The College Football season is always difficult to predict, but it would still have been a huge surprise for fans of this sport to see the Week 7 results that have opened up the potential for teams chasing a Play Off berth at the end of the 2018 season.
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen pre-season favourites to reach the College Football Play Offs fall and put themselves under immense pressure. The Oklahoma Sooners, Washington Huskies, Auburn Tigers, Georgia Tigers, Penn State Nittany Lions, Miami Hurricanes and West Virginia Mountaineers have all been beaten.
Out of those teams I think you can draw a line through Washington, Penn State, Auburn and Miami.
Georgia will have to win out and likely beat the Alabama Crimson Tide to win the SEC Championship to have a chance to reach the Play Offs again. Winning out will be the same scenario for the Oklahoma Sooners and West Virginia Mountaineers, although the Texas Longhorns will have something to say in the Big 12 despite a terrible looking loss to the Maryland Terrapins on their record.
I think it would be fair to say the Pac-12 is likely done as a potential landing spot for a Play Off team, while Notre Dame's chances have increased tenfold.
Right now I would suggest Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Clemson will be making up the four teams, but a single loss could change all that.
Looking to capitalise will be Georgia, Florida, LSU, Michigan and any one loss Big 12 Champion.
That means there are still some twists and turns to come as we enter Week 8 of the 2018 season and all of the teams involved will know how much is at stake with each passing week in the books.
Oklahoma Sooners @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: These two teams may have contested the inaugural Big 12 Championship Game and it was the Oklahoma Sooners who got the better of the TCU Horned Frogs twice in the 2017 season. Both games were dominated by the Sooners and they are coming out of a Bye Week in a big to get their 2018 season back on track.
Dropping the Red River Rivalry Game to the Texas Longhorns in the final seconds of that game two weeks ago would have hurt, but the Sooners are looking at the positives and the way they fought back in the Fourth Quarter to get so close to extending their unbeaten season.
Oklahoma can still reach the Play Offs but the pressure is on the Sooners to win out beginning with this trip to the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Horned Frogs are already out of contention as far as the Play Offs go and it has been a more difficult start to the season than they would have imagined. The team were beaten by the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out which has dropped them to 1-2 in the Big 12 Conference and 3-3 overall.
That home loss came on Thursday night in Week 7 so the Horned Frogs have had some time to prepare for an angry Oklahoma team who will be looking to prove a point out of their loss to the Longhorns.
It has to be expected that the Horned Frogs will be able to move the chains against his Oklahoma Defensive unit which is giving up over 450 yards per game over their last three games as the competition has ramped up. The Sooners have been stout against the run by holding teams to under 4 yards per carry and TCU may not have a lot of success against them on the ground, but I expect the Horned Frogs will be able to make some big plays through the air.
The key in this game is going to be how well the Horned Frogs Defensive unit copes with one of the more high powered Offensive teams in College Football. TCU have played really well on that side of the ball, but Oklahoma will have noted that Ohio State were able to score 40 points against them and last year the Sooners were able to score 79 points in two games against TCU.
That was with Baker Mayfield at the helm, but Kyler Murray has filled in admirably for the Quarter Back who now plays with the Cleveland Browns in the NFL. Murray's scrambling ability gives Oklahoma another threat and I do think he will put the Sooners in a position to win this game.
The spread is a big number when you think of the Defensive issues the Sooners have had, but I think they will bounce back from the loss to Texas and will have been itching to get back to winning ways. Last season they crushed TCU twice and the Sooners are 26-12 against the spread in their last thirty-eight games coming off a loss.
TCU are now 5-17 against the spread in their last twenty-two home games and they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven against a team with a winning record. I think the Sooners are going to be focused and have just a little too much Offensive power as they continue their run of winning true road games and beat out the Horned Frogs again.
Maryland Terrapins @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: The Big Ten West Division looks like an open one and the Iowa Hawkeyes will be hoping they can fill the spot in the Championship Game. The self-inflicted loss to the Wisconsin Badgers means a key tie-breaker is against them, but the Hawkeyes can't worry about that just now and will be looking to keep the wins coming in Week 8.
Last week they crushed the Indiana Hoosiers on the road to improve to 2-1 in Big Ten Conference play and the Hawkeyes are now one of four teams with one loss in this Division.
They can't afford to treat the Maryland Terrapins lightly considering the Week 1 win the Terrapins had over the Texas Longhorns who have looked like one of the better Big 12 teams out there. However it can be difficult to know which Maryland team will turn up on any given week as they have been blown out by the Temple Owls and Michigan Wolverines and Iowa have to be considered as fitting in somewhere between those teams.
Take away a turnover filled loss to the Wisconsin Badgers and you can see the confidence developing in the Iowa dressing room, but they have to be careful with this Terrapins team. Turnovers have been huge for Maryland throughout 2018 and they picked up five more in the win over the Rutgers Scarlet Knights a week ago, although Rutgers are perhaps the weakest team in the Big Ten by some distance.
Kasim Hill threw three Touchdown passes last week for Maryland, but the key to their success is going to come behind the Offensive Line and whether they can split open the holes up front for their Running Backs. This is the strength of the Iowa Defensive unit though and it will be interesting to see if the Terrapins can establish the run as that will determine their success or failure in this game.
It won't be easy for the Hawkeyes to produce the Offensive output they have in recent games, but they will feel they can match what the likes of Temple and Michigan have been able to do. Nate Stanley continues to show improvement at Quarter Back to give Iowa some momentum but the Maryland Defensive numbers have to be respected and I think it could be tight in the first half as the battle of field position commences.
Eventually I am of the belief that Iowa will have too much for Maryland with their stronger Offensive numbers likely to dictate the way the game goes. If they stay stout on the Defensive Line I think Iowa will be very difficult to beat and this Maryland team are too inconsistent for them.
Maryland's inconsistencies are highlighted by their 5-16 record against the spread following a straight up win. Take away the win over Texas and you can see Maryland do struggle against the better teams they face and the Terrapins are now 4-11 against the spread in their last fifteen games against a team with a winning record.
The Hawkeyes are now 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall and they have a strong 6-2-1 record against the spread in their last nine home games. It is a big number but I do think the Hawkeyes are the better team and they can continue their move up the Big Ten standings.
Houston Cougars @ Navy Midshipmen Pick: The Navy Midshipmen were supposed to be one of the leading contenders in the American Athletic West Division but it has been one of the stranger Divisions in College Football. Navy and the Memphis Tigers both have losing records and that has left the door open for the Houston Cougars who have won both of their American Athletic games so far in the 2018 season.
The Cougars will head to Annapolis trying to take a stranglehold of the Division and a place in the Championship Game by winning on the road against Navy.
That has never been an easy task for any visitor as Navy will always play hard, but the Cougars will feel they match up pretty well with them. Last season Houston finished 7-5 in Major Applegate's first season as Head Coach, but they have every chance of surpassing that number of wins and also competing for the Championship for the first time in three seasons.
Navy will not be surprising any team by running the triple option Offense, but the struggles of the Quarter Backs have still not been helpful to their cause. Those struggles could be particularly evident if the Houston Cougars continue to produce some strong run stuffing displays on the Defensive Line which has given up just 2.8 yards per carry on the season.
Of course that will be tested by the Midshipmen, but this Houston team should be comfortable with what they are expected to be faced with. I doubt very much the Defensive Line is going to give up just 116 yards on the ground as their season average has been, but Houston can at least contain Navy and that gives them every chance of stalling drives and forcing Field Goals instead of allowing Touchdowns.
Unlike Navy who are trying to find some Offensive consistency, Houston have a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball and should be able to move the chains throughout the game. Running the ball has been very effective for the Cougars and a team who have been churning out 6.2 yards per carry over the course of the season should be able to create chunk plays against the Navy Defensive Line.
It should mean another comfortable day for D'Eriq King at Quarter Back who has been able to run the ball himself. Even when King drops back to throw the ball I would anticipate he is going to be well protected by his Offensive Line against a Navy pass rush which has been almost non-existent all season.
Navy are home so you have to respect that and the home team has won all three games in this series over the last three years. Navy are also 18-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven games at home and they will play hard and make it very tough for the Cougars.
However I do think Houston have more momentum and look to match up very well with Navy here. It is a big test for Houston playing on the road and they have a poor record against the spread on the road, but I will look for the Cougars to shown their strength on both Lines in the trenches which leads to a statement win.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers Pick: Any team that goes to Death Valley knows what to expect but the Georgia Bulldogs were still caught out by the LSU Tigers who are overachieving so far in 2018. The Tigers reside in the very tough SEC West, but they have managed to produce a 3-1 record in the SEC Conference games and that means the LSU Tigers are looking to make sure they are still in a position to win the Division after Week 8.
The Tigers will be heading into the Bye Week following the home game with the Mississippi State Bulldogs and they will come right out to face the Alabama Crimson Tide. LSU will be hosting the game with the Crimson Tide which means they currently own their own destiny in making it to the SEC Championship Game, although one more slip up will likely end their those chances.
LSU were beaten by the Florida Gators a couple of weeks ago before bouncing back and stunning the Georgia Bulldogs who reached the College Football Play Offs last season. Ed Orgeron had been on the hot seat as the Head Coach of LSU prior to the beginning of the 2018 season, but the upset over Georgia gives the Tiger every chance of surpassing the nine wins they earned in 2017.
Winning this game will go a long way to achieving that, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs are anything but a walkover for the Tigers. Mississippi State have perhaps not reached the heights expected of them and they are just 1-2 in the SEC this season, although the Bulldogs come out of a Bye Week which followed the home win over the Auburn Tigers.
The Bulldogs have to find a way to control the LSU Offensive unit who have been one of the most balanced in the whole College ranks. Since moving into SEC play the Bulldogs Defensive Line has not been as strong against the run as they would have liked and they are going to be challenged by this LSU rushing attack which has produced almost 250 yards per game on the ground in their last three games.
If Mississippi State can keep LSU in obvious passing downs and distance, they will feel they have a chance to at least stall some of the Tigers drives. The Secondary haven't played badly, but the Bulldogs have excelled at getting to the Quarter Back and the LSU Offensive Line has not been as strong in pass protection as they have in opening holes for the running game.
It does have to be said that Mississippi State will feel they can push around the LSU Defensive Line too and controlling the clock with be key for the visitors. The Tigers have not played as well since coming up against SEC opponents, although the Secondary remains strong and shouldn't have too many issues dealing with Nick Fitzgerald when he drops back to throw.
Fitzgerald is a dual threat Quarter Back though and he can spark the passing game by helping the Bulldogs establish the run in this one and I do like the visitors the points they are being given.
There is a revenge angle at play after the LSU Tigers were blown out by Mississippi State last year. However the emotion of coming off the big win over the Georgia Bulldogs can even that out and it is Mississippi State who have covered the spread the last four times these team have played each other.
You can be forgiven for finding it tough to oppose the Tigers who are 9-1 against the spread in the last ten Conference games. However I do think this is going to be a very close game and the LSU Tigers might just struggle to pick themselves up from the emotional win over the Georgia Bulldogs last week.
The switch from a healthy home underdog to a healthy favourite can be tough for young players to deal with and I will take the points here.
USC Trojans @ Utah Utes Pick: The Pac-12 has almost lost its chance of having a Play Off team in Week 7 when both the Colorado Buffaloes and Washington Huskies were beaten. One of those losses came at the hands of the USC Trojans who have recovered from a poor 1-2 start to the 2018 season.
The Pac-12 South Division has a big game in Week 8 as the Trojans go on the road to take on the Utah Utes who are half a game behind USC in the standings. After losing the first two Pac-12 Conference games played, Utah have bounced back to beat Stanford and Arizona and the Utes and Trojans were expected to be the best teams in this Division in 2018.
There is going to be plenty on the line when the Trojans visits Utah in Week 8 and I have to say I do like the underdog with the number of points being given to them. Both teams have strong Defensive units that can set them up for the win and I do think a potentially low-scoring game makes getting a converted Touchdown worth of points look very appealing.
USC and Utah have two common opponents in 2018 and the performances of the teams have been very similar which suggests there isn't much between the Trojans and the Utes.
Over the course of the season the USC Defensive Line have not been as stout as they would have liked in stopping the run, but there has been an improvement in the last three games. They have held teams to under 3 yards per carry in the last three games, but I do think Utah will have some success running the ball against them although will still need Tyler Huntley to have a big game at Quarter Back.
Huntley is off a big week, but he is going to be challenged by this USC Secondary who have been tough to pass against for the most part. It has been more of a struggle for them in recent games but I wouldn't worry too much for the Trojans who also generate a strong pass rush to put some pressure on Huntley in this game.
USC have a young Quarter Back of their own in JT Daniels and he is going to be asked to have a big game for them too. Like USC, Utah have a Defensive Line that pride themselves on being able to stop the run which means Daniels will have to make the plays with his arm to keep the chains moving.
Daniels can do that against a Utah Secondary which has given up over 350 passing yards per game in their last three games. However he has to make sure he looks after the ball in a tight game that could easily swing one way or the other depending on the turnovers number as well as the field position in which they occur.
The pass rush could be a problem for the young signal caller, but he can help USC get into a position to win this game.
I do have a concern that USC tend to be over-rated in these tough road games and Utah have some strong trends that favour them. However they are very closely matched as I have mentioned and I will take the points in this one.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 24 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 17.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 21 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 12 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
USC Trojans + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 7: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 6: 5-5, - 0.59 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 4: 7-4, + 2.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.91% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)
Season 2018: 33-27, + 2.89 Units
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