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Thursday, 11 October 2018

NFL Week 6 Picks 2018 (October 11-15)

The 2018 NFL season has been a good one through the first quarter of the season, but I haven't been spending time patting myself on the back.

Even if I had been the Week 5 I have just suffered through will be a reminder that things can change quickly in the NFL and I am pretty disappointed with my selections to be perfectly frank.

I would love to say I was simply unfortunate, but that would make it difficult to grow from the Picks I made and make sure I am not allowing a loose criteria to be hit.

With that in mind I am expecting much better as we move into Week 6 when the first of the three consecutive London Games are played. This was supposed to be the week when Tottenham Hotspur hosted their first NFL game, but a delay in the Stadium opening means the Oakland-Seattle game has shifted back to Wembley Stadium.

At least the teams' plans won't have been affected too much with the location very similar and so hotels and events booked can still take place as expected. Both teams are coming over from the West coast and it will be interesting to hear what players and Coaches think about the drastic shift in time zone especially with the belief the NFL are still pushing for a franchise to land in London within the next five years.

I have been pretty opposed to that idea for some time, but the NFL continues to try and expand its boundaries in an era when so many feel the sport is one that may not be around for the long-term with all the new rules and a better scientific idea as to what players are going through to entertain the fans.

Week 6 begins with a NFC East Divisional Game on Thursday Night Football and the selection for the Sunday/Monday games will be coming out later this week. The NFL Week 6 post will be the 'Featured Post' this week and I will put out a link on Twitter once the full selections for the week have been made.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: In recent years the NFC East was considered one of the stronger Divisions in the NFL, but that has not been the case in the opening five weeks of the 2018 NFL season. The Washington Redskins loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football means none of the teams in the NFC East have a winning record going into Week 6 and two of those teams scratching to get back up to 0.500 will be playing on Thursday Night Football.

It has been a much more difficult season for the New York Giants to this point with the questions surrounding Eli Manning's suitability at Quarter Back being raised by the Gotham media on a weekly basis. Odell Beckham Jr's comments ahead of the Carolina game in Week 5 hasn't helped Manning's position and it does feel like this is going to be a lost season for the Giants who were undone in Carolina by a 60 plus yard Field Goal as time ran out.

The defending Champions Philadelphia Eagles have been erratic since winning the Super Bowl and a home loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday means they are 2-3, but only 0.5 games out of the Division lead. There still looks to be enough talent to think the Eagles are going to be the team to come out of the NFC East, but they have to play with a little more care as mistakes continue to put them in a difficult position within games.

Jay Ajayi was traded from the Miami Dolphins twelve months ago, but the Running Back has long had issues with his knees and unfortunately suffered an ACL injury in Week 5 which will rule him out for the season. That is a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles who could potentially go back into the trade market before the deadline at the end of the month, but I do think the Eagles will be able to still make plays on the ground in this game on Thursday Night Football.

With some of the misdirection Philadelphia run on the ground, they should be able to take advantage of a New York Defensive Line who have struggled to stop the run all season. There has been some improvement from the Giants in recent games, but they are still giving up well over 4 yards per carry and I do think Philadelphia will look to establish the ground attack to open things up for Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.

Wentz has played ok, but he was going to have some inconsistent moments off the back of an injury that meant he missed the end of the 2017 season and the start of the 2018 one. He has made some very good plays, but Wentz would love to have some more protection from the Offensive Line which has played erratically, although his numbers through the air are still very good.

In this one Wentz may have a little more time with the Giants struggling for a consistent pass rush, while the Secondary have been torched in the last three games and almost giving up 300 passing yards per game.

I do think the Eagles will move the chains with some consistency throughout this Divisional Game, but the Defensive unit need to pick up their play too. The strength of the Defense is on the Defensive Line where the Eagles will figure they can put the clamps down on Saquon Barkley while also getting some significant pressure on Eli Manning who is playing behind an Offensive Line that needs a lot of fixing.

However I do think the Receivers the Giants will be running out on the field could get loose and it is up to Manning to find them having put up some decent numbers against the Carolina Panthers last week. The Eagles have been susceptible to some big passing plays and I do think the Giants can expose those holes even if Manning is not up the level he was when the team won two Super Bowls.

Picking a winner on the spread looks tough with Philadelphia looking the better team, but laying the full three points on the road is a tough ask in a Divisional Game. The short week has made it a little easier for the 'better' team to win these games, but the number looks like one that this game could easily land on and so my attention turns to the total points line.

That immediately looks short to me, although rain is forecasted in the New Jersey area which may make it tougher for the teams to throw the ball as they would like. However I do think the two Offenses are going to be able to move the chains and make some big plays which can make it easier for the total points to be surpassed, while four of the last five between these Divisional rivals have finished with at least 51 points scored.

The last five games hosted by the Giants have seen plenty of points scored and I do think the Offenses can thrive a little more on the short week compared with the Defensive units who have work to do. The over is 6-0 in games between these teams hosted by the New York Giants and I will look for Thursday Night Football to be a high-scoring game with the most likely winner being the road team.

MY PICKS: New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles Over 43.5 Games @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 10 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Week 5: 1-6, - 10.10 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 4: 5-3-1, + 3.18 Units (18 Units Staked, + 17.67% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)

Season 2018: 23-17-1, + 8.46 Units

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