The last Premier League round of fixtures prior to the next international break will take place from Friday across Sunday and it is a big weekend with the top two facing one another to conclude the fixtures this weekend.
It is also a big weekend for Jose Mourinho and Manchester United who need a positive result just to ease some of the tension around Old Trafford. I do think there will be a change in management sooner rather than later with the way the situation has developed at Manchester United, but that whole process could be sped up if Manchester United were to lose to Newcastle United.
Even dropping points won't be tolerated by the fans who have just shown some dissatisfaction with the football at the end of the goalless draw with Valencia.
I will have a short piece about Manchester United next week with my thoughts on how things are developing and the surprising choice I would make as manager if Jose Mourinho is moved on.
This weekend we have a Friday Night Football feature from the Premier League and I am looking to get October into a good position after back to back months with a positive return.
You can read my full Picks from the Premier League below.
Brighton v West Ham United Pick: The Premier League games last weekend did not feature a lot of goals but this opening game could potentially set the trend for the next round of games.
Both Brighton and West Ham United will have circled games like this one as important to win if they want to reach their goals for the season and I do think both sets of players will believe they can win this one.
The form guide is pointing to West Ham United who have turned a corner in their season with 3 wins from their last 4 games in all competitions. They have started to score plenty of goals and Manuel Pellegrini has got the squad playing some decent football.
West Ham United will certainly feel they can expose some holes in the Brighton defence which has been evident all season. The home side have conceded at least twice in every game at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League and that does not bode well when you think of the chances that West Ham United have begun to create.
On the other hand Brighton have been pretty good going forward and they are creating chances themselves. They will be much more proactive in this one than they were at Manchester City last weekend and Brighton also have the confidence of beating West Ham United in both Premier League games last season.
The chances being created by both clubs suggest we are going to see goals in this fixture and that is where I am going with this selection. I did consider to simply back both teams to score, but last season both League games produced at least three goals and the attacking football played by both Brighton and West Ham United suggests we can reach that number again.
At odds against I will pick at least three goals to be scored in this one with both teams creating enough to reach that number.
Burnley v Huddersfield Town Pick: They may have had to ride some luck last week and ask for a decent game from Joe Hart, but Burnley won't care now they have the three points secured from their trip to Cardiff City. Winning back to back Premier League games is huge for Sean Dyche and his players who had sunk into the bottom three after a tough start to the campaign.
Making it three in a row would move Burnley onto 10 points which would be a reasonable place to be going into the second international break of the season.
They are favoured to do that against a Huddersfield Town who look short of quality and confidence to compete at the Premier League level. A strong start to the 2017/18 season meant Huddersfield Town had the points in the bank to avoid relegation last time around, but they have been in relatively poor form throughout the 2018 calendar year and I do fear for them.
The lack of goals in the squad is a real concern, but you can't completely rule Huddersfield Town out this weekend.
Why? Well all 3 League goals have been scored away from home this season and they have led in their last 2 away Premier League games. Burnley are not a team who are likely to blow others away regularly, despite what they did to Bournemouth, and so conceding a goal would make this a tough game to win especially if they fall behind.
Huddersfield Town have also drawn 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games going back to last season and they have scored in 4 straight which means they need to be respected.
In saying that I do think Burnley are playing with more confidence and they should be able to edge to the win. Losing James Tarkowski is a blow, but Burnley can battle to the three points in this important game although my respect for Huddersfield Town's away performances means I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake if the game finishes in a draw.
Crystal Palace v Wolves Pick: There is so much to admire about Wolves beginning with the style of football they have produced and the amount of chances they create in games. Better composure in the final third would have seen Wolves perhaps win at Manchester United and they have shown they are more than capable of reaching and perhaps exceeding the top ten prediction many had for the club before the season began.
This is a tough away trip for Wolves who are still looking for a little more consistency at the Premier League level, but they have shown enough to think they can earn the victory at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace is never an easy place to visit, but there has been some sort of fall out between the 'ultras' and the club and that has seen the atmosphere not reach the level of past years. I am not sure that is the main reason Crystal Palace have yet to win a Premier League game here, but the bigger factor may be scoring enough goals as they search for the first in the League at home.
For all the endeavour and quality that Crystal Palace clearly possess, I do think they are struggling to create enough chances. They should have beaten Newcastle United here in their last League game at Selhurst Park, but Crystal Palace have looked short of goals in other games while not defending as well as they would have liked.
I do think the home team will create chances against Wolves, but I also respect how well the latter have been playing. Wolves don't offer a lot of opportunities against them and they have shown there is a bite going forward which has me leaning towards the visitors.
Essentially the Asian Handicap is a 'Draw No Bet' market and I will look at getting behind Wolves with the knowledge the draw will return the stake.
Leicester City v Everton Pick: There have been some very positive signs for both Leicester City and Everton over the last month since the last international break and both will want to head into the next one with the momentum behind them.
This could be a decent game of football on Saturday especially as Everton tend to try and play attacking football under Marco Silva which does leave spaces to be attacked. Those are the kind of spaces Leicester City enjoy, especially if Jamie Vardy is passed fit as expected, and I think it makes for an interesting fixture.
You have to like the way Leicester City have played in the last couple of weeks with strong wins and performances against Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United. Granted both opponents have yet to win this season and are in the bottom three, but the chances created will make the fans believe Claude Puel is getting the best out of his squad.
Everton crushed Fulham last weekend, but they had been a little unfortunate in losses prior to that and I do think they are much more dangerous with Richarlison back in the line up. They can cause problems for a Leicester City team who have conceded in their last couple of home Premier League games, but I do have to worry about the number of goals Everton have been conceding.
The visitors have conceded at least twice in each of their last 4 away Premier League games and also conceded three times to West Ham United at home last month. With that amount of goals being conceded it is hard to have faith in Everton to do enough to earn a result here and I am going to back Leicester City to win and cover the Asian Handicap.
Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City Pick: There will be a few teams who are beaten by Barcelona at home in the manner Tottenham Hotspur were on Wednesday, but it was always going to be an even tougher ask for the home team with the injuries scattered around the squad.
A couple of those could potentially clear up this weekend, but even if they don't you would think facing Cardiff City is a considerably 'easier' task than facing Barcelona.
Neil Warnock has admitted his squad have not really been prepared for the step up in level to the Premier League having surprisingly earned promotion from the Championship. That doesn't mean the manager has given up on causing another surprise by keeping Cardiff City in the top flight, but Warnock hasn't had a lot of success in his career in doing that.
This team does look short of the level needed to compete in the Premier League and Cardiff City have to rely on outworking their opponents and also hoping for an off day from them. They will be motivated by playing at Wembley Stadium, but Cardiff City have struggled to contain the best teams they have faced and Tottenham Hotspur are playing at a decent enough level of late.
Tottenham Hotspur have won back to back Premier League games and they have created solid chances in those while Harry Kane looks to be ready for another good goal-scoring run. With the opportunities that Cardiff City have allowed the top teams they have faced to create, I do think Spurs can win this fixture by a couple of goals at least.
Watford v Bournemouth Pick: Two of the more surprising teams through the first two months of the 2018/19 season will meet on Saturday and it looks like a match that could be very enjoyable for the fans attending Vicarage Road.
Watford come into the weekend in 6th place and Bournemouth are 7th, but the form guide is pointing to the away team. While Watford have yet to win between the last international break and the one upcoming, Bournemouth have won 3 of their last 4 games and so I imagine the away team will have their backers as the underdog.
However the results alone don't tell the full story as Watford have played well enough to have gotten much more than they have in recent matches. They could easily have won at Arsenal last weekend and Watford continue to create enough chances to be given respect by any team they face at the moment.
The Bournemouth defending remains inconsistent to say the least so I do think Watford will create chances in this fixture and they will just have to show the composure that was lacking last weekend to make sure they can score some goals.
On the other side I also feel Bournemouth have played well enough to score here even if they have not managed to do that in their last 2 away games in the Premier League. The Cherries have had their chances in both games at Chelsea and Burnley and I don't think you can ignore the fact that the last 2 games between these teams at Vicarage Road have both ended 2-2.
There should certainly be enough chances for both teams to get close to that number of goals again and I am going to back at least three to be shared out.
Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: It has not been much fun being a Manchester United fan over the last couple of weeks as the side have lurched from one poor result to another. The football has been far from inspiring and the constant battles between the manager and the players has worn the fans down.
On Tuesday the fans seemed to be voicing more discontent as they booed off Manchester United following the goalless draw with Valencia in the Champions League. The second half was much better than the first, but there does seem to be a lack of conviction or a real game plan in the final third.
It has meant there has been an almost desperate feel to some of the attacking play, but Manchester United can bounce back prior to the two week international break by winning this fixture. As poor as the results have been, Manchester United have at least shown some life compared with Newcastle United who have been in miserable form in the 2018/19 season.
Rafa Benitez has not been given a real chance to purchase the players he would like and at the moment he is struggling to get more out of what is a limited squad. The lack of goals is a real problem for Newcastle United to try and resolve and this is a not a team who create a lot of chances.
There is no love lost between Benitez and Jose Mourinho so there is that tension at play, but this shouldn't be a fair fight with Mourinho being able to call on much better players than Benitez. The latter will look to make life as difficult as possible by organising his Newcastle United team into two banks of four, but a real concern for the fans has to be the poor defensive performances produced so far.
With the way Manchester United are playing this is a big Asian Handicap to cover, but I think they will be able to do enough in the final third to break down this Newcastle United team who have conceded too many goals in recent games. It is a risky play because Manchester United haven't been very good over the last month, and they have not won at Old Trafford since early August, but this may be the ideal opponent to bounce back against and I will back the hosts to be too strong.
Fulham v Arsenal Pick: The long away trips in the Europa League can play havoc with preparations for the next Premier League game and Arsenal will be playing in the early Sunday slot which makes it that much tougher for them.
They were able to rest some key players in the win over Qarabag, but a strong squad travelled and it will be a big ask of them to win at Fulham.
The home team have been far from consistent in the 2018/19 season as Fulham have returned to the Premier League. There have been some good performances but Fulham have looked very poor defensively and that has to be an issue against an Arsenal team who have scored at least twice in 4 straight away games in all competitions.
However Arsenal have really not been as strong defensively as their 3 clean sheets in the last 4 games would suggest. Teams have created some very promising chances against Arsenal but they have not shown the composure in front of goal to finish those off, but I am not so concerned about Fulham being unable to take their chances if they are presented in this Premier League game.
It is no surprise to me the layers have shortened the price of seeing at least three goals in this one and even the option of picking four or more goals to be scored is a much shorter price than you may expect. The layers aren't far wrong to do that though with both teams showing real vulnerability defensively that can be exploited by the other.
I am expecting goals with that in mind and I think Fulham can definitely push Arsenal as much as Cardiff City did last month. I will look for at least four to be shared out in this early live televised game on Sunday.
Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Like I have said about Arsenal, playing in the Europa League on a Thursday and in the Premier League on a Sunday has proven to be a tough experience for English clubs in recent years.
The positive for Chelsea is their last Europa League game was played at Stamford Bridge and they have also managed to give some players a rest which should mean they are prepared for their trip to Southampton.
The layers are very much expecting a Chelsea win, but I don't think it will be plain-sailing on the south coast with Southampton having plenty of energy in the final third and looking pretty effective going forward. There is a confidence issue at St Mary's which has to be addressed by Mark Hughes as Southampton have won 1 of their last 14 Premier League games here and I do think nervousness does affect the players highlighted most in their 2-2 draw with Brighton in a game they had led 2-0.
Last season Southampton also blew a 2-0 lead against a Chelsea team that had looked disinterested in the last few weeks of the Premier League season and that means Chelsea have won on their last 3 visits to this ground.
It is all about the mentality of the Southampton players and whether they can perform with a little bit more conviction in front of their own fans, but even then it is a tough ask for them to beat a Chelsea team who are in decent form.
Chelsea may not have won their last 2 Premier League games, but they have created enough chances to do that and Eden Hazard looks to be in wonderful form. It was actually a Hazard miss against Liverpool that left them vulnerable to the late Daniel Sturridge strike eight days ago, but Chelsea have looked very threatening when they have come forward.
I don't believe the home team are good enough defensively to contain that threat either and I fancy Chelsea to win here. However I do think they will need to score at least twice to do that with Southampton producing some decent football in the final third themselves and so backing Chelsea to win a game featuring two or more goals is my selection.
Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League is about to go on a two week hiatus but they might be saving the best game of the weekend until last with the top two meeting at Anfield.
Unsurprisingly the layers are not having an easy time picking a favourite although I have to admit I thought it would be Manchester City going in as the marginal shorter price considering the current form of the two teams.
However you can't dismiss the fact that Liverpool have beaten Manchester City 3 times in a row and also won the last 6 matches between them at Anfield. That has to be factored into the price and so it is the slightly out of form Liverpool who come in as the one the layers believe will be top of the League come the end of the weekend.
I am really struggling to pick the winner- I can make a case for both with Liverpool being very strong at home and their dominance over Manchester City in the 2018 calendar year, while Manchester City look to be in the better overall form and have been creating chances for fun in recent games.
Something that has surprised me is the slight lack of composure both Liverpool and Manchester City have shown in the final third despite the amount of goals they have been scoring. Both teams have been guilty of some glaring misses over the last couple of weeks and even the managers have pointed out that they want more from their players.
Goals have flowed when these teams have met and I would be surprised if we didn't see at least three again on Sunday. All 4 matches between these teams hit that number last season and half of those saw at least five goals shared out by the teams including a crazy 4-3 win for Liverpool in the Premier League.
Over the years these teams have combined for plenty of goals when facing each other and the style both managers employ suggest there will be plenty of chances in this one too. Backing at least three goals to be shared out might not be the most appealing price, but I do fancy that very much in this one.
However I think there is enough of a reason to back at least one more goal being shared out on Sunday. Liverpool have already beaten Paris Saint-Germain 3-2 here in the Champions League and Manchester City have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games overall.
The home team will always create chances against the defensive shape Manchester City employ and it looks a big price to see four or more goals on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Brighton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fulham-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
October Update: 10-7-1, + 3.66 Units (36 Units Staked, + 10.17% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment