Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 2-4)

The second round of Group games in both the Champions League and Europa League are being played this midweek before one more round of top flight Football across Europe comes this weekend.

That will wrap up this section of the season as we then enter a two week international break and for Manchester United fans it will be a testing time if the side can't put together a couple of wins at Old Trafford over the next few days.

It has been a turbulent time at Carrington and I will have my next 'United Corner' piece ready to go during the international break and prior to the Premier League visit to Stamford Bridge.


It is an important week coming up for United as well as the other English clubs in European action with all of the Champions League games looking very important. Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were beaten on Match Day 1 and need to bounce back immediately, while Liverpool can take a giant step towards the Second Round if they can win in Naples.

Qualifying from the Group as soon as possible could be a big advantage for Liverpool when we get closer to the extremely busy December period especially if Manchester City are being forced to fight for their place in the Last 16. Those two clubs also meet in a big Premier League game this Sunday which will determine which of those clubs go into the second international break of the season in top spot.

The Europa League Group Stages should be very manageable for Arsenal and Chelsea who can make it two wins from two on Thursday and continue to concentrate on what has been strong starts to the Premier League campaign.


September started off poorly for the Football Picks but the second half of the month was much better meaning back to back months with a positive return. Starting off October in a strong fashion will keep the momentum rolling and you can read my Midweek Football Picks below.


Hoffenheim v Manchester City Pick: The surprising results in this Group on Match Day 1 means Hoffenheim actually come into this fixture above Manchester City whose 1-2 home loss to Lyon means they are the only team chasing their first points in this section.

There won't be a rush of people backing Manchester City to miss out on the Second Round of the Champions League after the defeat to Lyon, but they have just tightened the margin for error in the Group. They certainly can't afford a second defeat in a row in the Champions League and extend a shocking run which has seen Manchester City lose 4 straight games in this competition and become the first English side to suffer through that.

Last season Manchester City showed they can perform away from home in the Champions League with 3 wins from 4 games played outside of England. They scored four goals in each of those wins in Feyenoord, Napoli and Basel and Manchester City are coming in off 3 straight wins since the defeat to Lyon.

The knock Sergio Aguero is playing through is a slight concern, but Manchester City will have noted how tough Hoffenheim have been having it this season since Julian Nagelsmann decided he will be moving on to Leipzig to take over as manager next season.

Hoffenheim did have a 9 game unbeaten run at home come to an end with a 1-2 loss to Leipzig this weekend and they have been conceding plenty of goals. They will believe they can challenge Manchester City with the attacking intent they have displayed, but Hoffenheim's surprising 2-2 draw at Shakhtar Donetsk has not changed my mind on where I see this team in the Group.

That was a very positive result, but Manchester City are a step above Shakhtar Donetsk and I do think they will win here. Hoffenheim may play their part by causing plenty of problems for their visitors when they build up some attacking momentum, but ultimately I think the English Champions will have too much quality all around for Hoffenheim.

I think that will lead to a relatively comfortable win on the scoreboard and I will back Manchester City to cover the Asian Handicap.


Juventus v Young Boys Pick: There have been some serious allegations made about Cristiano Ronaldo with the Las Vegas Police Department reinvestigating matters which have been making some headlines this week. Ronaldo won't be able to play in this fixture after being sent off on Match Day 1, but he is yet to fully invest himself in the allegations made.

Juventus will try and put any of those issues aside and concentrate on their football as they look to back up an important win over Valencia. Another on Tuesday will see the Old Lady in a very strong position to Qualify from this Group which looked quite tough on paper.

It would be a big surprise if Juventus are not good enough to beat Young Boys without Ronaldo and I am looking to back the Italian Champions to win with a comfortable margin too.

You can't ignore the fact that Juventus have never really hammered teams in the Champions League, even at home, as they make sure they do what they need to. That has seen relatively narrow wins over Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos here in the Champions League in recent years in the Group Stage which makes it a big tougher to trust Juventus to cover this Asian Handicap.

However Young Boys showed against Manchester United that there is a real gap to bridge to the very best teams in Europe and they have particularly struggled to impose themselves away from home. They look like being the dominant team in Switzerland again this season, but I would be surprised if Young Boys are very competitive in this one and I will back Juventus to win by at least two goals on the day.


Bayern Munich v Ajax Pick: Both of these clubs have a long and positive history in the European Cup with at least four trophies won by Bayern Munich and Ajax, although the latter are some way off those standards these days.

They might be catching Bayern Munich at the right time with the German Champions failing to win any of their last 2 games and they were beaten at Hertha Berlin over the weekend.

However there is enough quality in the Bayern Munich team to think they can bounce back and they are facing an Ajax team who simply aren't up to the level of the real elite of European Football. Ajax were also recently beaten 3-0 at PSV Eindhoven and I do worry about them when they face the very best teams.

Bayern Munich did not win their last 2 home Champions League games, but they had won their first 4 in the competition last season and all by at least two goal margins. The German Champions have been particularly dominant when it comes to home games in the Champions League Group Stage and they have tended to hammer those teams lower down the European food chain with big wins over those clubs.

Take away Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and you can see Bayern Munich have won 13 of their last 15 home Group games by at least two goal margins. It will be tough for this Ajax team to contain them I feel and I will back Bayern Munich to move into a commanding position in the Group with a solid win.


Lyon v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: One of the biggest surprises through the first round of matches in the Champions League Group Stage had to be the Lyon 1-2 win at Manchester City which has put the French side in a strong position in the Group already.

Manchester City are considered the team to beat in the Group so those points earned means Lyon will feel they have their own destiny in their hands going into the next four Champions League games.

Lyon have a very good recent home record in European competition with 7 wins in their last 10 home games. It will give them confidence against a Shakhtar Donetsk team who have lost 7 of their last 8 away Champions League games and who had to settle for a disappointing 2-2 home draw with Hoffenheim on Match Day 1.

I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a dangerous team who have to be respected, but Lyon have been in decent form over the last month and could have beaten Nantes this past weekend if not missing a late penalty. They have been scoring goals and I think Lyon back up their win over Manchester City be securing another vital three points here which will mean they are strong favourites to make it through to the Last 16.

The strong home record in recent European games adds to my belief in the French team and I will back them to win here.


Roma v Viktoria Plzen Pick: It was something of a 'no show' from Roma in their trip to Real Madrid on Match Day 1 as they were completely outplayed, but this is the Group Stage and most will expect the Italian club to bounce back.

That 3-0 loss to Real Madrid has been a part of what can only be described as a pretty poor start to the new season for a club that reached the Champions League Semi Final a few months ago. However there have been signs Roma are about to bounce back having recorded 2 big wins at home over the last seven days in the Italian top flight.

They will be expected to make it three in a row when they face Viktoria Plzen and Roma certainly have the goals in the squad to do that. Roma have now scored at least twice in all 4 home games played in the 2018/19 season, while they have extended their run to scoring at least twice in 8 of their last 9 here.

It doesn't bode well for Viktoria Plzen who have lost 4-0 at Slavia Prague and 3-0 at Jablonec in their last couple of away games. They have looked the weakest team in the Group and blowing a 2-0 lead at home against CSKA Moscow on Match Day 1 puts Viktoria Plzen in a difficult position.

This is another step up for Viktoria Plzen and I am not sure they are going to be able to make it against a Roma team who have won their last 5 Champions League games at home. Roma did struggle to put away Qarabag last season, but they did beat Chelsea, Barcelona and Liverpool by two or more goal margins.

I will back Roma to bounce back from their defeat to Real Madrid and win a third straight home game in all competitions by two or more goals.


Paris Saint-Germain v Crvena Zvezda Pick: I don't think I was the only one who was disappointed with the level of performance Paris Saint-Germain produced in their 3-2 loss to Liverpool on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage. They looked like a team that are not going to be able to challenge the elite of European Football, but you can't dismiss them out of hand with the talent Paris Saint-Germain put onto the field in every match they play.

They have certainly shown they can dominate those teams lower down the food chain and heavy wins over the likes of Celtic and Anderlecht twelve months ago underlines that point.

I would expect Paris Saint-Germain, who have scored at least three goals in every home game they have played so far in the 2018/19 season, to be far too good for Crvena Zvezda in this early kick off on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors are best known as Red Star Belgrade and are a former European Cup winner, but that was a long time ago and Crvena Zvezda have slipped from those standards of years gone by. Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is a huge achievement for them already and the draw with Napoli shows they can be hard to break down, although that match could have gone considerably differently if Napoli had taken the early chances they had fashioned.

Paris Saint-Germain are usually very clinical at home and so I am not anticipating them missing the same kind of opportunities as Napoli did. An early goal could see this fixture head in a similar manner as to Paris Saint-Germain's home wins over Anderlecht and Celtic in the Group Stage last season and I will back the French Champions to cover a big Asian Handicap and get this Group back on track.


Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: They may have won the Europa League last season but don't for one second believe Atletico Madrid were not embarrassed with their Group Stage exit in the Champions League. This is a team who have been very close to winning the competition over the last few years so the premature exit was a real surprise to everyone associated with the club.

They won't make the same mistakes this time around and showed that by coming from behind to beat Monaco 1-2 on Match Day 1.

However there is still something for Atletico Madrid to prove having failed to beat Qarabag in either Champions League Group game last season and so they won't be overlooking Club Brugge.

Atletico Madrid have been very good at home in Europe in general and they continue to be a tough team to break down. I think Diego Simeone will be looking to make sure they remain defensively sound in the belief that they will break down a Club Brugge team who have been a poor traveller at this level.

Scoring goals against better opposition has been a challenge for Club Brugge too and it is telling that 5 of their last 6 away defeats have come in matches they have not been able to score. Club Brugge have only scored in 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games too and I think Atletico Madrid remain the masters of the 'Win to Nil' at home and will back them to do that in this fixture.


Borussia Dortmund v Monaco Pick: Things have changed considerably for Monaco since they beat Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2017 in a tie that will be remembered for the blasts near the Dortmund coach which injured a couple of the players.

The Monaco team who played that Quarter Final have been broken up with key players now residing in Manchester and Paris and the poor form to open the season has to be a concern. They have already been beaten at home by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, but the domestic form has been even more worrying as Monaco have slipped into the bottom three in France.

It is not ideal preparation for a visit to Borussia Dortmund who have been in good form to open the season.

At home they have been particularly strong with 3 straight wins and scoring at least three goals in each of those games. It is the kind of form that makes Borussia Dortmund very dangerous and I think they could overwhelm Monaco in this one and I do like the home team to win the fixture.

Covering the Asian Handicap won't be easy for Borussia Dortmund who have won 1 of their last 6 home European ties, but they are scoring plenty of goals and may be facing Monaco at the right time.


Porto v Galatasaray Pick: Group D in the Champions League looks the weakest one by some distance and I would imagine whichever two teams go through to the Last 16 won't be lasting much longer than that.

In saying that, Porto and Galatasaray won't be worrying what anyone thinks of the standard of the Group and are simply going to be fighting tooth and nail for a vital three points.

You have to give the edge to Porto in front of what is usually a loud home support and they are facing a Galatasaray team that hasn't played a lot of European Football over the last couple of years. Like many Turkish clubs, Galatasaray are also not the best travellers in Europe and they have lost their last 4 away European ties ahead of this one.

Their 3-0 home over Lokomotiv Moscow was a huge result for Galatasaray, but the challenge here is much bigger. Porto have only won 2 of their last 5 home Champions League games but both of those have come by margins of two or more goals and I think they will be able to do the same here.

I will back Porto to cover the Asian Handicap on Match Day 2.


Napoli v Liverpool Pick: This Group looked a tough one on paper when it was drawn in August, but Liverpool can take a big step towards the Last 16 of the Champions League if they can win in Naples.

Last season Liverpool showed they can be very dangerous away from home in this competition with their ability to score plenty of goals and that has to be a concern for Napoli. The last time an English side came to Naples Manchester City hit four goals in a victory in the Champions League Group Stage twelve months ago, but Liverpool can also be vulnerable defensively.

That was underlined in their 4-2 loss at Roma in the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg and Napoli have to be confident having won all 3 home games under new manager Carlo Ancelotti. Goals haven't been a problem for Napoli and this has the makings of an entertaining game with both clubs better going forward than looking to sit back and defend in numbers.

Napoli's failure to beat Crvena Zvezda on Match Day 1 has put the pressure on them to win all 3 home games in the Group if they want to try and work their way into the Last 16. That won't be lost on the manager and I think the attacking play will lead to some chances for Liverpool too and I think they can combine for a few goals in this one.

There is a feeling the Liverpool strikers are slightly out of form, but they continue to create a host of chances and both teams may in a position to help produce at least four goals on the night.


Bayer Leverkusen v AEK Larnaca Pick: In recent years Bayer Leverkusen have become a familiar name in the Champions League, but they missed out this season and have had to settle for a place in the Europa League.

This is a competition in which they could thrive if Bayer Leverkusen give it the due care and attention they should and the 2-3 win at Ludogorets on Match Day 1 suggests that may be the case.

They have not made the best start to the Bundesliga, but Bayer Leverkusen have faced both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich already. I expect an improvement from Bayer Leverkusen going forward and they can pick up a morale boosting win on Thursday.

AEK Larnaca are unlikely to roll over for Leverkusen, but this is a team who have already been beaten by Zurich in the Group and have done well to get to this Stage of the Europa League.

They have won 2 of their last 8 away games in this competition, but those have come in the Qualifying Rounds and this should prove to be a big step up for AEK Larnaca. I expect that to show up on the scoreboard too and I will back the home team to win on the Asian Handicap.


Salzburg v Celtic Pick: Brendan Rodgers is perhaps considering his future as Celtic manager with the financial constraints on him and the players perhaps losing a little belief in his methods showing up in the results the club have been earning. Everything seems to be hard work for Celtic at the moment and confidence looks to be at a low point with the club sitting in 5th place in the Scottish Premiership.

They might be able to express themselves with some freedom in Austria as the underdog, but Celtic have lost 4 of their last 7 away European ties and the lack of goals overall is a real concern.

The point is underlined when you think of how strong Salzburg have been all season and they have gotten over the real disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage. The away goals defeat was a real upset for Salzburg considering they reached the Europa League Quarter Final last season, but this is a team that could have another big impact at this level.

Home form is critical for Salzburg and I do think they can back up the impressive 2-3 win in Leipzig from Match Day 1. The side have won 13 of their last 14 home games and scored at least twice in all but one of those games so they clearly have the firepower to do away with Celtic here.

Celtic did earn a 2-2 draw in Salzburg in the 2014/15 Europa League Group Stage, but they don't look to have enough goals to do the same this time around. I will look for the more confident Salzburg team to wear down Celtic and eventually cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Qarabag v Arsenal Pick: The Europa League may not be a top priority for English clubs over the years but Manchester United proved it is a competition that can be won and a strong way back into the Champions League.

By hook or by crook getting back into the Champions League is all important for Arsenal this season and Unai Emery has admitted he would prefer to do that by winning the Europa League than finishing in the top four. His team selection on Match Day 1 and the squad travelling to Azerbaijan has underlined the importance the manager attaches to the Europa League and he is a serial winner of the competition from his time as manager of Sevilla.

A strong Arsenal team should be good to win in Qarabag even if the home team should be respected for drawing with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage last season. In that same section they were beaten by Roma and Chelsea with the English club running away with a dominant 0-4 win here.

Qarabag will have learnt some lessons from that defeat, but they look like a team who will struggle to deal with the speed of play Arsenal put together in the final third. Even so, Qarabag could potentially cause one or two problems of their own considering how Arsenal have yet to really fix their defensive issues despite the 7 game winning run they are enjoying.

The Gunners should have too much firepower though and can make up for their defensive shortcomings in this one. I respect Qarabag as they have rarely been blown away at home in European competition, but I do think Arsenal may have too much for them and can win by a couple of goals on the day.


Bordeaux v Kobenhavn Pick: Both Bordeaux and Kobenhavn failed to win their opening Group game in the Europa League this season which means there should be a little more pressure on the players to respond on Match Day 2.

There isn't as much between these teams as there would be between Kobenhavn and one of the stronger clubs in the French top flight, but I do still think Bordeaux should have the slight edge.

Home advantage only increases that edge and Bordeaux have been playing well here so far this season with 4 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. They might be facing Kobenhavn at the right time as the Danish club have slipped to defeat in 2 of their last 3 away games and the step up to the Europa League level is still a significant one for them.

I have to respect the fact that Kobenhavn knocked out Atalanta in the Play Off Round of the Europa League to enter the Group Stage. They battled to a goalless draw in Italy so can dig in to upset Bordeaux here, but the hosts have been scoring enough goals to think they can pick up the three points.

It may be close at times and both teams will need a bit of fortune, but I will look for Bordeaux to have home advantage tell in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Slavia Prague Pick: In usual weeks you could see Zenit St Petersburg and Slavia Prague being given one more day to recover from Europa League action and have their next League fixture moved to a Monday. That won't be the case this week with the international break upcoming and that raises a few more doubts as to the team selection of the managers.

There are more question marks about Zenit St Petersburg who face Krasnodar this weekend, the team currently closest to them in the Russian top flight standings. That is a big game for a club looking to return to the top of Russian Football, but Zenit St Petersburg could only force a draw on Match Day 1 of the Europa League so know the importance of winning this one too.

Zenit St Petersburg have been very good in the Europa League with 7 wins from their last 8 home games in this competition. That is plenty of reason to believe they will pick a team capable of beating a Slavia Prague team who have not travelled that well in European Football although one that did earn a surprising away draw at Villarreal last season in the Group.

I don't think Slavia Prague roll over for Zenit St Petersburg, but this is a tough place to play. They have three points on the board in the Group so there may be less pressure on Slavia Prague, but ultimately I think being at home gives Zenit St Petersburg enough of an edge to win this one.

Team news may be worth keeping an eye on, but I will back Zenit St Petersburg to win this game.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Lazio Pick: Both of these teams have made a positive start to the Europa League Group which also contains a tough Marseille team.

With wins on Match Day 1, the winner of this game between Eintracht Frankfurt and Lazio will put themselves in a commanding position to reach the Last 32 with a victory on Match Day 2.

Goals have been flowing in matches involving these teams in the last couple of weeks and that could be the case when they play one another. The win they have already earned in the Group could see the teams playing with some freedom in this one with the next three points putting them in such a strong position in the Group.

4 of the 6 away Europa League games Lazio played last season ended with three or more goals shared out and they have been scoring and conceding plenty in recent games. 5 of the last 6 Eintracht Frankfurt games have also featured at least three goals shared out and I will look for these teams to combine for that number in this one too.


Rangers v Rapid Vienna Pick: Progressing in the Europa League through to the Knock Out Rounds could be a big achievement for Rangers and a progressive development for the club in general. Steven Gerrard has made it clear he wants to do well in every competition Rangers play and the 2-2 draw in Villarreal should give them plenty of confidence going forward.

Backing it up with a home win over Rapid Vienna is the key for Rangers if they have serious ambitions of making it through and they have played well enough at Ibrox to do that.

Rangers have won 4 of their 5 home Europa League games played in the last eighteen months and the draw in Villarreal was another positive result for them. Now they face a Rapid Vienna team who have been struggling away from home in recent games and who have a poor away European record with 6 losses from their last 9 away Europa League games.

I am a little concerned that Gerrard is perhaps going to be focusing on the big League games against Hearts to come this weekend, but Rangers have been strong at home throughout 2018/19. The manager will want this to be a difficult ground for any club to visit so will be looking to keep the momentum behind his players and I do think Rangers will edge out Rapid Vienna in this one.

The Austrian side have a lot more European experience than Rangers, but they simply haven't travelled well and I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.


Sarpsborg v Genk Pick: Sarpsborg have surprised many domestically and also would have raised some eyebrows throughout the Europa League competition by making their way through four Qualifying Rounds in their maiden European campaign. It might have taken a toll on the players though and 7 straight losses in all competitions underlines that point.

However I expect the adrenaline to be pumping from the players to the fans as they play their first home Group Stage game in the Europa League. That should give the players a boost, but it may not be enough to beat an in-form Genk team who are looking to make it two wins out of two in the Group.

Genk are still chasing Club Brugge domestically, but they have been in very good form overall and 18 wins in their last 21 games is an impressive return. It has been just as good away from home where they have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun having racked up 26 in that 8 game unbeaten run.

They are a team experienced in Europe and who have won 5 of their last 7 away Europa League games too and I think that experience can help Genk get the better of a team who have been treading water in recent games.

I do think Sarpsborg can offer some problems being at home where they have won 3 of their 4 Europa League games. However you can't ignore the really poor form they are in and they have conceded at least twice in their last 3 home games.

With the goals Genk are scoring I will look for the visitors to win a fixture that features two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juventus - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roma - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayer Leverkusen - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bordeaux @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt-Lazio Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Genk & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

September 2018: 26-24, + 3.62 Units (100 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
August 2018: 15-12, + 3.10 Units (54 Units Staked, + 5.74% Yield)