The College Football season hits the halfway mark of the regular season in Week 7 and we are beginning to see the pretenders separated from the contenders when it comes to potential Play Off places.
The Big 12 is likely going to have a one win Champion and there is every reason to believe two teams from the SEC would be invited in if both Georgia and Alabama win out and meet in the SEC Championship Game.
Ohio State and Clemson Tigers look solid shouts for the Play Off if they can remain unbeaten while the Pac-12 already looks like it will be missing out.
The outsider at the moment is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who would surely get the call if they remain unbeaten. Their chances would improve tenfold if they win out and the Michigan Wolverines can win the Big Ten Conference, but the Fighting Irish will feel confident with a very winnable schedule left before the final week game at the USC Trojans.
None of these teams will be looking too far ahead as things can change very, very quickly in the College Football ranks with one defeat knocking teams way back down the line. All the Head Coaches of the chasing teams will know that too and it is imperative they keep young players focused and with their feet on the ground.
It was a mixed bag for the College Football Picks in Week 6, but I didn't get a lot of luck with some late scores preventing more winners being put on the board. Hopefully that won't be an issue in Week 7 as the season continues at a pace.
Florida Gators @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: The SEC may be dominated by the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs, but the Florida Gators can still play their part in the SEC East if they are able to win before heading into their Bye Week. The Gators are in the first year under new Head Coach Dan Mullen and they have recovered from a surprise defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats with a couple of upsets of their own having beaten the Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU Tigers over the last couple of weeks.
Mullen has been making it clear all week that he is not letting his players rest on their laurels after the impressive wins they have achieved over the last two weeks. The Head Coach has reminded the players that those wins won't count for as much they potentially could if the Gators were to drop this game with the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The 'World's Largest Cocktail Party' game with Georgia is on deck, but that is in two weeks time which should mean the Gators are able to focus on playing one of the weaker teams in the SEC. Vanderbilt are going to need to win half of their remaining six games if they are going to be Bowl eligible, but they have been blown out in their two SEC games played in 2018 and Derek Mason might be under pressure as the Head Coach here if he cannot guide Vanderbilt back into a Bowl at the end of this season.
The spread is a tough one to like when you think South Carolina visited Nashville and were favoured by five points fewer than Florida. The Gators are also in a different mental position having won back to back games as the underdog and now being asked to cover more than a Touchdown to win here but I do still like them especially with a Bye Week to come between this game and the one with the Bulldogs that could determine the winner of the SEC East.
Florida should be able to establish the run against the Vanderbilt Defensive Line which has struggled all season and not just when they have faced SEC teams. That should mean Feleipe Franks is able to make more plays out of the Quarter Back position although Dan Mullen is likely going to ask Franks to continue taking what the Defenses have been giving up and instead play a mistake free game which is propelled by the run game.
The Commodores Defensive unit have just slipped in recent games and that is going to mean there is a real pressure on Kyle Shurmur to continue to show the strong form at Quarter Back that he has for the majority of the 2018 season. However Shurmur is going to be facing another strong SEC Defense in Week 7 and Vanderbilt have not been able to score more than 14 points in either of their SEC games so far this season which has to be a concern for Mason and the team.
Vanderbilt could have some success establishing the run which may make things a little easier for Shurmur. One of the big problems the Gators have had in 2018 is on the Defensive Line which has been surprisingly bullied more than would have been expected from a strong SEC Defensive unit. That could give the Commodores the chance to have more success Offensively than they did against the Bulldogs and Gamecocks, although eventually I would expect the Florida Defense to make one or two big plays that helps turn the game in their favour for good.
The Gators have won four in a row in the series overall and they have a very strong record when visiting this part of Tennessee. Florida are 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to Vanderbilt and the road team is now 8-2 against the spread in the last ten in this series. I will look for Florida to run the ball well and look after the ball a little better than Vanderbilt and that should lead to a solid road win for Dan Mullen's overachievers.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Mistakes made in the loss to the Wisconsin Badgers is the only reason the Iowa Hawkeyes are not unbeaten going into Week 7 and their chances of making the Big Ten Championship Game have been reduced by that defeat. However there are no signs of heads dropping as the Hawkeyes blew out the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming out of their Bye Week and now Iowa will be favoured to beat the Indiana Hoosiers.
It has been a tough start to the Big Ten for Indiana who have lost to Michigan State and Ohio State already in Conference play, but their non-Conference performances means Indiana are a couple of wins away from being Bowl eligible.
Focus could be an issue for the home team who play Iowa as the meat in an Ohio State and Penn State sandwich.
Those two games are clearly going to bring up the enthusiasm more than facing the Iowa Hawkeyes, but the Hoosiers will also recognise the qualities their visitors bring to the field. The Iowa Defensive unit have been playing at a high level and the Defensive Line have shown a capability of shutting down the run game which could make it very difficult for Indiana to stay out of third and long situations in this game.
Indiana won't move away from the run as it opens things up for Peyton Ramsey at Quarter Back, but the Iowa Defensive Line have been in strong form in limiting teams to under 3 yards per carry over the course of the 2018 season. They are unlikely to allow too many holes on the ground which means Ramsey will be asked to make some big plays with his arm.
Ramsey helped the Hoosiers stay with Ohio State last week before falling away and his performance will give him confidence against the Iowa Secondary. However the Indiana Offensive Line have not offered the kind of protection for Ramsey they would have liked and this Hawkeyes team have a strong pass rush which should be able to create havoc in the backfield if the Defensive Line is able to shut down the run for most intents and purposes.
Mistakes are going to be a big key to the outcome of this game and Ramsey has been guilty of a couple of ill-advised throws. He is facing a ball hawking Iowa Secondary who helped create four turnovers in the win over the Golden Gophers in Week 6 and that has to be a concern for Indiana.
It is also a concern for Iowa considering the amount of times they have given the ball away in their last couple of games as they have stepped up their level to take on Big Ten opposition. Turnovers cost them a chance of upsetting the Wisconsin Badgers, and the two given up to Minnesota last week upset Head Coach Kirk Ferentz who is looking to see a cleaner game all around.
Like Indiana, Iowa could find it hard to establish the run in this one but they will be encouraged by the passing lanes they have seen the Hoosiers give up since moving in their own Big Ten schedule. The Hawkeyes should get a little more out of the ground game than Indiana, while Quarter Back Nate Stanley is coming off a four Touchdown outing and now faces a Secondary who have given up almost 300 passing yards per game in their three Big Ten games.
Turnovers feel like they will play a big part of this game and it does make it a little tougher to read. I do think Indiana are not in a great spot playing this game between two huge Divisional games against Ohio State and Penn State, while Iowa have a strong recent record against Indiana with six wins from the last seven in this series.
The favourite is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games in the series and Iowa are 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games as the road favourite. Indiana's home loss to Michigan State saw them drop to 1-3 against the spread as the home underdog under Head Coach Tom Allen and I will back the Hawkeyes to win and cover on the road after having one less turnover than their hosts.
Louisville Cardinals @ Boston College Eagles Pick: The Louisville Cardinals have won at least eight games in each of the past six years including the last four under Head Coach Bobby Petrino, but 2018 has been a tough season at the halfway mark for them. Losing Lamar Jackson to the NFL and seeing only four of the Defensive starters return meant it was likely to be a difficult season, but the 0-3 record in the ACC Conference has been below even shallow expectations.
That record has dropped Louisville to 2-4 for the season which means they need to win four of their remaining six games to be Bowl eligible. There are three winnable home games left on the schedule, but the Cardinals are going to have to find an upset on the road to reach that mark and prevent a first losing season since 2009.
Petrino has been fighting his corner this week, but the Head Coach will be feeling some of the pressure that comes after the blow out loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Defensive Line has been a particular disappointment for the Cardinals and that was before the Yellow Jackets pounded them on the ground in Week 6 and it is something Louisville will have to fix if they are going to beat Boston College.
The Eagles have dropped two of their last three games and they are 1-1 in the ACC Conference this season but on course for a fifth winning season in six years under Head Coach Steve Addazio. Realistically Boston College will be looking for a win in this one to make sure they can hit the six wins they need to become Bowl eligible as they finish the season with five opponents who don't have a losing record going into Week 7.
AJ Dillon missed the loss at NC State for Boston last week but he will be desperate to return against the Cardinals who he hammered on the ground in 2017. The Running Back had 272 yards on the ground with four Touchdowns in the Boston College road win over Louisville in 2017 and Dillon will know the Defensive Line has struggled which suggests he could have a huge impact in this one too.
Everyone knows the Eagles will be looking to pound the rock as they don't want Anthony Brown to do much more than manage the game. He hasn't played that well in recent games, but Brown might not have to do a lot if Louisville's Defensive Line struggle as they have all season in preventing teams from establishing the run.
It will be the opposite way around for Louisville who have simply not been able to run the ball as well as they would have liked without duel threat Quarter Back Lamar Jackson in the backfield. They are facing a tough Boston College Defensive Line who have shown improvement at stopping the run with 4 yards per carry given up over the course of the season.
Jawon Pass has taken over at Quarter Back and it is apt that he is successful throwing the ball through the air. The Eagles have given up almost 300 passing yards per game across their last three games and so Pass will believe he can have a decent outing although there are a couple of issues for him to deal with.
The first of those is the impressive pass rush Boston College have put together and they have also found some big plays out of the Secondary who can turn the ball over. Pass is not being protected by the Offensive Line as well as he would have liked and a young signal caller is liable to making mistakes which could be a key reason Boston College are able to take control of this game.
The Cardinals are 4-3 against the spread as the road underdog under Bobby Petrino, but they look short of confidence and I think Boston College control the clock and the ball. They could produce a couple of key turnovers to swing this game in their favour and I will back the Eagles to cover a big number at home in Week 7.
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Any chance the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have of making the College Football Play Off will depend on them running the table and then looking to oust a Conference Champion or two. Notre Dame will be very much aware of the pressures of having to win every game they play but the feeling will be that they have gotten through the toughest portion of the schedule.
Complacency could be the biggest opponent for Brian Kelly and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the weeks ahead and they are a big favourite to see off the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 7.
There have been a couple of under-par efforts from the Fighting Irish but they have gotten through those games and looked much better in dismissing Stanford and Virginia Tech in their last couple of games.
Dexter Williams was the key for the Fighting Irish in the second half against the Hokies and the Running Back could easily back up his big effort with another in Week 7. This week Williams is going to be running against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line who have given up 4.9 yards per carry on the season and I do think Williams is going to have a big game and ease any pressure Quarter Back Ian Book may be feeling.
Book has taken over from Brandon Wimbush at Quarter Back and for the most part he has been very effective although still having some teething issues in his first prolonged time as the starting Quarter Back for Notre Dame. There should be time to make some big plays for Book, especially if Williams is going to get the run established as expected, and the Quarter Back should have success against a Secondary who have given up almost 280 passing yards per game in their last three.
The Pittsburgh Panthers have been blown out by the Penn State Nittany Lions and UCF Knights this season and it will be very difficult Defensively to slow down this Notre Dame Fighting Irish Offensive unit.
At least Pittsburgh will be coming in with confidence having beaten the Syracuse Orange in Week 6 and that means they are back to 3-3 in 2018 and also 2-1 in the ACC. The Panthers can put in a big effort ahead of the Bye Week but much is going to depend on the battle in the trenches as the Panthers try to establish the run against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Line which has held teams to 3.4 yards per carry in 2018.
It won't stop Head Coach Pat Narduzzi from dialling up his rushing plays and perhaps even bring in some misdirection to keep the Fighting Irish on their toes. The importance of being able to run the ball is magnified by the struggles Pittsburgh are having in find an effective Quarter Back and they are going to find whoever lines up behind Center being put under pressure from the Notre Dame pass rush.
There are some solid trends in this series which are in favour of Pittsburgh, but they will need Notre Dame to be off their game to extend those. The Fighting Irish have not covered double digits as a home favourite in any of their last four games in that situation which is a concern too, but they look to be matching up with Pittsburgh very well and I think the road to the Play Offs have begun to look clear enough that Brian Kelly will demand his players to keep impressing the Play Off Committee.
If Notre Dame's Defensive Line can win up front like I anticipate, they can lay down a marker by producing a big win in this game.
Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks Pick: At this stage of the regular season every team will still believe they can achieve their goals, but for the Pac-12 Conference it may be a big week in determining whether they still have a realistic chance of sending a team to the College Football Play Off.
There are only two teams with an unbeaten record within the Conference and one of those is the Washington Huskies. However the Huskies have already been beaten by the Auburn Tigers in the 2018 season and they need to run the table if they have a realistic chance of making the Play Off because a two loss team is simply not going to be picked by the Committee.
The Oregon Ducks only have one loss on the season too, but it is far less forgivable to lose to the Stanford Cardinal than the Auburn Tigers. Oregon won't be worrying about their Conference chances of having a Play Off team and instead can move to 2-1 in the Pac-12 North Division which will give them a chance of making the Championship Game.
Oregon bounced back from the loss to Stanford by beating the California Golden Bears in Week 5 and they are coming in off a Bye Week which makes them dangerous. Justin Herbert leads the Offensive unit and is considered a potential high pick in the next NFL Draft so this is the kind of game that many Scouts will be watching with a keen interest.
Part of the reason for that is Herbert is going up against a Huskies Defensive unit that have been playing at a high level after bringing back nine starters from the 2017 team that finished with a 10-3 record. Head Coach Chris Peterson will want to take the Huskies back into the Play Offs having made it in the 2016 season and a key to this game will be seeing the Secondary trying to slow down Herbert through the air.
The game is potentially all on Herbert's arm for the Oregon Ducks because they are unlikely to be given a lot of space up front by a strong Huskies Defensive Line. Washington are impressing by holding teams to under 4 yards per carry and they will be looking to force Herbert to sink or swim through the air.
I do think Herbert will have his successes because he looks like a Quarter Back capable of playing at the next level, but there will be pressure on him if the Ducks Defensive unit can't show real improvement coming out of their Bye Week.
In 2018 Oregon have not really faced too many quality teams but the Defensive numbers are showing decline as the level of opponent picks up. The Ducks will feel they can at least limit what Myles Gaskin is able to do on the ground for Washington, but controlling Jake Browning at Quarter Back may be a bigger and tougher challenge.
Browning is able to move away from pressure, but he has not been protected by his Offensive Line as well as he would have liked. The Quarter Back should still be able to make some big plays through the air as the Ducks have given up 260 passing yards per game over their last three games and now face the best Quarter Back they would have seen in 2018.
A couple of years ago Browning dominated Oregon in this Stadium and led Washington to 70 points- it is unlikely he will lead the Huskies to that kind of total, but Browning can out-duel Justin Herbert with the superior team around him.
Washington have won the last couple of games in this series and helped the favourite improve to 14-2-1 against the spread in the last seventeen between these teams. The Huskies do have a winning record against the spread as the road favourite under Chris Peterson, while Oregon are 1-4 against the spread as the home underdog in their last five games.
The better team is the one on the road this week and I think they can cover like Stanford did here, although I don't believe Washington will need Overtime to do that.
MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boston College - 13 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 28 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 10 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
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