NBA Picks October 2018 (October 16-21)

The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers were expected to compete in the NBA Finals back in June and after a long regular season following by a month of Play Off Basketball we did get to the Finals that most were looking forward to seeing.

Once again it was the Warriors who turned out to be far too good for the Cavaliers and they will go into the 2018/19 season as the favourites to win a fourth title in five season with a three-peat the expectation of the layers and the fans.

Getting out of the Western Conference may be the toughest task for the Warriors when it comes to repeating as Champions with the Houston Rockets a big threat at the top of the Conference. However I think Golden State are playing with the motivation to give the Oracle Arena the send off they want by adding another Championship before moving to San Francisco in the 2019/20 season and the Warriors look like this group of players are going to provide one more big effort together before potentially splitting apart in the next off-season.

Rumours abound that Kevin Durant and potentially Klay Thompson could leave the Warriors at the end of the season and there is no doubt the Warriors would be significantly weakened if that happens.

And perhaps that leaves the door open for the LA Lakers to fill the void at the top of the Western Conference.


The big news this summer was the decision made by LeBron James to move to the LA Lakers from the Cleveland Cavaliers which has really opened things up in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are clearly not the team to beat without James and the likes of the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors will believe they are set to make it to the NBA Finals.

I do like the Celtics who will have some real depth now that so many of their players have the experiences they earned last season after injuries decimated the roster. This time around Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving are back and Boston have a young and strong looking roster that should be able to come out of the Conference.

The 76ers and Raptors will have something to say about that, but it is very clear that the Eastern Conference is nowhere near as tough as the Western Conference this upcoming season. Whoever gets through to the NBA Finals will be an underdog against the Western Conference representative, although I do think the Boston Celtics will be able to provide a real challenge for any team they face in a best of seven Series as long as they stay healthier than last season.


LeBron James signing for the Lakers was a long rumoured move, but I am not sure he is going to be able to keep his sequence of NBA Finals appearances going now. The Lakers are someway short of the very best teams in the West and the signings they have made around James looks like a ticking time bomb in the 2018/19 season.

Instead the real focus will be seeing some of the younger players improve with the presence of James around them and snapping a five year absence from the Play Offs which just wouldn't have been considered a decade ago. At the end of the season I would expect the Lakers to make some big moves to bring in at least one huge name Free Agent to complement James and the young roster and maybe they will be a lot closer to returning to Championship contention in eighteen months from now.


Finally what of my New York Knicks- well I am expecting a top five Pick in the next Draft if I am being very honest. An injury to Kristaps Porzingis could see the young player miss the entire season and losing your best player before the season tips off shows how tough it is going to be.

Next season the Knicks will have cleared some space to add one or two big time Free Agents with rumours suggesting they will be putting a big deal together for Kevin Durant who has ties with the Knicks. Maybe the team will finally get back on a positive road, but we will have to suffer through a difficult season as fans of the Knicks.


The NBA Picks will begin on Tuesday as the regular season begins and I am going to continue the idea I had from last season to split the threads into weekly picks.

This week I will cover the games from Tuesday through to Sunday and then I will have a second thread which will cover the remainder of October. Keeping the threads shorter makes it easier for the reader as far as I am concerned and that is important.


Tuesday 16th October
One of the big news stories in the United Kingdom just hours before the first tip off of the regular season was Sky Sports had purchased the rights to show games from the NBA this year.

In recent years it has been BT Sport who have owned those rights, but those lapsed and for a while it looked like League Pass would be the only way to see live Basketball this season. Now we have at least five live games per week as well as the Play Off coverage at the end of the season, although personally I will keep hold of my League Pass so I can watch the teams I want to see more often than not.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Pick: There isn't much love lost between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics and the memory of the Eastern Conference Semi Final won't be far from the mind when they tip off the 2018/19 season.

Added to the intrigue is the departure of LeBron James from the Eastern Conference which means many are tipping one of these two teams to fill the void in the NBA Finals that is likely left by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Last season the Boston Celtics did overachieve when you think big Free Agent signing Gordon Hayward was lost in the very first game. Kyrie Irving was another who missed the Play Offs but I like the experience the younger players would have earned with their run to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now they have both Irving and Hayward back and a real depth to their squad which makes the Celtics the favourites to win the Eastern Conference.

The key for the Celtics is going to be adjusting to having a 'Big Three' with Irving, Hayward and Al Horford. While those players will be huge for Boston you also don't want to take away the minutes from some of the talented youngsters, although that won't be an issue early in the season when Hayward is being eased back into the starting line up on a minutes restriction.

Philadelphia took a big step in their development last season with the likes of Ben Simmons showing they are going to be a star in this League in the years ahead. It was a long 'process' for the 76ers but they are reaping the rewards now and will be looking to make a statement on the opening day of the 2018/19 season by knocking off an Eastern Conference rival on the road.

The 4-1 loss to Boston in the Play Offs would have hurt the 76ers who had been favoured in the first four games of that Series. The 76ers did win 50 regular season games last season which suggests they will be at the top of the Eastern Conference standings again, but the Celtics have a very strong recent record against Philadelphia and I think that could continue on the opening night.

Boston look deeper and being at home should give them the motivation to come through with a statement win to open the season. The mentality could be a bit different with Boston favoured unlike how it was in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against the 76ers and they have won fourteen of the last sixteen regular season games between these teams.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: It is 'ring night' at the Oracle Arena which will be hosting Golden State Warriors basketball for the final time this season before the team moves to a new venue in San Francisco. This Arena has been one of the loudest in the NBA, even during the Golden State lean years, and the Warriors players have made it clear they want to make it a memorable year for the loyal fans who have been behind them over the last forty years.

Creating a dynasty will also be on the minds of the Golden State Warriors who will be looking for a fourth title in five years as they go for the 'Three-peat' having swept the Cleveland Cavaliers for the NBA Championship in June.

The core of the team are together for this season and the signing of DeMarcus Cousins gives the Warriors another crease to their game. Cousins may not be available until he recovers from an achilles injury that prematurely ended his season last January, but this Golden State team looks strong in every position.

Any talk about Free Agency with both Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant expected to test that market in the summer of 2019 will be put aside as the Warriors look to seal their place in the NBA Finals out of a tough Western Conference.

One of their rivals could be the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they look weakened for the opening night game at the Oracle Arena. Andre Roberson has been ruled out and it looks like Russell Westbrook is going to be extremely limited at best which makes it tough to see the Thunder staying with Golden State in this game.

Th Thunder have to show a little more dynamism in the way their approach the Offensive side of the ball if they are going to get closer to the top teams in the Western Conference. They can be accused of being a little predictable and I do wonder if they are going to be able to stick with Golden State when the Warriors have what has become a patented surge during games.

Steve Kerr is looking for better Defensively from his Warriors than what they showed in the pre-season, while Durant has warned of not being distracted by the celebrations of the last title they won. The Warriors do look stronger than the Thunder going into the opening day though and I do like Golden State to find a way to pull away and cover this big number.

Golden State should be inspired by Durant to face his former team and the Warriors are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven at home against Oklahoma City. Overall it is 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven in favour of Golden State and they look a little healthier than Oklahoma City going into this game which means I favour them to produce a big win.


Wednesday 17th October
I am going to take a watching brief with the NBA games to be played on Wednesday as the majority of teams begin their new seasons.

I was tempted by a couple of teams, namely Cleveland and Sacramento with the points, but I am not completely convinced with those selections and so I will miss out on Wednesday and keep an eye on the way things go.

Check in on Thursday to see if there are any selections to be made from the three games set to be played.


Thursday 18th October
The underdogs have made a very strong start to the NBA season, but that is perhaps not a big surprise considering it is so early in the 2018/19 campaign and teams are still finding their feet.

Both teams I name checked yesterday would have come back as winners, but it is best to not worry too much about that now. I simply won't make a play unless I am completely happy with things and Cleveland only covered thanks to a late foul and Toronto deciding to run out the clock.

The underdogs could do well in the first two games to be played on Thursday, but I have a favourite selected for the late game.


LA Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Showtime is back in Los Angeles after the Lakers made the biggest splash of the summer by bringing in LeBron James from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It wasn't a surprising move in terms of what being in Los Angeles will give to James who has started his own production company and moving into movies with Space Jam 2 lined up for LeBron, taking over from Michael Jordan in the lead role.

However from a playing point of view it is a surprise that James did not think about joining a roster like the one that has been built in Boston or Philadelphia. LeBron James has been a feature of the NBA Finals over the last decade from his two stints with the Cleveland Cavaliers that sandwiched a run with the Miami Heat, but the LA Lakers have missed the Play Offs for five years in a row and look some way away from challenging the very best teams in the NBA.

Moving into the Western Conference for the first time is a huge challenge for LeBron whose teams have dominated the Eastern Conference. While there are some challengers in that Conference, there is no doubt at all that the West is far more powerful and the Lakers look a distance behind the likes of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

What would constitute a success for James and the Lakers? I think simply making the Play Offs would be huge, but this is a team with a mix of veterans and youth who have to learn to play together. It is definitely going to take time for the Lakers to find their groove, although the public are backing them heavily with the points in their opening game of the season.

I am going to oppose that when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers who are looking to rebound from an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA First Round of the Play Offs. They have kept their key players together though and that should mean the Trail Blazers are more likely to be settled into their roles in time for this one.

The attention may be on James and his first competitive game for the Lakers, but the building should be emotional as Portland play for the first time since Paul Allen passed away. Allen changed the fortunes of this franchise and you know the Portland players are going to be looking to play hard in memory of their owner.

Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should be able to dictate things from the back court in this one as they expose some of the holes in the Lakers roster which really isn't as strong outside of LeBron as they would like. Some of the younger players will be inspired by having The King on their team, but Portland will be playing with plenty of motivation and will be looking to introduce James to the tough Western Conference.

Portland are 22-9 against the spread in their last thirty-one home games against the Lakers and the favourite is 10-3 against the spread in the last thirteen in this series. With an emotional building behind them, Portland will feel they can extend their 19-6-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-six home games and I will back the Trail Blazers to get the better of the Lakers in this opening game for both teams.


Friday 19th October
The LeBron James era in Los Angeles began with a loss on Thursday which means he has now made his debut for a new team four times and lost each time despite a strong personal performance.

It will take time for the Lakers to really know how to get the best out of James and his supporting cast and I do think this team will look to make a big splash in Free Agency next season when they can be considered a genuine title contender.

This season may be all about improving the young players on the roster and getting some Play Off experience, but even that is going to be difficult in the tough Western Conference. LeBron is right, it will take time for the team to gel together, but the West doesn't offer many easy nights and I think the Lakers will struggle out of the gate and will need teams to have poor days from the field to win games.


Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pick: These two teams had contrasting opening game performances with the Charlotte Hornets coming up short against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic beating Florida rivals the Miami Heat. Both the Hornets and Magic were underdogs in their opening games, but more is expected from the Charlotte Hornets who are expected to challenge for Play Off spots in the weaker Eastern Conference.

That may be the goal for the Orlando Magic too if Steve Clifford is to be believed. The Head Coach believes he has the talent on the roster to surpass the expectations of Orlando having a transitional season, but this is a young team and that is going to come with the ups and downs that young players will have in a long season.

Clifford will have some extra motivation in this game as he faces his former team the Charlotte Hornets. He will look to inspire his players in a second home game of the season, but it will mean getting to grips with Kemba Walker who scored 41 points in the opening game defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Last season turned into an underachievement for the Hornets but they are not ready to reset on their current roster as highlighted by keeping hold of Walker. He could be a potential trade target if Charlotte are struggling in February and it was their 36-46 regular season record that saw the firing of Steve Clifford.

Tony Parker has been signed by Charlotte to offer a winning mentality to the group and he was a part of the huge comeback effort a couple of days ago against the Bucks. There was a disappointment that the Hornets allowed themselves to fall into a big hole before fighting back as they clawed back from a 20 point deficit in the Fourth Quarter to lose by a point.

That effort needs to be replicated from the off in this one and I do think the Hornets can bounce back against an opponent they have dominated in recent meetings. The arrival of Clifford as Head Coach of the Magic will help them prepare for this game with his knowledge of the Charlotte roster, but a young team will find it tough to find consistency and Orlando are 18-39 against the spread following a win.

Charlotte are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine against Orlando and they are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen in Orlando. I expect them to come out with more urgency from the off in this one and Charlotte can edge out Orlando in this one.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: Usually you would expect a home opener in a new season to be accompanied with fanfare and excitement, especially when it involves a team who made the Play Offs for the first time in thirteen seasons. The Minnesota Timberwolves also ended with their first winning season in that time at the end of the 2017/18 campaign, but a tough summer means there is going to be a slightly toxic atmosphere inside Target Center.

Jimmy Butler demanded a trade from the Timberwolves with accusations that his team-mates are not interested in winning. A couple of trades have since fallen apart and that means Butler remains on the roster with the fans ready to serenade him with boos in the home opener.

It is a stunning turn of events in Minnesota with the best player and the fans at odds with one another and it is clear that Butler is not getting along with the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Those two are likely to be the key pieces that Minnesota will look to build around, but the situation at this team won't be resolved until Butler is moved on.

Minnesota came up just short against the San Antonio Spurs in their opening game, but they have to ignore what is happening in the stands and try and focus on their basketball.

They can do that against the Cleveland Cavaliers who were blown out by the Toronto Raptors in their first game since LeBron James opted out of his contract and moved to the LA Lakers. There isn't much expectation in Cleveland and the pressure is on Kevin Love, a former Timberwolves player, to go back to the kind of basketball which made him such an attractive trade to the Cavaliers five years ago.

It will be tough on Love because the Cavaliers look like a roster that is going to have a hard time barring some big trades during the course of the season. Defensively they look like a team that will find it hard to shut down opponents and their shooting is not going to be as effective as when LeBron was playing for them and opening things up around the court.

Cleveland are 10-21 against the spread in their last thirty-one games against the Western Conference, while they have a miserable 14-40-2 record against the spread when losing a game by double digits. The recent visits to Minnesota have been better, but I think the Cavaliers will struggle to keep up with the scoring power of the home team.

There is the doubt of what the atmosphere is going to do to the players and whether they will wilt under that pressure. However Jimmy Butler is not someone who is going to be bothered by what people perceive him to be and I think he can lead the Timberwolves to a big home win and give the fans something to smile about as they leave the first game at the Target Center this season.

MY PICKS: 16/10 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/10 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/10 Portland Trail Blazers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/10 Charlotte Hornets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/10 Minnesota Timberwolves - 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

October Update: 2-1, + 0.82 Units (3 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)