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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (October 23-25)

There is still one more international break to come between now and March, but this is a big month for teams in the Champions League and Europa League as they play a pivotal two games that begin to separate those teams chasing Knock Out spots and those who may be heading out of either competition.

Of course the third place team in the Champions League Group Stage will drop down into the Europa League, but that is not the ambition of the clubs in that competition.

All of the English clubs have work to do in the Champions League with none of the four teams involved earning more than four points from their first two Group games. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have double headers against the weakest team in their Group so will be expected to get their Champions League back on track after losing three of the four games they have played combined.

Manchester City will be confident of securing at least four points against Shakhtar Donetsk which will erase the disappointment of losing to Lyon on Match Day 1. Anything less and there will be a lot of work to do for a team whose own manager doesn't believe are ready to win the Champions League, although I do think Pep Guardiola is trying to deflect the pressure from his players.

Their cross town rivals Manchester United have the toughest of the double headers for the English clubs as they face Italian Champions Juventus twice. There is pressure on United having failed to beat Valencia at home on Match Day 2 and anything less than two points over the next two weeks may not be good enough for Manchester United in what has been a tough campaign so far.


The Europa League has bee much more comfortable for the English teams as both Arsenal and Chelsea have won their opening two Group games. Both clubs will be looking to secure their passage through to the Last 32 of the Europa League before the next international break which will give their managers plenty of opportunity to keep players fresh for the hectic period that comes immediately out of the November international break through to the New Year.

Rangers and Celtic are also involved in the Europa League Group Stage and both teams will feel they can get out of their difficult Groups after securing at least three points each from the first two games. Rangers look in the stronger position with four points secured and with a home game to come this week, but things can change quickly.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United which was posted before the positive performance at Stamford Bridge. You can read that here.


AEK Athens v Bayern Munich Pick: It can be hard to back a team like Bayern Munich who have been going through a relative crisis, especially when you know the layers are not going to give anything away with them.

No matter the form Bayern Munich are going to be favoured in almost every game they play and that can see some poor value being placed on them.

I am not sure that is the case in this Champions League tie though with Bayern Munich looking considerably stronger than AEK Athens who have conceded three goals in losing to both Ajax and Benfica. The 2-3 home loss to Benfica came in a game where their visitors had been reduced to ten men for the entirety of the second half and yet AEK Athens came up short.

And for all the negatives around Bayern Munich it should be remembered that they have won 5 of their last 6 on their travels in all competitions this season. Bayern Munich won 0-2 at Benfica on Match Day 1 and that result has seen them win 5 of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and the side have scored at least twice in each of those wins.

Injuries are affecting the possibility of squad rotation for Bayern Munich who are an ageing team, but they should still be far too good for AEK Athens.

This is a big handicap for Bayern Munich to cover considering the poor recent run they had been on before beating Wolfsburg at the weekend. However I also think AEK Athens are considerably weaker than the usual level of opponent they will come up against and I will back the German Champions to put themselves in a very strong position in this Champions League Group with a big win.


Manchester United v Juventus Pick: This really does feel like the biggest European night at Old Trafford since Manchester United faced Bayern Munich in the Champions League Quarter Final in April 2018. There has been a Europa League Semi Final played at Old Trafford since that Quarter Final, but the big European nights involve the big names and Manchester United versus Juventus does bring back memories of past momentous occasions.

It is almost twenty years since Manchester United beat Juventus on their way to the Treble, but the clubs look to be in different spots these days. While Manchester United are scrambling to get back amongst the elite of European Football, Juventus are one of the favourites to win the Champions League.

Signing Cristiano Ronaldo shows the ambition of Juventus and he will return to Old Trafford for only the second time as an opposition player since leaving Manchester United in 2009.

Ronaldo will form the main danger for Juventus, but there are plenty of other threats carried by the Italian Champions who are favoured to win at Old Trafford. Juventus have scored at least twice in 4 straight away Champions League games and they have managed to do the same in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions in the 2018/19 season.

The struggles Manchester United have had defensively is a real concern in this fixture, but Jose Mourinho will be more encouraged by the attacking threat Manchester United have posed in their last couple of games. That includes at Stamford Bridge on Saturday and I do think Manchester United will cause problems for an ageing Juventus defence.

Both teams could play their part in this one and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing goals in this game on Match Day 3 of the Champions League.

I think Manchester United are better going forward than defending and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals. The Juventus defence is still a daunting one to break down and they have kept 3 consecutive away clean sheets, but Manchester United should always pose a threat at home and the pace in the forward line should be a concern for Juventus to deal with.

Manchester United as a home underdog is appealing, but Juventus' superb recent away record in the Champions League has to be respected and backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call.


Roma v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Champions League Group has been blown open by CSKA Moscow's 1-0 win over Real Madrid on Match Day 2 which means the Russian side top the section with 4 points over the European Champions and Roma who both have 3 points on the board.

While it is still expected that Real Madrid will do enough to get out of the Group beginning with a couple of wins over Viktoria Plzen, both Roma and CSKA Moscow now get into a big double header against one another.

The team who take the most points over the next couple of weeks are likely going to join Real Madrid in the Last 16 and there is some pressure on Roma considering CSKA Moscow got 'bonus' points with the win over Real Madrid.

The 0-2 home loss to SPAL would have hurt Roma, but they can bounce back this week with their strong home record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months not to be underestimated. Of course CSKA Moscow need to be respected considering their own strong run of away results in Europe, but they were 2-0 down at Viktoria Plzen on Match Day 1 and Roma are a much better side than the Czech team.

Roma do score plenty of goals at home usually and so I won't worry too much about the result against SPAL this past weekend. They should be able to dictate the play in this one and CSKA Moscow will have to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to get a result here.

I backed Roma on Match Day 2 in their home game with Viktoria Plzen and I will go back to the same market here. They have scored enough goals to think they can cover the Asian Handicap against a CSKA Moscow team who were beaten 4-1 at Arsenal in the Europa League a few months ago.


Club Brugge v Monaco Pick: Two clubs who have lost both Champions League games played so far this season will be meeting in this early kick off on Match Day 3 and it does feel they are already competing for third place and a spot in the Europa League.

Thierry Henry will be taking charge of his first match in the Champions League and only his second in charge of Monaco on Wednesday. He has plenty of work to do with a Monaco team who have lost confidence and look like they are very vulnerable at the back.

The first task for Henry is to make the players believe in their ability again, but Monaco might already be considering the importance of domestic matters over European commitments. It could be something that is more obvious in the weeks ahead, but for now Henry has to be looking for any kind of win to give the Monaco players a shot in the arm.

It won't be easy to achieve in Brugge against the Belgian Champions who have been competitive in their two losses in the Champions League. There is a difference in level of quality which has to be bridged, but Club Brugge should be playing with more confidence than their visitors even if their own recent results have not been as good as expected.

Club Brugge do have a poor record in the Champions League which can't be ignored, but they have a team that can get forward and cause problems. Against this Monaco defence I would expect the home team to create chances and score goals, but their own defence should be challenged by a Monaco team who have scored in their last couple of games.

The absence of Radamel Falcao hurts Monaco, but I think both teams can contribute to an attacking game of football and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the way to go.


PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur have lost both Champions League Group Stage games played this season and there is little doubt that they will be chasing two wins from this double header.

Anything less would put both teams in a very difficult position to make the Last 16 of the Champions League and I think there will be regrets at both clubs.

They have both been beaten 2-1 by Inter Milan, but both PSV Eindhoven and Tottenham Hotspur took the lead against the Italian club. At least Tottenham Hotspur can point to the fact they have to host Inter Milan as they look to get back on track in the Champions League, but that will all be for nought if they can't beat PSV twice.

It won't be easy to win in the Netherlands as PSV Eindhoven will be playing with the confidence that comes from having won all nine Dutch League games. There is a big step up to the Champions League, but Ajax have shown it can be bridged and Tottenham Hotspur are not in dominant form at the moment.

At least there are some key players back for Tottenham Hotspur with both Hugo Lloris and Christian Eriksen set to play in this one after the 0-1 win over West Ham United at the weekend. Spurs could thank Lloris for that victory and they will need their goalkeeper to be at his best in this one as they look for a vital win on the road.

PSV Eindhoven will be a threat going forward, but I am not convinced about them defensively and Tottenham Hotspur should be good enough to expose those vulnerabilities.

The first goal should be critical in this fixture even if both teams have blown leads in the Champions League already this season. Tottenham Hotspur have scored enough away goals in the competition to deserve favouritism and I do think they can win here as they should have done in Milan on Match Day 1.

At odds against Tottenham Hotspur can be chanced to secure a vital three points in Eindhoven.


Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda Pick: There have been reports that a high Ranking official at Crvena Zvezda placed a huge bet on his team losing by exactly five goals at Paris Saint-Germain which is being investigated at the moment.

That investigation will play out, but I am not of the belief that something fishy went on in that game as Paris Saint-Germain were just a lot stronger than Crvena Zvezda.

Some will say it would look that way if their visitors were not trying, but the little I saw that day didn't suggest a team wasn't giving it their all, but simply Crvena Zvezda were being outclassed in a game they were expected to struggle in.

That could be the case again on Wednesday as they face a Liverpool team that look like they are not far away from really hammering someone. The 0-1 win at Huddersfield Town was a close one for Liverpool, but they had chances to seal that game emphatically if producing better in the final third.

With both Roberto Firmino and potentially Sadio Mane back in the starting line up Liverpool could more clinical with the chances that come their way. Last season Liverpool destroyed Spartak Moscow at home and they also recorded a comfortable win over Maribor in the Group Stage, although this Asian Handicap is a big one to cover.

It's that much bigger when you think of Liverpool's recent struggles in front of goal over the last month, but the quality of opponent has to be factored in. Take away Huddersfield Town and Liverpool have faced teams of a much higher level than Crvena Zvezda during their poor run of form and it is no surprise they haven't blown away the likes of Chelsea, Napoli and Manchester City.

Crvena Zvezda will try and frustrate Liverpool as long as possible, but I am not sure they will be able to contain their hosts. If they concede inside the first 20 minutes it could be a very long day for the Serbian Champions and I will back Liverpool to win this one big.


Paris Saint-Germain v Napoli Pick: With Liverpool expected to move onto 9 points after their double header with Crvena Zvezda over the next couple of weeks, the pressure is on Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli.

They go into their double header with 3 points and 4 points respectively and these two matches could be key in determining who is able to move through to the Champions League Second Round. If one of these teams are able to win both games on Match Day 3 and 4 I would expect them to move through to the Last 16 and leave the losing team needing a lot of help.

One win each would likely keep them in touch with Liverpool but I don't think either manager is going to settle for that in what should be two very good games to watch.

Home advantage is going to be very important in both Group games and it is Paris Saint-Germain who have that edge on Match Day 3. This is a team who have scored at least three goals in 6 of their last 8 home Champions League games and Paris Saint-Germain have had some big wins over elite teams like Barcelona and Carlo Ancelotti's Bayern Munich.

That match fourteen months ago turned out to be the last one Ancelotti managed Bayern Munich so he will be looking for revenge. However his Napoli team have regularly found themselves coming up short in away games in Europe and I expect that to be the case on Wednesday when the visit the French capital.

It is rare to see Napoli beaten easily though and all 3 away Group defeats last season came by the same 2-1 scoreline. Earlier this season Napoli were beaten 3-1 at Juventus though and this Paris Saint-Germain team can be frightening going forward when they are at their best.

In 2018/19 they have tended to be at their best at home and I think Paris Saint-Germain win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.


Leipzig v Celtic PickThe last couple of years have seen Celtic negotiate the tough Champions League Qualifying Rounds to make it through to the Group Stage of that competition, but this year they are going to find it difficult to reach the Knock Out Rounds in the Europa League.

As soon as the draw was made it was clear Celtic were in for a real challenge to get out of a section containing Salzburg and Leipzig who both impressed in the Europa League Knock Out Rounds last season.

Celtic play with commitment and the tactics used by Brendan Rodgers means they will want to get on the front foot and cause problems for their hosts in this Group game. They have shown they can score goals even at the very best teams having done that in Paris against PSG last season and also leading at Salzburg in this Group.

However it is going to be very difficult to contain a team like Leipzig who have scored at least two goals in each of their last 4 home games and have unsurprisingly won 3 of those. Leipzig had also won 5 straight home games in Europe before losing 2-3 to Salzburg on Match Day 1 and this is a team with a lot more experience of playing in European competition compared with twelve months ago.

If you take away the Qualifying Rounds, Celtic have conceded three times in 4 of their last 5 European away games under Rodgers and that makes it tough to win games. I think Leipzig are going to prove to have too much firepower for the Scottish Champions in this fixture at home and I am going to back the Bundesliga club to cover the Asian Handicap.


Sporting v Arsenal PickThe hard work may already have been done by Arsenal as they bid to make it through to the Last 32 of the Europa League, but Unai Emery will want to wrap up a spot as soon as possible. That could be important with a very busy fixture list in the Premier League to come and so getting additional rest for key players is what Arsenal will be looking for.

Winning games against Vorskla and Qarabag are decent enough results for Arsenal but a trip to Sporting was looking like the toughest test in the Group as soon as the draw was made.

The form shown by Arsenal has been impressive and has to be the main reason they are such a short price to win in the Portuguese capital. However this is a fixture coming at a difficult time for The Gunners and it would not be a big surprise if a number of key players are rested for the Premier League game against Crystal Palace which is played on Sunday.

That will make Sporting an appealing price, but I also think the home team are being underestimated in this one. They have won 14 of their last 16 home games in all competitions and Sporting have also won 5 of their last 7 home Europa League games including beating Atletico Madrid here in the Quarter Final last season.

Arsenal have been scoring plenty of goals which makes them dangerous, but I think this is a very tough game for them if they are resting some of their key players. A draw would likely be a result that Unai Emery would accept right now knowing a home win against Sporting in two weeks time will see them control the Group, but I also think Sporting can cause plenty of problems for their visitors too.

Backing the home team to avoid a defeat looks tempting enough here.


Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux PickIn all of the European Groups being played this week it is clear that home form is going to be very important and determine which teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Rounds and which could miss out.

Over recent years Zenit St Petersburg have really taken that to heart and they have been very good in front of their own fans.

On Thursday Zenit St Petersburg could move into a very strong position in this Group if they can see off Bordeaux, but you do have to consider how much stock the club are putting into the Europa League. After eleven games in the Russian Premier League Zenit St Petersburg are leading the table by 6 points and winning the title is clearly the biggest ambition they will have this season.

Zenit St Petersburg can put the Europa League to the back of their mind if they can take 4 points from Bordeaux over the next couple of weeks though and I think the players will know that.

They are facing a team who have lost both games in this Group, albeit narrowly, and who have not travelled well in Europe outside of the early Qualifying Rounds. Bordeaux have been inconsistent domestically and have lost 3 of their last 5 away games in all competitions including a 2-0 defeat at Montpellier last weekend.

This is a long journey for a team from Western Europe to be making and I think it will be a forlorn one for Bordeaux. The home price is not exactly going to get the pulse racing, but Zenit St Petersburg should be too strong for Bordeaux and can pick up the three points here.


Zurich v Leverkusen Pick: Both Zurich and Bayer Leverkusen have won their opening two Europa League Group games which has put them in a very strong position in this section before of a double header against one another.

They have done it in contrasting fashion with Zurich winning both games 1-0, while Leverkusen have scored at least three times in their wins.

I can see this one developing into an attacking game with neither team having much to lose. Zurich will look to be defensively resolute but they are facing a higher quality opponent who are going to get forward and try and score goals. That may mean Zurich have some opportunities on the counter attack in this one, but it will be difficult to contain Leverkusen too and so goals looks to be the order of the day.

This past weekend Zurich drew 3-3 at home with Young Boys so Bayer Leverkusen will believe they can score goals here and I do think they share out at least three on the night.


Besiktas v Genk Pick: With a Group containing all four teams locked on three points the double headers on Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are going to be huge to begin separating the four teams.

That is certainly what Besiktas and Genk will feel with both teams looking to secure four points from the two games against each other to put themselves in a strong position in the section.

Home advantage should be a key factor in both of the games coming up over the next two weeks and this week it is Besiktas who have that edge.

I think that will be all important with Besiktas winning 8 of their last 11 home European games and I do think they will do enough to edge out a tough Genk outfit. Genk have to be respected having just a strong run of 20 wins from their last 23 games in all competitions, but they were beaten in Norway last time out against an out of form Sarpsborg team and this is a big step up against a club who reached the Last 16 of the Champions League a few months ago.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the best play with half the stake returned in the event of a draw and that is down to the respect that is offered to Genk. 


Chelsea v BATE Borisov Pick: The Europa League has not always been a competition Maurizio Sarri has taken really seriously, but he has seen his Napoli team have some success in it. There is an increased expectation on him at Chelsea as he looks to restore the club to the Champions League and early team selections in this Group suggests the Italian is keen to keep a second avenue into the Champions League alive.

Back to back wins to open the Group Stage has put Chelsea in a very strong position to make it through to the Last 32. Maurizio Sarri will be keen to wrap up that place over the next two weeks which means he can really pick weakened teams for the final two games in the Group and keep key players rested for the busy festive period to come in the Premier League.

Chelsea have not been dominant winners in either game they have played as far as the scoreboard has been concerned, but they have missed a host of chances.

On Thursday it is a chance for players to stake their claim in Sarri's plans for the months ahead as he will look to rotate his squad. Those players have yet to really impress as the manager would have liked, but Chelsea could prove to be far too strong for BATE Borisov if they can take the chances they are creating.

BATE Borisov remain the best team coming out of Belarus but they have struggled to compete with the stronger teams they tend to face in the Champions League or Europa League. The 1-4 home loss to PAOK on Match Day 2 has underlined that point and over the last twelve months BATE Borisov have lost heavily at FC Koln, Arsenal and PSV Eindhoven in European away games.

This is a big handicap for Chelsea to cover when you think of the chances they have missed in their previous two Europa League games which have both ended 1-0 to The Blues. However BATE Borisov have conceded at least three goals in each of the four games mentioned above and lost all of those games by at least three goal margins.

Chelsea can become the latest to record a big win over BATE Borisov and I think they will be able to do that on Thursday at Stamford Bridge. Eden Hazard won't be available by all accounts, but that should not matter for Chelsea this weekend and I think they cover the big Asian Handicap.


Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Pick: When the draw was this Europa League Group was made you would have thought Marseille and Lazio, two teams who reached at least the Quarter Final of the competition last season, would have been leading the way through to the Last 32.

Instead it is Eintracht Frankfurt who have won both games against those much fancied sides and now have a double header against the outsiders in the Group, Apollon.

The Cypriot side need to be respected having come from 0-2 down to earn a draw with Marseille on Match Day 2, but that was played at home and it is a real challenge for them when they visit Frankfurt.

Eintracht Frankfurt are just outside the elite teams in the Bundesliga, but they have scored plenty of goals in recent weeks and that makes them dangerous. The last three home games have all ended in wins and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 15 goals in those games with at least four scored in each one including in the 4-1 win over Lazio on Match Day 2.

There should be too much firepower for the home team again in this Europa League game and they will want to keep the momentum behind them having won 4 in a row in all competitions.

Apollon have lost 6 of their last 7 away Europa League games, although only two of those have come by two or more goals. However they needed an injury time goal to prevent that happening at Lazio on Match Day 1 and I think they struggle to contain their hosts here so backing Eintracht Frankfurt for a big win has to be the call.


Rangers v Spartak Moscow Pick: When the draw was made for the Europa League Group Stage it did look like a section in which Rangers would find it very difficult to move on to the Knock Out Rounds.

Steven Gerrard had already surpassed some expectations by taking Rangers through four Qualifying Rounds to make the Group, but the start made to the section will have the fans believing their European adventure is far from over.

Rangers have earned an important point in Spain against Villarreal and then came from behind to deservedly beat Rapid Vienna at Ibrox on Match Day 2. That means they come into this double header with Spartak Moscow on top of the Group and I do think they can continue the positive momentum with another win at home.

In recent games Rangers have been dominant at Ibrox Stadium with their last 5 wins coming during a period in which they have scored at least three goals in each victory. That is the kind of pressure that could crack Spartak Moscow, although the Russian club have a lot more experience in European Football in recent years compared with their hosts.

Spartak Moscow have underachieved in this Group so far and their continued struggles away from home in European competition cannot be ignored. Losing games at PAOK and Rapid Vienna should be a big disappointment for Spartak Moscow and they have won just 1 of their last 13 away European games.

One Russian club has already lost in this part of Glasgow and I think Rangers can win this fixture as long as they not distracted by the upcoming League Cup Semi Final to be played on Sunday. I don't think Steven Gerrard will be allowing that to happen and I do think Rangers current home form makes it hard to make a case against them continuing their positive run.

Of course their hosts are more experienced, but Spartak Moscow have conceded plenty of away goals in recent games and especially in European competition. Backing Rangers on the Asian Handicap will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw and I will back the home team in that market.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Club Brugge-Monaco Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 3 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Zurich-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Besiktas - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Eintracht Frankfurt - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rangers - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

October Update: 18-19-1, - 0.28 Units (74 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

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