We have almost reached the halfway mark of the 2018 NFL season but the bigger story over the next few days is going to be the trade deadline with teams looking more active than they ever have before.
The Oakland Raiders look to be trading anything and everything that isn't nailed down and there are going to be some awkward moments for Derek Carr before the deadline passes next week.
Amari Cooper was the big move Oakland made this week as they somehow managed to persuade the Dallas Cowboys to give up a First Round Pick in the 2019 Draft for the Wide Receiver. To say Dallas have perhaps given up too much is an understatement and I am not sure that is going to the move that puts the Cowboys over the line to make the Play Offs.
It looks like the New York Giants have joined that party with the likes of Eli Apple and Damon Harrison both leaving for New Orleans and Detroit respectively after the Giants went down to another loss on Monday Night Football.
I have no doubt the Giants are regretting holding onto Eli Manning through this season and not looking to upgrade the Quarter Back play and this looks another lost season for them.
The Le'Veon Bel drama has moved through another week as he does everything possible to avoid being traded from the Pittsburgh Steelers with his contract hold out moving through the Steelers Bye Week.
And we have also heard the likes of Denver will also be involved in trade talks in the next few days.
Week 8 will see the final game played in London in the 2018 season and each game is becoming more important as we begin to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Some Divisions look to be more one-sided than others and there are a couple of Divisions that make me wonder if they should really be producing any Play Off team. However all of that could change in the weeks ahead as we begin to find teams picking up their momentum to take into January.
There are some big games to come in Week 8 and the Picks can be seen below.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: Thursday Night Football comes from Houston in Week 8 as my Miami Dolphins visit the Texans in a game that could have serious Play Off implications.
It was not something I was envisioning back at the start of the 2018 NFL season with Miami surpassing all expectations to 4-3, but the fast start has slowed down and the best the Dolphins can hope for is a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs. Even that feels a long shot for Miami whose fan base may have been hoping for a high Draft Pick rather than another middling season, but players and Head Coaches don't worry about anything other than job security for themselves.
The Dolphins will need to try and win this game through various injuries as they are missing key Receivers. The starting Quarter Back, Ryan Tannehill, is also out and that means Brock Osweiler will return to Houston after playing one forgettable season for the Texans.
Osweiler may feel more comfortable with Adam Gase helping him along and he has not played badly for Miami in his starts in relief of Tannehill. However Osweiler is not a long-term option for Miami and he is going to find it very difficult to move the chains without key Receivers Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills out of the line up.
Going up against the Houston Texans Defensive unit is going to be very tough for Osweiler who won't have many friends here. The Offensive Line has not really offered the protection that Osweiler would have wanted and this is a Texans team who have begun to use the pressure they have generated up front to force turnovers.
With little likelihood of getting much going on the ground, the Dolphins could have a very difficult day moving the chains with any consistency in this one. Asking back up Receivers make big plays in a short week is a long-shot and the Texans may not give up too many points here.
This is still a big spread when you consider the Deshaun Watson injury which means he could not fly to Jacksonville in Week 7 but had to be driven on a bus. That really doesn't sound too good, but Watson may only need to put up 14 points to cover this number and he should be good enough to at least put Houston in a position to do that.
Watson is going to miss Keke Coutee who has stepped up for the Offense, but Lamar Miller should find more room up front to get the running game going and keeping Watson in third and manageable spots in this game.
Miami's Defensive unit have been capable of turning the ball over and they do get a significant push up front which can't be ignored, but Watson should be able to do enough to score the points needed to win this game.
The public look to be behind Miami so opposing them is a bonus, while the better teams have tended to dominate the Thursday Night Football games with the little preparation time between games.
Houston look to be that team and Miami's injuries just make it all the tougher. There is no way the Texans Defensive unit are going to want to lose to Brock Osweiler which should make them that much more hungry in this one and I think it is that unit who will put them in a position to win and cover.
You can't deny that some of the Coaching for the Texans is not up to the standard you would expect and that means they are a poor team to back to cover any spread. However Miami are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight road games and I will look for the Texans to open up Week 8 with a win and a cover on Thursday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: When the three games were announced for the 2018 season to be played in London, this one between the Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles and AFC Championship Game Runners Up Jacksonville Jaguars looked the pick of the games.
However both teams have underachieved in the 2018 season and this is a big game for both to get back into contention in the NFC East and AFC South Divisions respectively.
The Jaguars are the host team and have become synonymous with London as a annual visitor to the United Kingdom to play a 'home' game over the last few years. That make give them an edge and turning back to Blake Bortles at Quarter Back is probably the right decision for Jacksonville considering how well he has played at Wembley Stadium.
It will be down to Bortles to make the plays to move the chains for the Jaguars and he can have some success in this one. Bortles is not expected to get a lot of support from the run game against this Eagles Defensive Line, but injuries have weakened the Secondary and Bortles can throw the ball with some success in this game.
The same can be said for Carson Wentz as long as the Eagles are not suffering a hangover from the disappointing home loss to the Carolina Panthers. Philadelphia blew a big lead in that game and fell apart in the Fourth Quarter, but this week they are facing a Jacksonville team who are short of confidence and who have perhaps been enjoying London a little too much.
There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that Wentz will feel he can expose and I do like the Eagles to beat a team who have enjoyed plenty of success in London. I expect to see Philadelphia have a little more balance on the Offensive side of the ball and I think they can work their way to a win by around a Touchdown.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: They may be one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the 2018 season, but the Kansas City Chiefs have yet to shake off the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West Divisional race. The Chiefs will be looking to keep the pressure on the rest of the Division by completing a second win over the Denver Broncos this season and also move up to 3-0 in AFC West games.
The first time these teams met it took a huge Fourth Quarter comeback from Kansas City to win in Mile High, although they were also helped by poor Quarter Back play from the criminally overpaid Case Keenum who was picked up this off-season after his first positive season with the Minnesota Vikings.
Keenum has some of the fans on his back after some inconsistent performances behind Center all season, but Chad Kelly's indiscretions saw him released from the team. That means there isn't a viable alternative for the fans to get behind and they have to stick with Keenum.
The Quarter Back had one of his better games in the Thursday Night Football win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 and that means he has had some additional time to prepare for this game. Case Keenum should have some success against the Kansas City Chiefs Defense which has not played up to the level of the Offensive unit in 2018.
Philipp Lindsay has formed part of a Committee at Running Back for the Broncos in 2018, but he should get the majority of the touches on Sunday with Royce Freeman expected to miss a couple of games. Lindsay has been one of the positives this season and he should be able to have some success against the Kansas City Defensive Line which has not been as strong against the run as they would like.
Keeping Denver in third and manageable should give Keenum a chance to find some of his big name Receivers but he has to be wary of the ball-hawking nature of the Chiefs Secondary. Kansas City have also been strong at getting pressure up front so there will be a real pressure on Keenum and the Denver Offensive Line whenever they are behind the chains.
The Broncos are going to need Keenum to have a strong game to stay with the Kansas City Chiefs who have scored at least 30 points in every game bar the first meeting with the Denver Broncos. They have managed to reach 40 plus points in their last couple of games and Patrick Mahomes has been a revelation for the Chiefs who traded away Alex Smith this off-season as a sure sign of how highly Andy Reid rates Mahomes.
Mahomes has not disappointed, but he may not need to have another 300 plus yard passing game in this one. The Denver Defensive Line have been terrible against the run so Kareem Hunt could be in line for a huge game for Kansas City, while Head Coach Reid is capable of getting the ball to the likes of Tyreek Hill in jet sweep looks that could see Kansas City moving the chains in chunks on the ground.
Denver have given up 148 yards per game at 5.3 yards per carry in 2018, but those numbers have been even worse in their last three games as they balloon to 220 yards per game at 6.8 yards per carry. The concern about the ability of Patrick Mahomes will mean Denver can't bring more men up to the line of scrimmage to protect against the run and I can see Kansas City having a huge Offensive game again.
Avoiding turnovers is key for Mahomes against a Denver Secondary who have made some big plays, but I do think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball efficiently all day.
This is a big spread when you think of how Denver could potentially control the clock on the ground, but I think the Chiefs will force a couple of errant throws from Case Keenum which can turn the tide in their favour. The last two home games Kansas City have had against Denver have seen them win by double digits each time.
Denver did cover at Arizona in Week 7, but they are 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen road games and they are 0-6 against the spread in the last six against the Chiefs. With Kansas City going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home, I will back the Chiefs to record another big win.
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders Pick: Jon Gruden was coaxed out of the commentary booth with the promise of a ten year contract with the Oakland Raiders and most felt he was going into a very strong situation. The Raiders might have been 6-10 in 2017, but the year before they had won double that amount of games and looked to have a decent young core of players.
That clearly isn't what Gruden has felt as Oakland have very much decided to reset and build the team in the mould the new Head Coach wants. Allowing Khalil Mack to be traded to the Chicago Bears has been a heavily criticised move with Gruden bemoaning a lack of a pass rush ever since giving up arguably the best Defensive End in the NFL.
Another trade was completed in the Bye Week as Amari Cooper was shipped off to the Dallas Cowboys for a First Round Draft Pick, but that has been a trade from which Gruden has been praised. With the Bears and Cowboys First Round Picks to add to their own, Oakland could get much better very quickly if they can make the right selections next April.
However all of these moves certainly means the remainder of 2018 may be a lost season for the Raiders who want to be a much more competitive team by the time they move to Las Vegas. There may be more moves to come before the trade deadline next Tuesday and that means it has to be difficult for the players to focus on Week 8 even out of a Bye Week.
Derek Carr is expected to remain with Oakland through the rest of this season, but it won't be a big surprise to see the Quarter Back moved on at the end of 2018. He does have a chance to help the Raiders score some points in Week 8 having overseen Oakland scoring a combined 13 points in their last couple of games, but Marshawn Lynch is out of the line up too and it might be all on Carr's shoulders.
They are facing an Indianapolis Colts team who have recovered from a losing run to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 and who will be looking to get back into contention in the AFC South by moving to 3-5 in the AFC South before their own Bye Week. The Colts have been stout up front with the Defensive Line being able to clamp down on Running Backs and that will put more pressure on Carr to perform with players and fans questioning the Quarter Back.
Carr has not been well protected by the Offensive Line and even a limited pass rush like the Indianapolis Colts possess could get after him if they can force Oakland into third and long situations. The Quarter Back has to worry about the Interceptions that Indianapolis have managed to pick up and he has to find Receivers without the presence of Cooper in the line up which could make it difficult to move the chains with any kind of consistency.
Moving the ball should not be a big problem for the Indianapolis Colts as long as they remain focused on the task at hand. I expect that will be the case with the team chasing the leaders in the AFC South and Andrew Luck is looking like he is getting back to his best after missing a number of months with injuries prior to the 2018 season.
Marlon Mack has been banged up at Running Back, but he should be good to go on Sunday and can provide a spark to open things up for Luck in the passing game. Mack should be able to trample on an Oakland Defensive Line who have really been worn down in each passing week this season and that should set Luck up to find the big plays down the field.
The return of TY Hilton is huge for Luck and I can see the two combining for a big game through the air as Oakland struggle to get any kind of pressure on the Quarter Back. Andrew Luck has shown he is capable of moving this Offensive unit up and down the field and I think the Colts are the right call even as a road favourite.
Indianapolis are 31-13 against the spread in their last forty-four games against a team with a losing record. I have to respect how strong Oakland have been coming out of their Bye Week in recent years, but the moves made must have affected the confidence of the players and I don't think they can keep up with the Colts in a shoot-out.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The Green Bay Packers go into Week 8 as the biggest underdog they have been in the Aaron Rodgers era when the Quarter Back is set to play. It won't surprise anyone to know the sharp money has come in on the Packers but they also look like being a public underdog in Week 8 as they get set to face the last unbeaten team in the NFL.
The Packers are in a tough NFC North with all four teams at 0.500 and the likes of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears looking very strong. It is going to be difficult to make the Play Offs without winning the Division, but the Packers are coming out of the Bye Week looking far healthier than when they went into it.
Aaron Rodgers looks like he could have almost fully recovered from the knee issues that have been blighting him in 2018. He was in full practice on Wednesday and Rodgers will also have been given a boost from the return of his full complement of Wide Receivers with Randall Cobb likely to be back in the starting line up too.
The Packers should feel that gives them every chance of challenging the Los Angeles Rams. They have been able to run the ball effectively enough and they should be able to challenge the Rams on the ground with the much vaunted Defensive Line of Los Angeles not playing as well as you would expect when it comes to stopping the run.
It will be important for Green Bay just so they have the balance for Aaron Rodgers to make his plays, but more importantly it could just ease off the powerful Los Angeles pass rush which can be a disruptive force. The Green Bay Offensive Line has not played as well they would like when it comes to protecting their Quarter Back, but Rodgers could help if he is feeling much better out of the Bye Week as he moves around the pocket.
There will definitely be some holes to exploit in the Los Angeles Secondary if Rodgers is given the time to throw downfield. The two big Corner Back signings Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are out or limited in Week 8 and Aaron Rodgers has to feel his Receivers can win those battles as Green Bay look to throw down the field.
While I expect Green Bay to move the chains, the Rams have been very strong Offensively thanks to Head Coach Sean McVay who is finding the right plays to put his team in a strong spot. Week 8 may be an easier game plan to put together with the Green Bay Defensive Line struggling against the run so I would expect to see a lot of Todd Gurley as Los Angeles look to control the clock and keep the chains moving.
Gurley has been having a great season and I think he will have another big game and that makes life much easier for Jared Goff at Quarter Back. Goff will need that support as he is likely to be faced with an intense pass rush if the Rams get behind the down and distance, while the Green Bay Secondary have just picked up their play prior to the Bye Week which could see them have some success against the likes of Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods.
Goff has just been a little looser with the ball in the last couple of games and that has to be a concern for the Rams against a team as strong as the Green Bay Packers. You don't want to be giving Rodgers and this Offensive unit extra possessions, but even then this is a lot of points for the Green Bay Packers to be getting as a head start.
Green Bay tend to be over-rated by the public and that has seen them produce some really poor numbers against the spread, but Aaron Rodgers should not be given over a Touchdown worth of points against any team. The Packers should come out of the Bye Week in better health and the Los Angeles Rams had won three games in a row by seven points or fewer before blowing out the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.
This is plenty of points for the Packers to be in receipt of and I will take the points on offer.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Sean Payton and the entire New Orleans Saints can tell anyone who listens that this game does not have a revenge factor in play, but it's simply not possible for players to ignore the events of January 2018. The Saints were leading in the NFC Divisional Round here against the Minnesota Vikings and Stefon Diggs grabbed what turned out to be a walk off Touchdown to send the Vikings through to the Championship Game.
The Saints have had to be thinking about that all summer and I am convinced they would have circled this game as soon as the schedule was released in April. Both teams are currently leading their respective Divisions so there are some Play Off implications on the line with a potential tie-breaker for a First Round bye as well as being able to host a Divisional Round Game at play.
We are still reaching the halfway mark of the season though and both the Saints and Vikings play in competitive Divisions that will need work to win. That means this game is very important to the winner to just keep their noses in front of their rivals and I think it could be a fun, high-scoring encounter between the teams.
Minnesota may have a winning record on the season as Kirk Cousins has given them an upgrade at Quarter Back, but the Defensive unit has been hit by injuries and are not playing to the standard they have set in the last few seasons under Mike Zimmer.
That could put some pressure on Cousins and the Offensive unit to move the chains and score the points to win the game. It will mainly be pressure on Cousins throwing the ball because Dalvin Cook is likely sitting another week and it will be tough for Latavius Murray against this New Orleans Defensive Line who have allowed 3.1 yards per carry over the course of the season.
Last season the Saints Secondary did take a step up with some rookies coming in and making an impact, but they won't find it easy to shut down Cousins, Diggs and an increasingly impressive Adam Thielen. The Quarter Back could be put under some pressure from the New Orleans pass rush, but I would still anticipate Cousins making some big plays through the air in what could develop into a shoot out.
The Defensive decline I have mentioned about the Vikings is likely going to be exposed even more by Drew Brees who has not dropped off his own level of performance as he continues to set new NFL records. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have offered some balance for New Orleans to make things even more comfortable for Brees, although the two Running Backs could struggle against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has stayed strong.
Drew Brees won't worry even if the Saints can't run the ball traditionally as he will make short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield who are dangerous out in space. The Minnesota pass rush has been effective, but Brees doesn't hold onto the ball for too long and his Receivers should be able to find holes in the Vikings Secondary that gives the Saints the chance to move the ball down the field.
The Vikings have won three straight games and they have played well in those games, but this is a big step up for them compared with games against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets.
The spread has flipped with New Orleans now a narrow favourite to win here and that does change the mentality of the players a little bit. However the Saints are 15-3 against the spread in their last eighteen road games against a team with a winning record at home and they are 17-5 against the spread in the last twenty-two road games.
New Orleans were a little fortunate to beat Baltimore last week, but this Minnesota Defensive unit isn't as strong as the Ravens one. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home, but I will back the New Orleans Saints to edge them out in the big Sunday Night Football primetime game.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 8 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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