they win this one by a comfortable margin on the day.
Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- three goals in the last seven days suggests the forward is back to his best.
Alternative: Sadio Mane- also scored during the week against Crvena Zvezda and should have chances against a Cardiff City team who have conceded four at Chelsea and five at home against Manchester City.
Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: I don't think anyone can be surprised that the layers are expecting a low-scoring Southampton win when these teams meet in the Premier League on Saturday, but I am going to go against the statistics here.
I am not blind to the fact that both Southampton and Newcastle United have struggled for goals all season as they have both scored just 6 goals in 9 Premier League games. However the chances have been coming in recent games for Newcastle United and Southampton have also looked close to beginning to find a consistent goal-scoring threat.
The home team certainly have the kind of players you would expect to make an impact on the scoreboard with Charlie Austin and Danny Ings decent enough at this level. That is more than can be said for Newcastle United, but they just needed to be a little more clinical and they would have gotten something out of the game against Brighton last week.
There will be some tension around the players in what is considered a big game for both clubs and I do worry that could stifle the play, but these clubs have tended to match up well with one another. Goals have flowed when Southampton and Newcastle United have met and I do think both Mark Hughes and Rafa Benitez will want their teams to get forward and pick up points in what they will perceive to be a winnable game.
Southampton home games have seen the side get forward and create chances, but they have also looked vulnerable defensively. It is difficult to believe in two teams who have struggled to score goals as much as these two have, but the chances have been there and that makes seeing three goals or more a very big price here.
Fantasy Star: Danny Ings- Southampton are desperate for goals but this is the player who looks most likely to provide that.
Alternative: Kenedy- Newcastle United have been a little unfortunate in their last couple of games, but Kenedy has scored in one of those and hit the bar in the other. If they are going to score, Kenedy could be in the midst of anything good that happens for The Magpies.
Watford v Huddersfield Town Pick: At the start of the season you have to think both Javi Gracia and David Wagner would have targeted matches like this one as being all-important to ensure Watford and Huddersfield Town do not get relegated from the Premier League.
The expectation may have increased at Watford thanks to a very strong start to the Premier Leagues season, but Gracia is looking to instil some consistency into his team. They've had a run of 5 games with lots of wins and then 5 games without a victory already this season, but the win over Wolves last weekend may spark another good run.
Watford are a team who have looked very dangerous going forward in the first three months of the season and they will believe they can expose what has been a vulnerable Huddersfield Town team.
However you can't take anything for granted in this fixture because Huddersfield Town have found a little more success away from home than they have at the John Smith's Stadium. The Terriers have scored in all 4 away games in the Premier League this season which includes visits to Manchester City, Everton and Leicester City so Watford will have to be fully concentrated.
Huddersfield Town have also scored first in their last couple of away games, while Watford have lost back to back games at Vicarage Road to Manchester United and Bournemouth.
It certainly suggests the visitors can play their part here, but I do like the way Watford have been playing even through their run without a victory. They have created plenty of chances and I think Watford will be focused by the way they were embarrassed by Huddersfield Town here last season.
Backing the home team to win in a game featuring two or more goals looks an attractive enough way to approach this fixture.
Fantasy Star: Roberto Pereyra- he had not scored since August, but Roberto Pereyra was back on the scoresheet last week and is a big threat for Watford from set pieces too.
Alternative: Troy Deeney- the striker should be back to lead the line for Watford and he may not have a better opponent to end his Premier League goal drought.
Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: The live game on Saturday afternoon from the Premier League comes from the King Power Stadium and both Leicester City and West Ham United have to feel they are capable of producing the football to win.
It might be surprising to hear that considering both have lost back to back Premier League games either side of the international break but both Leicester City and West Ham United have offered enough encouragement in those losses to believe they can get back to winning ways sooner rather than later.
The injury to Andriy Yarmolenko is a blow for West Ham United and I think that is going to just take away some of the attacking creativity in the side. With the other injuries in the squad it could mean West Ham United are slightly short of attacking players this weekend and the defence is not that reliable.
Leicester City have to be a little more clinical when the chances come their way but they are creating enough to think they can get the better of their visitors on Saturday afternoon.
It was West Ham United who won the corresponding fixture last season, but I think Leicester City have a little more about them all around when they meet here on Saturday. I imagine it will be a tight game with chances for both teams, but I will look for Leicester City to be the slightly more clinical when those chances are presented and they can win this game.
Backing them on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw.
Fantasy Star: James Maddison- the playmaker has been hugely influential for Leicester City and will likely be on penalty duty if Jamie Vardy's rumoured absence is confirmed.
Alternative: Kelechi Iheanacho- he might only have scored one goal this season in the Premier League, but Kelechi Iheanacho may be leading the line for The Foxes without Vardy.
Burnley v Chelsea Pick: This is not a live game on Sunday but the game has been scheduled for this day as Chelsea have been involved in Europa League action on Thursday.
With Eden Hazard potentially absent the trip to Turf Moor looks a little more difficult for Chelsea considering how influential the Belgian attacker has been for the club all season.
However I do think Maurizio Sarri's tactics will continue to put Chelsea on the front foot and they do have enough talent to break down a Burnley team who have not been as effective defensively as they were twelve months ago. Teams are not just creating chances against Burnley, but they are creating big chances and this Chelsea team have been scoring plenty of goals throughout the course of the season.
Burnley are well rested which makes them dangerous, but Chelsea were not overly taxed when they beat BATE Borisov at home on Thursday evening. The home team have not been a deep attacking threat and will have to rely on free kicks and corners to try and break down this Chelsea defence which has looked decent enough this season.
It worked for BATE Borisov, but I think this is a tough ask for Burnley who have already been beaten comfortably by Watford and Manchester United at Turf Moor. The home side may be unbeaten in 2 in front of their own fans, but are still not convincing and I will back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day with or without Eden Hazard.
Fantasy Star: Willian- doubts surround Eden Hazard and his availability for this fixture which means most things could go through Willian.
Alternative: Marcos Alonso- he was rested on Thursday and the left back has continued to be a threat going forward in the new formation set up by Maurizio Sarri. A clean sheet bonus could also be available against a goal-shy Burnley team.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal Pick: The first of two live televised games on Sunday comes from South London as Arsenal look to continue producing the clinical football that has been a major factor in their 11 game winning run.
Defensively there remain some big questions that have yet to be answered and I think we are going to know a lot more about Arsenal in the coming six weeks when they face some of the other big six clubs.
At the end of the day they still need to be respected for the wins they have been producing and some of the football has been very pleasing on the eye. The Gunners managed to rest some key names in the Europa League on Thursday and they should be ready to go when they visit a goal-shy Crystal Palace team are beginning to look desperate for a win.
The 2-0 defeat at Everton was a bitter pill for Roy Hodgson to swallow last Sunday especially as Crystal Palace missed a penalty at 0-0 and were level going into the final five minutes. A lack of goals is beginning to be a real worry for Crystal Palace and they are not in the kind of form they would want to take into the upcoming fixtures which look very difficult on paper.
Crystal Palace facing four Premier League games in a row against the top six from last season and having scored the second fewest goals in the Premier League is a tough place to begin to produce results in those games. With Arsenal scoring at least twice in every away Premier League game, I am struggling to see how Crystal Palace win this fixture.
Arsenal have won on 4 of their last 5 visits to Selhurst Park and they have scored plenty of goals in those trips. I expect that to continue this weekend and will back The Gunners to have too many goals for Crystal Palace and they can win a game featuring two or more goals.
Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- he looks to be the lead striker for Arsenal who have been scoring plenty of goals.
Alternative: Mesut Ozil- another who was rested in the Europa League and is fresh off a hugely influential performance in the 3-1 win over Leicester City.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was lot of huff and puff from Manchester United in the second half of their 0-1 defeat to Juventus during the week, but it was an eye-opening experience for everyone watching. If there was any doubt about how far away Manchester United are from the elite of European Football then there isn't any more.
Juventus dominated the first half and could have won by a wide margin if they saw fit.
Jose Mourinho continues to place the blame anywhere but at his own door and there is a pressure to get a response from his players when they host Everton on Sunday. Anything less than the three points and even the top four looks like it could be a long shot for the club which is a sharp decline from where they finished in the 2017/18 season.
At least Manchester United have played better in their last couple of Premier League games, but the worry is that the first half has been allowed to drift before the players produce a much stronger first half. Manchester United have now been trailing at half time in 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and the only exception was the goalless draw with Valencia.
Both Newcastle United and Juventus have led at half time in the last couple of games at Old Trafford which is something that shouldn't be lost on Marco Silva and his Everton team.
Everton's results have been much stronger at home, but they gave Arsenal plenty to think about in a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates Stadium when finishing let them down. They will offer a threat in this one going forward and the Manchester United defence has been far from watertight, while Everton have scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Premier League games this season.
Both teams scoring is a really high possibility here when you consider it would have been a winner in 3 of the 4 home Manchester United games and 3 of the 4 Everton away games. However it may be a better play to back at least three goals to be shared out as neither team is likely to sit back on a 1-1 until very late in the game when the visitors may believe that is a positive result.
I think Manchester United will find a way to win this fixture, but they are hard to trust at the moment and any victory will need to come in a game that features goals considering the defensive mishaps. Everton have not exactly looked strong at the back considering they have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games too and backing goals looks the best way to go about this.
Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- in goal scoring form and likely to begin out on the left again this weekend.
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- Manchester United are far from defensively sound and the Icelandic midfielder has four goals from his last five League appearances. Has scored at Old Trafford before and a threat from set pieces.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: The postponed move into new White Hart Lane meant there was a knock on effect for fans not just of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, but also on Everton and Manchester United. A fixture that had been picked for Saturday television coverage had to move into the vacant spot left by Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City who had to move their original Sunday game to Monday evening.
That is because Wembley Stadium is being used on Sunday for the last NFL game to be played in London in the 2018 season.
It might make the conditions tougher for the players on Monday because the pitch can be cut up in NFL games and twenty-four hours doesn't seem enough time to restore it to pristine condition. At least it won't be raining though so I don't anticipate either manager having too many complaints about the playing surface even if the situation is not ideal.
Tottenham Hotspur certainly feel the delay to the move to the new Stadium is having an effect on their performances and both Liverpool and Barcelona have won here handily already this season. With the injuries in the Tottenham Hotspur squad, Manchester City are right to be favoured to match those wins, although they look significantly shorter than I would have imagined.
It does say a lot about where these two teams stand at the moment even in light of Tottenham Hotspur winning 4 straight Premier League games. Those have come against Brighton, Cardiff City, Huddersfield Town and West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have been far from convincing in any of those and now take a big step up in level of competition.
When that has happened this season Tottenham Hotspur have lost to Liverpool and Barcelona. Both of those teams scored at least two goals, but Liverpool had enough chances to get closer to the four that Barcelona managed against Spurs.
Manchester City may have dropped four points away from home, but they could easily have won both games at Wolves and Liverpool. The performances have been good and Manchester City have matched up very well with Tottenham Hotspur having beaten them twice last season and scoring seven goals combined in those wins.
On current form I can't see anything but a Manchester City win but they are short enough.
With the goals in the side and the amount of chances Tottenham Hotspur are giving up without leader Jan Vertonghen at centre half I think Manchester City win a game that features at least two goals. I would expect Manchester City to match the total Liverpool and Barcelona have both reached and I just don't think Tottenham Hotspur have the same level of belief when they have faced the top clubs so far this season.
Manchester City look too quick, too creative and in stronger form of the two teams and I will back the defending Champions to record another victory over Spurs.
Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- scored three times against Tottenham Hotspur last season and Manchester City will likely look to his pace to break down the Spurs backline here.
Alternative: Benjamin Mendy- his ability to get forward and earn assists can't be ignored. Manchester City have also earned clean sheets at Arsenal and Liverpool this season.
MY PICKS: Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
October Update: 25-27-1, - 1.93 Units (104 Units Staked, - 1.86% Yield)
WTA Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 27th)
The Semi Final of all the tournaments being played this week are going to be played on Saturday.
We are down to the last two days of the WTA Tour for the 2018 season with the WTA Finals concluding the Group Stage and leaving four players standing in Singapore.
The ATP 500 events in Vienna and Basel also have reached the Semi Finals and there are a couple of players looking for vital points to get a little closer to earning a place in London. Only one more big opportunity remains with the ATP Masters event in Paris beginning this weekend so the race for places at the ATP World Tour Finals will go on for a few more days.
Both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have entered the tournament in Paris where the conditions have been changed to be much more similar to those the players will see in London. Both of those players will be in London as long as they get through this week feeling good about their health as neither Nadal or Del Potro will want to go into 2019 with any lingering issues around them.
If they don't feel good then I can imagine a line will be drawn on 2018 in order to get ready for the new season which begins seven weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 14-8, + 12.14 Units (44 Units Staked, + 27.59% Yield)
We are down to the last two days of the WTA Tour for the 2018 season with the WTA Finals concluding the Group Stage and leaving four players standing in Singapore.
The ATP 500 events in Vienna and Basel also have reached the Semi Finals and there are a couple of players looking for vital points to get a little closer to earning a place in London. Only one more big opportunity remains with the ATP Masters event in Paris beginning this weekend so the race for places at the ATP World Tour Finals will go on for a few more days.
Both Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro have entered the tournament in Paris where the conditions have been changed to be much more similar to those the players will see in London. Both of those players will be in London as long as they get through this week feeling good about their health as neither Nadal or Del Potro will want to go into 2019 with any lingering issues around them.
If they don't feel good then I can imagine a line will be drawn on 2018 in order to get ready for the new season which begins seven weeks after the ATP World Tour Finals are completed.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 14-8, + 12.14 Units (44 Units Staked, + 27.59% Yield)
College Football Week 9 Picks 2018 (October 27th)
The regular season in College Football is only a few weeks from a close and that means the Play Off Committee are soon going to release their first set of Rankings to give us an insight into which teams are being considered for the four spots.
Enough teams have fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten to think a one loss team will be able to make it, and I think a Power 5 Conference one loss team would be considered before an unbeaten Champion from the American Athletic Conference which is not good news for the UCF Knights despite the programme finishing unbeaten in 2017 and being unbeaten in 2018 to this point.
Last week the Big Ten lost the chance of having an unbeaten Champion and I think the leading teams to make the Play Offs going into Week 9 have to be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and I would place the winner of the Big Ten just ahead of the Big 12 Champion, although that is a fluid situation.
We will know much better in the days ahead as to what the Committee may be feeling but all of the leading teams have to know there is little room for error. The only team I would suggest could afford one loss and likely to still be selected is the Alabama Crimson Tide who have made the Play Offs even in years when they have not been the SEC Champion.
The Crimson Tide will get through Week 9 unbeaten as they are on a Bye Week anyway, but there is plenty on the line for other teams who are playing.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: All eyes are beginning to turn to the Play Offs with the Committee set to release their first Rankings in the coming days. Neither the Wisconsin Badgers or the Northwestern Wildcats will be expecting to be involved in the discussion having both suffered at least two losses on the season.
Not every team opens the season with the goal of reaching the Play Offs though with the first port of call being getting into the Conference Championship Game and then playing for a title. These two teams are currently leading the way in the Big Ten West with Northwestern 4-1 in Conference play and Wisconsin 3-1.
The Badgers do look in a stronger position having beaten the other 3-1 team in the Division, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and Wisconsin will know another win in Week 9 will mean they are in a commanding position.
There are similarities between the Badgers and the Wildcats and the results they have earned in 2018 with both suffering a defeat to the Michigan Wolverines in the Conference. While Wisconsin were blown out in their game on the road, Northwestern blew a big home led against the Wolverines but the yardage battle was very similar as both teams were outgained by between 161 and 174 yards.
Wisconsin will feel good about the way they match up with the Northwestern Defensive unit and that does give them the edge in this game against a Wildcats team who have been playing well in Big Ten Conference play over the last twelve months.
The Badgers main threat is on the ground and their Offensive Line will feel they can create open lanes for Jonathan Taylor who has had eight 100 yard rushing games in a row. Taylor is going to be playing against a Northwestern Defensive Line who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and there is every chance that Wisconsin will be in third and manageable situations at the worst as long as they can play a clean game.
Being able to run the ball efficiently should mean Wisconsin can run some play-action to take shots down the field as the Wildcats have to play closer to the line of scrimmage and I do think the Badgers move the ball with some consistency through this game.
Northwestern won't be intimidated about facing a Wisconsin Defensive unit which have not played up to the level that they would expect of themselves. However it does feel that the Northwestern strengths are going up against the Badgers strength and that is going to make it tough to make the right calls all the time.
Isaiah Bowser had a career best day running the ball for Northwestern last week and they will need him to pick up from where he left off if they are going to challenge the Badgers. While Wisconsin having given up plenty of chunk plays on the ground, Northwestern have not been able to run the ball with consistency as highlighted by their 2.3 yards per carry number for the 2018 season and that hasn't been improved by Bowser's career day last week.
Clayton Thorson has helped the Wildcats produce some big numbers through the air, but the Wisconsin Secondary have played well. They can get pressure up front which may make things a little more difficult for Thorson although the Quarter Back has played well enough to think he will make some plays from behind Center.
However it may be difficult to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his season and Wisconsin having extra possessions should be enough to earn the edge in this Big Ten West game. Both teams have some positive trends that can be factored into the game, but the Badgers look like they can move the ball with a little more consistency and Northwestern have a mixed record as the home underdog against the spread.
It's always tough to cover on the road, but Wisconsin are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen road games and I will back the Badgers to move ahead of their chasing rivals in the Big Ten West Division.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: This is another Big Ten Conference game although the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are in different Divisions. A slow start is the reason the Boilermakers are 4-3 on the season, but they are playing with momentum having come from 0-3 in 2018 to this position which includes beating the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 and that has improved their position to 3-1 in the Big Ten.
There is an outside chance for Purdue to make a run for a spot in the Championship Game and their destiny will be in their own hands if Northwestern for to suffer a second Conference defeat. That could potentially happen this week, but Purdue have to focus on their own matters as they face another tough test from the Big Ten East Division.
Last week they knocked off Ohio State, but that was at home and Purdue have to find the same energy when they visit Spartan Stadium. It is a tough spot for the Michigan State Spartans who have played Penn State and rivals Michigan in their last two games and they are coming off a dominant home loss to the Wolverines in Week 8.
At 2-2 in the Conference it looks like Michigan State won't be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game but they will be looking to take another step towards becoming Bowl eligible with a win on Saturday. Running the table would give Michigan State the chance to match their ten wins from the 2017 season so there is plenty for both teams to play for.
Injuries could be a problem for the Spartans and leading Receiver Felton Davis III was the latest to go down for the remainder of the season. Quarter Back Brian Lewerke has been banged up too and he is also going to sit out this week which means the Spartans are going to have a tough time against what has been an improved Purdue Defensive unit.
Since giving up 40 points to the Missouri Tigers, Purdue have not allowed more than 28 points in any of their last four games and they are allowing just 17 points per game in that run. Improved Defensive play has been a real factor in Purdue producing this four game winning run and a strong Defensive Line is likely going to shut down the Spartans on the ground and force the back up Quarter Back to beat them through the air.
Rocky Lombardi will be expected to take over at Quarter Back for the Michigan State Spartans and there is every chance he can produce some strong numbers against the Purdue Secondary who have allowed almost 325 passing yards per game in their last three games. However that has much to do with teams playing catch up with the Purdue Offensive unit, while Lombardi is likely to face some tough pressure up front if the Spartans are not able to run the ball with any kind of consistency.
The Boilermakers Defensive unit deserve credit for the way they have played, but it is no surprise that David Blough and the Offensive unit have been taking the majority of the headlines. The whole team have been in a groove over their last four games which culminated in the big home upset of the Buckeyes last week and Purdue are facing a Michigan State Defensive unit that have not been as good as previous years.
Michigan State's Defensive Line remains a tough one to breach, but Purdue will feel they have the Offensive Line to at least blow open a couple of big holes and that is all Blough will be asking for from the Quarter Back position. Keeping the Spartans honest will open up the passing lanes from a Secondary who have given up 275 passing yards per game this season and will also mean Blough is playing without an intense pass rush being all over him.
Purdue have scored at least 30 points in each of their four wins over the last few weeks and they look to have all the momentum behind them. The spread has shrunk thanks to the news that Brian Lewerke will miss out for Michigan State, but I still like the Boilermakers here.
The Boilermakers also have a good recent record against the spread in visits to Michigan State, although usually they are given plenty more points than what they are receiving in Week 9. Michigan State are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a double digit home loss and I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The loss for the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 would just have opened the eyes of the Oklahoma Sooners and other leaders in the Big 12 Conference who will believe winning the Championship with just one loss on the record could be good enough to earn a Play Off spot.
The Oklahoma Sooners currently hold a much better loss than the Buckeyes and they could potentially avenge that in the Big 12 Championship Game in a rematch of the Red River Rivalry game. For now that won't matter and it is up to the Sooners to keep winning and hopefully impressing if they want to get back into the College Football Play Off.
In Week 9 they host the Kansas State Wildcats who still need to find three wins to become Bowl eligible in what has been a difficult 2018 season for all intents and purposes.
Kansas State did snap a three game losing run in Big 12 play by beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys a couple of weeks ago and they come off the Bye with some confidence. Bill Snyder has regularly got the best out of his players when coming out of the Bye Week, but this is a big task for them and the Kansas State Wildcats are not as strong as the 2014 team that did win in Norman out of a Bye.
The key for the Wildcats is going to be whether they can put the Oklahoma Defensive unit off balance as most expect them to want to run the ball against a decent Defensive Line. Alex Barnes has produced at least 175 rushing yards in back to back games, but this Oklahoma Defensive Line have held teams to 3.5 yards per carry over the course of the season and that is the critical match up here.
There are holes to exploit in the Sooners Secondary, but I am not convinced Kansas State have the players to do that consistently. If they are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, the Sooners have a pass rush that can get the better of the Wildcats struggling Offensive Line and that could lead to drives stalling and Field Goals being forced.
Moving the ball and scoring points doesn't look like as much of a problem for Oklahoma as it looks like it could be for Kansas State. The Sooners have found a really good balance on the Offensive side of the ball and they have bounced back from their one loss this season by crushing the TCU Horned Frogs by 25 points on the road in Week 8.
It is going to be very hard for Kansas State to slow down this Offense which can move the ball in large chunks on the ground and that just opens everything up for Kyler Murray at Quarter Back. With the Wildcats struggling to contain Offenses regardless of whether they thrown the ball or run the ball, Oklahoma should be able to have plenty of success in this one.
The spread is a big one when you think of the amount of possessions both teams are likely to get, but I can see Oklahoma forcing some three and outs and also turnovers which can give them the extra touches to secure a big win. I don't know how Kansas State are going to slow down Oklahoma even with the extra preparation a Bye Week would have given them.
Kansas State do have a decent recent record in Oklahoma when it comes to the spread, but this 2018 version is not as strong as the teams that have come to Norman over the last fifteen years. The Sooners also look to want to lay a statement down for the Play Off Committee to consider and they are 22-10 against the spread in their last thirty-two against a team with a losing record on the road.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kansas Jayhawks + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats + 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 8: 6-4, + 1.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 7: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 6: 5-5, - 0.59 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 4: 7-4, + 2.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.91% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)
Season 2018: 39-31, + 4.35 Units
Enough teams have fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten to think a one loss team will be able to make it, and I think a Power 5 Conference one loss team would be considered before an unbeaten Champion from the American Athletic Conference which is not good news for the UCF Knights despite the programme finishing unbeaten in 2017 and being unbeaten in 2018 to this point.
Last week the Big Ten lost the chance of having an unbeaten Champion and I think the leading teams to make the Play Offs going into Week 9 have to be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and I would place the winner of the Big Ten just ahead of the Big 12 Champion, although that is a fluid situation.
We will know much better in the days ahead as to what the Committee may be feeling but all of the leading teams have to know there is little room for error. The only team I would suggest could afford one loss and likely to still be selected is the Alabama Crimson Tide who have made the Play Offs even in years when they have not been the SEC Champion.
The Crimson Tide will get through Week 9 unbeaten as they are on a Bye Week anyway, but there is plenty on the line for other teams who are playing.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: All eyes are beginning to turn to the Play Offs with the Committee set to release their first Rankings in the coming days. Neither the Wisconsin Badgers or the Northwestern Wildcats will be expecting to be involved in the discussion having both suffered at least two losses on the season.
Not every team opens the season with the goal of reaching the Play Offs though with the first port of call being getting into the Conference Championship Game and then playing for a title. These two teams are currently leading the way in the Big Ten West with Northwestern 4-1 in Conference play and Wisconsin 3-1.
The Badgers do look in a stronger position having beaten the other 3-1 team in the Division, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and Wisconsin will know another win in Week 9 will mean they are in a commanding position.
There are similarities between the Badgers and the Wildcats and the results they have earned in 2018 with both suffering a defeat to the Michigan Wolverines in the Conference. While Wisconsin were blown out in their game on the road, Northwestern blew a big home led against the Wolverines but the yardage battle was very similar as both teams were outgained by between 161 and 174 yards.
Wisconsin will feel good about the way they match up with the Northwestern Defensive unit and that does give them the edge in this game against a Wildcats team who have been playing well in Big Ten Conference play over the last twelve months.
The Badgers main threat is on the ground and their Offensive Line will feel they can create open lanes for Jonathan Taylor who has had eight 100 yard rushing games in a row. Taylor is going to be playing against a Northwestern Defensive Line who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and there is every chance that Wisconsin will be in third and manageable situations at the worst as long as they can play a clean game.
Being able to run the ball efficiently should mean Wisconsin can run some play-action to take shots down the field as the Wildcats have to play closer to the line of scrimmage and I do think the Badgers move the ball with some consistency through this game.
Northwestern won't be intimidated about facing a Wisconsin Defensive unit which have not played up to the level that they would expect of themselves. However it does feel that the Northwestern strengths are going up against the Badgers strength and that is going to make it tough to make the right calls all the time.
Isaiah Bowser had a career best day running the ball for Northwestern last week and they will need him to pick up from where he left off if they are going to challenge the Badgers. While Wisconsin having given up plenty of chunk plays on the ground, Northwestern have not been able to run the ball with consistency as highlighted by their 2.3 yards per carry number for the 2018 season and that hasn't been improved by Bowser's career day last week.
Clayton Thorson has helped the Wildcats produce some big numbers through the air, but the Wisconsin Secondary have played well. They can get pressure up front which may make things a little more difficult for Thorson although the Quarter Back has played well enough to think he will make some plays from behind Center.
However it may be difficult to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his season and Wisconsin having extra possessions should be enough to earn the edge in this Big Ten West game. Both teams have some positive trends that can be factored into the game, but the Badgers look like they can move the ball with a little more consistency and Northwestern have a mixed record as the home underdog against the spread.
It's always tough to cover on the road, but Wisconsin are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen road games and I will back the Badgers to move ahead of their chasing rivals in the Big Ten West Division.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: This is another Big Ten Conference game although the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are in different Divisions. A slow start is the reason the Boilermakers are 4-3 on the season, but they are playing with momentum having come from 0-3 in 2018 to this position which includes beating the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 and that has improved their position to 3-1 in the Big Ten.
There is an outside chance for Purdue to make a run for a spot in the Championship Game and their destiny will be in their own hands if Northwestern for to suffer a second Conference defeat. That could potentially happen this week, but Purdue have to focus on their own matters as they face another tough test from the Big Ten East Division.
Last week they knocked off Ohio State, but that was at home and Purdue have to find the same energy when they visit Spartan Stadium. It is a tough spot for the Michigan State Spartans who have played Penn State and rivals Michigan in their last two games and they are coming off a dominant home loss to the Wolverines in Week 8.
At 2-2 in the Conference it looks like Michigan State won't be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game but they will be looking to take another step towards becoming Bowl eligible with a win on Saturday. Running the table would give Michigan State the chance to match their ten wins from the 2017 season so there is plenty for both teams to play for.
Injuries could be a problem for the Spartans and leading Receiver Felton Davis III was the latest to go down for the remainder of the season. Quarter Back Brian Lewerke has been banged up too and he is also going to sit out this week which means the Spartans are going to have a tough time against what has been an improved Purdue Defensive unit.
Since giving up 40 points to the Missouri Tigers, Purdue have not allowed more than 28 points in any of their last four games and they are allowing just 17 points per game in that run. Improved Defensive play has been a real factor in Purdue producing this four game winning run and a strong Defensive Line is likely going to shut down the Spartans on the ground and force the back up Quarter Back to beat them through the air.
Rocky Lombardi will be expected to take over at Quarter Back for the Michigan State Spartans and there is every chance he can produce some strong numbers against the Purdue Secondary who have allowed almost 325 passing yards per game in their last three games. However that has much to do with teams playing catch up with the Purdue Offensive unit, while Lombardi is likely to face some tough pressure up front if the Spartans are not able to run the ball with any kind of consistency.
The Boilermakers Defensive unit deserve credit for the way they have played, but it is no surprise that David Blough and the Offensive unit have been taking the majority of the headlines. The whole team have been in a groove over their last four games which culminated in the big home upset of the Buckeyes last week and Purdue are facing a Michigan State Defensive unit that have not been as good as previous years.
Michigan State's Defensive Line remains a tough one to breach, but Purdue will feel they have the Offensive Line to at least blow open a couple of big holes and that is all Blough will be asking for from the Quarter Back position. Keeping the Spartans honest will open up the passing lanes from a Secondary who have given up 275 passing yards per game this season and will also mean Blough is playing without an intense pass rush being all over him.
Purdue have scored at least 30 points in each of their four wins over the last few weeks and they look to have all the momentum behind them. The spread has shrunk thanks to the news that Brian Lewerke will miss out for Michigan State, but I still like the Boilermakers here.
The Boilermakers also have a good recent record against the spread in visits to Michigan State, although usually they are given plenty more points than what they are receiving in Week 9. Michigan State are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a double digit home loss and I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The loss for the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 would just have opened the eyes of the Oklahoma Sooners and other leaders in the Big 12 Conference who will believe winning the Championship with just one loss on the record could be good enough to earn a Play Off spot.
The Oklahoma Sooners currently hold a much better loss than the Buckeyes and they could potentially avenge that in the Big 12 Championship Game in a rematch of the Red River Rivalry game. For now that won't matter and it is up to the Sooners to keep winning and hopefully impressing if they want to get back into the College Football Play Off.
In Week 9 they host the Kansas State Wildcats who still need to find three wins to become Bowl eligible in what has been a difficult 2018 season for all intents and purposes.
Kansas State did snap a three game losing run in Big 12 play by beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys a couple of weeks ago and they come off the Bye with some confidence. Bill Snyder has regularly got the best out of his players when coming out of the Bye Week, but this is a big task for them and the Kansas State Wildcats are not as strong as the 2014 team that did win in Norman out of a Bye.
The key for the Wildcats is going to be whether they can put the Oklahoma Defensive unit off balance as most expect them to want to run the ball against a decent Defensive Line. Alex Barnes has produced at least 175 rushing yards in back to back games, but this Oklahoma Defensive Line have held teams to 3.5 yards per carry over the course of the season and that is the critical match up here.
There are holes to exploit in the Sooners Secondary, but I am not convinced Kansas State have the players to do that consistently. If they are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, the Sooners have a pass rush that can get the better of the Wildcats struggling Offensive Line and that could lead to drives stalling and Field Goals being forced.
Moving the ball and scoring points doesn't look like as much of a problem for Oklahoma as it looks like it could be for Kansas State. The Sooners have found a really good balance on the Offensive side of the ball and they have bounced back from their one loss this season by crushing the TCU Horned Frogs by 25 points on the road in Week 8.
It is going to be very hard for Kansas State to slow down this Offense which can move the ball in large chunks on the ground and that just opens everything up for Kyler Murray at Quarter Back. With the Wildcats struggling to contain Offenses regardless of whether they thrown the ball or run the ball, Oklahoma should be able to have plenty of success in this one.
The spread is a big one when you think of the amount of possessions both teams are likely to get, but I can see Oklahoma forcing some three and outs and also turnovers which can give them the extra touches to secure a big win. I don't know how Kansas State are going to slow down Oklahoma even with the extra preparation a Bye Week would have given them.
Kansas State do have a decent recent record in Oklahoma when it comes to the spread, but this 2018 version is not as strong as the teams that have come to Norman over the last fifteen years. The Sooners also look to want to lay a statement down for the Play Off Committee to consider and they are 22-10 against the spread in their last thirty-two against a team with a losing record on the road.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kansas Jayhawks + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats + 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 8: 6-4, + 1.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 7: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 6: 5-5, - 0.59 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 4: 7-4, + 2.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.91% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)
Season 2018: 39-31, + 4.35 Units
Friday, 26 October 2018
WTA Finals Day 6 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 26th)
The final Group matches in the WTA Finals are played on Friday and there is a scenario in which every player has a chance of making it through to the Semi Final.
Things are most clear for Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens.
Naomi Osaka has to win on Friday against Kiki Bertens and then hope Sloane Stephens is able to beat Angelique Kerber, while a win for Osaka will also mean the American has moved through to the Semi Final before she has hit a ball in anger against Kerber in the second Semi Final.
Both Kerber and Bertens can move into the Semi Final if they win their matches on Friday, but the situation is not so clear in that case.
A straight sets win for Bertens will take her through to the Semi Final, but there is a situation where we could come down number of games won rather than sets if Bertens and Kerber win three sets or if Osaka and Stephens win in three sets.
That would make the maths a little more complex, and not easy to discuss here, but all is to play for on Friday.
We have also reached the Quarter Finals at both ATP 500 events being played this week so this is another busy day of tennis to be played as the season draws to a close.
On piece of news that has not escaped me was the Caroline Wozniacki story where she admitted she has been diagnosed with arthritis that has affected her in the second half of the season.
I may not be the biggest Wozniacki fan, but I respect what she has been able to achieve on the court and winning her maiden Grand Slam title in 2018 was huge for the former World Number 1. I really hope she is going to be able to manage the issue and compete at the top level for as long as she wants, but there have been rumours since last year that Wozniacki considering hanging up her racquet.
I hope that comes on her own terms though and she is not forced to call it a day because of her body letting her down.
Get some rest Caroline and hopefully you can manage the condition and keep producing your best tennis on the court in 2019 and beyond.
Naomi Osaka v Kiki Bertens: It has been a difficult first appearance in the WTA Finals for Naomi Osaka but there are going to be plenty of opportunities in the future for the young player to make a big impact in the tournament. Her path through to the Semi Final in 2018 is not fully closed either despite losing her first two matches, and Osaka has been close to winning both of the matches in which she has been beaten.
This all means Osaka has to win on Friday and then need some help from Sloane Stephens, but I think the Japanese player will be up for the fight thanks to the strong support she has been getting in Singapore.
The match up with Kiki Bertens may be better for the Osaka mindset too as she is not facing an opponent that is going to have the same movement and defensive skills as Stephens and Angelique Kerber who have been able to wear down Osaka in three sets each time.
Kiki Bertens is playing in the Singles tournament for the first time at the WTA Finals and she has had a lot more success, although has work to do to make it through to the Semi Final. Like Osaka, Bertens will be targeting a straight sets victory which will guarantee her place in the Semi Final although the Dutchwoman will also be aware that any kind of win would put her in a very strong position.
She has played well this week and shown strong battling intensity in her matches which has seen Bertens make a fight of things even though she has dropped the first set in both matches. The challenge is different on Friday because she is going to have deal with a player who can match her power on both the serve and groundstrokes and this has all the makings of a big hitting match.
My edge just goes to Osaka who has played well this week but just not been able to keep her consistency going against strong defensive players. I don't anticipate Bertens getting to half as many balls as Kerber and Stephens have been able to make and I think Osaka will be able to win the battle of the first strike tennis.
The courts are slower than most hard courts, but I think Osaka can get the better of Bertens even if the latter is perhaps more comfortable in the conditions. It would not surprise me to see a fifth match out of five in this Group going to three sets here, but I will back Naomi Osaka to edge past her opponent.
Sloane Stephens v Angelique Kerber: Like the White Group, a player who has won two out of two Group matches is yet to make sure of a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Finals. Sloane Stephens may be in a strong position and she will know exactly what she needs to do by the time she takes to the court, although there is also every chance that the American will already be assured of a final four spot if Naomi Osaka has won earlier in the day.
In a maiden appearance in Singapore it has been a very good tournament for Stephens but she will want more to underline her place alongside the very best players on the Tour.
Stephens can begin to do that by trying to get the better of Angelique Kerber who has reached the Final in this tournament before. However Kerber has work to do to get out of this Group but kept herself alive with a narrow win over Naomi Osaka a couple of days ago.
Kerber should really have won both matches she has played in Singapore and that is why she goes into this one as the favourite. However the match up is different as she faces someone who will be just as athletic around the court and able to make plenty of balls from defensive positions to try and extract errors from her opponent's game.
It has not been a match up that Kerber has enjoyed with four straight losses to Stephens during which time the German has not won a set. They met on a pretty slow hard court in Miami earlier in 2018 and it was Stephens who dominated for the loss of three games.
I do think Stephens has been set as the narrow underdog because she is almost through and Kerber 'must win' the match to have a real chance. In a tournament where Stephens will be expecting to play at least one more match on Saturday she won't want to spend too long on court, but she also won't want to lose the momentum of winning matches and I am going to back the American to continue her dominance of Kerber with another win here.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 11-7, + 8.04 Units (36 Units Staked, + 22.33% Yield)
Things are most clear for Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens.
Naomi Osaka has to win on Friday against Kiki Bertens and then hope Sloane Stephens is able to beat Angelique Kerber, while a win for Osaka will also mean the American has moved through to the Semi Final before she has hit a ball in anger against Kerber in the second Semi Final.
Both Kerber and Bertens can move into the Semi Final if they win their matches on Friday, but the situation is not so clear in that case.
A straight sets win for Bertens will take her through to the Semi Final, but there is a situation where we could come down number of games won rather than sets if Bertens and Kerber win three sets or if Osaka and Stephens win in three sets.
That would make the maths a little more complex, and not easy to discuss here, but all is to play for on Friday.
We have also reached the Quarter Finals at both ATP 500 events being played this week so this is another busy day of tennis to be played as the season draws to a close.
On piece of news that has not escaped me was the Caroline Wozniacki story where she admitted she has been diagnosed with arthritis that has affected her in the second half of the season.
I may not be the biggest Wozniacki fan, but I respect what she has been able to achieve on the court and winning her maiden Grand Slam title in 2018 was huge for the former World Number 1. I really hope she is going to be able to manage the issue and compete at the top level for as long as she wants, but there have been rumours since last year that Wozniacki considering hanging up her racquet.
I hope that comes on her own terms though and she is not forced to call it a day because of her body letting her down.
Get some rest Caroline and hopefully you can manage the condition and keep producing your best tennis on the court in 2019 and beyond.
Naomi Osaka v Kiki Bertens: It has been a difficult first appearance in the WTA Finals for Naomi Osaka but there are going to be plenty of opportunities in the future for the young player to make a big impact in the tournament. Her path through to the Semi Final in 2018 is not fully closed either despite losing her first two matches, and Osaka has been close to winning both of the matches in which she has been beaten.
This all means Osaka has to win on Friday and then need some help from Sloane Stephens, but I think the Japanese player will be up for the fight thanks to the strong support she has been getting in Singapore.
The match up with Kiki Bertens may be better for the Osaka mindset too as she is not facing an opponent that is going to have the same movement and defensive skills as Stephens and Angelique Kerber who have been able to wear down Osaka in three sets each time.
Kiki Bertens is playing in the Singles tournament for the first time at the WTA Finals and she has had a lot more success, although has work to do to make it through to the Semi Final. Like Osaka, Bertens will be targeting a straight sets victory which will guarantee her place in the Semi Final although the Dutchwoman will also be aware that any kind of win would put her in a very strong position.
She has played well this week and shown strong battling intensity in her matches which has seen Bertens make a fight of things even though she has dropped the first set in both matches. The challenge is different on Friday because she is going to have deal with a player who can match her power on both the serve and groundstrokes and this has all the makings of a big hitting match.
My edge just goes to Osaka who has played well this week but just not been able to keep her consistency going against strong defensive players. I don't anticipate Bertens getting to half as many balls as Kerber and Stephens have been able to make and I think Osaka will be able to win the battle of the first strike tennis.
The courts are slower than most hard courts, but I think Osaka can get the better of Bertens even if the latter is perhaps more comfortable in the conditions. It would not surprise me to see a fifth match out of five in this Group going to three sets here, but I will back Naomi Osaka to edge past her opponent.
Sloane Stephens v Angelique Kerber: Like the White Group, a player who has won two out of two Group matches is yet to make sure of a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Finals. Sloane Stephens may be in a strong position and she will know exactly what she needs to do by the time she takes to the court, although there is also every chance that the American will already be assured of a final four spot if Naomi Osaka has won earlier in the day.
In a maiden appearance in Singapore it has been a very good tournament for Stephens but she will want more to underline her place alongside the very best players on the Tour.
Stephens can begin to do that by trying to get the better of Angelique Kerber who has reached the Final in this tournament before. However Kerber has work to do to get out of this Group but kept herself alive with a narrow win over Naomi Osaka a couple of days ago.
Kerber should really have won both matches she has played in Singapore and that is why she goes into this one as the favourite. However the match up is different as she faces someone who will be just as athletic around the court and able to make plenty of balls from defensive positions to try and extract errors from her opponent's game.
It has not been a match up that Kerber has enjoyed with four straight losses to Stephens during which time the German has not won a set. They met on a pretty slow hard court in Miami earlier in 2018 and it was Stephens who dominated for the loss of three games.
I do think Stephens has been set as the narrow underdog because she is almost through and Kerber 'must win' the match to have a real chance. In a tournament where Stephens will be expecting to play at least one more match on Saturday she won't want to spend too long on court, but she also won't want to lose the momentum of winning matches and I am going to back the American to continue her dominance of Kerber with another win here.
MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
WTA Finals Update: 11-7, + 8.04 Units (36 Units Staked, + 22.33% Yield)
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