College Football Week 6 Picks (October 6th)

Week 5 of the College Football season proved to be another winning one on the season, but we haven't even reached the half way stage of the regular season and that means this is not even close to the time to be giving yourself a pat on the back.

Last week I had a little more time to put out the full analysis for all of the selections but I know that won't be the case in Week 6, although I will have the breakdown for some of my selections which you can read below.

The full selections for Week 6 can be seen at the bottom of the thread.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: It will take a brave person to stick their neck on the line and oppose the Alabama Crimson Tide from repeating as National Champions in 2018. Many have considered this to the best team Nick Saban has had since taking over as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide and setting the benchmark for College Football and the team have been dominating opponents whether they have in or out of the SEC Conference.

The Crimson Tide have been winning games by a wide margin with an average of 41.2 points per game more than their opponents over the first five games of the season.

Things are pretty settled with Alabama who are already focused on trying to make the Play Offs and win the National Championship again. The same can't be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks in the first season Chad Morris is Head Coach of the programme.

Arkansas have begun with a 1-4 record and they are looking unlikely to surpass the four wins they earned in the 2017 season. Usually the Head Coach will be given time when taking over a team for the first season, but the Razorbacks have some high demands and the fans have not been impressed by what they are seeing despite bringing back nine starters on the Offensive unit and eight starters on the Defensive unit.

The 27 point home loss to the North Texas Mean Green is the performance that hurt the fans the most, but the Razorbacks have also been beaten by 31 points by the Auburn Tigers. Last week was better with a more competitive performance against the Texas A&M Aggies, but the challenge is much bigger this week against what looks like it could go down as one of the strongest College Football teams in years.

It is so important for the Razorbacks to try and establish the run in this one if they are going to have a serious chance of upsetting the Crimson Tide. The Offensive Line have yet to really impose themselves on games this season, but the Alabama Defensive Line has not been the all conquering unit of years gone by yet either so there is a chance for Arkansas to get something going.

This will make Ty Storey a little more comfortable at the Quarter Back position, but the inexperience could be tough to overcome. The Offensive Line have not really protected Storey as well as they would have liked and he will be under siege whenever the Razorbacks are in third and long or other obvious passing downs.

Storey will be making a third start in a row for the Razorbacks but facing pressure up front means he is more likely to make the mistakes that will see the ball turned over by the Crimson Tide.

Alabama have always been a team who love to pound the ball themselves and show their power on the ground and this Crimson Tide team have also had success moving the ball with their Running Backs. One area where Arkansas have played well this season is stopping the run with a decent Defensive Line holding teams to 3 yards per carry, but opponents have been able to expose the run game by going at the Secondary through the air.

There haven't been many times in the Nick Saban era that he has been able to call on a Quarter Back like Tua Tagovailoa and the passing numbers have been eye-catching. Tagovailoa should be able to dissect the Arkansas Secondary who have struggled in 2018 and the way the Crimson Tide have been rolling I do think they can cover what is a very big number on paper.

I am a bit concerned by Alabama's 1-5 record against the spread in their last six Conference games, and this is a big number. The Crimson Tide also haven't been able to beat Arkansas by more than 32 points in any of their last four games against one another, but this Alabama team may be the best of those and Arkansas look like a team lacking real confidence.

It isn't a straight forward play, but Alabama have won their two SEC games by 5 55 points and 22 points. I think Arkansas are more like Ole Miss than Texas A&M and I will back the Crimson Tide here.


Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The latest edition of the Red River Rivalry takes place in Week 6 of the 2018 season and there is every chance that this could be the first of two potential games between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns this season.

Both teams are unbeaten in Big 12 play, although the Texas Longhorns were beaten in Week 1 in another surprise loss to the Maryland Terrapins. That may be an issue when it comes to the Play Off selection committee later in the season, but Tom Herman won't worry about anything but running the table and finally returning to the top of the Big 12.

Herman is Coaching under some pressure at the moment with his seat feeling much warmer after the opening week loss to the Terrapins. However the four straight wins would have cooled that seat down and Herman will likely be safe in his job if he can help prevent the Oklahoma Sooners beating Texas three times in a row.

Much of the outcome of this game is going to be based on the big battle between the Sooners Offensive unit and the Texas Defensive unit. Both of those units have been in fine form in the 2018 season and it really does feel the outcome of this game will be decided on that side of the ball.

Kyler Murray has played very well at the Quarter Back position for Oklahoma and he is going be important to this game. Murray had to sit out the first series in Week 5, but he then came in and dominated the Baylor Bears and Texas have to find the right plays to make sure they can at least contain Murray to some extent.

Murray will be facing his toughest challenge against a Texas Secondary who have held teams to 218 passing yards per game, but he is capable of making plays with his legs too which makes it tough to contain the dual threat Quarter Back. The Longhorns Defensive Line can get some pressure up front, but they have to make sure they are able to be stout against the run and at least make Murray play from third and long where they can.

In all reality it looks like this could be another high-scoring rivalry game and that means the Longhorns have to find some real consistency from their own Offensive unit. They have not run the ball as well as they would have liked and it is the play of Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back which has been helping them win games.

Ehlinger will need his Offensive Line to be at their best with the pressure Oklahoma have generated from the pass rush being a real key to some of their successes in 2018. The Quarter Back should have some success throwing the ball against the Oklahoma Secondary but Ehlinger will be under pressure to make sure he looks after the ball and that should give the Longhorns a chance of keeping this game close even in a losing effort.

The last four Red River Rivalry games have seen the winner take home the victory by 7 points or fewer. Oklahoma have won three of the last four, but Texas have lost all of those games by the same 5 point margin and I do think the points being given to the underdog are appealing enough to back them here.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 35 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)