The regular season in College Football is only a few weeks from a close and that means the Play Off Committee are soon going to release their first set of Rankings to give us an insight into which teams are being considered for the four spots.
Enough teams have fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten to think a one loss team will be able to make it, and I think a Power 5 Conference one loss team would be considered before an unbeaten Champion from the American Athletic Conference which is not good news for the UCF Knights despite the programme finishing unbeaten in 2017 and being unbeaten in 2018 to this point.
Last week the Big Ten lost the chance of having an unbeaten Champion and I think the leading teams to make the Play Offs going into Week 9 have to be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and I would place the winner of the Big Ten just ahead of the Big 12 Champion, although that is a fluid situation.
We will know much better in the days ahead as to what the Committee may be feeling but all of the leading teams have to know there is little room for error. The only team I would suggest could afford one loss and likely to still be selected is the Alabama Crimson Tide who have made the Play Offs even in years when they have not been the SEC Champion.
The Crimson Tide will get through Week 9 unbeaten as they are on a Bye Week anyway, but there is plenty on the line for other teams who are playing.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Northwestern Wildcats Pick: All eyes are beginning to turn to the Play Offs with the Committee set to release their first Rankings in the coming days. Neither the Wisconsin Badgers or the Northwestern Wildcats will be expecting to be involved in the discussion having both suffered at least two losses on the season.
Not every team opens the season with the goal of reaching the Play Offs though with the first port of call being getting into the Conference Championship Game and then playing for a title. These two teams are currently leading the way in the Big Ten West with Northwestern 4-1 in Conference play and Wisconsin 3-1.
The Badgers do look in a stronger position having beaten the other 3-1 team in the Division, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and Wisconsin will know another win in Week 9 will mean they are in a commanding position.
There are similarities between the Badgers and the Wildcats and the results they have earned in 2018 with both suffering a defeat to the Michigan Wolverines in the Conference. While Wisconsin were blown out in their game on the road, Northwestern blew a big home led against the Wolverines but the yardage battle was very similar as both teams were outgained by between 161 and 174 yards.
Wisconsin will feel good about the way they match up with the Northwestern Defensive unit and that does give them the edge in this game against a Wildcats team who have been playing well in Big Ten Conference play over the last twelve months.
The Badgers main threat is on the ground and their Offensive Line will feel they can create open lanes for Jonathan Taylor who has had eight 100 yard rushing games in a row. Taylor is going to be playing against a Northwestern Defensive Line who have allowed 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and there is every chance that Wisconsin will be in third and manageable situations at the worst as long as they can play a clean game.
Being able to run the ball efficiently should mean Wisconsin can run some play-action to take shots down the field as the Wildcats have to play closer to the line of scrimmage and I do think the Badgers move the ball with some consistency through this game.
Northwestern won't be intimidated about facing a Wisconsin Defensive unit which have not played up to the level that they would expect of themselves. However it does feel that the Northwestern strengths are going up against the Badgers strength and that is going to make it tough to make the right calls all the time.
Isaiah Bowser had a career best day running the ball for Northwestern last week and they will need him to pick up from where he left off if they are going to challenge the Badgers. While Wisconsin having given up plenty of chunk plays on the ground, Northwestern have not been able to run the ball with consistency as highlighted by their 2.3 yards per carry number for the 2018 season and that hasn't been improved by Bowser's career day last week.
Clayton Thorson has helped the Wildcats produce some big numbers through the air, but the Wisconsin Secondary have played well. They can get pressure up front which may make things a little more difficult for Thorson although the Quarter Back has played well enough to think he will make some plays from behind Center.
However it may be difficult to avoid the mistakes that have blighted his season and Wisconsin having extra possessions should be enough to earn the edge in this Big Ten West game. Both teams have some positive trends that can be factored into the game, but the Badgers look like they can move the ball with a little more consistency and Northwestern have a mixed record as the home underdog against the spread.
It's always tough to cover on the road, but Wisconsin are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen road games and I will back the Badgers to move ahead of their chasing rivals in the Big Ten West Division.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: This is another Big Ten Conference game although the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are in different Divisions. A slow start is the reason the Boilermakers are 4-3 on the season, but they are playing with momentum having come from 0-3 in 2018 to this position which includes beating the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 and that has improved their position to 3-1 in the Big Ten.
There is an outside chance for Purdue to make a run for a spot in the Championship Game and their destiny will be in their own hands if Northwestern for to suffer a second Conference defeat. That could potentially happen this week, but Purdue have to focus on their own matters as they face another tough test from the Big Ten East Division.
Last week they knocked off Ohio State, but that was at home and Purdue have to find the same energy when they visit Spartan Stadium. It is a tough spot for the Michigan State Spartans who have played Penn State and rivals Michigan in their last two games and they are coming off a dominant home loss to the Wolverines in Week 8.
At 2-2 in the Conference it looks like Michigan State won't be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game but they will be looking to take another step towards becoming Bowl eligible with a win on Saturday. Running the table would give Michigan State the chance to match their ten wins from the 2017 season so there is plenty for both teams to play for.
Injuries could be a problem for the Spartans and leading Receiver Felton Davis III was the latest to go down for the remainder of the season. Quarter Back Brian Lewerke has been banged up too and he is also going to sit out this week which means the Spartans are going to have a tough time against what has been an improved Purdue Defensive unit.
Since giving up 40 points to the Missouri Tigers, Purdue have not allowed more than 28 points in any of their last four games and they are allowing just 17 points per game in that run. Improved Defensive play has been a real factor in Purdue producing this four game winning run and a strong Defensive Line is likely going to shut down the Spartans on the ground and force the back up Quarter Back to beat them through the air.
Rocky Lombardi will be expected to take over at Quarter Back for the Michigan State Spartans and there is every chance he can produce some strong numbers against the Purdue Secondary who have allowed almost 325 passing yards per game in their last three games. However that has much to do with teams playing catch up with the Purdue Offensive unit, while Lombardi is likely to face some tough pressure up front if the Spartans are not able to run the ball with any kind of consistency.
The Boilermakers Defensive unit deserve credit for the way they have played, but it is no surprise that David Blough and the Offensive unit have been taking the majority of the headlines. The whole team have been in a groove over their last four games which culminated in the big home upset of the Buckeyes last week and Purdue are facing a Michigan State Defensive unit that have not been as good as previous years.
Michigan State's Defensive Line remains a tough one to breach, but Purdue will feel they have the Offensive Line to at least blow open a couple of big holes and that is all Blough will be asking for from the Quarter Back position. Keeping the Spartans honest will open up the passing lanes from a Secondary who have given up 275 passing yards per game this season and will also mean Blough is playing without an intense pass rush being all over him.
Purdue have scored at least 30 points in each of their four wins over the last few weeks and they look to have all the momentum behind them. The spread has shrunk thanks to the news that Brian Lewerke will miss out for Michigan State, but I still like the Boilermakers here.
The Boilermakers also have a good recent record against the spread in visits to Michigan State, although usually they are given plenty more points than what they are receiving in Week 9. Michigan State are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games following a double digit home loss and I will take the points on offer with the road team here.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The loss for the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 8 would just have opened the eyes of the Oklahoma Sooners and other leaders in the Big 12 Conference who will believe winning the Championship with just one loss on the record could be good enough to earn a Play Off spot.
The Oklahoma Sooners currently hold a much better loss than the Buckeyes and they could potentially avenge that in the Big 12 Championship Game in a rematch of the Red River Rivalry game. For now that won't matter and it is up to the Sooners to keep winning and hopefully impressing if they want to get back into the College Football Play Off.
In Week 9 they host the Kansas State Wildcats who still need to find three wins to become Bowl eligible in what has been a difficult 2018 season for all intents and purposes.
Kansas State did snap a three game losing run in Big 12 play by beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys a couple of weeks ago and they come off the Bye with some confidence. Bill Snyder has regularly got the best out of his players when coming out of the Bye Week, but this is a big task for them and the Kansas State Wildcats are not as strong as the 2014 team that did win in Norman out of a Bye.
The key for the Wildcats is going to be whether they can put the Oklahoma Defensive unit off balance as most expect them to want to run the ball against a decent Defensive Line. Alex Barnes has produced at least 175 rushing yards in back to back games, but this Oklahoma Defensive Line have held teams to 3.5 yards per carry over the course of the season and that is the critical match up here.
There are holes to exploit in the Sooners Secondary, but I am not convinced Kansas State have the players to do that consistently. If they are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, the Sooners have a pass rush that can get the better of the Wildcats struggling Offensive Line and that could lead to drives stalling and Field Goals being forced.
Moving the ball and scoring points doesn't look like as much of a problem for Oklahoma as it looks like it could be for Kansas State. The Sooners have found a really good balance on the Offensive side of the ball and they have bounced back from their one loss this season by crushing the TCU Horned Frogs by 25 points on the road in Week 8.
It is going to be very hard for Kansas State to slow down this Offense which can move the ball in large chunks on the ground and that just opens everything up for Kyler Murray at Quarter Back. With the Wildcats struggling to contain Offenses regardless of whether they thrown the ball or run the ball, Oklahoma should be able to have plenty of success in this one.
The spread is a big one when you think of the amount of possessions both teams are likely to get, but I can see Oklahoma forcing some three and outs and also turnovers which can give them the extra touches to secure a big win. I don't know how Kansas State are going to slow down Oklahoma even with the extra preparation a Bye Week would have given them.
Kansas State do have a decent recent record in Oklahoma when it comes to the spread, but this 2018 version is not as strong as the teams that have come to Norman over the last fifteen years. The Sooners also look to want to lay a statement down for the Play Off Committee to consider and they are 22-10 against the spread in their last thirty-two against a team with a losing record on the road.
MY PICKS: Wisconsin Badgers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kansas Jayhawks + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats + 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 8: 6-4, + 1.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 7: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 6: 5-5, - 0.59 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 4: 7-4, + 2.41 Units (11 Units Staked, + 21.91% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 0.55 Units (10 Units Staked, - 5.5% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.52 Units (11 Units Staked, + 4.73% Yield)
Season 2018: 39-31, + 4.35 Units
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