Wednesday looked to be a pivotal day for the Tennis Picks this week and a strong return of 8-4 means the numbers are in a good place going into the Thursday Third Round matches at the Shanghai Masters.
The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.
I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.
Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.
Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.
I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.
Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.
De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.
It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.
Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.
Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.
He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.
The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.
Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.
For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.
Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.
His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.
As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.
This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)
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