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Saturday, 27 October 2018

Boxing Picks 2018- Regis Prograis vs Terry Flanagan (October 27th)

With the new streaming services entering the world of Boxing it does feel like there are more cards being televised than ever before and that can only be good news for the fans.

Of course it can be taxing on the wallet if you want to watch all the fights, but at least in the United Kingdom the majority of the main cards that are of interest are shown on already subscribed for channels. Anyone who has a Sky Sports subscription will be getting the majority of cards being shown on DAZN, although I do think this will end up being a partnership that develops and leads to Sky wanting more money from their subscribers in the years ahead, especially if DAZN grows.

Box Nation is once again picking up more cards after a lull over the last few months which led to rumours that the channel was about to close. BT Sport have taken over the majority of the bigger cards though so I do wonder how long Box Nation will be able to survive in an increasingly competitive market.

One disappointment so far for us UK fans is the lack of television coverage of the World Boxing Super Series which has Season Two firmly underway. Those fights are being broadcast for free on social media, but next weekend there is a big card from Glasgow and I would not be surprised if that is picked up by someone.

No matter what, this is a great time to be a Boxing fan and Saturday is no different with a number of interesting fights taking place in four different locations.


Isaac Chamberlain vs Luke Watkins
This has to be considered a crossroads fight for both Isaac Chamberlain and Luke Watkins who are both coming into this one off the back of losses to Lawrence Okolie.

The Chamberlain fight with Okolie was a really boring one as the headline on a card at the O2 Arena and it was a comfortably points win for the latter. There is some pressure on Chamberlain to bounce back and prove that it was just a bad day in the office for him, but he has made a number of changes to his team and Chamberlain has to show he can produce much better than he did in his loss to Okolie.

Luke Watkins was also beaten by Okolie but that came in a Three Round destruction and he really did look out of his depth that day. I don't know how much of that was down to the pressure of the day and whether Watkins just froze in the moment, but another defeat like that would likely mean he is facing a really road to travel to get back to where he is on Saturday.

It does feel like Watkins will have the edge in power, but Chamberlain is the better boxer and I would expect his height and reach to be a difference maker. Chamberlain showed he can smother work of the big hitters as he did against Okolie, but he has to show he has some pop to earn the respect of those fighters if he is going to progress in his career.

I think Chamberlain will want to show he has some power of his own and he did have three straight stoppages before the defeat to Okolie. He should want to impress after helping stink out the O2 Arena, but ultimately the key for Chamberlain is to win the fight and get back to the positive feelings that will bring.

It feels like Watkins will be the bigger puncher in the fight, but I expect Chamberlain to control him much better than he could against the taller and rangier Okolie. In a Ten Rounder I think Chamberlain will win 8-2 in Rounds and he can walk away with a Unanimous Decision.


Ted Cheeseman vs Asinia Byfield
There is a full card at the Copper Box Arena in London on Saturday evening, but the fight that might have the most attention on it comes from the Light Middleweight Division.

Ted Cheeseman is the more well known of the two fighters, but Asinia Byfield seems to have gotten under his skin and that could see the two mix it up.

Both have been promising an early night for the other, but I don't think Byfield is going to want to be drawn into a war with a big puncher like Cheeseman.

Instead I think Byfield will try and box and make things as awkward as possible for Cheeseman while putting some Rounds in the bank. Irritating Cheeseman may be a tactic to get the favourite to push forward and leave himself open to the big counter shots, but I don't think an aggressive Cheeseman will mind getting on the front foot as that is where he can do his best work.

I expect Cheeseman to work the body early and just get Byfield to slow down and I do wonder of the year out of the ring is going to hurt Byfield here. In that time Cheeseman has picked up three wins and Byfield did miss the weight in the first instance which may also suggest he is going to just have a few physical issues in this one.

If he is feeling tight at the weight the body shots will do more than just slow Byfield down and I do think Cheeseman has the time in the Twelve Rounds to break down his opponent and earn the stoppage. Only three of his last five fights have been stoppages (another ended early but was a Disqualification), but I won't hold anything against Cheeseman for failing to stop the tough veteran Carson Jones.

I am not sure Byfield is going to be able to stand up to the likely onslaught he will face over the course of this fight and I think Cheeseman will slow him down early before getting a lot more success as the fight wears on. With a few extra Rounds to find the stoppage, I think Cheeseman gets this done inside the distance.


Ryan Doyle vs Jordan Gill
There has been some real talk about the talented Jordan Gill and what he is going to be able to achieve in the sport, but he is facing a real test of those credentials when he faces Ryan Doyle for the Commonwealth Featherweight Title.

The last time we saw Ryan Doyle he was stopping the previously unbeaten Reece Bellotti back in June and that was a great fight to watch. Doyle was very impressive in the victory and fully deserved the stoppage when it came so Gill will have to be wary of the obvious power that is going to come at it.

Jordan Gill is a boxer and there are big things expected of him and he would expect to guide away from the Doyle power and work his way to a points win with both fighters going the Twelve Rounds for the first time.

You can't deny this is a step up for Gill and there will be some pressure with the expectation that surrounds him, but I think he will thrive in it.

He doesn't look to have the power to become the third fighter to stop Doyle but I think Gill will weather the early storm and then box his way to a 116-112 kind of decision.


Kubrat Pulev vs Hughie Fury
In another dimension Kubrat Pulev would have fought for the World Title against Anthony Joshua in October 2017.

One year later he is trying to get back into a mandatory position when he takes on Hughie Fury in a final eliminator in Bulgaria.

This fight is being criminally ignored by many of the leading sports sites in the United Kingdom with the Tyson Fury fight the only Fury the media seem to be interested at the moment. Hughie won't worry about that and will admit that Tyson's shot at WBC kingpin Deontay Wilder is a bigger fight, but this can set Hughie Fury up for a big night or two in 2019.

Last year he came up short against Joseph Parker in a controversial fight and Fury has admitted he learned a lot from it. If he had won perhaps he would have been having the big paydays against Joshua and Dillian Whyte that Parker had, but I also think Hughie has more belief than the New Zealander that he should be a World Champion.

Win this fight and there is every chance we could see a Joshua vs Fury fight in 2019 even if it is perhaps not the one the majority of fans would want to see.

Going on the road to win a fight is not easy, but the Fury camp have plenty of experience doing that and I do think Hughie may be facing Kubrat Pulev at the right time.

All credit has to be given to the Bulgarian for the career he has had, but he has been out of the ring for almost eighteen months and at 37 years old that can be tough for any boxer. This is also just his sixth fight since his World Title shot against Wladimir Klitschko and Pulev needed a Split Decision to beat Dereck Chisora while also having a Unanimous Decision over Kevin Johnson in April 2017.

Hughie Fury was perhaps not as active as he should have been against Parker in his defeat to the Kiwi, but I expect he will let his hands go a little more in this one. He looked much more aggressive against Sam Sexton when destroying him for the British Title, but I expect a little more caution in this one against a former World Title challenger.

I think Fury can do it though against a veteran who I think has to be on the slide in his career. As long as he isn't looking to just move but actually countering and picking his spots to get on the front foot, I think even the home judges will find it hard to avoid giving Fury the Decision and perhaps set up a big fight with Anthony Joshua in the next twelve months.


Regis Prograis vs Terry Flanagan
The World Boxing Super Series Season Two continues on Saturday and the latest stop is in New Orleans where home fighter Regis Prograis is the favourite to win the Light Welterweight tournament that has been put together.

Personally I am leaning towards Josh Taylor to become a star over the next twelve months, but Prograis has to be the favourite to reach the Final from the top half of the draw.

He faces Manchester's Terry Flanagan who lost his first professional fight in June to Maurice Hooker as he moved up from Lightweight to chase bigger fights. Flanagan has a decent reputation but there is a question of whether his level of competition has really been up to the standard you would have expected of someone who had won 33 fights in a row before the upset defeat to Hooker in a Split Decision.

Maurice Hooker was the right winner that day and it may be a surprise to see Flanagan go straight into this tournament off a loss. This is also a considerable step up for him even if Regis Prograis has yet to show he really is someone as good as he has looked.

Ultimately that will only be shown up if Prograis can win this tournament and beat some of the big names in the Division. There is clearly some pop that Prograis hits with and that has to be a worry for Flanagan who has to be considered as someone who will try and box his way through the Rounds.

Fighting out of the southpaw stance will mean Flanagan can give Prograis something to think about, but the home town hero should eventually start producing the pressure and power to break down the Englishman.

Prograis did destroy Julius Indongo in Two Rounds which is a concern for Flanagan, but I think the latter is a little younger and should be able to battle through some early awkward moments. However I don't think Flanagan is going to be able to hold off Prograis who has never heard the bell for the Ninth Round.

It might be disrespectful to Flanagan but I think backing Prograis to get this done somewhere between the Fourth and Sixth Round is where I would go with this fight. Much will depend on how durable Flanagan is, but he is up in weight compared with the majority of his career and Prograis looks like he punches very hard for the Light Welterweights and will likely come out firing from the First Round.

The Number 1 Seed in this tournament looks very highly motivated to perform on Saturday and I think he gets this fight done relatively early.

MY PICKS: Isaac Chamberlain by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jordan Gill by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Hughie Fury by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Regis Prograis to Win Between 4-6 @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 31-54, + 16.44 Units (133 Units Staked, + 12.36% Yield)

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