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Wednesday 24 October 2018

WTA Finals Day 4 Tennis Picks 2018 (October 24th)

The WTA Finals continue on Wednesday as the Red Group completes the second round robin matches with the two losing players and two winning players from Monday's action meeting one another.

As we saw on Tuesday, this doesn't necessarily mean we will have any confirmation of players that are through to the Semi Final or exiting the tournament.

However there will be some pressure on Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka to avoid becoming the first player to exit the WTA Finals. On the other hand Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens have made very strong starts to the tournament and any player who can win in straight sets will be in a very strong position to make it through to Friday's Semi Finals.

On Wednesday we will also see the continuation of the ATP 500 tournaments in Basel and Vienna as we get down to the final weeks of the 2018 season. With doubts about the fitness of Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro there could be additional places available at the World Tour Finals which means there could be an exciting race developing in the next couple of weeks.

A number of those players chasing a spot at the O2 Arena in London are in action this week and will be looking to give themselves a shot in the arm with a deep run in either Basel or Vienna.


Angelique Kerber v Naomi Osaka: Two more matches were played at the WTA Finals on Tuesday in the White Group and the results mean the underdogs are 5-1 so far in this tournament. Both Angelique Kerber and Naomi Osaka will feel they should have won their opening matches as the favourites on Monday, but instead they could be fighting for their survival in the WTA Finals.

I have so much time for the way Osaka has been playing, but she will have to really understand her game plan more clearly if she is going to get back on track here.

The conditions looked like they could be very difficult for Osaka to deal with in her loss to Sloane Stephens and that could be underlined by someone like Kerber who can defend as well as anyone on the WTA Tour. It means there is a real pressure on Osaka to find the big serves frequently so she can play first strike tennis on a court where hitting winners is far from a straight-forward task.

If Osaka is not able to serve effectively enough then it will feel like Kerber can make it four wins in a row against the youngster with the more effective movement around the court and the ability to defend long enough to extract mistakes from Osaka.

The Kerber serve is something of a weakness and it will sit up on this court which will give Osaka every chance to attack and force the German backwards. It was the main reason Kerber was not able to get the better of Kiki Bertens in her first match in the Group and she will be well aware she needs to be better in that department.

In all honesty the match got away from Kerber, but she was arguably the better player against Bertens and she has enjoyed playing here in Singapore before. I do think the conditions favour her more than Osaka and I am looking for yet another underdog to come through with a win here at the WTA Finals.

Kerber being without a coach this week is not a big concern and I think ultimately she is going to have enough defensive work to wear down Osaka although it may be another match in this tournament that needs three sets to separate the players.


Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Kiki Bertens: Neither one of these players have been involved in the WTA Finals before so it was impressive to see both Sloane Stephens and Kiki Bertens hold themselves together to earn a victory in their opening match at the tournament.

The winner of this one is likely going to be playing in the Semi Final on Friday, although we have seen in the other Group that two wins is not necessarily enough to earn confirmation of that. However it would be a big surprise to win two matches and not make the Semi Final so both Stephens and Bertens will be looking to ease the pressure on themselves by winning on Wednesday.

You could make a decent case for both players, but I think it was Bertens who invested more emotionally in her win over Angelique Kerber than Stephens did in her three set win over Naomi Osaka. The swings of momentum in the Bertens-Kerber final set would have taken something away mentally and I am not convinced the Dutchwoman would have fully recharged in time for this match.

She had lost three of her final four Tour matches before the WTA Finals began which means Bertens could feel she is playing with 'house money' by being involved in the Singles draw here. However there can be a relaxation involved with knowing there is one more match to play to secure a spot in the Semi Final and that could see the intensity just drop off from the level needed to win the first match.

The conditions look tough for the players, but I would just give the edge to Stephens who is the better mover of the two. Bertens may possess the bigger serve, but she will need a lot of first serves to prevent being drawn into the longer rallies which should be won by the American.

Backing a favourite is not an easy thing to do in a tournament where the underdogs have been thriving. However I think Stephens deserves her spot here and she should be able to back up her win over Naomi Osaka by almost certainly earning a Semi Final spot here.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber @ 2.15 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

WTA Finals Update: 4-2, + 4.12 Units (12 Units Staked, + 34.33% Yield)

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