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Saturday 13 October 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Terence Crawford vs Jose Benavidez (October 13th)

The World Boxing Super Series Season One finished with a flourish a couple of weeks ago as Callum Smith fulfilled the potential most believed he had by knocking out George Groves and becoming the Number 1 Super Middleweight in the World.

The doors have been opened for Smith who should be involved in some big fights in that Division over the next eighteen months before perhaps moving up to Light-Heavyweight where there are more big fights waiting for the Brit.

Much like Oleksandr Usyk, Callum Smith will have seen how big the World Boxing Super Series could be for his career and that will mean a lot for all those Boxers who have entered Season Two which began last week.

Naoya Inouhe opened the new Season with a fantastic Knock Out of Juan Carlos Payano and I do think there are going to be more memorable fights in a tournament that has captured the imagination of the Boxing fans. My only issue at the moment is that there hasn't been a confirmed UK company that will be featuring Season Two of what had been a brilliant Season One, although that could change prior to Josh Taylor and Ryan Burnett's opening bouts in early November.


There is a long-term problem with the World Boxing Super Series in whether they can continue to put together the kind of fields they have over the last twelve months. Some have asked for the Heavyweights to be involved, but the top tier of that Division would not participate in my opinion, while other top Divisions like the Welterweights and Middleweights are also not likely to bring the very best together in the field.

For now I am just loving the kind of fights we are getting to see and the potential fights that are going to be set up over the next twelve months thanks to a tournament that has exceeded all expectations that fans may have had for the World Boxing Super Series.


I didn't have any Boxing Picks last weekend because I didn't really get to look at the markets for the fights that were taking place in Chicago and Yokohama. I did watch the cards and I am surprised that Jessie Vargas is being placed in an IBF eliminator off the back of two draws.

It was a close fight that he would have nicked last week if not for a flash Knock Down in the final thirty seconds of the Twelfth Round, but I am not sure that is enough for Vargas to potentially have an opportunity to take on Errol Spence Jr.

Jarrell Miller did what was expected against a veteran whose best days are long behind him, while I was very impressed with Callum Johnson even in a losing effort.

There is a great interview in the Red News, a Manchester United fanzine, with Johnson and I do think he comes against after becoming the first fighter to put Artur Bertebiev down.


This week we have a couple of decent cards in England and Russia before seeing arguably the Number 1 pound for pound fighter in the world Terence Crawford in his first defence of his WBO Welterweight Title.

Hopefully Crawford will be lining up some huge Unification fights over the next year, but his focus will be first to get through this defence with a statement win over an unbeaten challenger.

Two more World Boxing Super Series Quarter Final bouts also take place this weekend and it should be a fun night for Boxing fans.


David Allen vs Samir Nebo
David Allen was a big outsider in his last fight in July against Nick Webb, but he came through for me by winning with an impressive Knock Out.

It was a fun that has just got the juices flowing again for Allen who is looking to at least become a British Champion over the next twelve months.

I do think that is possible for him and as much as I like Allen as a character I am also aware of the limitations he has. Allen is tough, rugged and willing to come forward and take chances, but he will be the first to admit there is a clear ceiling for his skill levels and he will do everything he can to at least reach that point in his career while making a decent earning for himself.

This isn't much more than a stay busy fight for Allen who is looking for a much bigger name when he is expected back out in December, potentially on the Dillian Whyte undercard again.

Samir Nebo is back in the ring eight months after being Knocked Out by Tom Schwarz, but the veteran won't be expected to really make a big impact in this one. It is his first fight outside of Germany in five years and I think Allen is going to walk him down and make sure he puts out a statement with a fairly comfortable win.

I am simply not sure how much resistance Allen will face and I can see him getting this done in the first half of the scheduled Ten Rounder. Allen may be 6-4-1 in his last eleven fights, but all of his six wins have come in the first Four Rounds and it looks a big price for the White Rhino to extend that sequence with another early stoppage in this bout.


Lewis Ritson vs Francesco Patera
For his fans this may not be a surprise, but for most Lewis Ritson has really announced himself on the British Boxing scene over the last twelve months beginning with a huge win over Robbie Barrett to win the British Lightweight Title.

I have really enjoyed watching Ritson fight with some immense power destroying the likes of Joe Murray and Scott Cardle before doing the same against Paul Hyland Jr which means he wins the British Title outright.

It is no surprise to see him headlining a card in his home town Newcastle on Saturday and the step up has now been made to European level. The World Lightweight scene is a tough one but Ritson does feel he can go further and perhaps his dream to fight at St James' Park will be against someone like Vasyl Lomachenko.

Ok, I am looking too far ahead there, but I have been that impressed by Ritson over the last year although I do think it is going to be interesting to see if his power transfers up to the tougher challengers that he will face at the European level.

Ritson is fighting for the European Lightweight Title on Saturday, but no one should be thinking Francesco Patera is going to provide a pass to another belt.

Patera doesn't have a great record with his losses to Sean Dodd and Yvan Mendy likely going to encourage Ritson. He has yet to be stopped though and that is the big question for Ritson who has won his last eight fights inside the distance.

The punching power Ritson has displayed suggests he can, but I am not so sure that he will continue the run of early Knock Outs in this bout. The Geordie himself has admitted he feels this will go longer than his recent fights and he fancies a late stoppage and I am not really going to argue against that.

At some point I feel Ritson will get close enough and will hurt Patera to the body and it may be the referee or corner who step in and take their man out of the fire. I expect the power to start telling in the mid-Rounds and then Ritson should move into another gear and really start breaking down his opponent.

Patera has looked durable enough to be given respect and so a small interest on Ritson getting this done in the Championship Rounds is my pick.


Ruslan Fayfer vs Andrew Tabiti
There are three Divisions in the World Boxing Super Series in Season Two and fans will be hoping the Cruiserweight boxers can provide the same fireworks as those in Season One did.

It might not be the same class of field as last season but this is still a decent tournament which opens up with Ruslan Fayfer taking on Andrew Tabiti in Russia.

Both fighters are unbeaten which means they will both come in with confidence although it is Tabiti who has arguably the better wins on his record even if that is not by a wide margin.

This is a heavy hitting Division and both of these fighters can hit hard with decent Knock Out percentages in their unbeaten start to their career.

The winner of this one will be hoping they can begin to make a big name for themselves in the Boxing world and I am leaning towards Tabiti in this one.

While both are making a step up compared to their usual level of opponent, I do think Tabiti may have the better skills which should see him able to set up his shots a little better. That could be the key in what could develop into something of a fire fight and I think it will be the slightly better skills that allows Tabiti to come away with a win on the road.

Ruslan Fayfer is at home and is unbeaten so he won't go quietly, but he has more to prove and I am going to back Tabiti to find the stoppage at some point in this Quarter Final.


Zolani Tete vs Mikhail Aloyan
If the four favourites in the Bantamweight Division of the World Boxing Super Series are all able to progress as expected then we could be in line for two amazing Semi Final bouts as well as the Final in a fascinating tournament.

Last week Naoya Inouhe made a big statement with a blow out win to move through to the Semi Final and Zolani Tete will have been aware of what happened and look to do the same.

It may be a tough ask against Mikhail Aloyan who is being fast tracked on the professional circuit having been an amateur enjoying real success up to the age of 28. The Russian has won all four fights and his last three opponents had a combined record of 46-1-2 as pros before being beaten by Aloyan.

However it has not been the Vasyl Lomachenko domination of opponents that Aloyan would have hoped for and he has needed a Split Decision to win his last two fights. Now he also steps up to take on a World Champion who has not lost a fight in over six years and who has really built some momentum under the guidance of Frank Warren.

The highlight reel Knock Out of Siboniso Gonya really brought Tete to the attention of the United Kingdom public and his last five fights have been in that country with the hope of a Unification with Ryan Burnett high on the wish list of the fighters and the public.

Tete has also shown he is more than a puncher though and his height and reach means he can be a real problem for others in the Bantamweight Division. He is considerably taller than Aloyan and I think Tete is going to work his attributes in this one and make sure he breaks down his unbeaten opponent.

We can't really tell what kind of punch resistance Aloyan will have in this one, but he will need to show some of that against a big hitter like Tete. Ultimately I think the favourite is going to look to just pick his shots and make sure he uses his reach and height to control Aloyan and win this by a comfortable margin on the cards.

Making a statement like Inouhe did last week will be on the mind of Tete, but there are some big fights ahead and I can see him building the lead on the cards and then being told by his corner to not make any mistakes. The cards have been needed to see Tete win two of his last three fights and I can see a 118-111 kind of score for the South African to make it through to the Semi Final.


Terence Crawford vs Jose Benavidez Jr
It started with a clash back in February when Jose Benavidez Jr confronted Terence Crawford and accused him of 'ducking' a potential fight with him.

That really came out of left field to be honest and since then Crawford has won the WBO Welterweight Title by stopping Jeff Horn before getting ready to make his first defence against Benavidez Jr.

Like Crawford, I am not convinced Benavidez Jr has done anything to really deserve a shot at the World Title and I am also pretty convinced that 'Bud' is going to win this one fairly comprehensively.

There are attributes to like with Benavidez Jr who is taller and rangier than Crawford but all I see that doing is making the pound for pound top five fighter just have to figure things out in the early Rounds.

After Four I would expect Crawford to start upping the tempo and really begin to pick his punches as he adjusts to the range that Benavidez Jr is offering.

Crawford looked very angry at the weigh in and even threw a punch at Benavidez Jr, but I don't think he will lose his composure in this one. While his opponent feels he is in his head, I think Crawford is playing it up for the cameras and I am not convinced he threw the punch wholeheartedly on Friday and instead is just building some interest around the fight.

I am expecting Crawford to pick apart his bigger opponent during the middle of this fight once he gets to grip with the distance between them. As much as Benavidez Jr is an unbeaten fighter, he has not been at this level and I think there are levels between the two which will show up.

At around Round Seven or Round Eight I expect Crawford to start really beating up Benavidez Jr where it will become unwatchable and the corner or referee will have to step in. It might last a Round or two more than that, but I am expecting Crawford to really begin to put in some nasty work as he makes Benavidez Jr pay for some of the comments ahead of this fight and the American can then look to big time Unification fights going into 2019.

MY PICKS: David Allen to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lewis Ritson to Win Between 9-12 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Andrew Tabiti to Win by KO, TKO, Disqualification @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Zolani Tete to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Terence Crawford to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Boxing 2018: 28-48, + 16.94 Units (116 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

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